2014 OUTLOOK
Ray Grabanski
Progressive Ag
Fargo, ND
Trading futures and options involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Dakota Marketing Year
Average Price
Year
1971-2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spring
Wheat
1.30 - 4.71
7.45
7.19
4.90
6.78
8.17
8.19
Soyeans
2.87 - 7.37
9.63
9.71
9.26
10.90
11.90
14.00
Corn
1.00 - 3.16
4.06
3.74
3.18
5.01
5.81
6.46

Jan-13
Chi Wht H 7.7800
Chi Wht N 7.9400
KC Wht H 8.3100
KC Wht N 8.2700
Mpls Wht H 8.6500
Mpls Wht U 8.9500
2013 – IN REVIEW
Dec-13 Change
6.0500
6.1700
6.4000
6.4300
6.3500
6.6600
-22.2%
-22.3%
-23.0%
-22.2%
-26.6%
-25.6%

Corn H
Corn Z
6.9800
5.8600
Soybean H 14.1900
Soybean X 13.0300
Soybean Oil
H 49.16
Soybean
Meal H 420.60
2013 – IN REVIEW
Jan-13 Dec-13 Change
4.2200
4.5000
13.1200
11.3500
-39.5%
-23.2%
-7.5%
-12.9%
38.82
-21.0%
437.70
4.1%

2013 – IN REVIEW
Jan-13
Live Cattle
G 129.900
Feeder
Cattle F 151.400
Lean Hog G 85.720
Dec-13 Change
134.500
166.700
85.420
3.5%
10.1%
-0.3%

2013 – IN REVIEW
Jan-13
GOLD G
Silver H
1677.10
30.38
Copper G 3.64
Platinum F 1538.70
Palladium H 717.40
Dec-13 Change
1201.90
19.34
3.44
1371.10
702.65
-28.3%
-36.3%
-5.5%
-10.9%
-2.1%

2013 – IN REVIEW
Jan-13
Crude Oil G
RBOB G
Heating Oil G
Ethanol G
Natural Gas
G
91.79
2.81
3.05
2.19
3.37
Dec-13
98.42
2.79
3.08
1.91
4.23
Change
7.2%
-0.9%
1.1%
-12.7%
25.6%

2013 – IN REVIEW
Jan-13
Dow Jones H 13070.00
S&P 500 H 1422.50
Nasdaq H
Dollar
CRB Index
2652.00
79.88
313.37
Dec-13
16494.00
1841.10
3584.00
80.32
277.68
Change
26.2%
29.4%
35.1%
0.6%
-11.4%

Stocks Breakout to New Highs

10 year Monthly DJIA

CORN

Corn’s Issues
Bigger than expected crop (158.8 bu)
Demand
Exports started poor/cancellation/improving
Ethanol pace slowing
EPA changing RFS
1.6 Million less Soft Red Acres

Corn Exports To Date
2012
Sales
.538
Shipments
0.312
USDA
.731
2013 1.32
0.574
1.6
60.0/week
1.8/3.12 BB
26.1/week
783/1.357
22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go
Sales need to average 9.3/Shipments 34.2

Corn
Category
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Use
Food, Seed, Ind.
Ethanol
Feed and Residual
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use Ratio
5 Year Average
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
Yield Per Acre (Bu.)
Average Price
09/10
1,673
13,092
8
14,774
1,370
4,591
5,125
1,980
13,066
1,708
13.1
86.4
79.5
164.7
3.55
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
1,708 1,128 989 821 1,481
12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,871
28 29 162 35 15
14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,367
1,407
5,019
4,795
1,834
1,428
5,000
4,557
1,543
1,396
4,648
4,335
731
1,400
5,000
5,300
1,600
1,425
4,600
5,000
1,750
13,055 12,528 11,111 13,300 12,775
1,128
8.6
989
7.9
821
7.4
1,481
11.1
2,592
20.3
11.2
88.2
81.4
152.8
5.18
91.9
84.0
147.2
6.22
97.2
87.4
123.4
6.89
95.4
87.7
158.8
4.50
92.5
85.1
163.0
3.35

USDA 2014 L-R Projections
 93.5 million acres, 86.1 hvstd.
 165.6 bu/acre yield
 14.26 billion bu crop
 Ethanol 4.9 billion bu.
 2.6 billion carryout ($3.65)
 But reduce 400 mb since Nov. (2.2 B)

USDA 10 yr. projections
 2014-2018: $3.30-$3.65
 2019-2024: $3.75-$4.20
 B/E now is $4.14
 Target Price is now $3.70

Monthly corn: Consolidation?

Weekly Chart: Bottoming???

Mar 14 Corn: $4.45 sell July

Dec 14 Corn: $4.65/$5.35?

SAM Weather

SOYBEAN

Soybean Issues
South America:
Brazil: huge acres, 5 to 8% increase, early harvest good, getting hot south
Argentina: hot dry conditions/improving
US demand impressively strong
Crush demand very strong meal demand main reason
Exports very strong but China has huge

Soybean Exports To Date
2012
Sales
1.25
Shipments
1.01
USDA
1.32
2013 1.58
1.16
1.51
71.8/week
2.15/3.73 BB
52.7/week
1.58/2.74 BB
22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go
Sales are over expectations/Shipments need 11.7

Soybean Export Destinations
25,00
22,50
20,00
17,50
15,00
12,50
10,00
7,50
5,00
2,50
0,00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China
Mexico
Japan
Taiwan
Indonesia
Netherlands

Soybeans
Category
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Use
Crush
Exports
Seed and Feed
Residual
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use Ratio
5 Year Average
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
Yield Per Acre (Bu.)
Average Price
09/10
138
3,359
15
3,512
1,752
1,499
90
20
3,361
151
4.5
10/11
151
3,329
14
3,495
1,648
1,501
87
43
3,280
215
6.6
77.5
76.4
44.0
9.59
77.4
76.6
43.5
11.30
11/12
215
3,094
16
3,325
1,703
1,365
90
-2
3,155
169
5.4
12/13
169
3,034
36
3,239
1,689
1,320
89
1
3,099
141
4.5
75.0
73.8
41.9
12.50
77.2
76.2
39.8
14.40
13/14
141
3,289
30
3,459
1,700
1,510
87
12
3,309
150
4.5
76.5
75.9
43.3
12.70
14/15
150
3,484
15
3,649
1,750
1,550
90
25
3,415
234
6.9
5.2
79.5
78.3
44.5
10.35

USDA Baseline 2014 no’s
 78 million acres
 45.2 bu/acre yield
 3.480 billion bu crop
 203 million bu carryout ($9.75)
• But reduced 20 mb after Nov. (183)

USDA 10 yr. projections
 2014-2021: $8.85 to $9.75
 2022-2024: $9.95 - $10.15
 Target price is $8.40

Soybean Monthly: Downside
Risk?

Weekly: Consolidation???

Mar 14 Sbns: inverted, sell

Nov 14 Sbns: $11.65/$12.35

Corn Revenue Rankings
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
7 Yr.
6 Yr.
5 Yr.
4 Yr.
3 Yr.
2 Yr.
2012
Progressive Ag
AgResources
Agrivisor
Agrivisor
Brock
Stewart-Peterson
Utterback
Doane

700
650
$ u e e n
R e v
600
550
P e r
A c r e
500
450
Soy Revenue Rankings
400
7 Yr.
6 Yr.
5 Yr.
4 Yr.
Year of Rankings
3 Yr.
2 Yr.
2012
Progressive Ag
AgResources
Agrivisor
Brock
Stewart-Peterson
Top Farmer
Utterback
Doane

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WHEAT

Wheat’s Issues - US
US Winter Wheat going into dormancy at very good condition
Exports started strong, slowing due to strong dollar
Winter Wheat crop high quality
Spring Wheat average quality, discounts
Oct/Nov/Dec Crop Production Report
BEARISH, not expected

Wheat’s Issues - US
US Winter Wheat Crop Condition Rating
KS: 63% G/E
OK: 77% G/E
58%
63%
35%
36%
TX: 32% G/E 38/35/37% 19%
CO: 55% G/E
18 States: 62% G/E
Last Year: 33% G/E

Winter Wheat Acres Down
State 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
KS 10.40
9.60
9.30
8.60
8.80
9.40
9.50
8.80
-7%
TX 6.20
5.80
6.40
5.40
5.30
5.70
6.20
6.20
0%
OK 5.90
5.60
5.70
5.20
5.10
5.40
5.60
5.30
-5%
MT 2.24
2.60
2.55
2.00
2.25
2.30
2.00
2.50
25%
CO 2.50
2.15
2.60
2.40
2.30
2.35
2.30
2.90
26%
IL
IN
1.00
0.42
1.20
0.58
0.85
0.47
0.35
0.30
0.80
0.43
0.66
0.35
0.88
0.47
0.74
0.43
-15%
-9%
NE 2.05
1.75
1.70
1.50
1.52
1.38
1.47
1.50
2%
OH 0.82
1.12
1.01
0.80
0.88
0.50
0.69
0.63
-9%
Total 45.01 46.31 43.31 37.10 40.65 41.20 43.10 41.90
-3%

WW Acres
10,50
10,00
9,50
9,00
8,50
8,00
7,50
7,00
6,50
6,00
5,50
5,00
4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Kansas
Texas
Oklahoma
Montana
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Nebraska
Ohio

Wheat Exports To Date
2012
Sales
0.772
Shipments
0.599
USDA
1.007
2013 0.981
0.811
1.175
28.0/week
476 MB/1.46
23.2/week
394 MB/1.21
35 weeks into marketing year, 17 weeks to go
Sales need average 11.4/Shipments 21.4

Wheat
Category
Supply
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Use
Food
Seed
Feed and Residual
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Total Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use Ratio
10 Year Average
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
Yield Per Acre (Bu.)
Average Price
09/10
657
2,218
119
2,993
10/11 11/12
976 862
2,207 1,999
97 112
3,279 2,974
919
69
926
71
941
76
150 132 162
879 1,289 1,051
2,018 2,417 2,231
976
48.4
862
35.7
743
33.3
12/13 13/14
743 718
2,266 2,130
123 170
3,131 3,018
945
73
960
74
388 250
1,007 1,175
2,414 2,459
718
29.7
558
22.7
59.2
49.9
44.5
4.87
53.6
47.6
46.3
5.70
54.4
45.7
43.7
7.24
55.7
48.9
46.3
7.77
56.2
45.2
47.2
6.80
14/15
558
2,366
120
3,044
950
75
275
1,200
2,500
544
21.8
28.5
57.5
52.0
45.5
6.50

2014 USDA Baseline no’s
 57 million acres, 48.5 hvstd.
 45.8 bu/acre
 2.220 billion bu production
 642 million bu carryout ($4.90)
• Only 7 mb reduction since Nov. (635)

USDA 10 yr. projections
 2014-2020: $4.30 - $4.90
 2021-2024: $4.90-$5.35
 Target Price is $5.50 in new farm bill

Mar Mpls: $6.95/$7.35 sell

Sept 14 Mpls: $7.00/$7.35