Welcome
ASPO THIRD INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON OIL AND GAS DEPLETION
Berlin, Germany, 25-26 May, 2004
By C.J.Campbell
It was here in Germany that ASPO had its origin. On December 7th in the year 2000, I
was privileged to give a talk on oil depletion at the ancient university of Clausthal in
the Harz Mountains. The idea of forming an institution, or network of scientists
concerned about the subject, developed. Next day, I took the idea to Professor
Wellmer, the head of the BGR in Hannover, who gave it his support. The Norwegians
were the next to join, followed by the Swedes. Today, ASPO is represented in almost
all European countries – at least before its recent enlargement.
The next step forward came when Professor Aleklett organised the first International
Workshop on Oil Depletion in Uppsala in May of 2002, to be followed in turn by
another, hosted by the Institute Français du Pétrole last year in Paris.
ASPO is an informal network working with a very small budget, yet its voice is being
heard, thanks in part to the Uppsala website. Perhaps its informal structure is its
strength. It means that it can tell the truth freed of all the political, legalistic and
commercial constraints that most organisations face. By all means, the subject of
depletion is a sensitive one, being perhaps the most important single issue facing the
modern world.
It is very difficult for people and, still less, governments to accept that we live at a
critical moment in history. Oil has fuelled the economy for the past 150 years allowing
the world’s population to rise six-fold. Now, we enter the second half of the Oil Age,
facing the decline of this critical energy supply. The very fabric of society will have to
change. Oil fuels transport, on which trade, commerce and manufacturing depend. It
has a critical role in agriculture, which means food. Far-reaching changes for almost
all aspects of life are called for. The tensions of the transition will be great.
Different factions view the subject with different backgrounds, mind-sets, vested
interests and objectives. The Surveyor defines, describes and measures the
resource in Nature. The Economist relies on out-dated principles inherited from the
Industrial Revolution to claim that there can be no shortage in an Open Market. The
Pretenders know full well what the situation is but pretend otherwise for short-term
political reasons. These and other divergent positions are possible because of the
grossly unreliable nature of public data. With valid information, the essence of
depletion would be self-evident.
This workshop brings together people from many countries to hear lectures by
leading authorities, and above all to meet informally to discuss their different
understandings and viewpoints. Their conclusions will form a new consensus.
Soaring oil prices and the threat of resource wars bring a new urgency to the matter.
The World’s media are following the issue with growing attention, and are doing their
best to alert governments and the people at large to their predicaments.
Programme
Tuesday 25 May, 2004
08.00
Welcome reception
Natural Gas
Chair: C. Campbell
09.00
Welcome - What happened since “Paris”
Kjell ALEKLETT [ASPO]
09.15
Future energy - What can the BGR contribute?
Friedrich-Wilhelm WELLMER [BGR]
09.30
Supply and demand of the US market
Matthew R. SIMMONS [Simmons & Company Int.]
10.15
Demand and gas supply in Europe
Christian BECKERVORDERSANDFORTH [Ruhrgas]
11.00
Coffee
11.30
Supply from Groningen and the small fields in the Netherlands:
How has it worked out and what is ahead?
Jaap BREUNESE [TNO]
12.15
LNG, regional gas markets vs. Gas-OPEC
François CAHAGNE [Gaz de France]
13.00
Lunch
Natural Gas
Chair: P. R. Bauquis
14.00
The future of natural gas supply
Jean LAHERRERE [ASPO]
14.30
Future Gas Potential: Where? What? How much?
J. Peter GERLING [BGR]
15.00
Coffee
Oil
Chair: P. R. Bauquis
15.30
Oil reserves growth potential
Francis G. HARPER [BP]
16.15
Long-term energy outlook - An ExxonMobil analysis
Jeffrey A. JOHNSON [ExxonMobil]
17.00
A dynamic approach of oil production
Olivier RECH [IFP]
Speakers
Wednesday, May 26
Energy and Society
Chair: C. v. Hirschhausen
09.00
Energy scenarios for Europe
Harry LEHMANN [ISUSI]
09.45
The European energy policy - Reality or fiction?
Rolf LINKOHR [MEP]
10.30
Coffee
11.00
Panel discussion: How to cope with the future energy constraints - A European perspective
Moderator: Fritz VAHRENHOLT [REpower]
Participants:
12.30
Ali Samsam BAKHTIARI [NIOC]
Fatih BIROL
[IEA]
Colin CAMPBELL
[ASPO]
Hans-Josef FELL
[MdB]
Hans-Wilhelm SCHIFFER [RWE Power]
Hartmut SCHNEIDER
[BMWA]
Lunch
Renewables/Hydrogen
What can we expect?
Chair: W. Zittel
13.30
Economic growth and interest system
Bernd SENF [FHW Berlin]
14.15
Synfuel - Their role in the transport sector
Frank SEYFRIED [VW]
15.00
Coffee
15.30
Alternative fuels in Europe and Germany - Which contribution is possible?
Martin KALTSCHMITT [Inst. f. Energetik & Umwelt]
16.15
Hydrogen - Activities in the US, Japan and Europe
Jörg SCHINDLER [LBSt]
17.00
Wrap up
Michael KOSINOWSKI [NLfB]
Farewell
Kjell ALEKLETT [ASPO]
Programme
Member
Affiliation
Country
Dipl.-Ing. H. Fechner
fechner.h@arsenal.ac.at
Österreichisches Forschungs- und Prüfzentrum
Arsenal Ges.m.b.H.
AUSTRIA
Prof. Pertti Sarkomaa
Pertti.Sarkomaa@lut.fi
Lappeenranta University of Technology
FINLAND
Mr. Pierre-René Bauquis
pr_bauquis@hotmail.com
Institut Francais du Petrole
FRANCE
Mr. Jean H. Laherrère
jean.laherrere@wanadoo.fr
Association Française des Techniciens du Petrole
FRANCE
Dr. Klaus Illum
illum@post1.tele.dk
Danish Association of Civil Engineers
DENMARK
Dr. Peter Gerling
Peter.Gerling@bgr.de
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural
Resources
GERMANY
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Blendinger
wolfgang.blendinger@tu-clausthal.de
Clausthal Technical University
GERMANY
Dr. Werner Zittel
zittel@lbst.de
L-B Systemstechnik, München
GERMANY
Dr. Colin J.Campbell
aspoone@eircom.net
Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
IRELAND
Dr. Colin Sage
c.sage@ucc.ie
University College, Cork
IRELAND
Mr. Paul Kellett
paul@reio.ie
SEI (Sustainable Energy Ireland)
IRELAND
Dr. Ugo Bardi
bardi@unifi.it
Universita di Firense
ITALY
Dr. Alberto DiFazio
difazio@oarhp1.rm.astro.it
National Institute of Astrophysics
ITALY
Dr. Ipo Ritsema
i.ritsema@nitg.tno.nl
THE NETHERLANDS Institute for Applied
Geosciences TNO, National Geological Survey
THE NETHERLANDS
Mr. Oystein Kristiansen
oystein.kristiansen@npd.no
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
NORWAY
Dr. Jan Karlsen
firmapost@rf.no
Rogaland Research
NORWAY
Prof. Rui Rosa
rrosa@uevora.pt
Geophysics Centre, Evora
PORTUGAL
Dr. Manuel Collares-Pereira
collares.pereira@mail.ineti.pt
Physics Department, Technical University of
Lisbon
PORTUGAL
Prof. Mariano Marzo
mariano@natura.geo.ub.es
Facultat de Geologia, Universidad de Barcelona
SPAIN
Prof. Kjell Aleklett
aleklett@tsl.uu.se
Dept. of Radiation Sciences, Uppsala University
SWEDEN
Dr. Dieter Kuhn
dkuhn@kzu.ch
SES (SWITZERLAND Energy Foundation)
SWITZERLAND
Dr. Rudolph Rechsteiner
rechsteiner@rechsteiner-basel.ch
SES & Member of Parliament
SWITZERLAND
Dr. Roger. W. Bentley
r.w.bentley@reading.ac.uk
Dept. of Cybernetics, Reading University
UNITED KINGDOM
Dr. David Falvey
dfalvey@bgs.ac.uk
Executive Director, British Geological Survey
UNITED KINGDOM
Prof. Ian Fells
Newcastle University
UNITED KINGDOM
Speakers
ian@fellsassociates.com
Kjell Aleklett
K. Aleklett is Professor of Physics in the Department of Radiation Sciences at Uppsala University,
Sweden. He holds a doctorate degree from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. His doctoral thesis
was titled, 'Total beta-decay properties and masses of nuclei far away from beta stability.' He worked
as a post-doctoral staff scientist at the Natural Science Laboratory at Studsvik. In 1978-79 and again
in 1983, he was invited to work with Nobel Prize winner Glenn T. Seaborg at the Lawrence Berkley
Laboratory. In 1986 he was appointed Associate Professor at Uppsala University. His main research
interest has been nuclear physics. His interest in the global energy situation started in 1995 and has
grown dramatically since then. He organised the First International Workshop on Oil Depletion in May
2002 at Uppsala University. Subsequently, he obtained research grants from the Swedish
government and from private industry, which made it possible to start the Uppsala Hydrocarbon
Depletion Group in January 2003.
Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari holds a PhD in chemical engineering and is currently Senior Expert attached to
the Director's office in the Corporate Planning Directorate of the National Iranian Oil Company
(NIOC). He began his employment with NIOC in 1971 as Project Engineer at its Research Centre. In
1974, he joined the National Petrochemical Company as Project Engineer in its Projects Evaluation
Department, and in 1977 he moved to its Corporate Planning Division. He returned to the NIOC
Research Centre in 1985, where he headed several departments, and then moved up to DeputyDirector in charge of Special Projects. Between 1990 and 1995, he was Senior Expert in Technology
and Development at the NIOC Corporate Planning Directorate, Senior Project Assayer, coordinator of
NIOC's international seminars in Iran, and secretary of several internal technical committees. From
1996 to 1998, he was Senior Expert in Technology and Environmental Affairs in the NIOC Corporate
Planning Directorate. In 1999, he was managing editor of The Journal of the Iranian Petroleum
Institute. He has also been a part-time lecturer in the Chemical Engineering Department at Tehran
University, has published numerous articles, and is the author of Peaks and Troughs (London:
Minerva Press 1996) on the history of modern Iran.
Pierre-René Bauquis
P. R. Bauquis has been a Special Adviser to the chairman of TotalFinaElf SA since 1995. He also is
an Associate Professor at the Institut Français du Pétrole (IFP) School and is a vice-president of the
French Energy Institute. He served as President of the French Association of Petroleum
Professionals during 1999-2000. He is a member of Environmentalists for Nuclear Energy.
Speakers
Christian Beckervordersandforth
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christian P. Beckervordersandforth studied Mechanical Engineering at Aachen Technical University, specialising in process engineering. He graduated in 1972 and received his doctorate
in 1975. He became Head of a working group on coal gasification at Aachen Technical University,
and in 1983 Deputy Manager of the German-Belgian project on in-situ gasification at Liège. From
1983 until 1991 he was Director of the Gaswärme-Institut e.V., Essen. In 1990 C.P.
Beckervordersandforth became Head of the Development & Scientific Services Division of Ruhrgas
AG. Since 1990 he has been teaching Energy Transmission and Distribution at Bochum University
where he became a Honorary Professor in 1996. He is a Foreign Member of the National Academy of
Sciences of Ukraine and President of the CEN Comité Européen de Normalisation, as well as a
member of several national and international gas-related committees.
Fatih Birol
F. Birol is Chief Economist and Head of the Economic Analysis Division at the IEA.
He joined the International Energy Agency in 1995. Prior to the IEA, he worked at the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretariat in Vienna for five years. In his present post,
he is responsible for producing the IEA’s flagship publication World Energy Outlook. He teaches
Energy Economics and Modelling at universities in Austria and Germany. F. Birol is the author of
several articles in refereed journals on international energy analysis and policy. He graduated with a
BSc degree in Power Engineering from the Technical University of Istanbul and MSc and PhD in
Energy Economics and Modelling from the Technical University of Vienna.
Jaap Breunese
Jaap Breunese graduated in 1982 at Leiden University as PhD in Mathematics and Physics.
Since then he has worked in geosciences, first at The Netherlands National Geological Survey and
from 1997 at TNO. He was active in petrophysics, specialising in well log evaluation and reservoir
modelling, later he was primarily devoted to resource assessment, focussing at developing and
implementing assessment methods and systems. After he was heading the Resource Assessment
advisory group for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, responsible for oil and gas reserves
estimates at the national scale, he has been appointed Senior Research Fellow, broadening the scope
of work to production forecasting methods, including modelling and quantifying the effects of
governmental policy and regulatory measures in the upstream gas sector in The Netherlands.
During his scientific career, Jaap Breunese has also been working in areas such as subsurface
storage of nuclear waste and CO2, the prediction of subsidence caused by extraction of gas or rock
salt, mining legislation, data and knowledge management, and various field and unitisation studies.
Speakers
François Cahagne
F. Cahagne graduated from the Ecole Polytechnique of Paris and of the Ecole Nationale de la
Statistique et de l’Administration Economique.
He held positions at the Ministry of the Economics, Finance and Industry, where he was in charge of
Monetary Policy issues, and at the French Embassy in Cairo, engaging in Economic studies on the
Middle East.
From 1996 to 2002, he was in the Project Management at the Gaz de France International Division,
from where he changed to the Gaz de France Exploration and Production Division being in charge of
licence and gas field acquisitions. Currently, he is Head of LNG Supply Department at Gaz de France
Négoce.
Colin J. Campbell
C. J. Campbell spent his career in the oil business, starting it as a field geologist in Latin America and
ending it as an Executive Vice-President in Norway. In a form of subsequent retirement, he has
written four books on oil depletion, and he published, lectured and broadcast widely on the subject.
Hans-Josef Fell
H J Fell is the Managing Director of the Hammelburg Solar Power Limited. Since 2001, he has been a
member of the World Council for Renewable Energy – WCRE. In March 2002, he became the
Chairman of Eurosolar - German Section. He is the Spokesperson on research and technology and
energy expert of the parliamentary group of Alliance 90/The Greens and the Spokesman of the
Committee on Education, Research and Technology Assessment, he is also correspondent for the
Office of Technology Assessment (TAB).
J. Peter Gerling
J. P. Gerling is head of the "Energy Resources" section of the Federal Institute for Geosciences and
Natural Resources (BGR), which acts as an advisory body to the German Government and conducts
aid projects in developing countries. He received his “Diplom” (equivalent to an MSc) in geology and
paleontology and his “Dr.rer.nat.” in geochemistry from the Westfälische Wilhelms-University of
Münster. After three years working as an Exploration Geologist for a German oil company, he joined
the BGR as an oil and gas geochemist in 1984, working on a variety of national and international oil
and gas basin studies. He was the BGR’s liaison officer in the German Ministry of Economics and
Labour in 1996.
Speakers
Francis G. Harper
F. G. Harper graduated from Aberdeen University in 1974 with a Geology degree. He joined BP the
same year and has remained there ever since, employed primarily as an explorer, focusing on the
North Sea, the USA and the Far East. Since the late 1980s, he has been involved with analysing the
movements of BP's reserves in addition to the exploration role and, from 1999-2003, following the
Amoco merger, he has been responsible for compiling and reporting BP's worldwide reserves and
production data. For the last year, he has moved back full time into exploration, providing support for
BP's strategic and operational decision-making.
Christian von Hirschhausen
C. v. Hirschhausen is Visiting Professor of Economics at the Berlin University of Technology (TU
Berlin), School of Economics & Management and Research Associate at the DIW Berlin (German
Institute for Economic Research). He studied Economics at the University of Colorado where he was
also a Research Assistant, and later he graduated from University of Technology in Berlin. He worked
at the Research and Consulting, CERNA Centre for Industrial Economics, at the Ecole des Mines in
Paris where he also received his PhD in Industrial Economics.
Currently, he is also working for the European Commission, the World Bank, the Kreditanstalt für
Wiederaufbau, the Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (gtz).
Jeffrey Johnson
J. Johnson joined ExxonMobil in 1985 in Houston, Texas, after receiving his PhD in Geology from the
University of California, Los Angeles. He has held a number of positions with ExxonMobil in both the
Exploration and Production functions since then. Recent assignments include Geoscience Manager
for ESSO REP located in Bordeaux, France (1995-96) and from late 1996 to early 2000, President of
Esso Upstream China Limited, located in Beijing. From Beijing, he returned to Houston as Area
Manager for the Caspian in the ExxonMobil Exploration Company. For three years, his focus was
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Currently, he is the Operations Manager for Production
Geoscience responsible for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia and Australia. In June, 2004, he
will become an Upstream Advisor for ExxonMobil Corporation, located in Dallas, Texas.
J Johnson is a member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists and the Geological
Society of America.
Speakers
Martin Kaltschmitt
Prof. Dr.-Ing. M. Kaltschmitt is Managing Director of the Institute for Energy and Environment in
Leipzig. After studying at the Technical University of Clausthal he received his PhD from the
University of Stuttgart. During the following years he became Head of the Group "Renewable energy"
at IER, University of Stuttgart, Head of the Department "Environment and Energy" at KTBL,
Darmstadt, and Head of the Department "New Energy Technologies" at IER, University of Stuttgart.
After his habilitation in 1997, he took post-doctoral Fellowships at Kíng's College, London, IER,
University of Stuttgart, and ERG, University of California at Berkeley. Since 2001, he has been
Managing Director of the Institute for Energy and Environment gGmbH, Leipzig, and since 2003,
Professor for Renewable Energy at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. Current
assignments are: elected member of CEN TC 335; Convenor of CEN TC 335 WG 1; member of the
German National Mirror Committee at DIN; member of VDI, FNR, DGMK, KTBL; appointed member
in various other committees in the field of "Biomass for Energy". M. Kaltschmitt published more than
15 books and more than 80 articles in scientific magazines and journals and held more than 270
presentations on conferences and workshops.
Michael Kosinowski
M Kosinowski is Vice President of the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources and
of Geological Survey of Lower Saxony in Hannover. He graduated from Göttingen University and
received his PhD in Geology in 1982. For more than 20 years he has been focussing on oil and gas
exploration, site remediation, geological mapping, and other fields of applied geology.
Jean H. Laherrère
After his graduation from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale du Pétrole in Paris, he participated
with Compagnie Française des Pétroles (now TOTAL) in the Sahara exploration with the discoveries of two
supergiant fields. He went to explore Central, Southern, and Western Australia. For TOTAL in Canada he was in
charge of exploration from where he started exploring the Labrador Sea and Michigan. After 15 years overseas,
he went to TOTAL headquarters in Paris where he was in charge successively of the new ventures negotiation,
technical services and research, basin exploration departments, and finally deputy exploration manager.
He was member of the Safety Panel of the Ocean Drilling Program (JOIDES), and President of the Exploration
Commission of the Comité des Techniciens of the Union Française de l’Industrie Pétrolière where he directed
the publication of a dozen of manuals. He was Director of Compagnie Générale de Géophysique, Petrosystems
and various TOTAL subsidiaries. After 37 years of worldwide exploration with TOTAL, he retired in 1991.
Now, he is writing articles and giving lectures. He has written several reports with Petroconsultants and
Petroleum Economist on the world’s oil and gas potential and future production. He was a member of the
“Society of Petroleum Engineers/World Petroleum Congress ad hoc Committee on joint definitions of petroleum
reserves” and also a member of the task force on “Perspectives Energie 2010-2020” for the “Commissariat
Général du Plan”. His graphs are used in the International Energy Agency 1998 report “World International
Outlook“ and in the World Energy Council 2000 report “Energy for Tomorrow’s World –Acting Now“. He chaired
the 2002 World Petroleum Congress (Rio de Janeiro) panel on hydrates (RFP9 "Economic Use of Hydrates:
Dream or Reality?")
Speakers
Harry Lehmann
After studying Physics at the University of RWTH Aachen, H Lehmann received his PhD from the
faculty of Environmental Sciences of Lüneburg University. In 1979, he started his research activities
at the Institute for „Eisenhüttenkunde“ (Iron Technologies) at the Aachen University. Later, he
founded the Engineering Consultancy “UHL Data“ for Systems Analysis and Simulation. From 1985 to
1998, H. Lehmann was a teacher at the Polytechnic of Aachen, Dpt. Jülich for „Numerical Methods in
Environmental and Energy Planning“ and „Solar Architecture for Engineers“. From 1991, he was
Head of the Systems Analysis Group, at the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy.
From 1992 to 1999, he was Vice President of the German section of Eurosolar, in 1994, he became
member and President of the European Board of Eurosolar as well as member of the Consultative
Committee „Renewable Energy Technologies“ of the Ministry of Economics of North-Rhine-Westfalia.
From 1996 to 2000, H. Lehmann was member of the European Board of the ”European Business
Council for a Sustainable Energy Future - E5“. During the following years, H. Lehmann was active
with various tasks, he was in the Enquête Commission of the Bavarian Parliament “With new energy
technologies in the next century”, as well as in an Enquête Commission of the German Parliament on
sustainable energy supply, he acted as a teacher for Environmental Sciences at Lüneburg University
and was a Director with Greenpeace International.
Since 1997, he has been working in the Consultative Committee „Solar Districts“ of the Building
Ministry and the Ministry of Regional Planning of North-Rhine-Westfalia, and since 1998 he has been
a member of the “Factor 10 Club“, Carnoules. In 2000, H Lehmann became Vice President of “Eurosolar”, and in 2001 Head of the “Institute for Sustainable Solutions and Innovations” (ISuSI). Since
2001, he is a member of the “World Renewable Energy Council“.
Rolf Linkohr
After studying Physics and Physical Chemistry at the Universities of Stuttgart, Munich and
Aberdeen/Scotland and an Industrial Apprenticeship at Bosch (S-Feuerbach) and Lavalette (Paris) R
Linkohr took his PhD on the Kinetics of Ion Exchangers in 1969. From 1970 to 1979, he was active in
reseach at Deutsche Automobil GmbH (DAUG), Esslingen-Mettingen (Development of Electric Car
Batteries). Since 1964, he has been member of the German Social-Democratic Party (SPD) where he
held prominent positions. In 1979, he became a Member of the European Parliament. From 1989 to
1994, he was Chairman of STOA (EP Scientific and Technological Options Assessment).Since 1999,
he has been a member of the Committee on Industry, External Trade, Energy and Research and a
substitute member of the Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Consumer Policy. In
2000, R Linkohr became Chairman of the Delegation for relations with the countries of South America
and MERCOSUR.
Speakers
Olivier Rech
O. Rech is Energy Analyst at the Economic Analysis Division of the IFP. He studied Economics at the
University of Pau (BA with distinction) and graduated in Business Administration from Tours Business
School. In 1999, he received a master’s degree in Energy Economics from the IFP School (with
distinction). O. Rech worked as a statistician analyst at the International Energy Agency – OECD and
as a lecturer on oil economics at ENSPM Formation Industrie (IFP Group). He wrote on topics of long
term energy scenarios published in Revue de l’Energie, Oil and Gas Science and Technology
Journal, Oxford Energy Forum, Revue de l’Union Française des Géologues.
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
Dr. H. W. Schiffer studied Economics at the University of Cologne and Pennsylvania State University.
From 1974 to 1978, he served as Scientific Assistant at the Institute for Energy Economics of the
Cologne University. After a nine-year career with the Federal Economics Ministry which included a
period with the British Department of Energy, he changed to the Federal Ministry for the Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety in 1987. After several years of work as personal assistant to
the parliamentary state secretary, he was appointed Head of the Product-Related Environmental
Protection division. Since 1992, he has been working with REW Group, Cologne, where he is Head of
the Energy Economy department of RWE Power.
Jörg Schindler
J. Schindler studied Business Economics at the University of Munich and aquired the degree of a
“Diplomkaufmann” in 1968. He worked in research and development in the area of traffic planning and
systems analysis for new transport systems. In 1984, he joined the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik
GmbH (LBST) in Ottobrunn. Since 1992, he has been Managing Director of the Ludwig-BölkowSystemtechnik GmbH and the L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH (which was founded in 1998 and since then
took over most of the activities).
With LBST he was involved in projects dealing with the market introduction of photovoltaics and other
renewable energy sources, clean driving systems for road transport, clean fuels produced from
renewable energy sources (like hydrogen), and the future availability of fossil fuels (especially oil and
gas). Currently, J. Schindler is involved in various responsibilities: he is a member of the board of „e 5“,
“The European Business Council for a Sustainable Energy Future“, and a member of the board of
„Global Challenges Network e.V.“ in Munich.
Speakers
Hartmut Schneider
After studying law at Frankfurt/Main University and working as a lawyer, H Schneider went to Paris in
order to study at the Ecole National d’Administration. In 1973, he joined the Federal Ministry of
Economics and was active in various departments focussing on foreign trade. In 1982, he
concentrated on energy matters, especially on coal policy. H Schneider is Chairman of the IEA
committee on Non-Member Countries (NMC), and Deputy Director General of „General and
International Energy Policy”/ EU, IEA, Oil Markets, R & D.
Bernd Senf
B. Senf has been Professor of Economics and Social Science at the Berlin School of Economics
since 1973. His main issues focus on the relation between economic structures and dynamics and
the living functions in man and nature. He is well known for his unorthodox views and his ability to
introduce complex systems in a clear way.
Frank Seyfried
F. Seyfried studied Chemical Engineering at the Technical University of Braunschweig. In 1992, he
finished his PhD thesis on “Optical measurements of temperature and concentration boundary layers
during crystallisation growth”. He became responsible for simulation and plant planning group at Ude
GmbH, a plant engineering company. In 1996, he joined Volkswagen AG and worked in the
production department where he was responsible for paint shop planning. In 1998, he switched to the
group’s research department developing fuel cell cars and gasoline reformers for fuel cells. Since
reorganization in 2002, he has been responsible for the production of fuels with the focus on
renewable fuels. He is also coordinator of the European funded Integrated Project RENEW
(Renewable Fuels for Advanced Power Trains) that started in January 2004.
Speakers
Matthew Simmons
Matthew Simmons is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Simmons & Company International, a
specialized energy investment banking firm. The firm has guided its broad client base to complete
over 500 investment banking projects at a combined dollar value of approximately $ 58 billion.
M. Simmons graduated cum laude from the University of Utah and received an MBA with Distinction
from Harvard Business School. He served on the faculty of Harvard Business School as a Research
Associate for two years and was a doctoral candidate.
In 1974 he founded Simmons & Company International. Over the past 28 years, the firm has played a
leading role in assisting its energy client companies in executing a wide range of financial
transactions from mergers and acquisitions to private and public funding. Today the firm has
approximately 130 employees and enjoys a leading role as one of the largest energy investment
banking groups in the world with offices in Houston, Boston, London, and Aberdeen.
M. Simmons’ papers and presentations are regularly published in a variety of journals and
publications including World Oil, Oil and Gas Journal, Petroleum Engineers, Offshore and Oil & Gas
Investors.
Fritz Vahrenholt
After taking his degree in Chemistry at the University of Münster/Westphalia and receiving a
doctorate in Chemistry, F. Vahrenholt started working in research at the University of Münster and at
the Max Planck Institute for Carbon Research, Mülheim. From 1976 to 1981, he was Head of the
section “Chemical Industry” in the Federal Environmental Agency in Berlin. In 1981, he became Head
of Department of Environmental Policy, Waste Management and Air Pollution Control at the Hessian
Ministry of Regional Development, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry. Four years later, he went
to Hamburg becoming the Deputy Minister in the City of Hamburg Environmental Ministry, and later,
in 1990, Head of Chancellery of the City of Hamburg. From 1991 to 1997, F. Vahrenholt became
Senator and Principal of the City of Hamburg Environmental Ministry; he was then Supervisory Board
Chairman of HEW, HWW, HSR, HSE (City of Hamburg municipal utilities for electricity, water supply,
cleansing and sewerage). From 1998 until 2001, he was member of the Board of Directors of Deutsche Shell AG with the responsibility for chemicals, renewable energy, public affairs, environment,
and electricity; in 2001 he became member of the supervisory board.
Since 1991, F. Varenholt has been a Lecturer at the University of Hamburg (Chemistry Department),
where he became a Professor in 1999. Currently, he is CEO of REpower Systems AG, Hamburg,
Chairman of the advisory board “SAM Smart Energy Fund”, Luxembourg, Chairman of the board of
the „Forum for Future Energy“, Berlin, President of “Association for environmental affairs”, Berlin,
member of the supervisory board of Norddeutsche Affinerie, Hamburg and ThyssenKrupp Industries
AG, Essen. He is member of the “Sustainability Advisory Board” to the German Chancellor.
Speakers
Friedrich.-Wilhelm Wellmer
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. mult. Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer studied Mining and Geology at the Technical
Universities Berlin and Clausthal. He worked for the German mining company Metallgesellschaft AG
and its Canadian and Australian subsidiaries in Europe, North and South America, Australia,
Oceania, and the Far East. Before joining the Federal Institute of Geosciences and Natural
Resources, the Federal German Geological Survey, BGR, in Hannover, he was Director of
Exploration at the Metallgesellschaft of Australia Pty. Ltd. in Melbourne. F-W Wellmer became
President of the BGR and the Lower Saxony Geological Survey in 1996. He also teaches Raw
Materials Policy and Economic Geology as a Professor at the Technical University Berlin. He was
awarded an honorary doctorate of the Technical University Mining Academy Freiberg in 1999 and of
the Technical University Clausthal in 2003.
Werner Zittel
W. Zittel studied physics in Munich and received his doctorate degree from the Technical University
Darmstadt in 1986. Since 1989, he has worked with the L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH in Ottobrunn,
Germany, a small consulting company to industry and government. His main areas of expertise are
environmental aspects of energy use and studies on hydrogen infrastructure scenarios.
Abstracts
Kjell Aleklett
Uppsala University, Sweden
From Paris to Berlin – steps towards the Final Countdown to Peak Oil
In Paris, ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas asked the question: “How to Make
the World Aware that the Party is Over?” I think that members of ASPO have been very successful,
and will cover a few of the steps that now take us to the final countdown to peak oil.
The first and probably the most important “step” was the fact that the Oil & Gas Journal carried an
article about the workshop in Paris. Doris Leblond – “ASPO openly denounce the "politically correct"
view held by most policymakers and institutions—not to mention oil companies—that "near-term oil
supply is mainly an economic and geopolitical concern." Altogether there have been nine articles
where ASPO has been mentioned.
Dr Colin Campbell has as usual been extremely active, so it’s not possible to mention all the articles,
conferences, radio- and TV-programs where he has discussed Peak Oil. I asked him to choose one
“step”, and he chose his article Reality and Illusion, which appears on our website, www.peakoil.net.
He selected it because it tried to relate peak oil with the important political and social factors and
consequences, placing the Oil Age in its historical context.
A very important event was the Conference “Oil Demand, Production and Cost – Prospect for the
Future” in Copenhagen, December 10th 2003 organized by the Danish Board of Technology. Dr Klaus
Illum has made a fantastic “step”
(see Conference Report on http://www.ida.dk/oilconference/pub/Report.pdf)
The interest from the media has exploded during the first months this year. More or less every day we
can see “foot steps” and read articles around the world about Peak Oil and ASPO. A search with the
exact words “Association for the Study of Peak Oil” gives thousands of hits. Just now, more then 1500
per day are visiting our web page, www.peakoil.net, increasing by hundreds per week. Many ask the
question – “Is the increasing price of gas the first sign of peak oil?” If the world has run out of spare
capacity, the answer might be Yes. But it is too early to know, as we probably have to pass the peak
before we will know for sure that we have done so.
Bob Williams told us in Oil&Gas Journal - ”Next Big Thing: Peak oil”, O&G J April 19, 2004.
The 3rd International Workshop on Oil & Gas Depletion is just now the next thing about Peak Oil. This
must a “Big” event.
Ugo Bardi
Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, Italy
The 4 Phases of the Hubbert Cycle: Economic and Social Consequences of Oil
Production Trends
The present paper argues that the abrupt change in some socioeconomic indicators that took place in
the early 1970s in the United States, and a few years later in Europe, (known as „The Great U-Turn“ of
the economy) is related to the worldwide trends of production of crude oil and in particular to the
variation of the net energy balance over the production cycle.
The Hubbert cycle (from zero to zero) for the production of a mineral resource is a „bell shaped“ curve.
Simulations of the Hubbert curve carried out by stochastic methods show that it is formed of four
distinct phases. The first phase is from the beginning of production to the first inflection point and is
characterized by positive and increasing production and net energy balance. The second phase starts
with the first inflection point and ends with the peak. This phase is characterized by increasing
production but by decreasing (although positive) net energy balance. In the third phase, from the peak
to the second inflection point, production decreases and net energy becomes negative, while
continuing to decrease. The fourth phase is characterized by a further decrease in production but the
calculations indicate that the net energy, although remaining negative, shows an upwards trend.
The phases of the Hubbert cycle may be related to the reversal of a number of socio-economic
indicators that took place in the years from 1970-1975 in the United States and some years later in
Europe and in other countries. Those years saw the reversal of some trends which had been well
established in the previous decades, e.g. a decrease in real wages, minimum wage level, average
savings of families and others. The 1970s saw also a reversal of social indicators such as the Gini
coefficient, starting a trend towards a higher social inequality.
The period in which these trends took place corresponds to the first inflection point of the worldwide oil
production curve. Since oil still represent the single most important energy source worldwide, it is
possible that these changes are related to the change in sign of the net energy curve for crude oil
extraction. Further, and possibly larger, changes in the socioeconomic indicator are expected to take
during the first decade of the 21st century as the Hubbert cycle enters its third phase after the
production peak.
Abstracts
David Bennett
Sustainable Transport Coalition, Australia
Moving towards a sustainable Perth – Western Australian Actions in the face of
diminishing oil supplies and increased prices
Dialogue with the City – planning with the community www.dpi.wa.gov.au/dialogue
Problem: Perth is a very dispersed City (similar to Los Angeles)
1.0
Action:

Search conference involving more than 1000 people in planning the future of Perth and the Metropolitan
area (based on similar Dialog in New York for the design of the Twin Towers site).

Outcome – a multi-node city, development around transport corridors, an urban growth boundary

Finding sustainable ways to manage population growth and retain and develop the character of Perth.
2.0
Sustainable Transport Coalition www.stcwa.org.au
The Sustainable Transport Coalition’s policy “Oil: Living with Less” advocates:





Charge the real costs of transport and oil;
Reduce car use and freight transport to conserve petroleum;
Make vehicles more efficient;
Develop and use alternative fuels; and
Reform transport energy policy.
Buses – Transperth www.pta.wa.gov.au
3.0



4.0
Australia has abundant gas reserves (40 years supply)– two thirds of these are off the coast of the North
West of Western Australia, with an already existing pipeline to Perth
Transperth’s fleet currently includes 99 CNG buses and a further 451 gas-powered Mercedes Benz
buses will be delivered over the next seven years.
The buses (model OC500LE) meet stringent Euro 4 environmental standards, in excess of Australia’s
new Euro 3 requirements.
Sustainable Transport Energy Program www.dpi.wa.gov.au/sustain/step.html

5.0
A major program of the Western Australian Government designed to increase the sustainability of our
transport systems and activities.
These include:
Fuel efficient cars – hybrids
Reducing fuel use
Shift from 6 to 4 cylinder vehicles
Increase the use of LPG vehicles
Transport Energy Strategy
Fuel Cell Bus Trial – first in Southern Hemisphere
International Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Futures Conference – 12 to 15 September 2004
Freight Network Review
Problem: Road freight carrying containers from the Port is threatening local communities through
ineffective use of existing freight infrastructure and demands for new roads through old suburbs and
valuable wetlands.
Solution: A community consultation process that included a multicriterion analysis where all parties agreed that
other actions would save the road building activity, including:




Containers-to Rail
Controlled access for trucks (with no empty journeys)
New rail facilities at the Port
Inland terminals and earlier planning for an outer harbour.
6.0 NewMetroRail – a new era in the development of urban passenger rail development.
www.newmetrorail.wa.gov.au
Perth to Mandurah rail-link. $1.4 billion project connecting Mandurah, Australia’s fastest growing city and
southern suburbs of Perth.

Includes 74km of rail track, 12 new stations and 93 new carriages.
Will double Perth’s urban rail network by 2007.

Dr. J.N. Breunese
Netherlands Institute of Applied Geoscience TNO, The Netherlands
Supply from Groningen and the small fields in the Netherlands,
how has it worked out and what’s ahead?
Small fields policy
The giant Groningen field and the close to 200 other small producing gas fields in the Netherlands
represent a family of fields with close relationships in terms of infrastructure and managing the supply
of volume, capacity and gas quality.
Shortly after the discovery of Groningen – the mother field – in 1959, the Dutch small fields policy was
introduced. This policy was, and still is, aimed at giving room for the exploration and fast development
of discoveries – the children fields -, using Groningen as the balance producer for matching supply
and demand.
Balancing
Due to its high production flexibility, the Groningen field has been able to act as both volume and
capacity balancer, serving not only the domestic market but the European export market as well. In
recent years, additional capacity measures have been taken in order to guarantee a high level of
security of supply for the coming decades, specifically: underground gas storages at Norg and
Grijpskerk, peak shaving at Alkmaar and compression facilities at Groningen.
The supply profile
The total volume output of the Groningen plus small fields system has been at a level of around 80
bcm/year, now slightly declining towards 70 bcm/year. Within this plateau-like supply profile, the share
of the Groningen field has been decreasing over the years from 100 bcm to some 20 bcm, but recently
has started increasing. This break marks the onset of the decline of supply from the small fields.
Forecasts indicate a further shift from non Groningen to Groningen production, if the total output level
of say 70 bcm/year is to be maintained.
The future
The small fields policy has been a demonstrable success in terms of maturing an additional
recoverable volume of about half of Groningen which, without this policy would not have happened.
Still, the system now seems to be in a rather mature stage. Time and mining activity and investment
levels have become critical factors determining the near future. Together with the liberalisation of the
European gas market, this poses serious challenges for the security of supply. Additional policy
measures now are being developed in order to stimulate exploration and production of the small fields
within the window of opportunity that is governed by the infrastructure life time and the stretch of the
balancing role of Groningen.
Abstracts
Francois Cahagne
Gaz de France, France
"LNG regional markets vs. OPEC gas"
The worldwide growth in the consumption of natural gas in all markets has led these markets to
search for new, always more distant, sources of supply. Over such distances, transport in the form of
LNG becomes competitive compared to transport by pipeline, mainly thanks to the reduction in costs
in the LNG chain and, a key advantage, the flexibility of the delivery points. Numerous LNG supply
projects have emerged over the last few years throughout the world, and most of them should enter
into operation in 2005-2006. At the same time, new producer countries have emerged.
For their part, producers of LNG realised that it was in their interest to trade on several markets.
Consequently, the markets, which until then were independent, became mixed up leading to a global
LNG market. This new situation opens the way to more flexible management modes that better tie in
with the possibilities of maritime transport. For the moment, the inter-regional developments are still
based on relatively traditional commitments between buyers and sellers, particularly through long term
contracts and “take or pay” agreements. This contractual mode remains a fundamental element for
ensuring the funding and the completion of new LNG exportation projects, but globalisation will
increase the possibilities of spot and short term arbitrage between major markets and the global
competition between the different players involved.
Announced in October 1999 at the International Gas Summit in Paris by Rem Viakhirev, at the time
president of the Russian company Gazprom, the idea of a gas OPEC was put forward as a possible
response to the level of natural gas prices, considered too low. In March 2004, at the 4 th annual Gas
Exporting Countries Forum, the creation of an executive board for the organisation to coordinate the
interests of LNG exporting countries (totalling 15) was announced. It was also decided at this meeting
to study a new mechanism for the commercialisation of natural gas and the implementation of new
contractual modes between producers and consumers, so as to guarantee the stability of the world
gas market (de-indexation of the price of gas from that of oil).
It is still too early to say with certainty what impact the creation of a “gas OPEC” would have. It does
however raise a certain number of questions with respect to the future of the gas market. Firstly, would
an agreement between producers, with a view to containing the supply in relation to the demand in
order to maintain a relatively high price of gas, not risk having the rebound effect of slowing down
demand? Another question: would a gas OPEC be willing to go in the direction of a decorrelation
between the price of gas and the price of oil and/or the creation of a strictly gas index, as is already
practised on the spot market? If this decorrelation existed and if the price of the gas regulated by the
producers rose too high in relation to the price of oil, could the development – or even the
maintenance – be ensured, given that gas is the only energy source that can be replaced in practically
all its uses by other energy sources? Furthermore, the full development of the spot LNG industry
presupposes a high degree of market flexibility, and therefore shipping and regasification extra
capacity, with the extra costs that this involves. Finally, it is worth pointing out that if the notion of a
gas OPEC were to reach fruition, it would be accompanied by a change of culture within the gas
industry. It would imply, in effect, among other things, the break up of the solidarity mechanism that
presently exists between buyers and sellers (the buyer’s commitment to volumes and the guarantee of
the competitiveness of the gas on the final market thanks to indexing mechanisms).
J. Peter Gerling
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources
BGR – Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover, Germany
Future gas potential: where – what – how much
According to BGR’s database, the current worldwide reserves – i. e. quantities currently technologically and economically recoverable – of conventional natural gas are 177 T.m3. Besides,
conventional natural gas resources – these are demonstrated quantities that cannot be recovered at
current prices with current technology but might be recoverable in the future, as well as quantities that
are geologically possible but not demonstrated – amount to another 207 T.m3. Under static conditions,
both categories satisfy the demand for 67 years and 145 years (reserves + resources), respectively.
Natural gas accounts already for about 24 % of the worldwide primary energy consumption, after
crude oil and hard coal. Considering the ongoing discussions about emission-free power plants, and
moreover, the political decision of various countries to phase out nuclear power will lead to a drastic
increase in demand for natural gas. As a consequence, the lifetime of conventional gas – both
reserves and resources – will decrease. On the other hand, this change in demand will lead to a much
quicker transfer of resources into reserves.
The question arises: Can we expect to find further gas from non-conventional sources? There are
considerable uncertainties in the estimates of recoverable amounts of non-conventional natural gas.
Global reserves are estimated to amount to only 2 T.m 3, because recovery technology is available
only for coal seam gas and tight gas. Moreover, conditions necessary for economic production are
present only in relatively small regions. We estimate non-conventional natural gas resources – not
including gas hydrates and aquifer gas – to amount to about 220 T.m 3 which is half of the estimated
ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas.
Estimates of the quantity of natural gas in gas hydrates and aquifers differ considerably and have a
high degree of uncertainty. Significant commercial production is not probable in the foreseeable future
– if at all.
Abstracts
Francis Harper
BP, USA
Oil Reserves Growth Potential
Oil and gas reserve estimates are inherently uncertain. Over time, as a field is developed and
produced, the estimate of the ultimate reserves that will be produced can vary substantially but the
general observed trend is that reserves will grow. This growth may take place for a variety of reasons,
for example, initial estimates may have been deliberately conservative, or changing technology may
have permitted more hydrocarbons to be recovered. At a field level, growth may occur because more
hydrocarbons-in-place are being recognised and tapped or because a higher recovery factor is being
achieved compared to that initially envisaged. At an aggregate level, growth may also occur through
under-reporting of fields. Reserves are also reported in different categories, often related to degrees
of confidence of their existence - because of their subjective nature, these are generally difficult to
compare and reserves growth measured for one category in a particular area may not be relevant to
growth for a different category or in a different area. In general the implications of reserves growth
calculated for a particular dataset should be restricted to that dataset and not extrapolated to other
datasets.
In the EIA proved reserves database for the Lower 48 states of the USA, the ’77-’91 numbers suggest
that fields grow by a factor of about 10 (in terms of proved reserves) over a period of 60 years or so
from their initial estimates. This implies a total reserves growth potential of over 20 bnbbl, significantly
more than the proved reserve at the time. But growth is primarily a function of big old fields. Smaller,
more recent fields tend to be more efficiently developed resulting in smaller future growth and this is
evident in the EIA dataset. The recent falloff in the amount of volumes being added by annual
revisions in the EIA data tend to confirm the conclusion that growth in the future may be significantly
less than in the past.
In the North Sea, data produced by the UK and Norway show that published reserves (which may be
considered proved + probable) grow by much less, on average by about 20-40% after 20 years from
development approval. But there is a wide spread of results and there are almost as many fields
showing reserves decline as there are showing reserves growth.
The worldwide data produced by IHS Energy is the most comprehensive compilation of reserve
estimates that is available and is widely used to assess the global resource base. But here also there
has been substantial growth in the numbers over the last decade or so, an addition of about 40 bnbbl
p.a. on top of an average discovered volume of about 15 bnbbl p.a. Growth results from a number of
sources, including the late recognition or reporting of some fields but also including the subsequent
addition of deeper pools within existing fields or increases in recovery factor. Whether or not this
growth can continue at a comparable rate remains to be seen.
Reserves growth is an important part of the global resource and must be taken into account in any
assessment of future production potential. But the magnitude of its contribution is not well understood
and more work in this area is needed.
Jeffrey A. Johnson
Exxon Mobil, USA
Long-Term Outlook for Energy - an ExxonMobil analysis
This presentation provides a view of world energy demand in the coming decades, a discussion of
current and future energy sources, the challenges energy companies face in supplying the world’s
needs, and the role of technology. The presentation also addresses the function of governments in
resource development, and a glimpse into the energy future including an overview on new fuels
technology such as fuel cells.
The outlook is for oil & gas to be the major energy source for the next 20 years. Energy demand will
continue to grow, and technology will play an important role in meeting growing demand. Renewables
will fill a niche, but be very small piece of the overall energy outlook.
Abstracts
Dierk Juch
Geologischer Dienst NRW, Germany
A new additional energy resource – coal mine gas of the Ruhr Mining District
Large quantities of gas developed during the transformation of organic matter into hard coal. The
major part of this gas escaped into the atmosphere at geological times and during mining activities.
Nevertheless there are still large quantities of methane left in the German deposits.
Despite the recovery of 12 Bill. (12*10 9) tons of hard coal during the last centuries in the Ruhr district
there are calculated 85 Bill. tons of remaining coal in place only in the mining zone. Considering also
the "exploration zone" this figure doubles.
As gas content values up to 10 cbm of gas/ton of coal are measured, a considerable gas potential can
be assumed still to exist. Normally fixed very closely to coal, mainly by molecular bonds, its migration
and extraction is facilitated by mine roads and works. The opening of tectonic structures, joints and
cleats during the process of mining leads to an additional favourable viability. The utilisation of the gas
on the local energy market recently was stimulated by appropriate legislation.
Thus the extraction of the dangerous coal mine gas from still working and abandoned mines leads to
an additional energy recovery, which simultaneously reduces the greenhouse-effect in the atmosphere.
Recently about 50 licences for the recovery or exploration of the gas are granted in the old Ruhr
mining district.
Literature
JUCH, D., GASCHNITZ, R.,THIELEMANN, T., 2001: Geologische Aspekte beim Auftreten von Grubengas
im Ruhrrevier, Oberhausener Grubengas-Tage 2001, 4 p., Oberhausen.
JUCH, D., ROOS, W.-F. & W OLFF, M., 1994: Kohleninhaltserfassung in den westdeutschen
Steinkohlenlagerstätten. - Fortschritte in der Geologie von Rheinland und Westfalen, 38. 189-307.
Krefeld.
JUCH, D., 1996: Assessment of West German hardcoal resources and its relation to coalbed methane.
- In: Gayer,R. & Harris, I (eds), Coalbed Methane and Coal Geology, Geological Society Special
Publication 109, 59-65. London.
JUCH, D., 1997: Results of the resources assessment in the west German hardcoal deposits. - In:
Proceedings of the XII. International Congress on the Carboniferous and Permian.- Part 2: 339 - 344,
9 fig., Warschau.
Martin Kaltschmitt, Matthias Reichmuth
Institute for Energy and Environment, Leipzig, Germany
Alternative fuels in Europe and Germany
What contribution is possible?
Alternative fuels become increasingly more important in Germany and in Europe especially due to the
European Biofuel Directive making possible the tax exemption granted in some European countries.
These are some of the reasons why the assessment of the possible contribution of alternative fuels
within the European and German energy system becomes more and more meaningful.
On this background such an assessment is based mainly on the questions outlined below.

What biomass is available to be converted into alternative fuels? The technical potential of organic
matter to be used as a source of energy consists of the available residues and organic waste
streams as well as on energy crops to be grown on agricultural land which is not needed for food
and fodder production. Most of the residues that can be used come from forestry (wood residues)
and agriculture (straw) including the subsequent industry (i.e. wood or food processing industry).
The possibilities of the cultivation of energy crops are directly dependent on the available
agricultural land. Miscanthus, cereals, and short-rotation wood plantations are the most promising
energy crops for the production of solid biofuels, sugar beet is most effective for producing ethanol,
rapeseed and sunflower seed can be used for the provision of biodiesel (FAME). Therefore firstly
the available biomass streams in Europe and Germany are analysed in detail.

What conversion technologies for the provision of alternative fuels are available? The production
of FAME and ethanol is state of technology. Such plants are operated on a large scale in various
countries. New promising technologies with new and innovative processes are based on the
thermo-chemical conversion of solid biomass into a synthesis gas and a subsequent synthesis of
liquid fuels based on this gas. Such processes can produce Fischer-Tropsch-Diesel,
Dimethylether (DME), Methanol and some other fuels. But these processes are not available on a
fully commercial basis yet. Therefore the aim of this part of the presentation is it to give an up to
date overview about the conversion technologies available for the provision of alternative fuels
from biomass.

Which technical potential of alternative fuels is available and what contribution is possible to
satisfy the given demand? Bases on the analysed biomass streams and the available conversion
technologies the technical potential of alternative fuels can be assessed. Such an analysis show
that the maximum technical potential for biofuels is almost 5 000 PJ/a for EU 25. Is only FAME
and ethanol used, the technical potential sums up to only 2 100 PJ for EU 25, using mostly (due to
the highest area related energy provision) sugar beet as an energy crop. Compared to this the
energy demand within the transport sector sums up to 12 800 PJ (EU 15) resp. 13 800 PJ (EU 25)
in 1999. Therefore alternative fuels can make a substantial contribution if other conversion paths
for biomass (like the provision of heat or electricity) are not taken into consideration. In Germany,
the technical potential for alternative fuels for the transport sector (using all fuels including biogene
FT-Diesel) is in the range of 650 PJ/a. If only FAME and ethanol are produced, approx. 260 PJ/a
can be reached; this assumes sugar beet plantations on 2 million hectare in Germany (17 % of the
total arable area). Compared to this the energy demand within the transport sector sums up to
approx. 2 800 PJ in 1999. These relations are deeply discussed within the presentation.

Where are the obstacles for the development of these potentials? The introduction of alternative
fuels within the transport sector is not only a question of the available technical potentials. This is
also an economic question. Additionally the technology should be ready on a large scale and the
frame conditions to be defined by the government should support such solution. Therefore the
goal of this part of the presentation is it to discuss and analyse such effects and factors.
These four aspects are discussed within the presentation. Statements will be given about the
quantitative contributions of alternative fuels within the energy system of Europe and Germany in
principle as well as possible contributions within the years to come.
Abstracts
Jean Laherrere
Association Française des Techniciens du Pétrole, France
Future of natural gas supply
There are three gas markets, against one world oil market, as gas is much more expensive to
transport. Forecasting production by continent needs to study the past discoveries as mean backdated
values. UK, Norway, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Denmark, France, Europe, FSU, US, Canada,
Mexico, OPEC, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand and world discovery and production are
studied. Production micmics discovery with a certain shift. The few field reserves databases provided
by scouting show large discrepancies. The FSU gas reserves are overestimated. Unconventional gas
resources are badly assessed worldwide. Oceanic hydrates resources have been drastically reduced
and no one knows how to produce them. During this decade, if the oil supply will likely satisfy the oil
demand, there will be likely local gas shortage as North America production will decline sharply and
Europe production will peak before 2005. Better rules and better data are needed.
E. R. Pat Murphy
Community Services, Inc., USA
Cuba, Peak Oil and Community
The Community Solution, a program of Community Service, Inc., sent staff members to Cuba twice in
2003 to learn how Cuba dealt with their premature experience of Peak Oil.
Scientists, economists and political leaders debate the date of peak oil and its consequences. One
country, Cuba, has already experienced the peak oil phenomena and did so with little warning. When
the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990’s, Cuba lost the oil and food imports on which it had
depended for 30 years. The country experienced a deep economic crisis. Farmers had no fuel for their
tractors or fertilizers and pesticides for their fields. The per capita calorie level fell from 2,908 to 1,863
calories per person per day. Transportation was severely curtailed. Two million bicycles were imported
from China. Half the buses stopped operating because of a lack of fuel. Electricity was set up on a
rolling black out basis, six hours on, six hours off – but often off longer. New construction was halted
due to lack of energy to make cement. Food, transportation, construction and utility industries barely
functioned due to the immediate 40 percent cutback in oil supplies.
Cuba immediately began the transformation to a sustainable low energy agrarian economy. The trend
to urbanization was reversed, with incentives offered to people to move to the country. What Cuba
calls a “modernized peasantry” was developed with farmers receiving the same wages as engineers.
Fertilizers and pesticides were replaced with biological agents and organic compost. Animal traction in
the form of oxen and horses replaced most of the tractors. The country quickly adopted an
environmentally friendly agricultural model that de-emphasized mechanization and the use of chemical
inputs. Today, urban farms and gardens supply from 50 to 80 percent of a city’s vegetables.
Havana’s transportation system was redesigned around massive buses which hold 300 people and
the number of private cars was significantly reduced. With little money to buy new cars and buses,
vehicles of every type and size became incorporated into Cuba’s equivalent of a mass transit system.
With virtually no public transportation between cities and provinces, decentralization of education,
services and food production (with food grown and goods made where they are used), became the
norm. Housing was similarly restricted and people were no longer allowed to move to Havana without
good reason.
The socialist system under which Cuba had operated since 1960 was restructured to incorporate
private enterprise. Land was made available for private farms. Many trades and professions were
removed from the list of state controlled activities. Private farmer’s markets were encouraged.
Cuban’s have the longest life span in Latin America, equivalent to that of the U. S. Infant mortality
rates are lower than the U. S. Education is free as well as medical care. Social Security is provided for
retirees. All students attend at least 12 years of schooling. The medical system is the best of any Latin
American country. Cuba has shown that a fulfilling life is possible without using massive amounts of
fossil fuels.
Cooperation within communities was fundamental to the success of Cuba during this transformation.
Without the values and practices of community, it is unlikely if Cuba could have weathered the storm
as well as they have.
Community Service, Inc. is seeking solutions to Peak Oil that focus on decentralization, curtailment and
efficiency
Abstracts
P. Alba (Consultant) & O. Rech
IFP, France
“A dynamic approach of oil production”
The “dynamic approach” establishes a link between the amount of ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) and
cumulative production of conventional crude oil, ultimate recoverable reserves being defined as the sum of
cumulative production over time since the birth of the oil industry. The amount of ultimate recoverable reserves is
necessarily imposing a constraint on the rate of cumulative production, although fluctuating over time. If we define
current production as the derivative of cumulative production, the amount of ultimate recoverable reserves is also
impacting the actual features of production: absolute level, rate of change, sign of the second derivative. The
estimate of the peak oil requires to go beyond usual time series and to study the phenomenon in all its
dimensions which bring invaluable information in assessing the internal dynamic of any non renewable resource
ultimately confronted to a limit (URR), of which conventional crude oil. Time by itself does not explain anything.
Rather, the time when annual crude oil production is supposed to reach a maximum is intimately linked to the rate
at which this maximum will be reached, i.e. the rate at which crude oil production will be growing below, at and,
consequently, beyond this maximum value.
A first approach consists in a linear extrapolation of cumulative production based on the following information:
URR estimate, current cumulative production, rate of change of current cumulative production. Future crude oil
production is then calculated as the first derivative of extrapolated cumulative production. By using three different
URR estimates (namely pessimists with 2500 Gb, optimists with 4000 Gb and USGS with 3021 Gb), we conclude
that peak oil should happen as soon as 2005 in the case of pessimists’ estimate, 2021 in the case of optimists’
estimate and 2008 in the case of the USGS’ estimate. However, this approach only considers the latest available
information and ignores the trend of the cumulative production curve.
A second approach consists in a linear extrapolation of cumulative production based on the following information:
cumulative production and corresponding rate of change over a given period of time. The estimate of URR is then
calculated as the intersection of the linear equation and the axis of cumulative production, URR being equal to
cumulative production when the rate of change ultimately drops to zero. As in the first approach, future crude oil
production is calculated as the first derivative of extrapolated cumulative production. We make the reasonable
assumption that the appropriate period of time to extrapolate the cumulative production curve ranges from 1988 to
2004 in order to eliminate the dramatic fluctuations associated to the 1973 and 1979 shocks and 1986 countershock. We conclude that the rate of change of cumulative production from 1988 onwards is consistent with URR
of 4028 Gt, which is in line with the so-called optimists’ estimate. Crude oil production would then peak in 2022 at
4080 Mt.
The approach presented is subject to uncertainties and limits. The uncertainties are associated to the nature of
world production as it includes three components showing very different behaviours : non-OPEC outside FSU,
FSU and OPEC. We believe that the dynamic approach is particularly suitable to non-OPEC production due to its
economic drivers. The cumulative production curve is then providing a synthesis of the factors stimulating
production (technology, high price) and constraining production (low price, geology, scarcity of prospects). On the
contrary, FSU and OPEC productions respond to other drivers: planned economy at least until the 80s for the
former, role of swing producer since 1973 for the latter. Linear extrapolation of cumulative production curves does
not make sense in those cases. However, appropriate graphical representation clearly suggest that the rate of
FSU production since the beginning of the 90s is not sustainable : production will be slowing down in the years to
come, maybe dramatically, and it appears most likely that maximum production level reached under the planned
economy era will not be surpassed. Consequently, a high level of uncertainty is associated to our estimate of
world peak oil (4080 Mt in 2022) and raises the question of OPEC potential supply over the long term.
The limits are associated to linear extrapolation: no single period of time in the history of crude oil production
shows a truly linear trend. Rather, production and cumulative production are following curved trends, which are
best estimated using a second degree polynomial equation. The sign of the curvature (x²) provides additional
information to the linear trend: a negative sign implies strong constraints on production (constraining factors
surpassing stimulating factors) whereas a positive sign implies low constraints (stimulating factors surpassing
constraining factors).
Beyond the numerical results presented here (date of peak oil, URR estimate), the aim of the dynamic approach
is to provide an analytical framework for analysts and policy makers in order to evaluate the consistency and
implications of URR estimates versus cumulative production and production scenarios versus the internal
dynamic of historical crude oil production.
Tobias Rehrl
IER University of Stuttgart, Germany
Developing Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction scenarios with Hubbert curves: The
LOPEX model
Many oil supply studies attempt to estimate future oil production and the occurrence of a peak in oil
production. But only little work has been carried out to match production scenarios with associated
demand and price paths. Oil price forecasts in the past mostly turned out to be quite ‘inaccurate’.
Many unpredictable factors influence the oil markets. Nevertheless, it can be quite instructive to
delineate fundamental long-term oil price scenarios in order to check for plausibility and estimate the
impacts of certain basic assumptions in oil markets.
For example there is big uncertainty about OPEC’s true oil reserve situation and how long OPEC will
be capable to extend (or respectively maintain) its production rate. Most long term scenarios (from IEA
and EIA) count on a significant OPEC production boost in the coming years from roughly 30 mbd
today to about 60 mbd in the year 2030. Apart from the viability of such an immense production
increase, this work focuses on the question which price/production balance could make economic
sense for OPEC. This is particular of interest when thinking of non-OPEC supply constraints in the
future as indicated by several Hubbert models.
In order to sketch out long-term oil price and extraction scenarios the LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and
EXtraction) model was developed. In LOPEX the approach of intertemporally optimal depletion of an
exhaustible resource – known from the Hotelling model – is combined with the Hubbert approach. The
intention was to compensate the main handicaps of both approaches.
According to Hotelling, producers rank all resources by their supply cost and recover them in order of
increasing cost. This is undermined in reality by the discovery process which restricts free oil
availability and sets cost trends depending on cumulative discoveries and production. Contrary to the
Hotelling model, the Hubbert model aims to describe such restrictions on oil availability. However,
major shortcoming of the Hubbert model is its lack of any economic context. Several attempts have
been made to incorporate economic variables econometrically into the Hubbert model. With LOPEX
the somewhat reciprocal approach is followed to integrate Hubbert curves in a model of intertemporal
optimal resource depletion. For that, utility and limits in the use of Hubbert curves are discussed by
looking at the nature of logistic growth in the exploration process. In doing so, the integration of
technical progress is particularly considered. Based on these discussions and on empirical
observations a linkage between Hubbert curves and the oil price is proposed in order to model pricedependent non-OPEC oil production by means of Hubbert curves.
LOPEX implies the standard oil market model of a perfect cartel (OPEC) with a competitive fringe
(non-OPEC). Oil production paths and the world oil price path are both derived endogenously from
OPEC’s intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the pricedependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand.
World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from the
POLES model. LOPEX results indicate that OPEC had acted quite optimal in 10 years average since
1976. From around 2020 upwards a significant higher oil price compared to the reference price path
and a stagnating market share of around 40 % will be optimal for OPEC. If in addition it is assumed
that the huge shale oil resources will never become economically available (because of a negative
energy return), then the resulting immense price increase seems highly implausible, indicating heavy
structural interruptions at the demand side in the future that are not integrated into the model.
Abstracts
Bruce Robinson
Sustainable Transport Coalition, Western Australia
"TravelSmart" Individualised Marketing
Behaviour change - Equivalent to discovering another Iraq?
Proven methods of reducing automobile travel can produce “nega-barrels” of oil more
cheaply and quickly than oil exploration can find new oil.
Global oil production is forecast to peak within a few years then decline, while demand, especially for
transport fuel, is expected to continue rising on current trends. This leaves a growing, enormous
demand-vs.-supply gap.
Swenson (1) proposed a simple fourfold model as to how this gap
may be bridged, and this has been extended (2) into this sevenfold schema which illustrates that:(a) There will be no one "magic bullet" substitute for current cheap
plentiful oil, but there are many achievable measures that can
reduce demand and some to provide moderate amounts of
alternative fuels
(b) The most probable substitute for cheap plentiful oil is likely to
be expensive and less plentiful oil, and
(c) It is crucial to start adjustments now for living with less oil.
Implementing many of the countermeasures will already take
longer than the time available before oil shortages hit us.
One of the seven mechanisms shown for bridging the growing gap is shifting from oil-intensive travel
(for instance automobiles) towards more energy-efficient transport modes like walking, bicycle
transport and public transport. This, coupled with related reduction in overall travel, has already been
shown to make a substantial difference, even in the absence of the imperatives that will come when oil
shortages begin to bite deeply.
Well-documented large programmes in cities in Germany, Australia and Sweden have shown
sustained reductions of an average of 13% in distances travelled by car (19% in Berlin and 17% in
South Perth) at a very favourable cost-benefit ratio. Individualised marketing to inform interested
people of already available travel options is all that is involved. TravelSmart is one name used in
Australia for the strategy developed by Munich firm Socialdata and proven in Perth (Socialdata, 2004,
WA Government 2004).
About half of the oil consumed worldwide is used for road transport. If TravelSmart-style programs
were introduced, nationally and globally, it would be reasonable to expect a reduction in motor vehicle
kilometres of the order of 5-10%, even without other behaviour modifiers like price and tax increases
or fuel shortages. A 10% reduction in global motor vehicle travel would save perhaps 4 million barrels
of oil per day, about twice the daily production of Iraq. A 5% reduction would save one "Iraq". When
oil shortages begin to affect communities, there will be even greater incentive to reduce travel and to
make it more efficient. TravelSmart is a "No-Regrets" option, already justified on social and economic
grounds. As a shield to reduce our oil vulnerability and coupled with climate change fears, it is
additionally valuable. Reduction in motor vehicle usage will also usually lead to healthier, happier and
more equitable communities and improve local and global pollution levels. The negative effects of
automobile dependence on health are now well documented. The epidemic of obesity in much of the
developed world (like Australia, the US and UK) would reduce if more people walked to catch a bus, or
bicycled to school rather than going everywhere by car.
There are many reasons to reduce our car usage but oil depletion is a crucial one. TravelSmart is one
proven tool to begin the adaptation to living with less oil.
Reference details are at www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrels
Markus Botte
Socialdata Australia Pty Ltd, Institute for Transport and Infrastructure Research
Individualised Marketing
REDUCING CAR KILOMETRES – A GLOBAL APPROACH
Credible forecasters state a peaking of global oil supply in the near future. Our reliance on private car
use makes us extremely vulnerable to changes in oil supply and there is currently no readily available,
viable alternative to fossil fuel in the transportation sector. To prepare for the future, the dependence
on private motor vehicles needs to be reduced now. Individualised Marketing (IndiMark®) can help to
close the gap between supply and demand, by informing and encouraging communities to use
alternative ways of travelling. Reducing the demand for fuel contributes to the sustainability and
stability of our environment; achieves a more efficient use of scarce transport resources; and results in
global benefits extending beyond the present critical need to decrease our fossil fuel reliance.
The traditional approach to changing travel behaviour has been through various measures, such as
restrictions on private car use or the provision of additional transport services and infrastructure. But
capital investments in transportation infrastructure will not be fully utilised if people are unaware of the
improvements.
IndiMark® recognises that there is often a gap between public perception of alternative modes of
transport and the reality. Due to a lack of personal experience, or lack of information about the readily
available options, travelling on foot, by bicycle or by public transport can seem less attractive than it
actually is. As a result most people make trips by car, many of which could be made just as easily by
other modes.
IndiMark® creates a dialogue with people and offers local, up-to-date information on transport
alternatives, with additional support for trying them out. It encourages people to make greater use of
alternatives by offering them personalised travel information, often not readily available to them.
IndiMark® improves people's perceptions of the services and facilities available. By making more
informed travel choices, people significantly reduce their car kilometres and costs by switching to other
transport modes.
IndiMark® empowers individuals to make their own travel choices; it is voluntary and focuses on
enabling people to switch just a few car trips a week to an environmentally friendly way of travelling.
These small changes contribute to large changes overall.
IndiMark® is a successful approach and an effective tool for reducing reliance on private car use
in more than 50 projects with over 300,000 participants, in the European Union, the United
States of America and Australia.
The achievments of IndiMark® reflect a sustained reduction in car trips associated with a relative
reduction in car kilometres travelled. Evaluations of large-scale projects have shown an average
relative reduction in car kilometers traveled by up to 19% in Germany, up to 17% in Australia and 13%
in Sweden. In addition IndiMark® offers economic benefits that far exceed its costs and so provides
“free” reductions in fossil fuel consumption and related emission.
The results of IndiMark® have shown that the number of activities and trips per person per day is
almost unchanged. This indicates that we do not change people’s need for transport, but we do
contribute to behavioral change in transport. The (proportionate) reduction in car km is due to a
combination of mode shift and destination shift of car driver trips, a higher proportion of trips taking
place to local destinations.
Abstracts
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
RWE Power, Germany
Investing in the renewal of the power plant population is the key to underpinning European electricity
supplies and to making progress in preventing climate change. This being so, underlying political
conditions must be designed to encourage investment while creating incentives for further
developments in the state of the art in all power-generation technologies.
This is true of coal and natural gas as it is of nuclear and renewable energies, since the construction
of new power plants with ultra-modern technology to replace legacy systems offers excellent
opportunities for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and for doing so at relatively
low cost. Coal in particular, as the world’s most important input energy for generating power, promises
new technological solutions able to increase efficiencies to a level of > 50 % within the next 10 to 15
years, with a zero-CO2 power plant as vision for the period after 2020.
Hence, the tools to be used, like trading in CO2 allowances, which will come into effect in the EU as of
2005, must be fine-tuned in a way that avoids any discrimination of energy sources and offers a
perspective for coal. Isolated climate-policy efforts made in Europe are unlikely to yield any progress
in climate protection. The only effect will be a relocation of production and, hence, pseudo savings in
GHG emissions. Instead, the necessary re-alignment of global climate policy must be based on joint
efforts made by the community of states. To this end, commitments to limit emissions must be given
by all states with significant GHG emissions, including developing countries. Also, targets must be
moderate if economic development is not to be choked. Energy and climate policy must do equal
justice to the three sustainability goals of economic, environmental and social compatibility.
Jörg Schindler
Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik, Germany
Hydrogen – Activities in the US, Japan and Europe
This presentation focuses on the use of hydrogen as a transport fuel. The reason is that hydrogen as
a fuel for mobile applications has many advantages and it is very likely that it will be relevant in the
near future, whereas hydrogen for stationary applications has a more long term perspective or is
restricted to niche markets. Also the interest of this conference is focused on oil and possible
alternatives especially for transport.
The following topics will be addressed:

Options for hydrogen production and fuel infrastructure.

The rapidly increasing number of hydrogen fuel stations.

Demonstration projects to operate hydrogen vehicles and vehicle fleets.

Activities of the automotive industries to further develop hydrogen vehicles based on internal
combustion engines and on fuel cells.

Activities to arrive at harmonised regulations within the three areas and globally regarding vehicles.
Also regulations with a local and regional scope regarding the implementation of a hydrogen
infrastructure.

Public awareness of hydrogen as a fuel.
In addition to the description of the activities in US, Japan and Europe there is a short description
given of recent activities in China.
The presentation shows that there is a wealth of activities and demonstration projects ranging from the
production of hydrogen to the supply and use in road vehicles. Big players in the automotive industry
undertake huge efforts to commercialize hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle technologies. The first large
hydrogen vehicle fleets will be introduced between 2005 and 2010. The first series manufactured
hydrogen vehicles will be on the market in the time frame 2010 to 2015. After that we will see a ramp
up to a mass market.
There is a clear political backing for alternative fuels and hydrogen in Europe, in Japan and in the US.
Significant advances in all areas have taken place in the last few years. A consensus has developed
that hydrogen is the most promising fuel in the medium and long term and that it is the best facilitator
for the introduction of renewable energy sources into transportation. Also hydrogen is the most flexible
energy vector for enabling a smooth transition from today‘s to tomorrow‘s energy and transportation
system.
Abstracts
Jennifer A. Sears and Paul L. Sears
Ottawa, Canada.
Gas from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin - What Next?
Gas from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin makes up all but a few per cent of Canada'a
production, and about 23% of North American production. Canada'a National Energy Board issues
yearly forecasts on short-term (two year) deliverability of gas from the basin, and these reports contain
considerable detail on the number and characteristics of connections made to gas sources in each
year, including initial output and patterns of decline. This information has been extrapolated and used
to produce an outlook for the decade beginning in January 2002. This outlook is rather less optimistic
than either of the two "scenarios" described in the National Energy Board's report "Canada'a Energy
Future - Scenarios for Supply and Demand to 2025". It nevertheless matches the actual output for the
beginnings of the years 2003 and 2004, which show significant declines from the 2002 output.
Bernd Senf
Technical University of Berlin, (Berlin School of Economics), Germany
Economic Growth and Interest System
It is a widespread opinion that economic growth is an absolute necessity for the wealth of nations and
of the world. On the other hand natural resources - including oil - which are needed for production and
consumption are limited. If so why shouldn’t economic growth at least be stopped – especially in
industrial highly developed countries?
No living organism in nature grows infinitely, and if a part of it tends to do so, we call it cancer, which
will destroy the organism – and the tumor. Is economic growth the cancer of the living organism earth?
Are there any deeper reasons which force mankind to continue this way – until the end of life on
earth?
There is indeed one important reason (not the only one) which up to now is treated like a taboo and
which is deeply anchored in the structure and dynamics of capitalism: the interest and compound
interest, which makes money grow exponentially – not only saving and capital, but symmetrically also
the debts and the annual interest burden, which has to be paid by debitors, otherwise they will break
down. In order to avoid the breakdown, debitors stand under permanent pressure of economic growth,
which in the long run cannot really satisfy the growing hunger of capital for more and more interest.
By this the interest system unavoidably tends to produce several crisis symptoms and some kind of
economic and ecological breakdown within several decades. People(s) should open their eyes in
order to realize this danger and the deeper reasons and to find constructive ways out. There exist
already serious proposals for a reform of the monetary system and for a “Money of the Future” –
without the long-run destructive consequences of interest system and permanent economic growth.
More on this issue:
Margrit Kennedy: Money without interest and inflation.
Bernard A. Lietaer: The Future of Money.
Bernd Senf: Der Nebel um das Geld.
www.geldreform.de
www.inwo.de
www.berndsenf.de
Abstracts
Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources
BGR – Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover, Germany
Future energy – what can the BGR contribute?
The German government and its ministries, its subordinate agencies, as well as the Members of the
German Bundestag, rely on the Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) [Federal
Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources] as its central geoscientific advisory institution to
provide them with the means to competently and independently analyse and evaluate issues from a
geoscientific point of view. The BGR is a scientific-technical institution belonging to the Federal
Ministry of Economics and Labour (BMWA). Its advisory responsibilities cover long-term issues as well
as current political topics.
Regarding natural resources, the BGR is the only institution in Germany that systematically collects
data on global resources focusing on the reserves, production and availability of mineral and energy
resources. This vital database is needed to provide credible advice under various circumstances
including urgent assessments of sudden shortages of natural resources or sudden price increases.
The BGR also is a knowledge and information base for the German industry. With its applicationoriented focus, the BGR makes various strategic contributions such as boosting economic dynamism
by providing the German industry and its associations with advice on geo-relevant issues. Areas in
which advice is currently being given include for example the availability of mineral resources with
specific material properties, and oil and gas potential in previously unexplored or inaccessible regions.
Global energy consumption, and particularly oil and gas consumption, has continuously risen in recent
decades alongside economic growth and the global population increase. Organisations in this field
forecast that this trend will continue for the next two to three decades. In the latest World Energy
Outlook published by the International Energy Agency, the demand for oil is forecast to grow by sixty
per cent by 2030. According to this forecast, world consumption of crude oil would grow from today’s
figure of 3.5 Gt (gigatons) to around 5.8 Gt in 2030.
Given the finite nature of the non-renewable energy resources oil, gas, coal and
uranium, this raises two questions: firstly, how long will the various energy resources
last, and secondly, the people’s growing awareness of environmental problems
requires an answer to the question of to what extent each energy resource can be
replaced by other sources of energy in the medium to long term given the different
lifetimes of the reserves. A prerequisite for answering these questions is the profound
knowledge of the amount of the reserves and the regional distribution of each
individual energy resource.
BGR
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources
BMWA
German Ministry of Economics and Labour
DGMK
Deutsche Wissenschaftliche Gesellschaft für Erdöl, Erdgas und Kohle e.V.
DGS
German Society for Solar Energy
IER
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, University of Stuttgart
IFP
French Institute of Petroleum
NLfB
Geological Survey of Lower Saxony
ODAC
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
OGP
International Association of Oil and Gas Producers
POST
Parliamentary Office of Science & Technology
SWP
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik