2
New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based
Decisions
 Prospect ~ Alternatives
 Fire Fighter Exposure Budget -- Hour/Days
 Course Of Action – Strategy To Be Implemented
Three Components of A Safe And Productive Unit
3
2
Principles of an HRO :
 Watch for Weak Signals of Failure
 Suspicious of Simple Interpretations
Risk
Mgt
 Focus on Ongoing Operations
 Capacity for Flex and Bounce Back
 Locate and Defer to Expertise
2
1
Version # 3
(HRO = Highly Reliable Organization)
Flexible
Learning
Reporting
Be willing to
share concerns
Fair or Just
Respect
feedback
Safety Culture
Be a student
Rules don’t and can’t
cover every situation
Regional Forester Representative Team
Strategic Risk Assessment (SRA)
During an incident…….
From the Agency Administrator Perspective
Helps Us Successfully Manage Risk During A
Wildland Fire
2
2
What Is Successful Mgt of Risk?
Safely Managing Inherent Risks In A Manner
That Meets Reasonable Objectives With Least
Exposure To Incident Responders.
2
Risk
Probability And Severity Of An Undesirable
Outcome Linked To Hazards.
Hazards
Undesirable Outcome
2
Exposure
Exposing Fire Fighters To Hazards That May
Result In Injury Or Possibly Death
Aviation
Fire Fighters
Be Cognizant Of Moving
Risk To Private Sector
Public
2
Three Levels of Risk Management
Strategic
Time Data Decision
Space
Decision (COA)
Strategic
Risk
Assessment
Unit
Deliberate
IMT
Time Critical
Operational
COA = Course Of Action
2
Outline For Strategic Risk Assessment
Preseason Work
1
1. Risk Assessment
2. Risk Analysis
3. Risk Communication
4. Risk Sharing
Risk Decision (COA)
Periodic Assessment
Corporate Scale 10
See Template Handout
COA = Course Of Action
2
Risk Assessment
 What Values Are At Risk?
•
•
RAVAR – Rapid Assessment Values At Risk
Natural Resources
 What Is The Likelihood Of Harm?
•
•
FSPro – Fire Spread Probability
RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process
 What Are The Consequences Of Harm?
 What Are The Potential Benefits?
 Etc
2
Risk Analysis
 What Are Your Objectives?
 What Alt Offers The Best Tradeoffs?
 How Much FF Exposure Will Be Required?
 What Are The Tradeoffs Of FF Exposure, Impacts
to the Public, Political Fallout, and Impacts to
Natural Resource?
Prospect 1
PROSPECT INPUT
A: # of
Resource
Units
Resource Type
COST
B: Persons Per C: Days
Resource Unit Needed
EXPOSURE
Total PersonHours
Exposure
Exp Hrs/Ss/DayExp Hrs/Day (Unadjusted)
Rate Per
Day
Total Rate
Ω
Total PersonHours Exposure
(Adjusted)
$ 1,072,368
14
168
40,320
1.3
52,416
T1 Crews
12
20
12
$ 7,447
T2 IA Crews
22
20
10
$ 8,155
$ 1,794,100
14
140
61,600
1.0
61,600
T2 Crews
20
$ 8,155
$
-
14
0
0
1.1
0
Fellers
2
$ 1,465
$
-
14
0
0
1.0
0
Engines
3
$ 1,210
$
-
14
0
0
1.0
0
Dozers
1
$ 1,456
$
-
14
0
0
1.1
0
Water Tender(s)
1
$ 1,440
$
-
14
0
0
1.1
0
Fixed Wing A/C
2
$ 2,000
$
-
6
0
0
1.0
0
Type 1 Helicopters
1
$ 4,000
$
-
6
0
0
1.1
0
Type 2 Helicopters
1
$ 1,773
$
-
6
0
0
1.0
0
Type 3 Helicopters
1
$ 1,008
$
-
6
0
0
1.0
0
Overhead (line)
$
826
$
-
14
0
0
1.0
0
Overhead (camp)
$
826
$
-
14
0
0
1.0
0
$
$ 2,866,468
14
0
308
0
101,920
1.0
0
114,016
Other: ______________
Totals
34
Prospect 1 Totals:
Total Responder Exposure
(Adjusted): Hours
Total Estimated Cost:
114,016
$ 2,866,468
72
22
FF = Fire Fighter
2
Risk Communication
 Have Stakeholders Been Consulted?
 Has Risk Assessment & Analysis Been Shared?
 Are Stakeholder’s Reactions Documented?
• Understanding
• Degree Of Acceptance
• Degree Of Support
• Reactions
• Concerns
2
Risk Sharing
 Dialogue Draft Decision With Oversight Officials
• Risk Assessment
• Risk Analysis
• Risk Communication
 Example, Engagement with:
• Regional Forester
•
Political
2
Risk Decision
 Using Results From:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis
Risk Communication
Risk Sharing
 Document The Formal Risk Decision:
•
•
•
Objectives: State Overall Objectives for Managing Wildfire
Decision: Course Of Action To Implement Desirable Prospect
Rationale:
 Best Protects Life and Property
 Minimizes FF Exposure Required To Meet Objectives
 Reasonably Safe For FF To Implement
•
Periodic Assessment: Document Your Intentions To Monitor.
FF = Fire Fighter
WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System
SRA
1.Assessment
2.Analysis
3.Communication
4.Sharing
Decision
2
Strategic Risk Assessment Summary:




Defines Objectives
Documents Decision and COA
Guides Deliberate & Time Critical Risk Assessment
Provides Documentation For FLAME Act
Time
SRA
Deliberate
Data Decision
Space
(Unit)
(IMT)
Time Critical (Operational)
COA = Course of Action
WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System
SRA
1. Assessment
2. Analysis
3. Communication
4. Sharing
Decision
Making SRA Value Added
Gather:
• Line Officer
• Fire Management Officer
• Resource advisor(s)
• Recorder
Discuss elements of SRA:
1. Assessment
2. Analysis
3. Communication
4. Sharing
Recorder:
• Documents Discussion
Using SRA Template
• Paste into WFDSS
Periodic Assessment
2
Early Warning Alert!
Change is coming in FY11
National Changes For Funding Large WF
Stems From Past Expenditures On Managing Wildfires &
Impacts On Agency Budgets. Culminating In:
Among others things:
For Type 1 And 2 Incidents, The Forest
Service Requires Agency Administrators to
Develop and Document Their Risk
Management Decision, i.e. Follow SRA
Process
2
2
Fire Suppression Funding Changing - 2011+
(Continued)
 Rebased To Reflect Actual Expenses
 Based On 5 Yr Moving Average
 Initial Attack and Extended Attack
 RF’s Accountable
CR?
?
 Reimburses T1 & T2 Fires
 Secretarial Concurrence Based On SRA
 Decisions Not Receiving Concurrence, Funded In Dispute
 Requires A Presidential Declaration
 Audit Trail Of Risk Decisions Made For Type 1 And 2
Fires Is Used For Declaration
How SRA Will Be Used
SRA
2010
We
Practiced
2011
Continue
with SRA
1. Assessment
2. Analysis
3. Communication
4. Sharing
Decision
Type 1 & 2 Fires
FLAME Act
FF safety
2
Lets Have A Conversation
Reflections
Comments
Concerns