The 19th Annual Conference on PBFEAM Comparison of bank competitiveness between Taiwan and China Thomas M. F. Yeh Vice Chairman Polaris Financial Group Taipei, Taiwan July 9, 2011 1 Outline I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Overall Competitiveness Business Efficiency ─ Finance & Management Top 1000 World banks 1~10 Top 1000 World in Taiwan and in China Taiwan’s bank size and China’s The Scale of Asia Countries’ Leading Banks Countries’ Market Share of 5 Largest Banks in Asia Countries’ State Ownership Banks/Sector in Asia Business Environment II. SWOT Analysis Taiwan’s Bank SWOT analysis China’s Bank SWOT analysis III. CONCLUSION 2 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Overall Competitiveness Latest ranking ─ China is No.19;Taiwan is No.6. IMD China IMD Taiwan 6 17 24 16 26 17 20 28 17 18 22 27 8 11 12 15 13 18 23 18 17 29 19 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 IMD China IMD Taiwan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 Overall Competitiveness 17 20 18 19 13 23 8 6 Economic Performance 2 2 3 3 21 27 16 8 16 18 6 10 Government Efficient 12 15 25 33 10 22 3 3 Business Efficient 33 37 28 25 17 23 17 16 Infrastructure 31 32 31 28 Data source:IMD the World Competitiveness Yearbook. 2009 2010 2011 3 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s • Business Efficiency ─ Finance ─ Banking efficiency Taiwan is superior to China in banking sector, including the financial cards, the banking regulation and supporting business activities efficiently. Ranking Country Taiwan Hong Kong China Item/Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 Banking sector assets (Percentage of GDP) Banking and financial services (do support business activities efficiently) Finance and Banking regulation (is sufficiently effective) Financial cards in circulation (Number of cards per capita) Financial cards transactions (US$ per capita) 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 13 16 13 6 11 4 17 22 1 1 1 3 36 41 53 48 25 18 34 36 1 2 8 5 36 44 38 37 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 3 23 28 28 35 28 28 15 27 12 13 14 18 44 48 50 35 Data source:IMD The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011、2010、2009。 4 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s • Business Efficiency ─ Finance ─ Stock Market Efficiency Taiwan is also superior to China in the stock markets, excepting the listed domestic companies. Ranking Country Item/Year Stock markets (provide adequate financing to companies) Stock market capitalization (Percentage of GDP) Taiwan Hong Kong China 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2 3 13 14 1 1 1 2 32 32 33 44 5 7 8 7 1 1 1 1 15 18 7 24 Value traded on stock markets (US$ per capita) 7 16 13 15 1 4 4 2 26 31 28 38 Listed domestic companies (Number) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 Shareholders’ Rights (are sufficiently implemented ) 28 16 48 34 24 36 27 30 53 51 54 53 Data source:IMD The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011、2010、2009。 5 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s • Business Efficiency ─ Finance ─ Management Practices Taiwan has well developed VC industry, sufficient financial institutions' transparency and consumer protection, but China still has a long way to go. Ranking Country Item/Year Credit (is easily available for businesses) Venture capital (is easily available for businesses) Customer Satisfaction (is emphasized in companies) Financial institutions' transparency (is sufficiently implemented) Taiwan Hong Kong China 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 4 1 12 17 6 4 7 6 37 40 43 52 4 4 6 4 3 1 2 2 32 39 55 51 6 7 7 4 17 18 13 6 36 43 56 47 15 16 39 39 11 17 5 8 51 56 54 52 Data source:IMD The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011、2010、2009。 6 Ⅱ.Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s • Business Efficiency ─ Finance ─ Availability of Skills and Education China has more facilities to attract foreign high-skilled people than Taiwan, though Taiwan has more finance skills available. Ranking Country Item/Year Taiwan Hong Kong China 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 Finance skills (are already available) 22 28 28 16 10 15 9 6 50 53 53 47 Foreign high-skilled people (are attracted to your country’s business environment) 26 25 32 26 7 4 7 9 16 19 13 18 International experience (of senior managers is generally significant) 15 16 25 21 2 3 2 3 56 58 57 44 Competent senior managers (are readily available) 16 21 26 18 1 10 2 5 34 47 30 44 English Proficiency ─TOFEL (TOFEL scores) 54 53 51 ─ 46 46 43 ─ 52 50 45 ─ Data source:IMD The World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011、2010、2009。 7 Top 1000 World banks 1~10 In Asia, China has become the most potential country in banking sector from the view of top 10 world banks. Unit:U.S. $Trillion Year 2005 Top 1~10 banks by tier 1 capital Year 2010 Countr Assets Assets Top 1~10 banks Country y (Ranking) (Ranking) by tier 1 capital of US Citigroup 1.48 (2) 2.22 (6) Bank US America Corp Morgan US JP Morgan Chase 1.16 (7) 2.03 (8) JP US Chase UK HSBC Holdings 1.28 (4) 1.86 (10) Citigroup US Bank of America Royal Bank of US 1.11 (10) 2.75 (2) UK Corp Scotland Agricole France Credit 1.24 (5) 2.36 (4) HSBC Holdings UK Groupe Royal Bank of Wells Fargo UK 1.12 (9) 1.24 (22) US Scotland &Co Tokyo JAPAN Mitsubishi 0.98 (12) 1.73 (11) ICBC China Financial Group Financial JAPAN Mizuho 1.30 (3) 2.96 (1) BNP Paribas France Group UK HBOS 0.76 (19) 1.60 (14) Banco Spain Santander 8 France BNP Paribas 1.23 (6) 2.23 (5) Barclays UK Data source: July 2005 & July 2010, The Banker Top 1000 World banks in Taiwan and in China From the view of bank size, Taiwan’ bank is far behind Unit:U.S. $Trillion of China. Top 1000 World banks Ranking 151 174 202 228 229 238 Taiwan Top 1~10 banks by tier 1 capital Bank of Taiwan Mega International Commercial Bank Chinatrust Commercial Bank Taiwan Cooperative Bank Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank Hua Nan Financial Holdings Assets (Ranking) Assets (Ranking) 0.122(127) 1.73( 11) Industrial Commercial Bank of China 0.068(174) 1.28( 21) Bank of China 0.054(210) 1.41( 18) 0.080(158) 1.03( 25) 0.034(295) 0.48( 46) China Construction Bank Corporation Agricultural Bank of China Bank of Communications 0.057(203) 0.26( 72) China CITIC Bank 264 Land Bank of Taiwan 0.066(181) 0.21( 89) 272 Cathy United Bank 0.041(264) 0.30( 63) First Commercial Bank 0.060(191) 0.20( 93) 275 278 Taipei Fubon Bank Data source: July 2010, The Banker Top 1000 China Mainland’s單位:百萬美元 World Top 1~10 banks banks by tier 1 capital Ranking 0.042(258) 0.24( 81) China Minsheng Banking Corp China Merchants Bank Industrial Bank Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 7 14 15 28 49 67 80 81 97 108 9 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Taiwan’s bank size and China’s Taiwan’ bank assets is far below the level of the world’s top 100 bank’s. • Taiwan’s bank 175,397 The Level of the world’s top 100 bank’s assets Unit: U.S. $ million 140,000 121,786 120,000 100,000 80,392 80,000 68,785 65,710 60,139 60,000 56,854 54,057 46,180 42,472 41,181 40,000 20,000 0 Bank of Taiwan Taiwan Cooperative Mega Land Bank •Data source:THE BANKER, July 2010 First Hua Nan Chinatrust Chang Hwa Taipei Fubon Cathy United 10 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Taiwan’s bank size and China’s China’s top 10 bank assets is above the level of the world’s top 100 bank’s. China’s bank • 1,800,000 1,725,938 Unit: U.S. $ million 1,600,000 1,409,355 1,281,183 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,026,021 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 484,628 302,853 259,956 237,649 208,897 195,097 175,397 400,000 200,000 0 ICBC China Bank of Agricultural Bank of China Construction China CommunicationsMerchants •Data source:THE BANKER, July 2010 CITIC Shanghai Pudong China Industrial China Minsheng Everbright 175,397 The Level of the world’s top 100 bank’s assets 11 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s The Scale of Asia Countries’ Leading Banks All of Japan, China, South Korea and Singapore’s leading bank assets are above the level of the world’s top 100 bank’s. The Top 10 Domestic Banks The Asia Leading Banks 2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 The Level of the world's Top 100 Bank's Assets 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 0 Mitsubishi ICBC Kookmin Asset(unit:U.S.$ million) 2,025,830 1,725,938 219,698 World’s Rank 9 11 83 T aiwan Mega Cooperati Internatio ve Bank nal Land Bank of T aiwan First Hua nan Chang Commerci Commerci Chinatrust Hua al bank al, Ltd Commerci DBS Bank of T aiwan 184,351 121,786 80,932 68,785 65,710 60,139 56,854 54,057 46,180 42,472 41,181 97 127 158 174 181 191 203 210 239 258 264 •Data source:THE BANKER, July 2010 T aipei Fubon 12 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Domestic Banks’ ROA in Taiwan Taiwan’s Domestic bank’s ROA is below the level of the lowest international standard. % Banks Lowest International Standard 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.48 0.22 0.50 0.63 0.58 0.3 0.27 0.14 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -0.50 2006 -0.3 2007 0.16 2008 0.28 2009 2010 -0.48 -1.00 •Data source:http://www.banking.gov.tw Year 13 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Domestic Banks’ ROE in Taiwan Taiwan’s Domestic bank’s ROE is still below the level of the lowest international standard. Banks % Lowest International Standard 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.3 10.00 9.1 6.19 5.00 3.6 4.81 3.52 4.49 2.21 0.00 2.47 -0.43 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -5.00 -6.93 -10.00 •Data source:http://www.banking.gov.tw 14 Year I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Emerging-market Countries’ Market Share of 5 Largest Banks in Asia China and Taiwan’s 5 largest banks’ market share is 51.6% and 38.9% respectively. % 100 80 74 60.7 54.2 60 51.6 51.6 49.9 38.9 40 37.6 20 0 Tailand South Korea Maylasia Phillippines China Indoneisia Taiwan India Data Source: EM Banking System Datawatch,FitchRatings,25 November 2010. All data as at end-H1 10. 15 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Emerging-market Countries’ State Ownership Banks/Sector in Asia China and Taiwan’s state ownership banks over banking sector is 51.3% and 53.6% respectively. % 100 73.7 80 60 47.1 40 53.6 51.3 45.3 32.5 17.7 20 0 12.9 Tailand South Korea Maylasia Phillippines China Indoneisia Taiwan India Data Source: EM Banking System Datawatch,FitchRatings,25 November 2010. All data as at end-H1 10. 16 I. Overview of Taiwan’s Bank Competitiveness and China’s Business Environment BERI’ rating system, Business Risk Service (BRS), offers comprehensive assessments of operating conditions, political risk, and the foreign exchange/ external accounts position for 50 important countries. Taiwan is still superior to China in BERI’ rating. Business Environment Risk Intelligence 2008 2009 2010 2011(f) Taiwan China Taiwan China Taiwan China Taiwan China Business Risk Composite rating 5 17 5 16 4 15 4 13 Political Risk Index (ORI) rating 11 17 13 18 11 16 8 13 Operations Risk Index (PRI) rating 3 24 5 22 3 22 3 20 Remittance & Repatriation Factor (R -Factor) rating 5 8 4 9 3 9 3 8 Data source:Business Risk Service, BERI, 2008~2011. 17 II. SWOT Analysis • Taiwan’s Bank SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses ‧ Abundant available fund in banking ‧ Fragile market structure. system. ‧ Financial system not sufficiently ‧ Well developed VC industry. internationalized. ‧ More experiences to serve SMEs and ‧ International language abilities are Taiwanese firms. inadequate. ‧ Small bank size. ‧Thinning profits of financial industries. Opportunities Threats ‧ Ability to integrate ethnic Chinese ‧ Financial brain drain presents a resources and put them to work in the threat to Taiwan’s industrial financial market. development. ‧Making a new role of intermediary for ‧ Threatened by foreign banks in China. European, American and Japanese businesses entering the China market ‧ US-Taiwan trade platform smaller after signing EFCA. than US-China. 18 II. SWOT Analysis • China’s Bank SWOT analysis Strengths ‧Large banks. ‧Large loan spread. ‧ A one-party system and higher state-owned banks make things get done in a hurry without destructive filibustering. Opportunities Weaknesses ‧International financial professionals are still not enough. ‧ Financial regulation and consumers protection still need improving. ‧SME competitiveness needs to be raised. Threats ‧Opening financial markets to ‧ Over–expansion in credit. foreigners step by step. ‧Overheated economy resulted from ‧ Large fund to merge foreign the shooting price of real estates and businesses and financial institutions. loan growth. 19 Ⅲ.CONCLUSION • China’s banking system is still larger than other countries in Asia, but banking regulation and corporate governance should be improved in the near future, especially strengthening the financial institutions' transparency. • Taiwan has suffered a setback in its effort to reform stateowned banks. Despite the setback, we expect the government to continue its financial reform efforts and mergers and acquisitions, albeit at a more cautious pace. • The banking regulations in both sides of Taiwan Straits should be improved as soon as possible. The earlier this can be achieved, the higher its benefits will be and the lower its costs for the pacific basin as a whole. • Both government’s long-term strategies are to continue improving the bank infrastructure for development, and to develop service industries to speed up economic 20 transformation. THANK YOU! 21