Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
Prasanta Kumar Saha
Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, UK,
Chartered Statistician, UK.
Visiting Fellow of EWC, USA.
(Former) Additional Director General, GOI
E-Mail : prasant20012001@yahoo.co.in
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
INTRODUCTION
• POPULATION MAY BE TERMED AS A
MOST FASCINATING NATURAL
PHENOMENON ON MOTHER EARTH.
IT’S, PERHAPS, GOD’S MOST
BEAUTIFUL CREATION! SIMILARLY
THE EVENTS OF FERTILITY &
MORTALITY OF THE HUMAN BEINGS
AND THEREBY POPULATION GROWTH
ARE ALL PURELY NATURAL
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PHENOMENA.
Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
•
•
•
•
INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
CONCEPT OF POPULATION STABILIZATION
IS A VERY SOPHISTICATED AND SCIENTIFIC
CONCEPT.
MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE
CLEAR PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THIS
PHENOMENON.
IN INDIA SITUATION IS NOT ENCOURAGING.
IN THIS COUNTRY THIS CONCEPT IS QUITE
RECENT.
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE ISSUE OF POPULATION
STABILIZATION [PS] HAS RECEIVED
MORE ATTENTION SINCE LATE
NINETIES.
• THE PROCESS OF POLICY
FORMULATION ON FAMILY WELFARE
PROGRAM HAS PLACED SERIOUS
THOUGHT TO PS ISSUE IN
1996- 97 ALONG WITH RCH PROGRAM. 4
INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE TERM OF ‘POPULATION STABILIZATION’
AS SUCH HAD FIGURED IN THE POLICY
FORMULATION ON FAMILY WELFARE
PROGRAM IN 1996-97 IN THE DOCUMENT OF
RCH PROGRAM.
• AT THE END OF THE YEAR 2000 PS WAS
INTRODUCED AS A FULLFLEDGED POLICY IN
THE NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY-2000
[NPP2000] FORMULATED IN THE END OF 2000
BY THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
[DEPARTMENT OF FAMILY WELFARE,
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MINISTRY OF HEALTH & FW].
DEFINITION
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS A SCIENTIFIC
TERM. IN ESSENCE, IT IS A DEMOGRAPHIC
CONCEPT [ AS IT IS WELL KNOWN,
DEMOGRAPHY IS THE IMPORTANT BRANCH
OF THE STATISTICAL SCIENCE].
• AS PER DEMOGRAPHIC DEFINITION, BY
POPULATION STABILIZATION WE MEAN
CONSTANT BIRTH RATES AND CONSTANT
DEATH RATES IN THE SPECIFIC AGE
STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION OVER A
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PERIOD OF TIME.
DEFINITION-CONTD.
• MORE SPECIFICALLY, A POPULATION WILL BE
TERMED TO ATTAIN STABILITY IF IT ACHIEVES
REPLACEMENT LEVEL OF FERTILITY i.e. IF
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE [TFR]=2.1.
• THE PERCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD IS
GENERALLY NOT CATEGORICALLY DEFIEND
OVER WHICH AGE-SPECIFIC BIRTH RATES
AND DEATH RATES WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
SO THAT A POPULATION WILL BE DECLARED
TO HAVE ATTAINED STABILITY.
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
• THE TIME PERIOD OF PS AND THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF PS IS
DEPENDENT UPON
A)THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC
STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION.
B) DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION,THE
THEORY OF WHICH IS LINKED WITH
CLASSICAL INGREDIENTS OF
DEMOGRAPHIC MODERNIZATION.
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
C) CLASSICAL TRANSITION THEORY
[THOUGH IN SOME ENVIRONMENTS OR
REGIONS TRANSITION REMAINS A FUZZY
CONCEPT].
IF A POPULATION EXHIBITS CONSTANT AGE
SPECIFIC FERTILITY AND MORTALITY, THE
POPULATION WILL EVENTUALLY SHOW A
CONSTANT AGE DISTRIBUTION AND WILL
THEREAFTER INCREASE WITH
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CONSTANT GROWTH RATE.
DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS: THIS DEFINITION IS BASED ON A
NO. OF ASSUMPTIONS AS STATED BELOW:
1) FOR ANALYTICAL PURPOSE, FEMALE
POPULATION IS CONSIDERED AS IT PASSES
THROUGH A DEFINED INTERVAL OF FERTILE AGES
2)STOCHASTIC APPROACH: THAT A FEMALE CHILD
JUST BORN WILL SURVIVE UPTO CERTAIN AGE X, IS
ASSOCIATED WITH FIXED PROBABILITY, SAY, A(X).
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
3) STOCHASTIC APPROACH: THERE
ALWAYS EXISTS A PROBABILTY, SAY,
B(X) THAT A FEMALE WHO IS ALIVE AT
CERTAIN AGE X WILL BEAR A
FEMALE CHILD BETWEEN AGE X &
X+dX.
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
4) LET L IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE
RANGE OF AGES 0 TO L SO THAT AT
AGE L, A(X)=O. LET L1 & L2 ARE 2 AGES
SO THAT 0<L1<L2<L. THEN B(X)=0 WHEN
X<L1 AND X>L2 i.e. B(X)=0 OUTSIDE THE
INTERVAL (L1, L2). IN THIS CASE L2 IS
THE MAXIMUM REPRODUCTIVE AGE OF
A FEMALE.
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DEFINITION-CONTD.
ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD:
5) THE POPULATION IS CLOSED TO
MIGRATION.
• UNDER THIS THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AS
NARRATED ABOVE, THE OBJECTIVE OF THE
STABLE POPULATION MODEL IS TO FIND OUT
THE DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
POPULATION WHICH STARTS WITH A SPECIFIC
AGE STRUCTURE AND PASSES THROUGH A
SPECIFIC DEMOGRAPHIC PERIOD.
• AGE STRUCTURE OF A STABLE POPULATION IS
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THUS TIME INVARIANT.
Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
STABLE POPULATION MODEL:
• CONCEPT ORIGINATED IN 1911
[F. R. SHARPE & A. J. LOTKA].
• THE CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION OF
THIS MODEL IS AS FOLLOW:
 Exp[-rx] A(x)B(x) dx = 1, 0<x< t,
A(x) & B(x) have been defined earlier
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD:
LET B = INTRINSIC BIRTH RATE IN
STABLE POPULATION. THEN,
1
B = -----------------
 Exp[-rx] A(x) dx
Where 0 < X < 
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD:
Let Pt = Proportion of Stable Population
at time t.
Then , Pt = B Exp[-rt]A(t).
r= Rate of Growth of a stable population.
AT THE END OF A GENERATION, A
STABLE POPULATION WILL BE
LARGER BY A MAGNITUDE WHICH IS
EQUAL TO NET REPRODUCTIVE RATE
[NRR].
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IMPORTANT FEATURES OF A STABLE
POPULATION:
• INDIA: POLICY DECISION OF THE
GOVERNMENT IS THE DETERMINANT OF
FERTILITY IN CONTRAST TO MANY
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WHERE
INDIVIDUAL COUPLES ACT PRIMARILY IN
THEIR OWN INTEREST.
• CONCEPT OF POPULATION CONTROL IS
YET TO BE EMBEDDED WITH THE CULTURE
OF THE PEOPLE PARTICULARLY IN THE
RURAL INDIA.
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IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• DURING LAST ABOUT ONE DECADE
MANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVE
ACHIEVED STABLE POPULATION.
• INDIA HAS TO WAIT A VERY LONG
PERIOD OF AT LEAST ANOTHER 4
DECADES TO ACHIEVE IT. THAT ALSO
DEPENDS ON MANY UNPREDICTABLE
FACTORS.
• AS PER NATIONAL POPULATION
POLICY 2000 [NPP200] , INDIA MAY
EXPECT POPULATION STBILIZATION
BY 2045. THUS THE COUNTRY IS TO
WAIT FOR ABOUT A CENTURY AFTER
HER INDEPENDENCE TO HOPE FOR
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ACHIEVEING THIS.
IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• THERE ARE DEARTH OF DETAILED
STUDIES OR SERIOUS RESEARCH IN
THE SUBJECT OF POPULATION
STABILIZATION IN INDIA.
• THEREFORE NO RELEVANT REFERENCE
MATERIALS FOR PROVIDING PRACTICAL
GUIDANCE ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
POPULATION STABILIZATION
TECHNIQUES IS AVAILABLE.
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• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS NOT A
SIMPLE ISSUE. RATHER IT IS A
COMPLICATED SUBJECT DEPENDING
ON SOCIAL, ECONOMICAL,
DEMOGRAPHIC, POLITICAL,
RELIGIOUS AND OTHER FACTORS.
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IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD:
• THE PROCESS OF ACCEPTANCE OF
CONTRACEPTIVES BY THE PEOPLE IS
ABSOLUTELY VOLUNTARY. THIS
STATE OF AFFAIRS DOES NOT
PROVIDE CLEAR-CUT ENCOURAGING
TREND AND DOES NOT EXHIBIT A
VERY DEPENDABLE BEHAVIOUR
TOWARDS ACHIEVING PS.
• THIS CULTURE DOES NOT GIVE A
FILLIP TOWARDS A FASTER PROCESS
OF STABILIZATION.
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
POPULATION OF INDIA DURING 1951-2001
POPLN[MILN]
361
439
1500
1000
548
500
683
0
1
846
1027
POPULATION-INDIA
POPLN[MILN]
YEAR
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Populn[Milln]
2
3
4
5
6
YEAR
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
TFR OF INDIA DURING 1951-2001
YEAR TFR
TFR-INDIA
1951 6.0
8
6
1961 5.5
4
2
1971 5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1981` 4.5
YEAR
1991 3.8
2001 3.0[Estimated]
TFR
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
TFR
Series2
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION:
• POPULATION STABILIZATION ISSUE IS A
QUITE COMPLICATED ISSUE.
• IN A SOCIETY LIKE INDIA EMBRACING
VOLUNTARY APPROACH TOWARDS FAMILY
PLANNING, IT IS A MATTER OF HIGH
SPECULATION WHETHER THE COUNTRY
WILL ULTIMATELY ACHIEVE A STABLE
POPULATION BY THE YEAR 2045 AS
MENTIONED IN THE NATIONAL POPULATION
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POLICY 2000.
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• EVEN THE POPULATION TOUCHES THE
THRESHOLD OF STABILITY AFTER 4
DECADES FROM NOW, BY THAT TIME
ABOUT 700 MILLION PEOPLE MAY GET
ADDED [ ESTIMATING BY DETERMINISTIC
PROJECTION METHOD WITH MODEST
GROWTH RATES VARYING FROM 1.1% TO
ABOUT 1.7% DURING THE FOUR DECADES].
THUS BY THE YEAR 2045 THE POPULATION
MAY BE ABOUT 1700 MILLION [THIS
ESTIMATION PERTAINS ENTIRELY TO THIS
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AUTHOR].
Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
TOWARDS STABILIZATION PROCESS
BECOMES TOO TOUGH IN VIEW OF
VOLUNTARY APPROACH ON THE ONE
HAND AND VERY LOW
CONTRCEPTIVE PREVALENCE RATE
[ ABOUT 45%] ON THE OTHER.
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Population Stabilization Issues:
Specific Reference to India
CONCLUSION-CONTD:
• ONE ‘GOOD’ ASPECT OF THE
PRESENT HIGH POPULATION
ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH GROWTH
RATE IS THAT INDIA WILL, PERHAPS,
NEVER FACE THE PROBLEM LIKE
DEPOPULATION OR DEEQUILIBRIUM
IN HER DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN.
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THANKS
Prasanta
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