The human population
and its impact
Ch. 6
Quick Write – Core Case Study pg. 122
Answer in complete and well thought out sentences
1.Describe the three factors have lead to the rapid
increase in population growth?
2.Look at figure 6-1. In about 1,000AD there was a drop
in population growth that nearly wiped out the human
population. Give a logical explanation as to what
might have had this effect on our population.
3.Doubling time means how fast (number of years) the
population doubles in size. What was the doubling time
between 1 billion to 2 billion people? 2 billion to 4
billion? 4 to 8 billion (if 8 billion is reached in 2025 as
estimated by the UN)?
National Geographic – 7 Billion
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0
Current population growth trends
The world’s population is currently growing about
1.2% per year.
This adds about 3 people every second.
 count to 10.
About how many
people have been
born in that time?
Calculating Population Growth
1.If the population was at 50,0000 and grew at
a rate of 1.2% per year, what would the
population be the following year?
2.If the population was at 7 billion and grew at
a rate of 1.2% per year, what would the
population be the following year?
Calculating Population Growth
3. If the population was at 50,000 and grew
at a rate of 50% per year, what would the
population be the following year?
4. If the population was at 50,000 and grew
at a rate of 100% per year, what would
the population be the following year?
Developed vs. Developing Country
Developing countries are defined according to
their Gross National Income (GNI) per capita
per year. (how much money is made per
person)
Countries with a GNI of US$ 11,905 and less are
defined as developing (specified by the World
Bank, 2012).
Developing vs. Developed Countries
Lower standards of
Higher standards of
living
living
Small economy
Large economy
Ex: Egypt, Pakistan,
Ex: Sweden, Germany,
Ukraine, Mexico, Turkey, Ireland, Canada, New
Brazil, South Africa, India, Zealand, Australia, USA
Argentina, Afghanistan,
CHINA
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
Global village of 100 people
50 males
50 females
61 Asians
(19 from China 18 from India)
15 Africans
10 Europeans
9 South American
5 North Americans (including the most
powerful man, the US President)
Global village of 100 people
26 would be under 14 years old (pre-reproductive
stage)
8 are 65 years and over (post-reproductive stage)
66 between the ages of 14 and 65 (reproductive stage)
Global village of 100 people
82 would be from less developed countries with an
average income of US$ 5,440 in a year ($15 a day), but
51 of those would live on less than $2 a day
18 would be from
developed countries
with an average income
of US$ 32,470 in a year
($90 a day)
Global village of 100 people
40 would lack access to basic sanitation and 13
would lack access to safe drinking water.
There would be 77 mobile phones, but
unequally distributed, some would have 2 or
more cell phones, other none.
33 would be Internet users, 15 would have
Internet access from home and 12 would be
active users of Facebook.
Global village of 100 people
17 would be overweight
13 would suffer from malnutrition.
10 would have no job
11 would have cars or light trucks
7 would be unable to read and write (age 15 and over)
7 would have a college education.
Half of the entire village's wealth would be in the hands
of only 6 people, and most of them would be citizens of
the United States.
In general…
The global wealth and resources are pretty
unevenly distributed.
If you live in the United States, you have it
pretty well off compared to others around the
world.
Warm Up 11/18/2014
1.There are 7 million people in the world. If the
population grew at a rate of 1.2% how many people
would be added to the population over 13 years?
2. What are three population growth trends occurring in
the world right now?
3. What is the difference between developed and
developing countries? What % of the world is
developed? Developing?
4.What are the two most populous countries in the world?
3 Population Growth Trends
1.Overall the world population growth has
slowed down (currently about 1.2%)
2.Population growth is unevenly distributed
around the world.
Of the new 84 million people in 2012, 2% were
from developed countries and 98% were from
developing countries.
Three most populous countries are:
China (19%), India (18%), United States(5%)
3 Population Growth Trends
3. People are moving from rural to urban
areas.
• More than half of
the world’s
population now
live in urban
areas (cities).
• 21 mega cities
with over 10
million people
How many people can the earth support?
What is the carrying capacity of the
earth?
A BETTER QUESTION WOULD BE:
What is the cultural carrying capacity?
Cultural Carrying Capacity
The number of people who can live in
reasonable freedom and comfort without
decreasing the
ability of the
earth to sustain
future generations
Measuring Population Growth
How can we calculate population change?
Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
Calculating total births and deaths is a large number.
Crude birth rate – number births per 1,000 people
Crude death rate – number deaths per 1,000
people
Measuring Population Growth
Fertility Rate – how many children are born
in a population over a set period of time.
1.Replacement fertility rate-
the average number of
children parents must
have to replace
themselves and the
whole population.
Replacement Fertility Rate
Globally, this number is slightly higher than 2
children per couple.
WHY do you think this is?
About 2.1
children/woman in
developed countries
About 2.5
children/woman in
developing countries
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to
a women in her reproductive years.
Between 1955 and 2012 (57 years):
In more-developed countries TFR dropped from 2.8 to 1.6
In less- developed countries TFR dropped from 6.2 to 2.5
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The world population is still growing
exponentially, But what are some things you
think may have contribute to a slowing down of
the world’s population growth?
Open to page S44 and S45 in the supplement
section towards the back of the book.
Fertility Rate Factors
1 Child labor force
In less developed countries children are uses to
help with field work, tending live stock, hauling
water, cooking etc.
Fertility Rate Factors
2 Cost of raising and educating children
In developed
countries children do
not enter the work
force until their late
teens or twenties.
It cost about $235,000
- $304,000 to raise a
middle class child
from birth to age 18.
Fertility Rate Factors
3 Number of Infant deaths
In countries with poor sanitation, lack of nutrition and
health care there is a higher rate of infant mortality.
Therefore women tend to have
more babies within their life time.
In 1960 the women in Bangladesh
had 7 children on average!
Fertility Rate Factors
3 Number of Infant deaths
In countries with low infant death
rates women tend to have less
children because their children live
through infancy.
Average of 4 million infants die
a year from ‘preventable’ causes
(average of 11,000 per day)
Fertility Rate Factors
4 Life Expectancy
The average number of years a person would be
expected to live.
Global life expectancy has increase from 48 years
to 70 years.
In countries with longer life spans and fewer infant
mortalities women tend to have less children
Average USA life span is 79 years old.
Fertility Rate Factors
5 Women Empowerment
Women with access to education and work
opportunities tend to have less children
Women without a high school education and
opportunities outside of the house tend to have more
than two children
Fertility Rate Factors
5 Woman Empowerment
In Africa, Latin America and Asia, women do 60-80% of
work associated with growing food, gathering, hauling
wood and water.
Most of this is unpaid work!
Globally 300 million school aged girls do NOT attend
school (3 times the entire USA population) and cannot
read or write.
As women become empowered they take charge of
their life and reproductive behavior
Fertility Rate Factors
6 Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms
In some cultures having a large family is
encouraged!
 Ex: Muslims believe Allah, their god, wants them
to have many children
Fertility Rate Factors
7 Average age of marriage and family planning
In developed countries women get married at a
older age and have education in family planning.
The availability of abortions and reliable birth
control allows women to control the number of
children they have.
Each year about 210 million women become
pregnant and about 42 million have abortions (22
million legally and 20 million illegally) according
to the World Health Organization.
Warm Up 11/19/2014
1. What is cultural carrying capacity?
2. What is the difference between birth rate and
crude birth rate?
3. Explain the measurement of fertility rate and the
two types of fertility rates.
4. What is the estimated growth rate of the human
population today?
5. Name 3 factors that impact fertility rates and
human population growth and explain how they
do so.
Fertility Rate Factors
1.Child labor
2.Cost of raising and educating a child
3.Infant mortality
4.Life Expectancy
5.Woman Empowerment
6.Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural
norms
7.Age of marriage and family planning
Article Discussion
On the back of your article, summarize the main
points and topics in 5-10 sentences.
Explain your article to your neighbor and discuss
the questions you answered last night.
(3 minutes each)
Create two questions pertaining to your
neighbor’s article, that you would like to know
more about.
Reflect. What do you personally think, feel or
believe about the moral, ethical, social or legal
ways population growth and fertility rates have
been dealt with by both Afghanistan and China.
Fertility Rate Articles
Afghanistan
China
Read the article and underline or highlight the main ideas.
Answer the following in complete and well thought sentences:
1.How has this country tried to regulate their
population growth?
2.What have been the results of their efforts?
3.Do agree or disagree with their methods? Why?
China’s One Child Policy
Put into effect in 1979, Chinese families were only
allowed to have one child.
This was in response to a famine that occurred in
the 1970’s due to a rapid population growth rate.
At that time fertility rate was about 7.5
China
Consequences of One-Child Policy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0BPWFnL_jY
Forced Abortion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjtuBcJUsjY
Thinking Points
What benefits have come from China’s one
child policy.
What problems have come, and are expected
to come, from China’s effort to control it’s
population.
Do you think China should keep their onechild policy? Why?
Afghanistan/Islam
Birth rate is around 5.5 children per woman.
Dude to low sanitation and health care many children
and woman may die during or shortly after childbirth.
Tradition, culture and religion (Islam) contribute to high
fertility rates.
Map and Data Analysis
Open to page S44 and S45 in the
supplement section towards the back
of the book.
Look at all three maps.
Discuss with your neighbor the
answers to the questions under each
map.
Effect of Age Structure on Population Growth
Age structure – the number or percent of
males and females in young, middle and
older age groups.
Pre-reproductive (0-14)
Reproductive (15-44)
Post-reproductive (over 45)
Effect of Age Structure on Population Growth
Age structure can be used to predict the future
population growth of that country.
Important factors of age structure:
Number and proportion of individuals in each
age group.
The number of males versus the number of
females in each age group.
Age Structure Diagrams
From the age structure data, a diagram can be
created to help predict the future growth of a
population
Age Structure Diagrams can tell you:
1.If a population is increasing, stable or shrinking
2.Population growth momentum- even if people
are having less children, the effect won’t take
place until much later when the children reach
reproductive maturity
There are three scenarios:
1. Expanding/growing population- pyramid
shape, has more children than any other age
group.- Nigeria, Kenya, United States
2. Stable populations- Number of children is
roughly the same as the number of reproductive
adults- European countries
3. Declining population- diamond shape,
Pre-reproductive group is smaller that the elder Russia, Bulgaria and Germany
USA
Mexico
Population increases but it is predicted to
stabilize
Finland
What do you predict to
happen to Germany’s
population in 45 years?
2010
United States Age Structure Diagram
Over Population
From what you have learned in class so
far, do you think our world is
overpopulated? (over populated as in we
have overstepped the carrying capacity
of the world and will eventually
experience a population crash.)
Why do you think this?
“Don't Panic - The Truth
About Population'”
TED Talk by a Swedish Medical doctor Hans Rosling
 TED Talk booklet.
Cover page – title and picture with color
20 facts (we will finish this on Monday)
 Reflection (we will do this at the end on Monday)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd7K4cgrjng
Demography
the study of statistics such as births,
deaths, income, or the incidence of
disease, which illustrate the changing
structure of human populations
Demographic Transition Model
(DTM)
The transition from high birth and death
rates to low birth and death rates as a
country develops from a pre-industrial to
an industrialized economic system.
Four Stages of Demographic Transition
Stage 1 – Pre-modern or pre-industrialization – High birth
and high death rates.
Stage 2 – Urbanization/ Industrialization - death rates
decline rapidly as health care is improved. Birth rates
stay about the same. Population undergoes rapid
population growth.
Stage 3 – Mature Industrialization – Birth and death rates
are both decreasing as health care and technology
improve and life spans increase.
Stage 4 – Post Industrialization – Birth and death rates
even out and the population growth slows down.
Stage 5 Estimated…
Decline
Death rates stay about the same as birth rates
decline
We are just beginning to see this in European
Countries and don’t fully know the effects.
Population Calculations
Birth or Death Rates
Population Growth Rate
Doubling time
Population density
Calculating Birth / Death Rate
# of births or deaths per year
Total Population
Calculating Population Growth Rate
What factors account for change in
population size?
Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
Population growth rate – the rate of
increase of the population per year.
Growth rate =
(births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
Total Population
Calculating Doubling Time of a Population
If a population is growing exponentially at a
constant rate there is an easy rule to go by…
The rule of 70:
Population Doubling Time: _________70%_______
% Population growth
OR _________0.7_______
Population growth (as decimal)
Calculating Population Density
Population Density – the number of people in a
given area
Pop. Density= Population
Area size
Number of people per square Mile:
New York, N.Y.: 27,012.4
San Francisco, Calif.: 17,179.2
Warm Up 11/19/2014
1. What is cultural carrying capacity?
2. What is the difference between birth rate and
crude birth rate?
3. Explain the measurement of fertility rate and the
two types of fertility rates.
4. What is the estimated growth rate of the human
population today?
5. Name 3 factors that impact fertility rates and
human population growth and explain how they
do so.
Fertility Rate Factors
1.Child labor
2.Cost of raising and educating a child
3.Infant mortality
4.Life Expectancy
5.Woman Empowerment
6.Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural
norms
7.Age of marriage and family planning
Article Discussion
On the back of your article, summarize the main
points and topics in 5-10 sentences.
Explain your article to your neighbor and discuss
the questions you answered last night.
(3 minutes each)
Create two questions pertaining to your
neighbor’s article, that you would like to know
more about.
Reflect. What do you personally think, feel or
believe about the moral, ethical, social or legal
ways population growth and fertility rates have
been dealt with by both Afghanistan and China.
Afghanistan/Islam
Birth rate is around 5.5 children per woman.
Dude to low sanitation and health care many children
and woman may die during or shortly after childbirth.
Tradition, culture and religion (Islam) contribute to high
fertility rates.
China
Consequences of One-Child Policy (4 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0BPWFnL_jY
Forced Abortion (3 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjtuBcJUsjY
Thinking Points
What benefits have come from China’s one
child policy.
What problems have come, and are expected
to come, from China’s effort to control it’s
population.
Do you think China should keep their onechild policy? Why?
Effect of Age Structure on Population Growth
Age structure – the number or percent of
males and females in young, middle and
older age groups.
Pre-reproductive (0-14)
Reproductive (15-44)
Post-reproductive (over 45)
Effect of Age Structure on Population Growth
Age structure can be used to predict the future
population growth of that country.
Important factors of age structure:
Number and proportion of individuals in each
age group.
The number of males versus the number of
females in each age group.
Age Structure Diagrams
From the age structure data, a diagram can be
created to help predict the future growth of a
population
Age Structure Diagrams can tell you:
1.If a population is increasing, stable or shrinking
2.Population growth momentum- even if people
are having less children, the effect won’t take
place until much later when the children reach
reproductive maturity
There are three scenarios:
1. Expanding/growing population- pyramid
shape, has more children than any other age
group.- Nigeria, Kenya, United States
2. Stable populations- Number of children is
roughly the same as the number of reproductive
adults- European countries
3. Declining population- diamond shape,
Pre-reproductive group is smaller that the elder Russia, Bulgaria and Germany
USA
Mexico
Population increases but it is predicted to stabilize
Finland
2010
 http://lhsapes.weebly.com/uploads/3/2/3/9/3239894/modeling_exponenti
al_growth.pdf
 http://lhsapes.weebly.com/unit-6-human-populations-and-urbanenvironments.html
 http://lhsapes.weebly.com/unit-6-human-populations-and-urbanenvironments.html