Game Theory Dr. Andrew L. H. Parkes “Economics for Business (2)” 卜安吉 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics Eight gametheorists have won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 2 John von Neuman A brilliant mathematician who’s paper in 1928 was a significant milestone in creating the field of game theory. April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 3 John von Neuman was a Hungarian-American mathematician and polymath who made major contributions to a vast number of fields. Von Neumann founded the field of game theory as a mathematical discipline. Von Neumann's proved his minimax theorem in 1928. April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 4 John Von Neuman This theorem establishes that in zero-sum games with perfect information, there exists a pair of strategies for both players that allows each to minimize his maximum losses (hence the name minimax). April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 5 Zero Sum Games Zero-sum games are those in which one person's gains exactly equal net losses of the other participant(s). April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 6 Perfect Information perfect information means that players know at each time all moves that have taken place so far, for example April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 7 A Nash Equilibrium … is the solution to a game involving two or more players when each player takes into account the other players’ known strategies. Jon Forbes Nash A genius mathematician who created what has become known as the Nash Equilibrium. April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 8 A Nash Equilibrium John Nash is the subject of the Hollywood movie A Beautiful Mind. Russell Crowe plays his part … April 5, 2012 A Nash Equilibrium results when no player can improve their situation as long as others do not change their positions. Business Economics 2: Day 4 9 Prisoner’s Dilemma The Prisoner’s Dilemma, is an aspect of game theory that examines why two individuals might not agree, even if it appears that it is best to do so. April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 10 Prisoner’s Dilemma Cooperation is usually analyzed in game theory Action of A\Action of B Cooperate Defect Cooperate Fairly good [+ 5] Bad [ - 10] Defect Good [+ 10] April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 Mediocre [0] 11 Prisoner’s Dilemma There are two players And Two Choices To either “Cooperate" or to “Defect“ The “Payoff Matrix” – is name for the set of Choices April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 12 Prisoner’s Dilemma Each player gains when both cooperate But if only one of the players cooperates The defector gains more If both defect, both lose (or gain very little) However, both do not lose as much as the "cheated" (the cooperator) April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 13 Prisoner’s Dilemma The Origin of the Game A Crime was committed Two alleged criminals, both say I didn’t do it! Police (Cops) play “good cop, bad cop” Offer each a “DEAL” – I have a deal for YOU! Confess and you get a lesser sentence! Therefore, this is the “Prisoner’s Dilemma.” April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 14 Prisoner’s Dilemma If the Game is Zero Sum then: Both cooperate then result is 5 One cooperates: receives +10 One does not cooperate: receives – 10 No one cooperated both receive 0! Therefore, zero sum game! April 5, 2012 Business Economics 2: Day 4 15