Developed By: Dr. Don Smith, P.E. Department of Industrial Engineering Texas A&M University College Station, Texas Executive Summary Version Chapter 1 Foundations Of Engineering Economy Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-1 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved LEARNING OBJECTIVES 1. Questions 7. Symbols 2. Decision making 8. Spreadsheet functions 3. Study approach 9. Minimum attractive rate of return 4. Interest rate 5. Equivalence 6. Simple and compound interest Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 10.Cash flows 11.Doubling time 12.Spreadsheets 1-2 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1: Why Engineering Economy is Important to Engineers Engineers “design” and create Designing involves economic decisions Engineers must be able to incorporate economic analysis into their creative efforts Often engineers must select and execute from multiple alternatives A proper economic analysis for selection and execution is a fundamental aspect of engineering Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-3 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Engineering Economy The art and science that involves: Formulating, Estimating and Evaluating economic outcomes Always concerned with the selection and possible execution of alternatives given the economic parameters associated with the project Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-4 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.2 Role of Engineering Economy in Decision Making Decision making involves the estimation of future events/outcomes Engineering economy aids in quantifying past outcomes and forecasting future outcomes Engineering Economy provides a framework for modeling problems involving: Time Money Interest rates Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-5 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved The Decision Making Process 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Understand the problem – define objectives Collect relevant information Define the set of feasible alternatives Identify the criteria for decision making Evaluate the alternatives and apply sensitivity analysis 6. Select the “best” alternative 7. Implement the alternative and monitor results Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-6 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Time Value of Money All firms make use of investment of funds Investments are expected to earn a return Investment involves money Money possesses a “time value” The “time value” of money is the most important concept in engineering economy Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-7 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.3 Performing An Engineering Economy Study Engineering Economy Studies: Define Alternatives Do-nothing alternative – maintain the status quo Define feasible alternatives – that can solve the problem Define/estimate the current and future cash flows Perform the analysis Apply the tools and methods of engineering economy Selection of the best alternative Implement and monitor Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-8 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.4 Interest Rate and Rate of Return Interest – the manifestation of the time value of money Rental fee that one pays to use someone else’s money Difference between an ending amount of money and a beginning amount of money Interest rate (%) = Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 interest accrued per time unit x 100% original amount 1-9 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Rate of Return Interest earned over a period of time is expressed as a percentage of the original amount, specifically; interest accrued per time unit Rate of return (%) = x 100% original amount Borrower’s perspective – interest rate paid Lender’s perspective – interest rate earned Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-10 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.5 Equivalence Different sums of money at different times may be equal in economic value $106 one year from now 0 Interest rate = 6% per year 1 $100 now $100 now is said to be equivalent to $106 one year from now, if the $100 is invested at the interest rate of 6% per year. Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-11 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.6 Simple and Compound Interest Simple Interest: Interest = (principal)(number of periods)(interest rate) Compound Interest: Interest earns interest on interest Compounds over time Interest = (principal + all accrued interest) (interest rate) Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-12 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.7 Terminology and Symbols P = a present sum of money at a time designated as t = 0 { t represents time} F = a future amount of money at some point in time later than t = 0 A = a series of equal, end-of-period cash flows n = the number of interest periods i = the interest rate or rate of return per time period, in percent Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-13 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.8 Introduction To Solution By Computer Application of Microsoft’s Excel© spreadsheet program Excel financial functions Present Value P: =PV(i%,n,A,F) Future Value F: =FV(i%,n,A,P) Equal, periodic value: =PMT(i%,n,P,F) No. of periods: =NPER((i%,A,P,F) Compound interest rate: =RATE(n,A,P,F) Compound interest rate: =IRR(first_cell:last_cell) Present value of a series: =NPV(i%,second_cell:last_cell) + first_cell Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-14 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.9 Minimum Attractive Rate of Return Investors expect to earn a return on their investment (commitment of funds) over time We expect to see economic efficiencies greater than 100% A profitable investment should earn (return) funds in excess of the investment amounts Economic projects should earn a reasonable return, which is termed: MARR – Minimum attractive rate of return Also termed the “hurdle” rate for an investment Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-15 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved The MARR The MARR is established by the financial managers of the firm The MARR is expressed as a percent value Most, if not all, projects should earn at a rate equal to or greater than the established MARR MARR’s are set based upon: The cost of all types of capital Allowance for risk Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-16 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Types of Financing Equity Financing – the firm uses funds either from retained earnings, new stock issues, or owner’s infusion of money Debt Financing – the firm borrows funds from outside sources The cost of debt financing = the interest rate charged on the debt (loan) amounts The MARR is approximated from the weighted average cost of all sources of capital to the firm A firm’s ROR > MARR > cost of capital Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-17 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.10 Cash Flows: Their Estimation and Diagramming Definition of terms Cash Inflows - amount of funds flowing into the firm Cash Outflows – amount of funds flowing out of the firm Net Cash Flow equals cash inflows – cash outflows Assumption for analysis – end of period Funds flow at the end of a given (interest) period Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-18 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Cash Flow Diagrams A typical cash flow diagram might look like: 1. Draw a time line 0 1 2 … … … n-1 n One time period 2. Show the cash flows Always assume end-of-period cash flows! 0 1 2 … … … n-1 n Cash flows are shown as directed arrows (+ for up or – for down) --(+) inflow; (-) outflow Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-19 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.11 Rule of 72: Estimating Doubling Time or Interest Rate Common question: Estimate the number of time periods it takes for a cash flow to double in size Given an interest rate i% per period The approximate time n for an investment at time t = 0 to double in value is given by: n = 72/i e.g., $10,000 at 7% per year doubles to $20,000 in 10.3 years Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-20 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Sct 1.12 Spreadsheet Application Reference Example 1.18 Design a spreadsheet model to evaluate this project Illustrates simple interest, compound interest and inflation Focus on the overall design of the model and the associated formatting Check appendix A for hints, formats, formulas to use a spreadsheet effectively Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-21 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Chapter Summary Engineering Economy – application of economic factors and criteria to evaluate alternatives Applies the time value of money Application of economic equivalence Introduction of the MARR Cash flow estimation Modeling – cash flow diagrams Difficulties in estimation Perspectives – viewpoints taken Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-22 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved End of Slide Set Slide Sets to accompany Blank & Tarquin, Engineering Economy, 6th Edition, 2005 1-23 © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved