A Scenario Game on the
Future of African American Identity
By Gerald Harris
Author and Scenario Futurist
www.artofquantumplanning.com
gerald@artofquantumplanning.com
August, 2010
Background
The purpose of this short presentation is to create debate.
I am purposefully being a little “over the top,” in the
scenario descriptions to generate reactions, and not to
offend any one, so keep this in mind as you read on.
The scenarios map/matrix shown here is intended to
present multiple possible future states which can be used
like building blocks. Starting positions and movement
through the scenario map is the essence of the game I am
inviting you to play. More instructions are given at the end
of this document.
Have fun with these!
The Issue: Change
Human society is always evolving. I believe we are now as a species at a
significant inflection point in our evolution. Some call it post-modernism, which I
will not bother to try to define, as it seems to have too many definitions to make
sense to me right now. Suffice it to say that post-modernism is trying to
describe the next evolution of mankind driven by, among others the following
forces:
•Globalization and integration of our economies
•The emergence of global instant communication within and among civilizations
•Unrelenting and multifaceted technological innovation (e.g., digital technology,
bio-science/DNA/human genome, cosmology/Hubble Space Telescope, and
new Physics)
•Exploding new forms of media
•A need for global political consensus around values to support emerging forms
of global governance
These forces are putting pressure on group and individual identities as
they are forcing change on the cultures from which identities are
grounded.
The Issue: Identity
Individual and group identity emerge from culture, family, historical conditions,
and from the integration of mega trends into group and individual behaviors and
values. This is not always a stress-free or smooth process. It can be full of
conflict and confusion. However, it cannot be avoided. Change must occur.
Many groups in the world are facing this pressure, among them:
•The Arab World (see President Obama’s speech in Cairo) or the cultural
undertone in the speeches of Osama Ben Laden
•Indigenous and primitive societies as globalization encroaches (examples
throughout South America)
•Tibetan society and its conflict with modernizing China
•Eastern Europeans as they integrate into the European Community
African Americans cannot escape this pressure for evolution and increasing
integration into the emerging world. Old identities grounded in the primacy of
the slavery experience must evolve.
The Issue as it affects African Americans
African American make up slightly over one-half of 1% of humankind, and are
an accident of history (colonialism, British Empire, the slave trade, American
history). As a group African Americans have made substantial contributions to
the world in many fields including: science, politics, culture and human rights.
More contributions are coming.
However, the trends listed previously are global and contextual in nature and
African Americans cannot avoid them. Therefore, the question arises, how will
African American integrate those trends into a new identity?
Historically African American fortunes have been heavily influenced by two
factors: our role in the economy and the pace and direction of social change
(integration into or isolation from the larger American society). I will use these
two major drivers to create the scenario map/matrix overleaf. The scenario
descriptions which follow should be thought of as about 5 years in duration.
They are the pieces of the game.
Future of African American Identity
Scenario Map
Below are summary descriptions of the range of uncertainty of the major
drivers. These are the opposite extremes which can develop. Crossing these
two will create our scenario map overleaf.
African American Social Evolution
Ghettoized*
Global
Limited
Expansive
Specific
Cross-Fertilized
Shape of Economic Integration
Isolated
Absorbed
Rich/Poor Divide
Rise with Tide
*This term is not intended to be used in a pejorative or negative sense, but in the more general sense of being in an
involuntary isolated social position.
Future of African American Identity
Scenario Map and Titles
The 21st Century
Plantation
African American
Ghettoized
The Big Step Back
Shape of Economic Integration
Absorbed
Obama’s World
Social Evolution
Global
The New Talented
10th
Isolated
Future of African American Identity
Scenario Map and Icons
Absorbed
Icons: Music Record
Companies, Owners of
NBA teams
African American
Ghettoized
The Big Step Back
Icons: Rev. Al Sharpton,
Rev. Jeremiah Wright
Shape of Economic Integration
The 21st Century
Plantation
Obama’s World
Icons: Barack Obama, Oprah
Winfrey, Jay-Z
Social Evolution
Global
The New
Talented 10th
Isolated
Icons: Ken Chenault
(CEO of American
Express), Richard
Parsons (CEO of
Time Warner
Scenario Highlights:
The 21st Century Plantation
• Slow but steady recovery from the impact of the 20082010 on Black wealth as larger US recovers
• Black community still struggling with lack of access to
capital to grow native businesses.
• Vast majority of Black spending outside its own
community
• Best and brightest cream-skimmed into larger culture
• Rising cost of higher education shuts Blacks out and
forces them into poor quality for-profit education
• African American culture as a brand in the larger world
media complex with heavy sexual content
• Racial politics remains a real factor in US
Scenario Highlights:
Obama’s World
• Global economic growth returns by 2012, Obama
reelected
• Fast recovery from the impact of the 2008-2010 on Black
wealth as larger US recovers
• Conservative politics dissolves in its own malfunction
• Next generation politics of diversity moves to the center
• US expands education investment as down payment on
the future and Black youth benefit
• Global culture and identity revolution outside the US
moves toward positive shared values
• A diverse musical scene with Pop, Hip-Hop, Jazz and
Rock all expanding into global media
Scenario Highlights:
The New Talented 10th
• Uneven recovery of Black wealth from the 2008-2010
recession, wealth division leads to social division
• Obama reelected but with no movement on the racial
divide–as President he remains “above it”
• Global economic recovery slow and fractured, wealth
divide expands in the US
• Inadequate investment in education plus rising costs of
higher education allows few Blacks in
• A diverse musical scene with Pop, Hip-Hop, Jazz and
Rock but no defining innovations emerge
• Struggle for identity in many cultures remains in conflict
Scenario Highlights:
The Big Step Back
• Long term impact of the 2008-2010 is devastating to
Black wealth
• US enters period of deflation and economic decline
• Social strife and racial division arise again as poor are
pitted against the poor
• Rising cost of higher education shuts Blacks out and
forces them into poor quality for-profit education
• Conservative backlash against Obama Presidency leads
to reemergence of Conservative right-wing politics
• Return of innovative protest music, intense Blacks-only
cultural norms emerge
Playing the African American Future
Identity Game
There are several ways you can play with scenarios as building blocks:
1. Expand the summary ideas I gave on the scenario descriptions and
add your own to make them deeper and more useful.
2. Where do you think African Americans are today—which scenario?
3. Depending on your starting scenario, where are African Americans
likely to move?
4. Might there be movement in cycles between the scenario spaces
over time, say 20 years?
You can email me at: gerald@artofquantumplanning.com to let me
know how you are doing with the game. Have fun!
Future of African American Identity
Scenario Map: the Game*
The 21st Century
Plantation
African American
Ghettoized
The Big Step Back
*The game is the movement
among the scenario states,
using them like building blocks.
Shape of Economic Integration
Absorbed
Obama’s World
Social Evolution
Global
The New Talented
10th
Isolated
*Arrow movements
explained overleaf.
Future of African American Identity
Scenario Map: Playing the Game
The movements below are my initial ideas of moving from one world to
another. What are your ideas of the movements?
•
•
•
•
Movement from Obama’s World to the 21st Century Plantation will be driven by
people who want more separate identities and feel sold out. They will not realize that
moving that way in will allow isolation within a the powerful forces of media.
Movement from the 21st Century Plantation the New Talented 10th will be driven by
people who will decry the isolated feeling in their world, but will not realize the only
route to Obama’s World is through the New Talented 10th who must open doors as
powerful examples.
Movement from the Back Step Back world will be driven by people who are weary of
the social isolation and will push for the economic integration which can only be
achieved initially by the doors opened through a 21st Century Plantation path.
Movement from the New Talented 10th will be driven by people who want a bigger
share of the economic pie and will push assimilation as the path of integration into an
Obama’s World.
Enjoy and Share!