Sustainable Development:
Why the Focus on
Population?
Dr. Maria Sophia Aguirre
Department of Business and Economics
The Catholic University of America
University of Virginia
October 3, 2004
Can the Earth Sustain More People?
 Population is a problem, therefore they answer no:
 The earth is limited -- the more we are, the poorer we
will be.
 The family is a hostile place for woman and children.
Therefore it has to be monitored and regulated by
international laws and institutions if poverty among
women is to be eradicated.
 Population threatens government stability in developing countries
 Population is a solution, therefore they answer yes:
 Healthy families are needed for the economy to fulfill
its purpose: Cover basic needs, generate profits, and
contribute towards the wellbeing of people
 Numbers in themselves do not equal poverty; rather,
poorly structured families and societies as well as
economies foster poverty.
How People Perceive the Issue
of Population is Critical
 It is by these perceptions that international
and national legislative policies are
formulated, and local medical plans and sex
education classes are designed.
 Thus, it is equally critical that people
ensure that their perceptions are grounded,
not in rhetoric and emotions, but in
established scientific and empirical data.
Sustainable Development
 It is a policy approach that has gained popularity
in recent years, especially in international circles.
 The UN and Bretton Woods institutions have
taken an active role in defining “sustainable
development.”
 By attaching a “population problem” stand they
have made population control its implicit
meaning.
 Therefore, population policies have become the
primary tool used to ‘promote’ economic
development and to protect the environment.
I Would Like to Argue
 The focus on family and population is not necessarily
incorrect, but both the population control policies used and
the approach of some international organizations to the family
in the past twenty some years are mistaken.
 This is so because:
 Healthy families are essential for poverty reduction as they
have a direct impact on the quality of human, moral, and
social capital, and therefore, on the resources and the
purpose of economic activity and structures.
 Resources are use inefficiently as they are directed towards
initiatives that weaken families and divert resources from
initiatives that will address effectively weak social and
economic structures. This, in turn, hampers real economic
growth and perpetuates poverty.
On this point, I have good company
Nobel Laureate, 1992
 “No discussion of human capital can omit the influence of
families on the knowledge, skills, values, and habits of their
children and therefore on their present and future
productivity.” Becker (1991)
Nobel Laureate, 1998
 “The human development approach must tale full note of the
robust role of the human capital, while at the same time
retaining clarity about what the ends and means respectively
are. What needs to be avoided is to see human beings as
merely means of production and material prosperity.” Sen
(1994)
Players and Perspectives
in the Debate
 The Population Control Perspectives
 The Women's Rights Perspective
 The Children's Rights Perspectives
 Sexual and Reproductive Rights
Perspective
 The Gender Perspective
1. The Population Control Argument
 First: rapid growth in population means the spread of poverty
and aggravates conditions such as as poor health, malnutrition,
illiteracy, and unemployment (Bucharest, 1974)
 Second: population threatens government stability in developing
countries, and encourages confrontation between developed
and developing countries (Memorandum 200)
 Third: it pushes future generations to scarcity, and an
unsustainable environment carrying capacity (Rio, 1992)
 Fourth: it sees population growth to be symptomatic of the
larger problem of women's oppression—the more children a
woman has, the less opportunity she has for her own selfactualization and development (Cairo, 1994 and Beijing, 1995)
2. The Women's Rights Perspectives
 Family is seen as a factor
that oppresses and
subordinates women socially
because children curtails
the mother’s development.
 Access to 'reproductive
information and services'
frees women from this
situation, since ignorance
makes women have more
children than they desire.
 Women have the right to be
women, whether they work in
the home or outside of it.
Motherhood and the family do
not oppress women, but rather
offer women fuller expression.
 Women become a policy tool,
by reducing them to their
reproductive and sexual traits
or capacities, they fail to
recognize the fullest
dimensions of women
3. The Children's Rights Perspectives
 Normal perspective: holds children as the recipients of parental
protection and guidance. Parents held their rights in their stead
until they grew out of minority status.
 Recent perspective: wishes to endow children with greater
autonomy, regardless of age, and argues that these autonomous
children hold certain rights over and against their parents.
 Both views are present in the 1989 Convention on the Rights of
the Child.
 The Recent perspective:



seriously challenges the parental rights recognized by the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights
drives a wedge in the parent-child relationship by setting parent
and child on equal footing
neglects any understanding of an organic relationship of parents
and children.
4. Arguments for Sexual and
Reproductive Rights
 Reproductive Health
 An individual Good
 Population Stabilization
 A Common Good
A. Reproductive Health: An Individual Good
 It is an end in its own right and a ‘foundation stone’
to achieve women’s empowerment, education and
health. Thus education and its promotion is for the
individual good.
 Reproductive health and universal access to
contraception are integral to achieve equality
between men and women
 Therefore, it is the responsibility of the government
to ensure the universal exercise of this human right
B. Reproductive Health: A Common Good
 It is a foundation stone of prosperity and better quality
of life for all people. They are essential to achieve
‘sustainable development.’
 The global and national needs are sustainable
development and environmental preservation, and
people are the most important threat.
 ‘Accordingly, global and national needs coincide with
personal rights and interests’ (UNFPA’98)
 The assumption underlying this argument is the
Malthusian Theory of population and resources.
Therefore, the sexual and
reproductive rights perspective
 Ties together the population control perspective and the
women's rights perspective, and increasingly, also children's
rights.
 Argues that if information is made available, women will
use these services and will have fewer children. This, in
turn, will free women from home and enable their personal
development. It will also curbs population growth.
 Is supported by the UN Conferences of the past twenty-five
years,
 Is based, on the false premises that all women want fewer
children, motherhood is an oppressive institution, and
population growth is a negative occurrence. It also ignores
the problems of an aging population.
5. The Gender Perspective

They argue that the traditional binary understanding of
gender as male and female restricts personal sexual
expression.

The gay-lesbian lobby, radical women's rights groups, and
population control groups such as the International
Planned Parenthood Federation (IPPF), are the main
supporters of an understanding of gender that allows for
bisexual, transsexual, homosexual, etc.

The population control perspective is supportive of alternative
gender language insofar as non-heterosexual couples imply
fewer children, while the gay-lesbian lobby and radical
women’s groups want greater sexual ‘freedom of
expression.’
Economic Theories
Classical Economic Growth: Malthusian
Theory picked up by Coals and Hoover
(1958)
Neo-Classical Theory: Solow (1956)
Human Capital Theory: Gary Becker
Neo-Malthusian Theory: Ehrlich (1968)
and Hardin (1968)
Classical Economic Growth
 The foundation of the relationship between
population growth and real growth is Malthus'
Theory of Population and Income (1798 Essay in the
Principle of Population.)
 Population grows geometrically while subsistence
(food) increases at an arithmetic ratio.
 Thus, there is an inverse relationship between
population growth and development.
 Man’s ability to increase his food supply is
constrained in three particular ways: through land
scarcity, limit productive capacity of cultivated
land, and the law of diminishing returns.
The inverse relationship between
population and growth
• The consumption effect
• The production effect on private and
public goods
• Age-Distribution effect
• Dilution of Capital
Summary
Assuming a fixed level of resources, it predicts a
decrease in per capita income in two ways:
more consumers divide any given amount of goods
each worker produces less because there is less capital,
private and public, per worker
In addition:
growing number of young children poses an
additional burden on consumption because they consume
but they do not produce.
population growth hinders economic growth because, by
reducing savings and education, it reduces investment.
Key assumption in this theory is the ceteris paribus
Classical Theory Fails Both
Theoretically and Empirically
• Analysis at both levels suggest that there is no
statistically proven simple relationship between
population growth and economic growth, population size
and economic growth, population size and resources, or
population growth and environment.
• Thus, empirical evidence suggests that population
growth is not the only relevant variable for development
and, therefore, that there is no support for Malthus'
dynamic growth theory.
Neo-Classical Theory
Focus on economic growth through investment,
ignoring any link between population and the
economy.
The adjustments in growth take place due to the
behavior of investment in physical capital.
Growth is a worldwide process and country
characteristics determine the relative level of
income.
Shocks may only play a minor role in determining
the long-run path of output, despite being an
important determinant of variance in decade-long
growth rates.
 In certain cases, these models have been able
to explain the experience of developed
countries, they have failed to explain
worldwide experience.
 Studies of OECD countries support NeoClassical theory. (Dowrick and Nguyen, 1989)
 In Newly Industrialized Countries (NIC)
human as well as physical capital investment
took place. (Blackburn and Ravn, 1995)
Human Capital Theory
 This model relates the concept of human capital to
family and growth.
 Human capital is introduced as an important
source of economic development that depends on
advances in technological and scientific knowledge.
 A key assumption: the rate of return on
investments in human capital rises as the stock of
human capital increases.
 For this reason, resources are not fixed and may
increase as population increases.
 Population growth, when studied in the light
of human capital theory, leads to multiple
equilibrium points. (Becker, 1993)
 He concluded that this means that history and
luck are critical determinants of a country's
growth experience.
 Thus, population growth is not the only
determining factor in economic development
but training and educational programs
together with physical capital investment are
the important factors.
 Developed countries with negative fertility
rates and undeveloped countries would benefit
from an expansion of both the pool of human
capital and strengthening of the family as the
principle promoter of education and quality of
life.
 Diminishing returns?
Becker found the
answer to this issue in the increase of labor
productivity
due
to
education
and
consequently
rejects
the
Malthusian
assumption of fixed resources.
Neo-Malthusian Theory
• Two main sub-categories
– The Limited Resource Perspective: takes the
classic Malthusian argument and applies it to
all natural resources
– The Socio-Biological Perspective:
almost
acting as a sub-set of the former, treats the
environment as a limited resource and regards
people as a threat to the biodiversity and
ecological balance of that resource.
“Amazing at it seems, providing people in developing nations access
to Family Planning is a critical first step in saving much of the 40
million acres of tropical rainforest being lost each year. (…) In
places where family planning programs already provide voluntary
contraception, health care and sex education, most women are
choosing smaller families. This, in turn, eases the intense pressure on
our environment's natural resources.”
(…) “find out what
Americans can do to help make international family planning a
reality.” U.S. News and World Report
• ‘hundreds of millions’ of people will die of starvation by
the 1970s, 65 million Americans will starve, the population
of the U.S. will decline by 22.6 million persons, and
England will cease to exist by 2000. (Ehrlic, 1968)
• The population connection must be made in the public
mind. Action to end the population explosion humanely
and start a gradual population decline must become a top
item on the human agenda: the human birthrate must be
lowered to slightly below the human death rate as soon as
possible. There still may be time to limit the scope of
impending catastrophe, but not much time. … More
frequent droughts, more damaged crops and famines, more
dying forests, more smog, more international conflicts,
more epidemics, more gridlock, more crime, more sewage
swimming, and other extreme unpleasantness will mark our
course. (Ehrlich and Ehrlich,1990)
Resources At A Glance
In 1998, 150 countries enjoyed a life expectancy at
birth of more than 70 years, up from 55
countries in 1990. The number of developing
countries in the group has more than tripled.
(World Development Report, 2000/2001)
Between 1990 and 2000 the share of the population
with access to safe water nearly doubled, from
40% to 85%. (Human Development Report,
2003)
Despite rapid population growth, food production per
capita increased by nearly 25% during 1990-97.
The per capita daily supply of calories rose from
less than 2,500 to 2,750, and that of protein from
71 grams to 76. (UNDP 1999 Human
Development Report)
Cropland, which includes land devoted to temporary
and permanent crops, temporary meadows,
market and kitchen gardens, and land
temporarily fallow, consumes 11% of the total
land area in the world. (World Bank, 1998/99
World Development Report)
GDP per unit of energy use (PPP US$ per kg of oil
equivalent) grew from 3.2 to 4.6 in developing
countries and from 3.8 to 4.9 in developed
countries (Human Development Report, 2003)
Carbon dioxide emissions per capita grew from
1.6 in 1990 to 1.9 in developing countries
and from 10.5 to 10.8 in developed
countries. (Human Development Report,
2003)
Water
Consumption rates:
•
•
•
US 600 liters/day per person
EU 200 liters/ day per person
Africa 30 liters/day per person
Decreasing rate of growth: the UN estimates that
the world population will be 8.9 billion in
2050; earlier estimates were 9.4 billion by
2035 and 10 billion by 2050. (UN 1998
Revision of the World Population
Estimates and Projections) Add to this the
concerns with population implosion.
Decreasing fertility on a global scale (1980-1998)
Low Income countries
4.3 to 3.1
Middle income
3.7 to 2.5
High Income
1.8 to 1.7
Malthus and his followers are mistaken on
both the demand and the supply side:
On the demand side because population does
not follow a geometric growth as Malthus
predicted.
On the supply side because the resources are
not easily extinguished; rather, they are
created and expanded by the people who are
born, live and work.
His followers have failed to produce sound
projections. They lacks sound data and
sound logic.
We know from economic analysis
that in economic development
 There is a positive correlation between
human capital, infrastructure and economic growth
healthy institutions and economic development
health and income per capita
 These positive correlations reflect an essential
causal link running from human capital to
healthy institutions (social capital)
infrastructure and technology
 Life expectancy is a significant predictor of
economic growth
The family faces serious health and poverty
problems, especially in the developing world
• Lack of income and assets to attain basic
needs:
– Human Assets: basic labor, education, health,
skills
– Natural assets: inputs of production
– Physical access: infrastructure
– Financial assets: access to savings and credit
– Social assets: instructions that are functional
and not corrupted.
• Vulnerability to adverse shocks, linked to
an inability to cope with it
Environmental Health, Welfare and Living Conditions in
Low Income Countries
Indicator
House Connection: water
House Connection: sewerage
House Connection: electricity
Water consumption (liter per person)
Wastewater treated
Solid waste disposal: landfill or incinerated
Solid waste disposal: other (dump,recycled,etc.)
Paved Road
Literacy
Under-five mortality (per 1000)
Public Expenditures on Health (%GDP)
% access
48 / 99
46 / 99
62 / 100
30 / 600
29 / 97
31 / 78
66 / 22
19 / 94
49 / 100
107 / 6
1.3 / 6.2
Two side Effects
Aging Population
The Problem of Health
Aging Population: Facts
 No debate over if or when an aging population will
manifest itself: by 2035 China will have a reversed age
pyramid
 From 2000 to 2025, people above 65 will triple while
youngsters under 15 will increase by only 6%
 The dependency ratio (defined as the percentage of the
population aged 65+ over the percentage of the
population aged 15-64) will increase from an average
of 50% in 1995, to an average of 85%-90% by the year
2050.
 Today in China only 44.9 % of the urban employees
and 85.4 % of the retirees covered
Speed of Population Aging
Number of years for % of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7% to 14%
Colombia
Brazil
Thailand
Tunisia
Sri Lanka
Jamaica
Chile
Singapore
China
Azerbaijan
Japan
Spain
United
Poland
Hungary
Canada
United
Australia
Sweden
France
20
21
22
23
23
24
25
27
27
41
26
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000
45
45
47
53
65
69
73
85
115
China’s Population Distribution, 2000
Age Distribution
over 65
60-65
14%
10%
59-15
0-14
52.50%
23.41%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Source: State Statistical Bureau (2002), Beijing, China and The World Factbook, 2003
Aging Trap
 Social security system funding: the family can not
support the elderly
 Competition between the younger and older people
 Early retirement
 To provide for the economic needs of the elderly, there
is a reduction of funding allocated to training new
generations
 The transmission of cultural, scientific, technical,
artistic, moral and religious goods is endangered:
"moroseness”
 Saving rates are affected by a society's age structure,
mirroring the change in an individual's saving rate over
the life cycle.
The people faces serious health problems,
especially in the developing world
 The main health risks and causes of death for men and women are:
 Cardiovascular diseases (kills 16.7 million)
 Malignant neoplasms (cancer) (kills 7.1 million per year)
 Injuries (kills 5.2 million)
 Respiratory diseases (kills 3.7 million)
 Perinatal conditions (kills 2.5 million)
 Respiratory infections (kills 3.9 million)
 HIV/AIDS (produces 5 million new cases and kills 2.9 million)
 Diarrhoeal Diseases (kills 1.8 million per year)
 Tuberculosis (produces 8 million new cases per year and kills 1.8 million
people per year)
 Malaria ( produces 300-500 million new cases per year and kills 1.2 million)
 Maternal condition (kills 540,000 per year)
 These diseases are rare and treatment is accessible in developed countries
and their cost is remarkably low.
WHO, World Health Report, 2003 , Annex Table 3.
Statistics of HIV/AIDS per Region, 2003
Regions
Beginning
Persons
Infected with
HIV
New
persons
Infected
with HIV
Rate of
Adults
infected
with
HIV
Rate of
women
infected
with
HIV
Modes of
Transmission
Sub-Sahara Africa
End 70s
25 million
3 million
7.5%
55%
Hetero
Northern Africa and End 80s
Middle East
480,000
75,000
0.2%
40%
Hetero, IDU
South Asia
End 80s
6.5 million
850,000
0.6%
35%
Hetero
East and Pacific
Asia
End 80s
900,000
200,000
0.1%
20%
IDU,Hetero, MSM
Latin-America
End 70s
1.6 million
200,000
0.6%
30%
MSM, IDU, Hetero
Caribbean
End 70s
430,000
52,000
2.3%
50%
Hetero, MSM
Central Asia and
Europe
Begin.
90s
1.3 million
360,000
0.6%
20%
IDU
Western Europe
End 70s
580,000
20,000
0.3%
25%
MSM, IDU
North America
End 70s
1 million
44,000
0.6%
20%
MSM, IDU, Hetero
Australia and New
Zeeland
End 70s
32,000
5,000
0.2%
10%
MSM
37.8 Million
8.4 million
1.1%
48%
Total
Low Cost Effective Interventions
Cost of Treatment and (annual cost per capita)
US Dollars
Treatment
Costs
Effectiveness
Chemotherapy for TB (6 months )
$20.00
($0.60)
95%
Contraceptives (HIV)
$14.00
($1.90)
99%
(85%-95%)
Hydration salts for Diarrhea
$0.33
($1.60)
95%
Pneumonia Antibiotics (5 days antibiotics)
$0.27
High
Measles (1 dose of vaccine)
$0.26
($0.50)
98%
Malaria
$10
($0.05)
100%
Sources: CDS, WHO
 Cost of malaria to African countries is 1-5% of GDP,
productivity of the worker is reduced by 60%. Direct
and indirect costs of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa
exceed $2 billion.
 75% of TB infections and deaths occur in the 15-54
year age group (the most productive group).
 AIDS places seventh among the leading causes of
death. The main mode of transmission are homosexual
and heterosexual promiscuity and injected-drug-use
(IDU) (all high risk behavior). 36.1 million infected.
 Majority of maternal deaths are due to poor access to
health care (1.9% of female death)
Solutions often Proposed
 Outlined in the 8 UN Millennium Development
Goals.
 Population control
Aging population trap
 “Safe sex” and antiretroviral drugs.
Although condoms give the “best” protection against HIV
for men, the risk reduction for women is not as high
(Davis and Weller,1999)
Use of condoms increases the risk of contracting AIDS
(UNAIDS 1996 and NACHHD 1999)
Not a solution for IUD and Heterosexual transmission
Access to family planning increases sexual promiscuity
(Kaiser 2000, Paton 2002, USAID 2002)
The message is clear, the only way to
avoid acquiring HIV through sexual
contact is abstinence from sexual
involvement or restricting sexual
activity to a mutually faithful,
monogamous, life-long relationship
with a similarly uninfected heterosexual
partner. In most cultures and for all
recorded history, this relationship is
known as marriage
Allocation of Funds
 World Bank lending for malaria amounted to $300
million and for tuberculosis amounted to $560 million.
 The WHO funds totaled $369 million in 2002-2003
 For HIV/AIDS, the World Bank allocated $1.5 billion in
grants, loans, and credits to fight HIV/AIDS over the
past five years.
 Cost of Antiretroviral regimen has
significantly ($12,000 per year to $500)
decreased
 Annual population assistance levels reached $2 billion a
year.
 The misuse of funds does not only affect health but also
other fundamental elements of economic growth
Expenditure on Grant-Financed Development Activities
of the United Nations System by Sector
(Percentage of Total)
16
Percentage of Total
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Population
T ransport
Science and T echnology
Energy
Communications
Employment
Industry
T rade and Development
Expenditures on Grant-Financed Development Activities
of the United Nations System by Sector
16
Percentage of Total
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Population
Education
Source: Compiled from Comprehensive Statistical Data on Operational Activities for Development,
years 1990-2003.
CONCLUSIONS
The neo-Malthusian perspective is seriously
flawed on many levels and policy actions
based on such assumptions will be equally
compromised and potentially damaging for
real sustainable development.
Most potent among these critiques for the
rational observer is the scientific data, which
holds neo-Malthusian claims up to the light
of reality. Let the data speak for itself.
In addition, these policies coerce less
developed countries to make population
control the overriding investment. Thus,
women are involuntarily reduced to vehicles
for carrying out government policy.