*
Power
kWh/day
1
103
1 W 1 kW
0.03 24
106
1 MW
24,000
109
1 GW
1012
1 TW
MacKay’s Book Principal unit
* David MacKay’s 2009 book has
become the resource for simplifying
and demystifying the energy crisis.
* Book uses numbers – and you should
not be afraid to too!
*
“Foreign-language stuff” kept to the technical chapters at end of book/
“Intended to be accessible to everyone who can add, multiply and divide …
especially aimed at our dear elected and unelected representatives…”
5
4.66
4.5
4
3.5
2.89
2.98
3
TW
2.5
2
1.24
1.5
0.92
1
0.285
0.5
0.286
0
Oil
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew
Total: 13.2 TW
U.S.: 3.2 TW
Get most accurate current numbers from www.eia.gov
* Energy fuels economic growth
* Cheap energy defines where
we live, how we live our lives,
food we eat …
(Rubin paints a grim picture for
the supply of “fresh” salmon!)
* Most of our current
energy comes from
burning fossil fuels
principally OIL
* Standard economic
theory: supply and
demand?
* But what happens
when oil price spike?
* What happens when
supply can no longer
meet demand?
*
Oil comes from creatures the
size of a pinhead. These onecelled creatures, known as
diatoms, aren't really plants,
but share one very important
characteristic with them - they
take light from the sun and
convert it into energy.
*
Paleontological Research Institution
* Mixture of different hydrocarbons, CmHn
Hydrocarbon
Paraffins
(alkanes)
Avg.
Range
30%
15 to 60%
Naphthenes
(cycloalkanes)
49%
30 to 60%
Aromatics
15%
3 to 30%
Asphaltics
6%
remainder
n-octane
*
A little chemistry:
*
2 C8H18(l) + 25 O2(g) → 16 CO2(g) + 18 H2O(g) + 10.86 MJ/mol (of iso-octane)
mass of iso-octane: 8*12+18 = 114 g/mol
Simple compounds
energy density (MJ/kg)
Fossil fuels
energy density (MJ/kg)
carbon (to CO2)
carbon (to CO)
ethanol
hydrogen
methane
methanol
octane
propane
32.8
22.7
29.7
142
55.5
22.7
47.9
50.3
coal, anthracite
coal, bituminous
coal, sub-bituminous
coal, lignite
diesel
gasoline, automotive
oil, crude (petroleum)
kerosene
31.4
> 23.9
17.4–23.8
< 17.43
45.3
45.8
41.9
46.3
Foods
energy density (MJ/kg)
Biomass fuels
energy density (MJ/kg)
carbohydrates
fats
proteins
17.2
38.9
17.2
biomass f alfalfa straw
Dry cowdung
Water at 100m dam height
Lithium Ion rechargeable battery (cell phone, laptop)
Alkaline battery (AA cell)
Uranium (nuclear fission)
0.001 MJ/kg
~0.7 MJ/kg
~0.6 MJ/kg
20,000,000 MJ/kg
Source: The Physics Hypertextbook
18.4
15.5
(20 TJ/kg)
*
Rubin, Why your world is about to get a
whole lot smaller
1.
How long do you expect
to live?
2.
Do you expect oil to be
powering most
transportation for the
next 30 years?
3.
Do you expect multination
wars to be waged with
the aim to control
regional oil resources?
4.
Do you expect oil to be
drilled and refined
throughout over your
lifetime?
5.
Do you think we will run
out of oil over your
lifetime?
Gorelick, Oil Panic and the global crisis
“The
peaking of world oil production presents
the US and the world with an unprecedented
risk management problem.
As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and
price volatility will increase dramatically, and
without timely mitigation, the economic, social
and political costs will be unprecedented.” Hirsch
report, US Dept. of Energy (2005)
“Thirty years from now there will be a huge
amount of oil - and no buyers….
The stone age came to an end, not because we
had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to
an end not because we have a lack of oil” Sheik
Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 2000
Science, 109, 103 (1949)
Based on 1956 data and using
his model, Hubbert predicted
peak US oil production
between 1965 – 1971.
His employer, Shell,
dissociated itself from his
forecast!
How good is model?
US peak was 1970
Gorelick (2010)
*
To make forecast, he needed
historical data (to get initial
slope) and an estimate of the
oil endowment. Changing the
latter estimate by factor of 2
only moves peak by < 20
years.
* Hubbert extended his model to global oil
depletion. Depending on estimate of global oil
endowment (1.35 – 2.1 trillion) predicts peak
global oil between 1995 – 2000.
* Using a 2000 re-estimate of global oil
endowment, peak would be in 2005.
* Oil company and economists differ on whether
we have already hit peak oil, but estimates
only spread by about 10-20 years.
*
Gorelick (2010)
Peak Oil
*Individual oil wells, oil fields, whole countries production, or
worldwide production should follow Hubbert’s Bell curve. Peak
and decline at a similar rate to the rate of increase before the
peak.
*Peak in oil discoveries was 1965
*Peak US oil production 1970
*Peak world production
(various estimates)
Gorelick (2010)
2005 – 2020
* Will Peak Oil become Peak GDP for the United
States? (Rubin)
*
Oil consumers
Number of net exporters will fall form 35 in present decade to between 12-28 by
2030
After 1970, US became net importer of oil.
Since 1970 the US (and UK) has invested heavily to maintain stable oil supply by
foreign intervention
and military depolyment to protect Middle East Oil
Oil producers
* How much oil does the
US military consume
compared to the
amount secured from
foreign intervention?
* Gorelick (2010) Estimates
place the political and military
cost of maintaining oil supply
to the US as $55 billion per
year. Standing armed force
cost alone is worth $65 /barrel
of oil.
* Current price of oil is
$115/barrel
*
* The world will become
much smaller (Rubin)
* Human ingenuity:
renewables will fill the
gap
* Look harder for fossil fuels – Energy Independence
*