ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT
GROUP # 3
Kunhui Cai,
Madan Chauhan,
Jim Jacaruso,
Manoj Pant,
Vinay Srivastava,
Yoji Tsubaki
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Theory of Asymmetric Conflict
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Asymmetric Conflict is a term that describes a military situation in
which two belligerents of unequal power or capacity of action ,
interact and take advantage of the strength and weaknesses of
themselves and enemies. The interaction often involves strategies
and tactics outside the bounds of conventional warfare.
( Wikipedia)
Synonymous with Terrorism/ Not synonymous with Terrorism?
Two Schools:
1) Descriptive in nature and Asian in its approach: It assumes that
asymmetric and indirect are synonyms. Indirect warfare as
described by Sun Tzu, Mao Tse-tung, B.H. Liddell-Hart…. Mao
advises that one should come from the East and yet attack from
the West..
2) Reductive . ..Political scientist believe that asymmetric conflict
involves two actors – ‘strong’ and ‘weak’. Demographic, military
and scientific strengths.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
…Theory and Concept
Other definitions
– a) Defined by transformational use of familiar and
unfamiliar ‘capability clusters’ or by pitting of different
organizational structures against each other.
– b) Involves states of unequal aggregate power capabilities,
measured in terms of material resources i.e. size,
demography, military capability and economic prowess,
strategy and tactics. (T.V. Paul)
– c) Asymmetric warfare is “leveraging inferior tactical or
operational strength against the vulnerabilities of a
superior opponent to achieve disproportionate effect with
the aim of undermining the opponent’s will in order to
achieve the asymmetric actor’s strategic
objectives.(Kenneth McKenzie).
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
…Theory and Concepts
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“If you use pressure, we will deploy pressure and force. We know
that you can harm us although we do not threaten you. But we
too can harm you. Everyone can cause harm according to their
ability and their size. We cannot come all the way to you in the
United States, but individual Arabs may reach you.”
-Saddam Hussein, 1990
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Put simply, asymmetric threats or techniques are a version of not
"fighting fair.”
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Asymmetric strategy may not only sidestep opponents or hit
them where they ain’t but also go over them ( Desert Storm), or
under them( terrorist attacks or cyber attacks).
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
SOME THOUGHTS ?
Trends in correlations of war data show that strong actors
have been losing more asymmetric conflicts.
A)1800-1849: 34 asymmetric conflicts .
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88.2% won by strong actors.
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Greek war of Indep,
US second seminole war,1835-42,
First Zulu War 1838-42,
First British Afghan War 1838-42.
B)1850-1899:69 asymmetric conflicts,
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79.5 % won by strong actors.
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The Second Opium War1856-60,
Second Schleswig-Holstein war,1864,
The Russo-Turkoman War 1878-81,
The Second Boer War1899-1902.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Trends…
C)1900-1949: 31 asymmetric conflicts,
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65.1% won by strong actors.
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Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905,
The First Balkan War1912-1913,
The Iraqi-British Conflict1920-1921,
The US –Nicaraguan Conflict1927-1933.
D)1950-1998:36 asymmetric conflict
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45% won by strong actors,.
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South vietnam,1961-65,
The Anglo Portugal War 1961-75,
The Mozambique Conflict1964-75,
The Russo- Chechen War 1994-96.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
REASONS FOR SUCH A TREND
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The Nature of the Actor (Structural) : Democratic v/s
Authoritarian type of regime.
Arms Diffusion (Technological): Diffusion of relatively advanced
small arms in Developing World raised the costs of conquest for
strong actors.
The Growth of militant Nationalism ( Cultural): ideological
asymmetries, national liberationists were more committed and
willing to lay their lives.
The role of relative Resolve/ interests (Psychological): Relative
vulnerability vis-à-vis relative power and interests. For strong
actors survival is not at risk so have lower interest.
Strategic interactions ( Strategic/ conceptual): Wrong politicomilitary strategy against weak actor may result in losing. The
Key variable is Time. Delay favors weak!
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
What guides Weaker Power to go to Conflict with Stronger
power( T V Paul)
1.
Politico –Military Strategy in asymmetric war
initiation
 blitzkrieg (lightning strike)
 attrition/maneuver
 limited aims/fait accompli.
2.
Offensive weapons , limited capability and
asymmetric war initiation
3.
Alliance Support and war calculation
4.
Domestic Structure and asymmetric war initiation
5.
Time Pressure
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
SOME EXAMPLES
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Use of terrorism by much lesser Mongol
forces in the creation and control of the
Mongol Empire.
Non violent struggle by Mahatma Gandhi
Israel and Palestine warfare.
India-Pakistan: Kargil warfare.
U.S. – Cuba Conflict.
China- Taiwan Conflict.
North Korea- South Korea .
U.S.- Iran Conflict.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
WHY US – IRAN CONFLICT IS ASYMMETRIC
1.
UNEQUAL POWER BASE
2.
LEVERAGING TACTICS
3.
TERRORISM
4.
RELIGIOUS
5.
DESIRE TO RISE
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
US - Iranian History
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1883 - U.S and Persia appoint diplomatic envoys
1941 - Allied Powers force Shah to abdicate throne to
his more pro-allies son. Allied Forces use Iran as
staging base for re-supply of Russian forces in WWII.
1951 - Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh tries to
nationalize oil industry and limit the power of Shah
1953 - American and British intelligence services
sponsor a coup that overthrows Mossadegh.
1963/64 - Shah’s White Revolution. Ayatollah
Khomeini exiled for denunciation of Shah’s status of
forces bill for US Military Personnel.
1965/72 - America provides significant military support
to Iran. Shah leverages Iran’s strategic position in US
containment policy.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
US - Iranian History
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1978 - Iranian Islamic Revolution Council is formed
1979 - Shah is forced into exile - later enters US for
cancer treatment - students seize US embassy and
diplomats beginning a 444 day hostage crises.
1980 - President Carter severs diplomatic ties with
Iran - expels Iranian diplomats from US
1980 - Iraq invades Iran leading to a 10 year war
during which the US openly supports Iraq.
1982 - American supported Lebanese Christian forces
kidnap Iranian diplomats - begins a nine year period
of kidnapping of western hostages.
1983 - Bombing of US embassy and US Marine
Barracks in Beirut - US places blame/suspicion for
both events on Iranian supported Hezbollah
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
US - Iranian History
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1984 - Bombing of Embassy annex in Beirut - US
says Hezbollah known to have been involved
1985/86 - Iran-Contra scandal
1988 – USS Vincennes shoots down Iranian Airliner
over the gulf killing 290. Iran views this as evidence
the US was going to get involved in the Iran - Iraq war.
Two weeks later Khomeini accepts UN brokered
cease-fire with Iraq
1990 - Iran remains neutral in US led war against Iraq
denouncing both the US and Iraq
1993 - President Clinton takes office - institutes a
policy to isolate Iran
1995 - Clinton signs an executive order banning all
trade with Iran.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
US - Iranian History
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1996 - Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia - 19
US service personnel killed - Hezbollah blamed.
Iran - Lybia Sanctions act passed.
1999 - US eases sanctions against state supporters of
terrorism
2000 - US officially acknowledges US role in 1953
coup but does not apologize.
2001 - US releases 46 count indictment against
unidentified Iranians in the Khobar Towers case.
Iran condemns US air strikes in Afghanistan yet
agrees to perform search and rescue missions for US
pilots downed in Iran.
Iranian President denounces Osama Bin Laden and
rejects US assertions that Iran supports terrorism.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
US & IRAN
Current Relationship
2001, President Bush unfreezes the Nuclear program
– 2002 - President Bush refers to Iran as part of an Axis of evil
and states they are pursuing WMD and Terrorist Activities
– Defense Secretary Rumsfeld links Iran to suicide attacks in
Israel
– 2003, IAEA reports that Iran is Enriching Uranium
– Since then:
– US asserts that Iran is supporting terrorists
– Iran asserts that US is violating Iranian sovereignity
– 2007, US arrests Iranian diplomats in Iraq
– UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran
– Iran arrests 15 British Sailors for venturing into Iranian Waters
Is War Imminent?
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PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Tracing the Conflict
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US MEDIA PORTRAYAL OF IRAN
Iran is the country that grabbed U.S. embassy officials as
hostages and then embarked on a series of terror strikes
against U.S. targets.
Iranians will stop at nothing to preserve their homeland – the
taking of hostages, terrorism, and nuclear weapons are just
instruments for them to scare America out of their backyard.
IRANIANS VIEW OF AMERICA
America remains an enemy that has repeatedly expressed its
desire to overthrow the Iranian government.
Most Iranians believe the Khat e-Imam took the American
embassy to destroy its network of spies and put an end to
American plans to launch a military coup in Iran
US INTENTIONS
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
ISSUES
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OIL
Nuclear Aspirations
Regional Balance of Power
Support of Terrorism
UN Sanctions
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Issues involved
Issue 1: Petro$
BY 2010, US NEEDS 50 MILLION BARRELS A DAY
OF OIL
While many regions of the world offer great oil
opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of
the world's oil and the lowest cost, is still where
the prize ultimately lies.
PETRODOLLARS AND OIL TRADE
The world buys and sells oil in dollars, meaning
that all the countries of the world subsidise the
US economy as the US has a monopoly on
printing dollars.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Issues involved
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The oil-producing countries have to trade in dollars
and any country wanting to buy oil must first
acquire dollars which can only be obtained by
trading with the US, that is, buying US products
and services.
This means that trillions of dollars are traded
daily on the major currency exchanges, based in
Washington, DC and in London.
The surplus generated through these
exchanges and sales of US financial instruments
subsidizes an otherwise bankrupt US economy.
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN OIL TRADE
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Over the past four years the value of the euro
has appreciated by 13% against the dollar making
it a preferred currency to sell oil with, hence
Iraq’s switch to the euro in 2002
Upcoming establishment of an Iranian oil
bourse based on euros which presents a direct
threat to the power of the US dollar
Venezuela to trade its oil in euros and in spite
of the US’s military supremacy, the US economy
is in serous trouble if Iran and Venezuela go
ahead with the switch
Countries such as Russia are mixing oil sales
using a ‘basket’ of currencies
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Nuclear Issues
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The IAEA reported in 2003, that Iran had hidden a
Uranium enrichment program for 18 years.
Western Members of IAEA called on Iran to commit
itself to stopping all enrichment activities permanently,
but it has refused to do so and has abandoned the
temporary halt as well.
The clash with Iran escalated in Feb 2006, when the
IAEA as a whole reported Iran to Security Council and
in March Security Council decided to take up the issue
after receiving the copy of the report on Iran.
UN had issued dead line to suspend Uranium
enrichment program which ended on 21st Feb 2007,
but Iran ignored the UN deadline.
UNSC slaps sanctions on Iran in March 2007
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
MILITARY DOCTRINE SO FAR
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Iran's military doctrine and capacity is
defense of its own territorial integrity only
Iran has never attacked any of its neighbors
in the region in the past 300 years, even
when it was badly provoked in 1998 by the
Taliban in Afghanistan
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
IRANIAN MILITARY STRENGTH
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Iran has two kinds of armed forces: the regular
forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC), totaling about 545,000 personnel
Iran also has a paramilitary, volunteer militia
force called the Basij, which includes about
90,000 full-time, active-duty uniformed members,
up to 300,000 reservists, and a further 11 million
men and women who could be mobilized.
Iran's military capabilities are kept largely secret.
Since 1992, it has produced its own tanks,
armored personnel carriers, guided missiles,
submarines, and a fighter plane
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
WEAPON DEVELOPMENT
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In recent years, official announcements
have highlighted weapons such as Fajr-3
(MIRV) missile, Hoot, Kowsar, Fateh-110,
Shahab-3, and unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs)
The Fajr-3 (MIRV) is currently Iran's most
advanced ballistic missile. It is a
domestically-developed and produced
liquid fuel missile with an unknown range
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
MISSILE PROGRAM
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The IRIS solid-fuelled missile is a program
which is supposed to be Iran's first missile
to bring satellites into orbit
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Stakeholders
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UN
US
Iran
Russia
Israel
Saudi Arabia and other US allied Arab nations
Turkey
Iraq
UK
EU
IAEA
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Group Exercise
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Break up into groups
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Clarify their Frames, their positions, interests.
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What could be some of the possible ways of resolving or deescalating the conflict
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Structural
Interest
Cognitive
Emotional
Distribution
Underlying
Beliefs
Fear
of power &
resources
‘Built-in’
structural
inequalities
interests,
goals and
objectives
Schemas
Loss
Frames
grief
Rage
Pathology
Goals
Justice
Integration or
compromise
Reframing
Healing
Conflict
Management
Techniques
Revolution
Negotiation /
mediation
Facilitated
contact
Truth-telling
Core
Concerns
Re-
distribution
Deconstruction
compromise
bargaining
win-win
and
Public
Acknowledgement
Forgiveness
From PPA 601 class lecture Spring 2007, Framing- Prof Catherine Gerard
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
POSITIONS AND INTERESTS
US
Position
a)
b)
Iran is Axis
of Evil
Iran is
going
Nuclear WMD
IRAN
Position
US
Interests
a) US is
Imperialist
evil power out
to subjugate
Mid East
b) Nuclear for
peaceful
purposesenergy
1)Resourcesoil
2) Power in
Mid East
3) Will not
like Iran to
rise.
4) Control
IRAN
Interests
1)Major player in the region
2) Bargain and
Leveraging
3) Increase d status in world
Equation
4)Sovereignity
5) Respect in the Arab/Muslim
world
6) Stability in Iraq- Region
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict
Strategies for Resolution
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Diplomacy
Dialogue—interest based negotiations
Multi-track Diplomacy
Economic Pressure
Public Diplomacy
Military Action
Truth and Reconciliation Commissions
Reframing
PPA 601 Spring 2007 Asymmetric Conflict