Estados Unidos
Mexicanos
AP Comp Government
2013
Key Themes
1. Decline of Illiberal Democracy- especially until 2000
• 2006 divisive election-PAN gains control of
Congress
• 2012- will PRI return?
2. Changing Political Culture
• distrust in political institutions
•
return of PRI?
3. Cleavages
2
Presidential
Election 2006
The Result . . .
BBC July 7, 2006
3
Lots of Protest. . .
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador may have
lost the vote counting after the 2 July
presidential election in Mexico. But he is still
the big winner on the streets of the capital
city.
Hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic Lopez
Obrador supporters crammed into the square
known as Zocalo, in the heart of Mexico City's
historic central district on Saturday. There was
no empty space, save behind a few huge
banners that blocked the view of the stage.
Men, women and children cheered wildly and
waved yellow flags. They chanted the name of
the man they believe won last week's election.
Mexico City is Mr Lopez Obrador's
4
most passionate constituency
BBC July 9 2006
The party at the
heart of Mexico
City's protest
STREET FIESTA:
Supporters of Mexico's
left-leaning presidential
candidate Andres Manuel
Lopez Obrador fry food on
improvised gas cookers.
Their street protest has
closed down more than
five miles of Mexico City's
Reforma boulevard. CSM
Aug 15, 2006 ( a month
after the last slide)
5
Supporters of Andrés
Manuel Lopéz Obrador,
the Mexican leftist
candidate, weeping
Saturday after his call
for a total vote recount
was rebuffed
SO then . . . A partial recount
NYT Aug. 5 — A seven-member electoral tribunal
on Saturday unanimously rejected a demand from
the leftist candidate for president for a complete
recount of votes, setting the stage for more protests by
thousands of his supporters who have camped out in
the capital, claiming the election last month was
fraudulent.
The judges ruled there were arithmetic errors and other
irregularities that warranted a recount of votes in
about 10 percent of the polling places. Those polling
places are located in 145 of the 300 electoral districts
and 26 of the 32 states.
6
In the municipality of Zapopan, officials checked ballots during a recount
ordered by the electoral tribunal. NYT Aug 10, 2006
7
Protests continue:
There were chaotic scenes in
Mexico's Congress as left-wing
lawmakers forced outgoing
President Vicente Fox to
abandon his final annual
address.
Mexico lawmakers stop
Fox speech
Before Mr Fox arrived, the
legislators, who allege fraud in
recent elections, marched onto the
main podium where they shouted
slogans and waved placards.
Mr Fox later delivered the speech
on TV from his official residence
BBC Sept 2, 2006
8
Sept 6 2006
Federal Electoral Tribunal
declares a winner
.
The Mexican president-elect, Felipe
Calderón, accepted cheers Tuesday
at his party’s headquarters in Mexico
City. NYT Sept 5 2006
Mexico's top electoral court has
rejected claims July's presidential
election was riddled with fraud.
The judges said a partial recount of
votes had not changed the original
result, which gave narrow victory to
conservative candidate Felipe
Calderon. In their final ruling on
Tuesday, the judges concluded Mr.
Calderón won the election by a mere
233,831 votes out of 41.5 million
cast, a margin very close to the
9
official tally done in early July
Final Tally from the CIA factbook:
Felipe CALDERON elected president; percent of vote –
Felipe CALDERON (PAN) 35.89%
Andres Manuel Lopez OBRADOR (PRD) 35.31%,
Roberto MADRAZO (PRI) 22.26%
other 6.54%;
10
Mid Sept
–Still
Mass
Protests
Supporters of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who narrowly lost
Mexico's presidential election, held a mass rally in the capital's
11
main square.
Yes, He Lost
Mexico’s Vote, So
He’s Swearing
Himself In
NYT Nov 20 2006
About 100,000 people crowded into Constitution Plaza in
Mexico City on Monday to watch Andrés Manuel López
12
Obrador swear himself in.
And on the eve of
Caldron's Swearing in
Ceremony. . .
A lawmaker from the
conservative National Action
Party gave pillows to colleagues
in Mexico’s Congress on
Wednesday as they and members
of the leftist Democratic
Revolutionary Party scuffled for
control of the dais
MEXICO CITY, Nov. 30 — It is a measure of the problems Felipe Calderón will confront
as president when he is sworn in on Friday that both his conservative supporters and
leftist opponents have camped out on the dais in Congress where the ceremony is to
take place. The leftists swear they will stop Mr. Calderón from taking the oath of office.
The conservatives vow to ensure that he does. The standoff has become comic, as
legislators from both sides have stayed up all night singing ranchero songs in between 13
hurling fists and insults. NYT Dec 1, 2006
Legislators scuffled in Congress before bodyguards ushered in
Felipe Calderón to be sworn in as president. NYT Dec 1, 2006
14
Amid Catcalls, Mexico’s President Is Sworn In
MEXICO CITY, Dec. 1 — It was not pretty, but Felipe Calderón, the new president of
Mexico, managed to take the oath of office in Congress Friday, as opposition
lawmakers whistled and catcalled and the losing leftist candidate staged a
massive march down the central avenue of the capital. Never before in modern
Mexican history has a president been sworn in under such chaotic and divisive
conditions. At midnight, as President Vicente Fox’s term ran out, the government took
the step of broadcasting the private swearing-in of Mr. Calderón at the presidential
residence, a legal necessity usually not publicized.
Minutes later, Mr. Calderón spoke on national television to urge lawmakers to
“respect the Constitution” and let the ceremony take place.
The call went unheeded. Mr. Calderón’s opponents from the leftist Democratic
Revolution Party tried to block the entrances to Congress to prevent him from being
publicly sworn in. But with his conservative National Action Party supporters ringing
the podium, he and Mr. Fox were spirited in by bodyguards through a door near the
15
dais at the front of the chamber at 9:50 a.m.
As allies applauded and opponents jeered, Mr. Calderón, in sash, beside his
predecessor, Vicente Fox, took his oath and left
16
Results in Congressional Elections
“Shift of Power in Mexico’s Congress”
2006 Mexico's ruling National Action Party (PAN) has become the largest
party in Congress for the first time.
But the final results of the 2 July elections, released on Wednesday, saw the party
fall short of the outright majority required to govern alone.
The PRD came in second place, ahead of the Institutional Revolutionary Party
which governed for more than 70 years.
....
In the legislative elections, the PAN won 206 seats in the 500-seat Chamber of
Deputies and 52 seats in the Senate.
Mr Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) won 126 seats in the
17 lower
chamber and 29 in the Senate.
One year later . . . . From the Economist
Mexico's teetering president
19
2009: On the ballot were seats for 500
federal legislators, six governors and
about 500 mayors and local legislators in
11 states. :
Results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legis
lative_election,_2009
20
But . . . After elections in July 2009 . . .
Opposition Wins Majority in Mexican Vote
A voter cast his ballot on Sunday in Mexico City. The party of the Mexican president became the
second largest in Congress. See results at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2009
Calderón's hatful of troubles
The PRI’s victory means that change in
Mexico now depends more on the former
ruling party than on the president
After Mexico's mid-term election
Jul 9th 2009
Not only did the PRI, which ruled
Mexico for seven decades until
2000, more than double its seats
in the lower house of Congress. It
also won five of the six state
governorships in play and many
PRI’s slogan . . . .“proven
important mayoralties. Although
experience, new attitude”.
it won only 37% of the vote (on a
turnout of 45%), the PRI will now
take most of the decisions that
22
matter over the next three years
23
Note you need 251 for a majority
2009 Elections: Chamber of Deputies: - seats by party—PRI 237, PAN 142, PRD
69, PVEM 21, PT 13, other 10
2006 Elections
Chamber of Deputies - seats by party - PAN 206, PRD 127, PRI 103, PVEM 18,
CD 17, PT 16, other 13 (500 total) ;
Senate: seats by party - PRI 33, PAN 52, PRD 26, , PVEM 6, CD 5, PT 5,
independent 1;
2003 elections – Chamber of Deputies PRI: 224; PAN 149; PRD 97; PVEM 17;
PT 6; CD5; independents 2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2003
2000 elections –
Chamber of Deputies: PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change” 221; PRI: 211; PRD,
PT, PAS, CD PSN “Alliance for Mexico” 68 total 500
Senate PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change “51, PRI 60, PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN
“Alliance for Mexico” 17 total 128
1997 elections
25
Chamber of Deputies: PRI 239; PRD 125; PAN 121; PT 7; PVEN 6 total 500
OVERVIEW: facts and
figures
26
Overview: Regime type
•
•
•
•
•
•
Presidential democracy; federal republic
Economy: Capitalist-statist (Freedom House designation)
On paper: separation of powers, checks and balances,
federalism, bicameral
Until 2000: one party dominant regime (opposition
parties were represented in legislature, but one
party controlled the process , centralization of power,
“Presidencialismo”
chief of state: Felipe CALDERON
head of government:Felipe CALDERON
See also:
http://www.economist.com/countries/Mexico/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DPolitical%2
27
0Structure
Sovereignty, Authority,
and Power
Emiliano Zapata Revolutionary and land
reformer, killed in an ambush in 1919
28
Violent Evolutionary Stages
1.
Bloody Revolution versus Spain
(1810 – 1821);
2.
Nation-Building (1821 – 1921) from
independence to the formation of the
Partido Revolucionaro Institucional
(PRI), and
3.
Economic Boom of the 1960’s,
Economic Crisis of the 1980’s and
1990’s, an Assassination of a
leading Presidential candidate (Luis
Colosio), a Rebellion in Chiapas
(both 1994), and a Political Loss for
the PRI in 2000.
Wedding, pp. 136 & 137
2000: A watershed in
Mexican Politics
29
Historical & Political Turning Points
Olmec,
Mayan,
Toltec,
Aztec, &
others
Arrival
Of
Cortes
Pre
1500
1810- 1846 1876- 191019271519 1821 1848 1911 1921 1917 1929
War
Indepen- With
USA
dence
War for
Diaz
Regime:
Porfiriato
Wedding, p. 137
Constitution
Revolt
Crister
Rebellion
30
Historical and Political Turning Points
PRI’s
predecessor
Founded
1929
Pemax
Gov’t Oil
Of
Co.
Cardenas Nationalized PAN
Women
founded Suffrage
19341940 1938 1939 1953
Wedding, p. 137
Massacre
Of
Tialtelolco
OIL
Debt
Crisis Crisis
19781968 1982 1982
31
Historical and Political Turning Points
NAFTA,
Earthquake
In
Mexico
City
Salinas
Elected
Pres.
1985
1988
Zapatisa
Revolt in
Chiapas,
Colosio
is
Assassinated
1994
PRI
PRI
Presidential
Loses
Candidate
Majority in Beaten for
Chamber First Time by
Electoral Of
Vicente
Reforms Deputies
Fox
1996
Wedding, p. 137
1997
2000
32
Bases of Legitimacy
• Revolution—ideology of national
unity, social justice, agrarian reform
• “Mexicanization”
• Constitution
• Gov’t’s role in promoting
economic growth, social welfare
• 2000 Election
• Concerns about legitimacy due to
scandals, corruption, lawlessness,
inequality, 2006 election
Picture of Zapata by Diego Rivera
33
Political Culture: Beliefs
• Democracy, not authoritarian; but . . .
Democracy = equality > freedom
• Distrust govt and state; Political elites seen as
arrogant and distant
• Low efficacy; disinterest in govt
• Historically tolerated cooption, but corruption
testing this
• “proud of Indian past, ashamed of Indian
present”
34
OVERVIEW: Population
• Ethnic Groups: mestizo (Amerindian-Spanish)
60%, Amerindian or predominantly Amerindian 30%,
white 9%, other 1%
• Religions: nominally Roman Catholic 89%,
Protestant 6%, other 5%
• Languages: Spanish, various Mayan, Nahuatl, and
other regional indigenous languages
CIA Factbook
35
DRESS CODE:
Martha Ramirez
works at her stand
in Tijuana, Mexico.
City regulations
will now require
vendors to wear
traditional dress or
a city uniform.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0705/p06s03-wogn.html
36
Political Culture: Socialization
• Family
• Schools—federally mandated curriculum and textbooks
• Religion:
--89% Catholics
--until 1920, Catholic church actively participated in
politics; Priests often led populist movements
--Early 20th c. government turned anti-cleric;
--church influenced has declined but Church run private
schools still educate many middle to upper class children
37
Political Culture: Socialization
• Authoritarian elements: instead of mass
mobilization, PRI limited and controlled participation
• Mass Media controlled through PRI by funding
• More independent since 2000
• Electoral reform of 1996 mandates FEI monitors
election coverage for bias, leads to more
participation
• Salinas’ privatization leads to more competition in
TV broadcasting
38
Citizens, Society, and
the State
Zapatista Army of
National Liberation
(EZLN)
MEXICO CITY, Mexico (AP) -President Vicente Fox said Friday
that U.S. activists who have called a
new Mexican postage stamp racist
don't understand the issue and
should read the comic book. 7/1/05
www.cnn.com/.../americas/ 12/01/mexico.fox.04/
In Mexico, 52% of
voters are women
CNN 2000 election
39
Cleavages: Ethnic
• 60% Mestizo, and 30% AmerIndian
• Indigenous: Glorified in history,
tradition and revolution, but now . . .
• politically marginalized and victims of
Mexico's worst poverty, compared to
Mexico's wealthy elite who tend to be
lighter skinned and of European origins
• Leads to Chiapas . . .
40
CHIAPAS
Who: mostly Mayan
Indians
What: form Zapatista
Army of National
Liberation (EZLN)
When: Jan 1994
Where: occupied
several towns in
State of Chiapas
Why: Indigenous rts.
democratization, end
to neo-liberal
economic reforms
41
IMPACT:
surprisingly
popular within
Mexico and,
together with the
economic crisis,
helped erode PRI
political
dominance and to
accelerate
electoral reforms
Subcomandante Marcos
42
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1214676.stm
Since the Zapatistas launched an armed rebellion 1994, the
Mexican army has moved between 40,000 and 60,000 troops
into the state of Chiapas. Although significant clashes
between the rebels and the army have been few, the military,
local police and armed paramilitary groups hired by large
landowners have been accused of committing numerous
human rights abuses against villagers suspected of
sympathizing with the rebels.
http://www.drake.edu/artsci/PolSci/ipe/Viva
Marcospage.html
43
http://www.drake.edu/a
rtsci/PolSci/ipe/Muralpa
ge.html
This mural adorns one wall of a restaurant in San Cristobal.
Note the artist's bold political commentary on the choices
facing the indigenous peasants of Chiapas. The masked
figure on the right represents Subcommandante Marcos, a
leader and spokesperson for the E.Z.L.N., or Zapatistas, who
sparked a rebellion against the Mexican state that began on
44
January 1, 1994 - the very day that NAFTA went into effect.
Zapatista supporters of Subcommander
Marcos awaited him in Palenque on
Tuesday. In his speeches, he blames
"savage capitalism" and the rich for social
Marcos on tour, in San Cristóbal de las Casas on
problems from gay-baiting to racism
45 to
Wednesday Jan 4NYT Jan 6, 2006
domestic violence.
The Outcome
•1996 Peace Accord signed b/w Zedillo govt and EZLN
promised protection of indigenous languages and
granted indigenous communities’ political
autonomy
. . . But never implemented
• Vicente Fox, claimed he could resolve the Chiapas
conflict "in 15 minutes"
. . . but has not yet been able to make peace
•Fox's recent proposed constitutional amendment
granting more indigenous rights was watered down by
Congress,
46
. . . And the Zapatistas rejected it
Cleavages--Area
•
•
Region: Federal District (Mexico City) and
northern borders states most privileged;
Southern (especially Chiapas, Oaxaca and
Guerrero) and central worse
North is characterized by large-scale export
agriculture; land is much more fragmented
in the south. South far poorer infrastructure,
lower levels of education, and more poverty.
47
Maquiladoras
•foreign owned plants that
import materials or parts to
assemble for re-export
•account for about half of all of
Mexico's exports, generate
more foreign exchange for
Mexico than any other sector,
including oil
•At first, concentrated along the
Mexican-U.S. border, now more
wide spread
• exacerbating north-south gap
•Prefer to hire women
userwww.sfsu.edu/ ~jdrew/web/maquila.html
48
REGIONAL CLEAVAGES
•Federal District (Mexico City)
and northern borders states
most privileged; Southern
(especially Chiapas, Oaxaca
and Guerrero) and central
worse
•North --large-scale export
agriculture; South land more
fragmented and far poorer
infrastructure, lower levels of
education, and more poverty
Rural Urban: 70% of the population that lives in
extreme poverty live in rural areas
49
Majority candidate per state according to PREP. Blue:
Felipe Calderón, Yellow: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
50
More evidence of regional gap:
“Mexican riot police have seized
control of the southern city of
Oaxaca, ending a five-month
occupation by striking teachers
and leftist activists” BBC Oct 2006
51
CLEAVAGES: Rich/poor Gap
• Long time great
inequality—despite rhetoric
of Mexican rev
• Worse in rural/south
• Increased with switch to
neo-lib economic policies
• govt spending on social
security, public health and
education low relative to
other countries in Latin
America
New UN study says the richest 10 % of
Mexicans produce 43 percent of the country's
wealth, and the bottom tenth 1 %
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0127/p07s0252
woam.html
Cleavages: Gender
Representation in congress: more
proportionally represented than in US—lower house
16% female in 2000; 23% in 2003
New Gender Quota Law passed in 2002
requires no more than 70% of the seats in SMDs be
the same gender and 1/3 spots on PR lists must be
women—implemented in July 2003 elections
Voting: 52% of voters are women
See: http://www.ipu.org/wmn-e/classif.htm
53
Cleavages: Gender
Grassroots: large part of NGOs,
protest
Economics: As result of economic
crisis of 80s and 1990s, women’s
participation increased dramatically;
Multinational corps and Maquidores
prefer women as more reliable and
less likely to protest
More than 1,000 women
marched through Mexico City to
demand that those responsible
for killing hundreds of women
in the border town of Ciudad
Juarez be brought to justice
54
BBC Nov 2002
Participation: Voting
•
•
•
•
Traditionally done to ratify a
choice of candidates made by
PRI hierarchy
Why: civic duty, law, pressure
from local caciques, esp. in
rural, sometimes votes sold for
handout from local officials
obligatory voting by law;
evidence sometimes required
to get public services
Turnout higher in presidential,
went up since 1988, abysmally
low in midterm 2003
From the BBC elections
2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americ
as/3052124.stm
55
Participation Protests:
56
Thousands in Mexico City Protest Rising
Food Prices Jan 31 2007
Some protesters handed out ears of corn to workers and
farmers who marched in Mexico City on Wednesday.
57
Protesters in Mexico City on Wednesday made known their displeasure over the58rising
price of food staples. Jan 19 2007
President Felipe Calderón, right, with Roberto González, the president of Gruma,
59
before announcing set prices on corn products
Jan 19 2007.
Tlatelolco MassacreStudnet
Protests 1968
The massacre was preceded by
months of political unrest in the
Mexican capital, echoing student
demonstrations and riots all over the
world during 1968. The Mexican
students wanted to exploit the
attention focused on Mexico City for
the1968 Olympic Games, calling the
games “a diversion for the rich, which
the poor are paying for”
President Diaz, however, was determined to stop the demonstrations
and, in September, he ordered the army to occupy the campus of the
National Autonomous University of Mexico,Students were beaten and60
arrested indiscriminately.
Student demonstrators were not deterred, however. The demonstrations
grew in size, until, on October 2, after student strikes lasting nine weeks,
15,000 students from various universities marched through the streets of
Mexico City, carrying red carnations to protest the army's occupation of
the university campus. By nightfall, 5,000 students and workers, many of
them with spouses and children, had congregated outside an apartment
complex in the Plaza de las Tres Culturas in Tlatelolco for what was
supposed to be a peaceful rally. Among their chants were México –
Libertad – México – Libertad ("Mexico – Liberty – Mexico –Liberty").
Rally organizers attempted to call off the protest when they noticed an
increased military presence in the area.
61
The massacre began at sunset when army and police forces — equipped with
armored cars and tanks — surrounded the square and began firing live rounds
into the crowd, hitting not only the protestors, but also other people who were
present for reasons unrelated to the demonstration. Demonstrators and
passersby alike, including children, were caught in the fire; soon, mounds of
bodies lay on the ground. The killing continued through the night, with soldiers
carrying out mopping-up operations on a house-to-house basis in the apartment
buildings adjacent to the square. Witnesses to the event claim that the bodies
were later removed in garbage trucks.
The death toll remains uncertain: some estimates place the number of
deaths in the thousands, but most sources report 200-300 deaths. Many
more were wounded, and several thousand arrests occurred.
Troops opened fire on protesters in La
Plaza de las Tres Culturas
62
In 1997, the Mexican congress established a committee to investigate
the Tlatelolco massacre. The committee interviewed many political
players involved in the massacre, including Luis Echeverría Álvarez, a
former president of Mexico who was Díaz Ordaz's minister of the interior
at the time of the massacre. Echeverría admitted that the students had
been unarmed, and also suggested that the military action was planned
in advance, as a means to destroy the student movement.
However, it is important to note that the PRI’s grip on power was not
primarily due to its use of violence.
63
Mexican Court Orders Ex-President Tried in ’68 Student
Massacre
MEXICO CITY, Nov. 29, 2006 — An appeals court on Wednesday cleared the way for
the arrest and trial of former President Luis Echeverría on genocide charges in
connection with the massacre of student protesters in 1968.
The court reversed earlier rulings that the statute of limitations had long since run out,
saying it had two days to go.
The ruling is the final twist in a long battle by the administration of President Vicente
Fox to charge and try Mr. Echeverría, who is 84 and in poor health, for his role in the
deaths and disappearances of hundreds of students, leftist dissidents and guerrillas in
the late 1960s and early 1970s, a period known in Mexico as “the dirty war.”
The decision was a victory for Mr. Fox, who leaves office on Friday. He staked part of
his political legacy on holding government officials responsible for past atrocities
instead of forming a truth commission with no ability to charge people with crimes.
64
participation in popular movements/independent citizen
organizations, rise of civil society in 1990s
Why:
• economic crises of 1908s and 1990s,
• gov’t doesn’t deal well with security problems,
• declining responsiveness of state licensed “peak
association”
• gangsterism in govt’ sponsored unions,
• blatant PRI election fraud in 1980s,
• nationalization of banks by Portillo in 1982,
• inadequate response to Mexico city earthquake
in 1985, neo-liberal economic policies,
• Increasing societal modernization (higher
education levels, urbanization etc)
• More mass communication—b/c of technology
and restrictions on media lifted
Protesters were armed with
machetes
“Mexican farmers cheer
airport victory”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi
65
/world/americas/2169556.s
tm
Political and Economic
Change
Dead cattle lined a river in Aguadulce, Veracruz,
and residents were evacuated after a Pemex
pipeline broke in January, spilling semirefined
gas.
66
Political change under Fox
The country Mr. Calderón inherits on Friday has changed in
many ways since 2000, when Mr. Fox’s election ended the
71-year monopoly on power held by the Institutional
Revolutionary Party. Under Mr. Fox, Mexico has become a
country with stronger democratic institutions, vociferous
public debate and the end of an imperial-style presidency.
NYT Dec 1, 2006
67
Blue: Advanced economies
Orange Emerging and developing economies
(not least developed)
Red Emerging and developing economies
Newly industrialized
countries as of 2009
68
69
Economy until the 1970s
•
•
•
•
•
•
Strong elite consensus that state should be a “guiding force” of a mixed
economy; Mexico was to have a capitalist economy, but the Mexican state
played an important role in key sectors of the economy, though far less than in
socialist economies.
State was nation’s largest employer,
Practiced import substitution: industrialization was encouraged through
import policies with high tariff protection for Mexican industries and
agriculture
Government policies provided Mexican entrepreneurs with subsidized credit
and energy, and very low taxes
PRI's ability to control labor and therefore labor costs also benefited Mexico's
entrepreneurs.
Result: “Mexican Miracle” economic growth (annually 6-7%) and low
inflation (5%) but inequality and then crashes in economic crisis of 1970s and
1980s
70
Economy today:
globalization and market liberalization
• Most recent presidents—more free reign to market forces; liberalized
Mexico's statist economy, abandoned social commitments (like land
reform)
• Structural adjustment: (a policy of economic liberalization adopted in
exchange for financial support from liberal international organizations,
typically includes privatizing state run firms, ending subsidies, reducing
tariff barriers, shrinking the size of the state and recombining foreign
investment)
• Fox responsible for preserving macroeconomic stability (although
without reducing unemployment or significantly improving growth)
• North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States
and Canada in 1994
• Growing gdp, growing inequality
71
FROM Import substitution : a trade and economic policy
based on the premise that a country should attempt to reduce
its foreign dependency through the local production of
industrialized products
TO
Structural Adjustment
72
a policy of economic liberalization adopted in exchange
for financial support from liberal international
organizations, typically includes privatizing state run
firms, ending subsidies, reducing tariff barriers,
shrinking the size of the state and recombining foreign
investment)
73
74
The government, rather than contributing to a rebound, is making
matters worse. Thanks to revenue from the nationalised oil
industry, Mexico’s governments have traditionally collected little
tax. Despite recent fiscal reforms, federal tax revenue amounts to
only 11% of GDP, among the lowest in the world.But oil output is
falling rapidly, mainly because of a constitutional ban on private
investment in energy. The finance ministry cleverly hedged much
of Mexico’s oil output this year back in 2008, when prices were
near their peak. But oil income will fall in 2010. As a result, Mexico
may see its credit rating downgraded, even though the public 75
debt
is only 43% of GDP
HDI
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Hu
76
man_Development_Index
PEMEX
• See slide show:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/09/bus
iness/worldbusiness/09pemex.html
77
If you couldn’t see the slide show or access the article . . .
Here’s the gist
Pemex is in trouble. Its production and proven reserves are falling, and it has no money to reverse
the slide. Mexico is the second-largest supplier of imported oil to the United States, after
Canada, but its total exports are slipping. If the company continues on its current course, Mexico
may one day have trouble just keeping up with rising demand at home.
The evidence of its predicament is clear not far from the KU-S platform. On the horizon, some 50 to
60 miles into the southern Gulf of Mexico, aging rigs billow flames and black smoke over the waters
as they burn off the natural gas they are unable to process.
The major reason that Pemex’s prospects are so poor, energy experts agree, is government
interference. The Mexican government, which expropriated the oil industry in 1938, depends on
Pemex to finance its budget. Last year, sales at Pemex (its full name is Petróleos Mexicanos)
reached $97 billion. But $79 billion of that went to the government, Pemex’s chief, Jesús Reyes
Heróles, said last month. That accounted for almost 40 percent of the federal budget.
Government interference is only part of the story. Pemex has been hamstrung by years of shortsighted management aimed at extracting the most cash for the government treasury — Mexico’s
president and Congress must approve the company’s budget, its output, investments and exports each
year. By law, Pemex is closed to any outside investment, shutting it off from private capital and
expertise.
78
79
80
MASSIVE
INEQUALITY
• Long time problem,
despite Mexican revs
commitment to equality
• shift to neo-liberal
policies increased gap
• Problem not evenly
distributed—worse in
rural areas, central and
South
• Huge informal sector
81
indicates poverty
http://www.economist.com/surveys/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=403154
From the first article: “Yet even if the ruling party manages to
build_c______________, the public might be more defiant. The
industrial__________(region) , which has benefited from freetrade agreements like NAFTA, went overwhelmingly for Calderón,
while the poorer___________(region) has embraced Obrador which could make it hard for voters to eventually legitimize a
winner.
82
GINI INDEX: a measure of
inequality
83
The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality It is usually used to measure income
inequality, but can be used to measure any form of uneven distribution. The Gini
coefficient is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds with perfect equality
(where everyone has the same income) and 1 corresponds with perfect inequality
(where one person has all the income, and everyone else has zero income). The Gini
index is the Gini coefficient expressed in percentage form, and is equal to the Gini
coefficient multiplied by 100. The Gini coefficient's main advantage is that it is a measure
of inequality, not a measure of average income or some other variable which is
unrepresentative of most of the population, such as GDP
Correlation with per-capita GDP
Poor countries (those with low per capita GDP have Gini coefficients that fall
over the whole range from low (0.25) to high (0.71), while rich countries have
generally low Gini coefficient (under 0.40).
84
President Cardenas (1934-40)
•most important reformer; embodied
socialist aspects of Revolution
•first president to implement the
Constitution's call for land reform
•Integrated peasants and workers into
state-controlled unions
•Nationalized foreign-dominated oil
industry ; created PEMEX (state oil
monopoly )
•won the PRI the enduring political
loyalty from Mexico's workers and
peasants
85
Economic crisis in 1970s and 1980s
• Huge deficit b/c govt had been trying to spend its way
out of accumulating social and economic problems
w/o raising taxes—fuels inflation
• Over reliance on oil to fund govt and borrow on, then
world wide decline in oil prices in early 1980s
• Presidents de La Madrid (1982-1988) and Salinas
(1988-1995) responded by abandoning protectionist
policies, land reform and adopting neo-lib policies
• Salinas uses “shock therapy” of a sort (price and
wage controls, boost revenues, cutting spending)
86
1990s collapse of the peso
• sudden crash of peso and massive
capital flight in December 1994
• Why: though inflation had declined to
one digit, peso had become
seriously devalued, gov’t decides to
ignore until after election, skittish
investors, inexperienced financial
team after election
• Saved by massive bailout by US
• Suffered huge loss in creditability,
huge wage drop
87
NAFTA
• More diverse economy, though
90% exports go to US
• Manufacturing exports grown at
rate of 75% per year
• Agriculture: b/c of NAFTA, amount
of Mexican food imports from the
US has doubled. This lowers food
prices, helps some exports but
creases a massive crisis for
millions of Mexico's farmers
• FDI increased, though most
goes to Maquiladoras (North)
Farmers say Mexico must
withdraw from the treaty
88
The recession has exposed structural weaknesses in Mexico’s economy.
NAFTA brought a torrent of American investment as manufacturers
set up plants south of the border to take advantage of lower labour
costs. This influx brought modernisation and new technology, and
underpinned rapid economic growth in the late-1990s. . . .
But NAFTA has left Mexico highly
dependent on the health of the
American economy, and on a few
lines of cross-border business in
particular... These include car
manufacturing, the construction
industry and tourism.
89
More evidence of economic liberalization
• Mexico to Repeal '82 Bank Takeovers; Salinas Submits Plan to
End `Paternalism‘ The Washington Post | May 3, 1990| William Branigin | .
• Member WTO (1995) Mexico Joins Canada in WTO Beef
Complaint Vs. US ABC News Dec 2008 Under country-of-origin
labeling, foreign cattle and pigs must be segregated in U.S.
feedlots and packing plants, prompting some firms to only deal w
American livestock. Foreign animals are also required to have
more documentation about where they come from and, in the cas
of cattle, must have tags that indicate they are free of mad cow
disease.)
• Replaced IS with SA
• Reduced power of unions with demise of _______________ism
• And . . . The PROPOSAL to . . .
90
State Oil Industry’s Future Sets Off Tussle in Mexico
A supporter of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former presidential candidate, at a Mexico City
rally in March. His banner, referring to the state oil company, reads, “Pemex is not for sale.” NYT
91
4/8/2008
MEXICO CITY — A bitter debate over what to do about Mexico’s ailing state oil
monopoly has dominated national politics here in recent weeks, tapping strong
emotions on both sides and resurrecting the political fortunes of the leftist leader
who narrowly lost the 2006 presidential election.
Revamping the oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, is perhaps the greatest
challenge facing the administration of President Felipe Calderón, a conservative
economist who won the disputed 2006 election by a hairbreadth.
At stake in the debate is not only the future of the Mexican economy but also the
supply of oil to the United States. Last year, Mexico was the third largest supplier of
crude imports to the American market, after Canada and Saudi Arabia.
The government has neglected the public company for 20 years, siphoning off its
profits. Now production is dropping, reserves are dwindling, and Pemex lacks the
technology to go after undersea oil, the administration says.
To reverse dropping production, Mr. Calderón and his conservative National
Action Party favor permitting some form of joint ventures with private firms to
allow Mexico to tap potential deep-water reserves.
92
But his rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor and
presidential candidate, has called any private investment in Pemex a threat to
national security and has accused Mr. Calderón of secretly seeking to sell off the
industry to private investors, a charge the president denies.
“The government, for 25 years, has acted in a deliberate manner, on purpose, to ruin
Pemex because they have only one goal, to make Pemex into booty to be plundered
and privatize the oil business,” Mr. López Obrador said in an interview.
He has cast the president’s proposals as a threat to national sovereignty, asserting
Mexico “would be condemned to quit being a country and would turn into a colony.”
The leftist leader has skillfully used the issue to catapult himself back onto center stage
in national politics after a year of remaining on the fringes. At mass rallies, he has
threatened blockades of roads, airports and oil wells by his followers if the president
even introduces a bill to Congress.
With leftists promising unrest, President Calderón warned last week that ignoring the
company’s problems would cause a catastrophe.
Yet as of Monday afternoon, Mr. Calderón and his allies in Congress still have not
submitted a bill, an indication of their fears of a tough legislative fight and of mass
protests. Many members of Congress are growing restless as Mr. López Obrador
93
continues to attract attention with his arguments.
The lack of investment in exploration and refineries has left Mexico in dire
straits. Oil production has been falling since 2005. Last year alone, it dropped
5.3 percent, to about 3.1 billion barrels a day.
At the same time, Pemex has begun to exhaust Mexico’s giant offshore
Cantarell Field, one of the world’s largest. Reserves are disappearing, too, as
Pemex pumps oil faster than it can find new deposits. Even exports of crude
are falling.
To make matters worse, the company has failed to build a new refinery
since the 1970s. Mexico now imports about 40 percent of its gasoline, mostly
from the United States.
Against this backdrop, Mr. Calderón’s energy minister, Georgina Kessel, and
Pemex’s director, Jesús Reyes Heroles, unveiled a report last week that said
Pemex needed to enter into joint ventures with other companies to increase its
production.
But the obstacles to such a reform in Congress are formidable. For
starters, a bill that gives Pemex more of its own profits to invest will mean
either cutting government spending or raising taxes. Neither option94
appeals to lawmakers in any party.
In addition, since President Calderón’s party does not control Congress, he must
persuade members of the former governing party, the Institutional Revolutionary
Party, or PRI, to support his bill. If any offer their support, and it is unclear how many
will, the political price they exact from Mr. Calderón would be high, analysts say.
Mr. López Obrador, meanwhile, has managed to define the debate broadly as a question
of national sovereignty. No one in Congress wants to seem to be selling off Mexican oil
reserves to foreign companies.
“They don’t want to talk about anything that might be called privatization by López
Obrador,” said David Shields, an author who has spent his career studying Pemex.
Despite the constitutional ban on foreign investment, the state oil company already buys
technology and services from giant companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger.
The Calderón administration has argued in the past that no foreign company is going to
sell the technology for deepwater drilling without receiving some of the oil found in
return, a position most industry analysts agree with. Recently, however, aides to the
president have backed off that argument, saying they will propose contracts with cash
incentives for discoveries rather than a percentage of production
95
Ever since President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized the oil industry in 1938, Pemex has
been politically sacrosanct. Taking the oil fields back from foreign companies marked a high
point in Mexican history. It was one of the few times Mexico’s leaders stood up to business
interests here and in the United States on behalf of the Mexican public.
So any suggestion of selling off the company to private investors sparks strong protests,
especially from left-leaning parties. “In the rest of the world, oil is a commodity,” said
Hermenegildo Castro, a Senate aide. “In Mexico it is a symbol of sovereignty and nationalism.”
The trouble is the company is also broke and in debt, despite bringing in $100 billion in
revenues last year and enjoying some of the highest crude oil prices in history.
For decades Pemex has been a cash cow for the government. It has milked the
company’s profits to pay for social programs, operating expenses and government
salaries, allowing it to keep taxes low and providing presidents with enough largess to
keep the political peace. About 40 percent of the federal budget comes from the oil company.
Some years the taxes the government has exacted from Pemex have forced the company to
borrow to balance its budget. A corrupt oil-workers union with a penchant for no-show jobs and
lavish perquisites has made matters worse.
The government has starved Pemex so severely that company officials and the Calderón
administration now say the oil giant has neither the money nor the expertise to explore risky,
deep-water oil fields and must enter partnerships with foreign firms, something the Constitution
prohibits.
96
Political Institutions
97
Level of Government:
Supranational: WTO (free trade) , IMF, World
Bank (conditions of loans: structural adjustment
pushed)
WTO Meets in Cancun
summer, 2003
Security is tight
and authorities
have constructed
a metal fence
around the
complex.
Demonstrators have
clashed with police
98
Institutions: Federalism
on paper, federal
•
•
•
emphasis on “municipio libre” (free municipality, able to
control its own affairs)
31 states and the Federal District (Mexico City) State
governors elected for six-year terms; each state has a
local (unicameral) legislature and a governor elected for
3 year terms and has the right to levy state-wide taxes;
each state divided into “municipios” (like our counties)
governed by councils, headed by a mayor
99
Institutions Federalism
In practice—very centralized
• Federal govt (PRI) controlled elections
• governors knew Mexico City and federal
politics, not state they governed
• Senate could and did topple state govts if
state could not provide domestic security
100
Mexico City Legalizes Abortion Early in Term
MEXICO CITY, April 24 2007 — The Mexico City legislature approved a bill Tuesday to
make abortion legal during the first three months of pregnancy, a watershed vote that set
the stage for court battles and social clashes between religious conservatives and
liberals. . . . Proponents of the law say they hope it will become a model for states in
Mexico, most of which only allow abortion under conditions like rape or danger to the
mother’s health.
Many on each side of the issue predicted it would ultimately be challenged on
constitutional grounds before the Supreme Court. Opponents said they would challenge
it on the grounds that there was a prohibition in the Mexican Constitution against the
death penalty that could be broadly interpreted to grant the right to life to unborn
children.
Supporters of the vote argue that in 2002 the Supreme Court ruled that abortion was
legal in circumstances like rape and incest, and therefore they say it is unlikely that the
101
court would agree to overturn the new law.
October 29, 2006
3 Killed in Mexican Protest; Police Move In
OAXACA, Mexico, Oct. 28 — Hundreds of federal riot police
officers and soldiers took up positions outside this besieged
tourist city in southern Mexico on Saturday, poised to end an
increasingly violent protest that has shut the downtown for five
months and left about a dozen people dead
102
Mexican Forces
Move to Retake
Oaxaca
After a five-month standoff in which protesters had occupied the main
square of the colonial city of Oaxaca, federal police armed with water
cannons and backed by heavily armed soldiers advanced on protesters.
By nightfall, they had taken control of the city’s main square, which had
been an encampment of protesters. The protesters seek the removal103
of
the governor of Oaxaca State.
Mexico’s New President Sends
Thousands of Federal Officers to
Fight Drug Cartels
TIJUANA, Mexico, Jan. 6 — President Felipe Calderón ran last summer on a promise to create
jobs, but in his first five weeks as chief executive he has made it clear his first priority is to turn his
government into the scourge of organized crime.
The president has sent thousands of federal police and troops into the drug-plagued states of
Michoacán and Baja California to break up criminal organizations and stop the brutal violence they
perpetuate. The federal forces have burned marijuana crops, arrested suspected drug gang
members and disarmed local police forces the authorities say are crippled by corruption 104
Since 1984 some decentralization:
• limited revenue sharing,
•As opposition begins to win, first in
municipalities and then of states, more
freedom since not beholden to PRI
•with economic crisis, education and
healthcare responsibilities shifted,
•with Fox’s election, much less “extra
constitutional” control by presidents
•See book re funding
105
Institutions: Executive Branch
• “Presidencialismo” until recently
• Power never contested by judicial, legislative
branches
• Presidents had informal power to seat/unseat MCs,
Mayors, Governors, Judges
• Succession: 6 year terms, no reelection, in practice
president picked successor
• Qualifications: 35, native born, not member of clergy
or military
• Powers: issue decrees with force of law, directly
introduce legislation, veto, appoint and remove
106
judges, cabinet, C in Chief
The congress holds two ordinary sessions per
year. The first session begins on November 1 and
continues until no later than December 31; the
second session begins on April 15 and may
continue until July 15. A Permanent Committee
(Comisión Permanente), consisting of thirty-seven
members (eighteen senators and nineteen
deputies), assumes legislative responsibilities
during congressional recesses. The president may
call for extraordinary sessions of congress to deal
with important legislation.
107
• Historically, the Senate consisted of
sixty-four members, two members for
each state and two representing the
Federal District elected by direct vote
for six-year terms. However, as part of
the electoral reforms enacted by the
Salinas government in 1993, the Senate
was doubled in size to 128 members,
with one of each state's four seats going
to whichever party comes in second in
that state. Since 1986 the Chamber of 108
• The powers of the congress include the
right to pass laws, impose taxes,
declare war, approve the national
budget, approve or reject treaties and
conventions made with foreign
countries, and ratify diplomatic
appointments. The Senate addresses
109
all matters concerning foreign policy,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/734
1821.stm
• Mexico legislators storm congress
110
Vicente Fox: elected July 2, 2000
•First president from the
opposition
•PAN
•Campaign promises of
economic policy with a
“human face” and an end to
corruption and rule by “narcopoliticians”
•Former rancher, State
Governor, MC and Coca Cola
general manager
111
•won by a bare 240,000 votes, and his main opponent, Andrés
Manuel López Obrador, a populist former mayor of Mexico City,
•.
•holds advanced degrees in law, economics and public
administration.
• son of one of the Nation Action Party’s founders, he has been
active in politics since he was a youth and became the party’s
youngest leader in its history in 1993.
Felipe
Calderón;
elected July
2006
•Most recently, he served for 13 months in the Fox
administration, first as the head of a development bank and then
as energy minister.
•He served two terms in Congress and proved to be a tough
negotiator when he was the head of the party’s delegation from
2000 to 2003, good at forming coalitions and bridging partisan
112
differences.
Institutions: Legislature
• Chamber of Deputies: 500 member lower house—3 year terms,
revenue bills must originate here, exclusive powers over
appropriations and budget
• Senate: 128 member upper chamber; 6 year terms, exclusive power
over foreign affairs-approves treaties by majority once submitted by
president, power to remove state governors and depose state
legislatures
• “High turnover with “nonreelection” principle: Article 59 of
Constitution provides that Mexican legislators cannot be reelected to
consecutive terms—As a result, from 1970 to 1997 only about 17
percent of Mexican deputies entered the lower house with any
previous legislative experience, effectively depriving Mexico of the
kind of senior lawmakers who dominate the US system.
113
Fistfights in Congress
Rivals in Mexico's Congress have exchanged
punches, just days before President-elect Felipe
Calderon is due to be sworn in to office.
The scuffle occurred after left-wing deputies tried
to take the podium to protest against Friday's
inauguration.
Deputies could be seen throwing punches and
grabbing each other's clothes, and at least one man
ended up on the floor.
PRD members say they
plan to disrupt Friday's
inauguration
BBC 11/28/2006
Members of the left-wing party, the PRD, say Mr
Calderon won July's presidential election by fraud.
The speaker of the chamber, Jorge Zermeno,
suspended the session.
114
Powers of Legislature:
Makes Law: all regular legislation must be approved by both houses and
submitted to president who must publish bill within 10 days or return to bill to
the original chamber ;Congress can override veto with 2/3 vote
Declares War
Approve nominees
Approves budget
Debates: remember, even under PRI, one party dominant, not one party
system
Can deny president right to travel (see below)
115
Fox is told he travels too much
Mexican President Vicente Fox has accused the main
opposition party of blocking progress by denying him
permission to travel to the United States and Canada.
BBC April 2002
116
September 23, 2008
Mexican President Enjoys Newfound Freedom to Fly
MEXICO CITY — On his way to New York for the United Nations General Assembly meeting on Tuesday,
President
Felipe Calderón of Mexico will hop on his presidential jet for the very first time without having to
By
MARC LACEY
ask permission to fire up the engines and go.
Until the Constitution was changed over the summer, Mexican presidents had to seek approval from their
nation’s Congress every time they sought to touch a toe on foreign soil. If the Congress was in an ornery
mood, as it was during former President Vicente Fox’s term, it could — and sometimes did — say no.
Twice, Mr. Fox was embarrassed when lawmakers told him he could not leave the country. The first time
came during a low point in his relations with Congress in 2002, when a trip to the United States and Canada
had to be scratched. Soon after, a planned trip to Australia was grounded because the president’s critics
suggested that Mr. Fox was going there to visit his daughter. A stop in Vietnam for the annual Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation summit meeting was rejected as well.
When Mr. Calderón took office in 2006, after a hard-fought election that ended in a virtual tie, many
speculated that he would spend much of his six-year term stuck in Mexico. After all, his National Action
Party lacks a majority in Congress and some opposition lawmakers do not even recognize him as the
country’s legitimate president.
. . . And the constitutional change, which passed Congress, albeit with plenty of opposition, means that only
presidential treks of more than a week will require the president to approach lawmakers with hat in hand.
Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa has said the change will allow more flexibility in presidential travel
117 and
“increase and strengthen the country’s work overseas.”
Executive-Leg Relations: Changing
•
•
•
•
•
In the past, president dominated b/c unified govt., high discipline and he
was recognized as de facto head of party but now . . .
Evidence Congress more assertive: number of approved bills down, more
legislation originates in Congress
Relns b/w Fox and Congress: his party did not dominate, Fox's
proposed reform of Mexico's tax structure was torpedoed by PRI
and PRD opposition, and Congress blocked his effort to negotiate
a reduction on tariffs for imported sugar. Mexico's upper house
even used its constitutional power to bar Fox from traveling to
the United States in April 2002, complaining that the president
was not paying enough attention to domestic politics.
After 2006 elections—well fistfights to protest inauguration don’t
bode well; PAN controls president and has largest block in
Congress but not enough to govern alone: divided govt
2009 elections: now PRI has largest block
118
Electoral Reforms of 1990s
What: Electoral reforms-cost a billion dollars but did improve elections
When: in 1993-1994 and 1996, Salinas govt
Why: build up domestic and international credibility for 1994 elections
How:
• high tech, photo id cards issued to entire 42.5 million person electorate
• Federal Electoral Institute strengthened, given more autonomy, PRI
denied a majority
• Independent tribunals to investigate, special prosecutor to investigate
violations of electoral laws, new electoral crimes defined
• Legalized international observers and independent Mexican citizens
observers formally recognized
• Exit polls authorized and publicly announced on election night
• Ceilings on contributions
• increased public funding for all parties
119
• Threshold for PR: 2%
Electoral System for Congress-- mixed
•
•
The Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies)
500 members, three year term, 300 members
elected in single-seat constituencies and 200
members elected by proportional representation in
multi-seat constituencies (threshold 2%)
The Cámara de Senadores (Chamber of Senators)
128 members, six year term , 96 of them in three
seat constituencies and 32 by proportional
representation. In the constituencies two seats are
awarded to the plurality winner and one to the first
runner-up.
120
Electoral system for Lower house of
Congress : mixed
Election of Lower Chamber through the principle of relative
majority: The elections of the 300 SMD through the principal of relative
majority is conducted in 300 SMD. The distribution of the 300 districts
among the 32 federal entities is established according to the percentage
of the population living in each of them. Therefore, the results of the
census of population and dwelling must be considered. This census is
carried out every 10 years in Mexico. The constitution establishes that no
entity may have less than 2 federal SMD.
Election of Lower Chamber Members through the principle of
proportional representation: The election of the 200 Lower Chamber
members through the principle of proportional reprensentation is carried
out by means of regional voters list in 5 multi-member districts. 40
Lower Chamber members are elected in each of these districts. 121
Threshold 2%
Electoral system for Upper house of Congress : mixed
Electoral system for Composition of the Upper Chamber: The Upper
Chamber of Senate is composed by 128 members. 3 senators are
elected in every one of the 32 federal enitities. For this purpose, the
political parties must register a list with 2 formulas for their conidates.
2 of the seats are allocated through the relative majority principle, that
is, they belong to the party that obtained the largest number of votes.
The 3rd one is appointed through the 1st minority principle, that is, to
the party that obtained the 2nd largst amount of votes.
The remaining 32 seats are appointed by means of the PR system
according to voter rolls in one single, national multi-member district.
122
Electoral System for
President
• Plurality
• Note: 6 year terms,
can not be reelected
123
Institutions: Judicial Branch
• Structured like US with a Supreme Court and
courts at local and state level
• 11 Sup Ct justices, nominated by Pres for 15
year terms; approved by Senate
• Powers—under PRI—not independent; public
perception judicial system still corrupt, esp. at
local level
• new reforms in 1996 give Supreme Court
124
judicial review; now more assertive
The Mexican legal system is based on Spanish
civil law (based on the Napoleonic code) with some influence of
the common law tradition. Unlike the United States version of the
common law system, under which the judiciary enjoys broad powers
of jurisprudence, Spanish civil law is based upon strict adherence to
legal codes and minimal jurisprudence.
125
August 28, 2008
Mexico Court Is Set to Uphold Legalized Abortion in
Capital
By ELISABETH MALKIN
MEXICO CITY — A majority of Supreme Court justices have said Mexico City’s law
legalizing abortion does not violate the Constitution, making it likely that the court will
uphold the controversial measure.
Since deliberations began this week, 8 of the 11 justices spoke in support of the law.
Its passage last year was considered historic in this Catholic country and in a region
where almost all countries severely restrict abortion or ban it.
The law allows unrestricted abortions in the first trimester of pregnancy.
A ruling upholding the law would be a setback for the conservative federal government
of President Felipe Calderón, which filed a legal challenge a month after the city
legislature approved the law.
126
Mexico Court Is Set to
Uphold Legalized
Abortion in Capital
Protesters placed crosses on Mexico City’s main square to represent
12,500 abortions since the city legalized them last year.
127
System of Law
• Derives from Roman and
Napoleonic traditions
• Explicit; highly formalized
• Constitution long and
relatively easy to amend
(eg electoral reforms)
• Administrative law created
by regulatory agencies
128
Institutions: Military
• Historically—military intervenes
• One of biggest accomplishments of revolution
is to establish civilian control
• Institutional loyalty tested in 2000 but civilian
control won out
• Human rights abuses in Chiapas, and in
dealing with drug and security problems
129
Institutions- Political
Parties and Public
Policies
02/07/12
130
Institutions: Party system
•
•
•
•
Under PRI: “one party dominant” (contrast to China)
Means opposition parties were tolerated and held seats
But PRI maintained key positions and co-opted opposition
Now 3 party system (though even more represented in
Congress) but two party in most of the country: North and
West—PAN vs PRI; South and West PRI vs PRD, Mexico City
all three
131
Institutions: PRI
• Inclusive party with no clear ideology
• Founded in 1929, become increasing
indistinguishable from the state
• Who supports: in last four elections,
older, less wealthy, less educated,
union membership (weird- why?)
• Even with historic defeat in 2000 PRI
is still a strong party—Until 2006,
majority in Senate, largest plurality in
CD, more than half of governorships;
2009 largest plurality again
PRI comeback - a blow for
Presidential PAN
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/worl
d/americas/3052124.stm
132
PRI CONTROL—
many ways:
Electoral fraud: stuffing ballot boxes, disqualifying opposition
party poll watchers, relocating polling places at the last minute to
sites known only to PRI supporters, manipulating voter
registration lists, padding them with nonexistent or non resident
PRI supporters or “shaving off” those who were expected to vote for
opposition, giving multiple voting credentials to PRI supporters, confiscating
credentials of opposition voters, or buying them for material benefits,
organizing carruseles (‘flying brigades”) of PRI supporters transported by
truck or van to vote at several different polling places . Plus, they held
majority representation in state and local government entities that
controlled vote counting and certification—most common was to add votes
for PRI (instead of taking away from opposition) so that sometimes total
number of voters exceed total number of registered voters or even adults
133
Control though system of corporatism:
Refers to a political or economic system in which power is given to civic
assemblies that represent economic, industrial, agrarian, social, cultural, and
professional groups. These civic assemblies are known as corporations.
Corporations are unelected bodies with an internal hierarchy; their purpose is
to exert control over the social and economic life of their respective areas.
Thus, for example, a steel corporation would be a cartel composed of all the
business leaders in the steel industry, coming together to discuss a common
policy on prices and wages. When the political and economic power of a
country rests in the hands of such groups, then a corporatist system is in place.
134
•PRI organized society into 3 sectors: Labor, Peasant, Popular
•each sector rept by one “peak association” (1) Confederacion
de Trabajadores de Mexico (CTM) for labor sector, (2)
Confederacion National Campesino (CNC) for Peasants and the
Confederacion National de Organizacions Populares (CNOP) for
Popular
•Associations get a seat at the table for policy negations,
subsidies, jobs for leaders
135
Corporatism
Pluralism
•Single “peak” assoc. reps a
societal interest
•Compulsory/universal
membership
•Central organization
•Groups systematically
involved in making and
implementing policy
•State grants “favored status”
•Multiple groups can rep. a
single interest
•Non-compulsory
membership
•Decentralized organization
•Clear sep IG/govt
•In competition among groups
for policy not all groups equal
136
Interest Groups
Corporatist system breaks down in 1990s—rising civil
society and opposition parties give alternatives
economic crisis means less money for patronage,
pork, electoral competition –IG SYSTEM now more
pluralist
137
Control through Patron Client system
• Patron Clientelism “camarilla”
– System of cliques of personal connections
fueled by charismatic leaders
– Patron-Client network extends from the
political-elites through a variety of votemobilizing organizations throughout the
country
138
PATRON CLIENT RELATIONS ILLUSTRATED
During the PRI's long rule millions of Mexicans lived in extreme poverty. During
the 1990s over 17,000 people survived as pepenedores, garbage pickers who
lived and worked in Mexico City's rat-infested garbage landfills. Journalist Alma
Guillermoprieto describes how the PRI web of patron-client relationships
extended all the way down to the lowly pepenedores. 2 She argues that
garbage dump caciques were able to use patron-client relationships to provide
services for the garbage pickers and, most important, to protect their jobs
against government officials seeking to move them out of the dumps. One
community of pepenedores was awarded a neighborhood of homes across the
street from a dump, complete with a school and running water. With this
extension of aid, the PRI secured the support of some of Mexico's most
destitute voters.—
139
Decline of PRI
1. 1990’s Election Reform
• Lost “incumbency advantages”
2. Demographic changes- population has
shifted to urban areas (esp Mexico
City)
3. Economic Crisis of the 1980’s
140
Campaign Finance Reform
• Before: no reporting of private donations and PRI
used unlimited public funds
• 93-94: private contributions limited to $650,000
• 96- private contributions further limited, public funds
for all parties
• Yet problems still continue- PEMEX funneled $140 to
PRI in 2000 through one of its sectors (corporatist)
• Since PRI- No buying tv or radio adds (instead rely
on free media time)
141
PAN
•Founded in 1939 in response to
leftward drift of Cardenas; oldest
opposition party
•center-right, with strong elements
of Christian socialism
•Who supports: northern border
Victory for Fox 2003
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/813206.stm
states and north central states,
NOT rural
•Plagued by internal divisions
142
PAN Platform
1. Expanding states rights, especially in the form of
more revenue-sharing
2. Proportional Representation- both chambers of
Congress
3. Voting Reform bills
4. Neoliberal economic policies (NAFTA)
5. Yet some interesting ones…
• Profit sharing b/w businesses and employees
• National consumer protection agency
143
Victory in 2006 elections
(still no majority)
2009 Elections: Chamber of
Deputies: - seats by
party—PRI 241, PAN 147,
PRD 72, PVEM 17, PT 9,
AN 8, convergence 8,
In Aguascalientes on Saturday Jan 2006, Mr. Calderón (PAN
candidate) reached out to farmers.
144
Note you need 251 for a majority
2009 Elections: Chamber of Deputies: - seats by party—PRI 241, PAN 147, PRD
72, PVEM 17, PT 9, AN 8, convergence 8,
2006 Elections
Chamber of Deputies - seats by party - PAN 206, PRD 127, PRI 103, PVEM 18,
CD 17, PT 16, other 13 (500 total) ;
Senate: seats by party - PRI 33, PAN 52, PRD 26, , PVEM 6, CD 5, PT 5,
independent 1;
2003 elections – Chamber of Deputies PRI: 224; PAN 149; PRD 97; PVEM 17;
PT 6; CD5; independents 2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_legislative_election,_2003
2000 elections –
Chamber of Deputies: PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change” 221; PRI: 211; PRD,
PT, PAS, CD PSN “Alliance for Mexico” 68 total 500
Senate PAN and PVEM “Alliance for Change “51, PRI 60, PRD, PT, PAS, CD PSN
“Alliance for Mexico” 17 total 128
1997 elections
145
Chamber of Deputies: PRI 239; PRD 125; PAN 121; PT 7; PVEN 6 total 500
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD
• formed: In 1980s a leftist faction in
PRI, led by Cardenas, son of former
president, left PRI and formed PRD
• Opposes neo-liberal reforms and
neglect of poor Mexicans, calls for
more nationalist and protectionist
policies
• who supports: Mexico City and the
rural south, urban working class
• Left has historically been weak due to
internal divisions
• PRI also reduced revenue-sharing to
state governments controlled by the
PRD)
• Have also prosed a parliamentary
system
March 2002 the PRD elected
a new leader, Rosario
Robles, the first woman to
lead a major Mexican party.
Robles is a former member
of Congress and popular
former mayor of Mexico City.
A former student activist, she
is an outspoken opponent to
146
free-market policies
2006 election Platform:
•He promises to cut the salaries of top government officials and the
president himself. He vows to do away with lavish pensions for expresidents. He says he will slash wasteful government spending and
root out corruption in the government and entities like the stateowned oil monopoly, Pemex.
•He says that with the savings that will rack up, he will establish
food subsidies for the elderly, monthly stipends for the disabled,
free health care, free education through college, and aid for single
mothers. He also pledges to cut the costs of electricity, natural gas
and gasoline, all of which are relatively expensive in Mexico despite
its oil reserves.
•Mr. López Obrador also says he wants to renegotiate the free trade
agreement with the United States to protect more farmers and workers
in other weak sectors."The next president of Mexico will not be a
puppet of anyone," he said here on Thursday, a veiled suggestion that
Mr. Fox has been too closely allied with Washington. Then he added,
"We are going to protect our markets as they do in the rest of the
world."
Andrés Manuel
López Obrador
campaigning last
week in
Tehuantepec on a
swing through
Oaxaca State. NYT
March 19, 2006
147
Social Capital:
• Refers to the institutions, relationships attitudes and
values that govern interactions among people in
society and contribute to economic and social
development. It includes the shared values and
rules for social conduct expressed in personal
relationships, trust and a common sense of "civic"
responsibility, which make a society more than just a
collection of individuals.
148
Public Policy
courses.dce.harvard.edu/. ../archive_0.html
Many would-be migrants at the
US border are intercepted
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/a
149
mericas/country_profiles/1210779.
stm
Economic Policy
1. 40’s-70’s Mexican Miracle
• But Increasing gaps b/w rich and poor
• Mixed economy- state provided financing resources
more than private banks
• State owned companies- PEMEX (oil)
• Growth 6-7%
• Rural areas- 70% poverty
• More subsidies spending than social programs
150
1980’s-90’s Economic Crisis
1. Huge debt payments, had to reduce social
spending further
2. Oil prices plummeted
3. Real wages fell by 67%
4. Peso devaluation of mid 90’s
5. Nearly 50% poverty level, and 25% extreme
poverty
6. By 1987, Mexico was one of the most heavily
indebted countries in the world- 70% of GDP
151
Fox and Calderon
•
•
•
•
•
Neolibearlism- Privatization programs (Televisa)
Lowered taxes encouraged maquilladores (factories)
Oportunidades- safety net for job losses
Seguro Popular- goal is universal health coverage
Covers underemployed, rural workers, and
unemployed
• Low premiums, 20% don’t have to pay any premiums
152
Lawlessness
• epidemic of violent street crimes—
armed robberies, muggings,
kidnappings, rapes and homicide
• Gov’t not dealing with it well
• High percentage of violent crimes
related to operation of drug cartels
A tunnel used to
transport drugs to
the US from
153
Mexico
Drug Trafficking
• Fight began in 2005 with raid on La Palma maximum
security prison
• Fox promised to get rid of corruption but the problem
continued to grow during his presidency
• Calderon- stepped up war on drugs
• Reliance on federal troops
• Result- murder rate continues to spiral out of control
154
Corruption
• Flourished under long dominance of
PRI
•Democratization, increased
transparency (FOIA now), improved
judicial reforms may help—though drug
trafficking complicates
•Still a tough problem—hampers
legitimacy: eg from BBC Feb 22 2005
“Mexico has been shaken by the arrest
of a senior member of President
Vicente Fox's staff on suspicion of
leaking information to drugs
traffickers”
Police corruption impedes
effective policy against
traffickers from “Mexico
fights spectre of
narcopolitics”
“http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/h
i/americas/4247859.stm
155
Human Rights Violations
•
•
•
Though not as bad as some Latin Am
nations, PRI did maintain control in
part thru govt sponsored violence
against protestors (1968)
throughout the 1990s, Human Rights
groups documented wide spread use
of torture, summary executions and
disappearances sponsored by govt
Fox promises to improve, FOIA
passed under his administration to
make it easier to open archives on
human rights violations
The UN has criticized Mexico's
handling of the Juarez murders
(400 abductions/murders, rape,
mass graves, since 1993; recent
7 and 10 year old
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/a
mericas/4584951.stm 156
A black cross and the word "justice" painted on a lamp post in
Ciudad Juárez, Mexico in support of finding an end to the more than
370 murdered women in Juárez and Chihuahua
Demand Justice for the Women and Girls of Ciudad Juárez and
Chihuahua, México
Amnesty International
157
Immigration
• Fox- pushed for guest worker program,
amnesty, increasing visas and
movement in return for tighter Mexican
border control
• Calderon has been highly critical of
increasing US border security
158
• Internal: rural to urban,
South to North
• External to US: dates back
to Bracero Program,
Immigration Reform 1987
sanctions employers, both
Fox and Bush pledge to
address; Bush’s Guest
Worker program
• Migration rate –4.57 -3.61
migrant(s)/1,000 population
(2009 est.)
• country comparison to the world:
Migration
President Bush has said a deal on
Mexican immigration is a priority
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/
4183447.stm
159
Today there are almost 11 million Mexicans living in the U.S.
(about 10 percent of Mexico's total population, and four percent
of the U.S. population). According to some estimates, the
amount of foreign exchange sent to Mexico by Mexicans living
outside the country has grown to almost $20 billion dollars
annually, making it the largest single source of foreign
exchange (even larger than revenue earned from oil exports).
NYT March 2006
160
More than 400 Mexicans died in 2005
trying to enter the United States
(though in only two cases was the
Border Patrol involved). That looms
large in Mexican consciousness.
Every Mexican knows someone who
has crossed the border, if they haven't
done so themselves. The harder and
more dangerous it gets, the more
Mexican public opinion may turn
against the United States. The free
movement of goods, but not of labour,
across the border was always likely to
cause problems Economist Jan 12,
2006
161
Environment
• Policy difficulties reflect priorities of
developing countries
• Air pollution in Mexico City: 88% of
the days are above acceptable levels
of air pollution for humans
• air pollution also has intensified along
the border with the US because of
the growing number of maquiladoras,
as well as the increased truck traffic
with the United States.
162
Mexico City pollution eroding residents’ sense of smell
Officials have taken steps to address the problem. In 1989, the city
introduced “Hoy No Circula,” a program in which cars with license
plates ending in certain numbers would be prohibited from driving
on a given day of the week.
A Mexican flag is barely visible in the smog-filled skies over Mexico City. (AP/Roberto Velazquez)
163
Other Environmental Problems
From the CIA Factbook
• scarcity of hazardous waste disposal facilities;
• rural to urban migration;
• natural fresh water resources scarce and polluted in
north, inaccessible and poor quality in center and
extreme southeast;
• raw sewage and industrial effluents polluting rivers in
urban areas;
• deforestation; widespread erosion; desertification;
deteriorating agricultural lands
164
political party An organized group that makes nominations and contests elections in
the hope of influencing the personnel and policy of government.
single-member-plurality system (SMP) An electoral system in which the candidate
with the most votes wins, even though that win may not represent 51% of the votes.
single-party system A party system in which there exists only one party and no
political alternatives are legally tolerated.
one-party-dominant system A party system in which there are political alternatives
but a single political party dominates the political process as a result of the
overwhelming support of the electorate.
two-party system A party system in which there are two credible contenders for power
and either is capable of winning any election
two-party-plus system A party system in which there are two major contenders for
power of approximately equal strength plus one or more minor parties able to win
165 seats
but not to control the government.