Aviation Weather Dynamically Speaking Written for the Notre Dame Pilot Initiative By the Pilots of the University of Notre Dame “Teaching the Science, Inspiring the Art, Producing Aviation Candidates!” Quote Just remember, if you crash because of weather, your funeral will be held on a sunny day. –Layton A. Bennett Lesson Plan Will learn Atmosphere & Global Circulation Weather & Climate Clouds & Stability Weather Forecasting Will be able to recite Air Mass Types Lapse Rates Stages of Thunderstorm Development Types of Fog & Clouds Will be able to distinguish Pictures of different cloud types The Atmosphere & Global Circulation “Teaching the Science, Inspiring the Art, Producing Aviation Candidates!” Atmospheric Composition Oxygen 21% Argon 1% Other 0% Nitrogen 78% Earth's atmosphere has a unique composition of gases when compared to that of the other planets in the solar system. At greater altitudes, the same volume of air contains fewer molecules of the gases that make it up. This means that the density of air decreases with increasing altitude. The earth's atmosphere thins rapidly with increasing altitude and is much closer to the earth than most people realize. Thermal Model of the Atmosphere Sunlight Angle On a global, yearly basis, the equatorial region of the earth receives more direct incoming solar radiation than the higher latitudes. As a result, average temperatures are higher in the equatorial region and decrease with latitude toward both poles. This sets the stage for worldwide patterns of prevailing winds, high and low areas of atmospheric pressure, and climatic patterns. Global Wind Patterns Hot air rises over the equator due to the fact that it is less dense. This is called the intertropical convergence zone This rising air cools as it rises resulting in precipitation in the region of the ITCZ. The air then travels north and south at high altitude. Global Circulation With Globe, Coriolis Seasons – Have kid stand on table as sun Chris Columbus trades With Fan, demonstrate orthographic lifting Global Wind Patterns Hot air rises over the equator due to the fact that it is less dense. The cooled air descends to reach the surface at about 24 ON and 24 OS of the equator. This forms a high pressure area The great deserts of the world are located in this high pressure area Coriolis Effect An object in motion in the northern hemisphere appears to turn to the right. An object in motion in the southern hemisphere appears to turn to the left. Global Circ Pix Part of the generalized global circulation pattern of the earth's atmosphere. The scale of upward movement of air above the intertropical convergence zone is exaggerated for clarity. The troposphere over the equator is thicker than elsewhere, reaching a height of about 12 mi. Air sinks over a highpressure center that moves away from the center on the surface, veering to the right in the Northern Hemisphere to create a clockwise circulation pattern. Air moves toward a lowpressure center on the surface, rising over the center. As air moves toward the low-pressure center on the surface, it veers to the left in the Northern Hemisphere to create a counterclockwise circulation pattern. Pressure Areas Weather and Climate “Teaching the Science, Inspiring the Art, Producing Aviation Candidates!” Definition Weather is a description of the changeable aspects of the atmosphere, the temperature, rainfall, pressure, and so forth, at a particular time. These changes usually affect your daily life one way or another, but some of them seem more inconvenient than others. Air Masses Polar air mass An air mass that moves from a cold region Tropical Air Mass An air mass that moves from a warm region Continental Air Mass Moves in from a land mass Maritime Air Mass Moves in from over an ocean Air Mass Types Temperature/ Hot Moisture Cold Wet Tropical Maritime Polar Maritime Dry Tropical Continental Polar Continental Current Weather Clouds and Stability “Teaching the Science, Inspiring the Art, Producing Aviation Candidates!” Types of Clouds Cumulus (heaped) Stratus (layered) Cirrus (curled) Nimbus (rain) How a Cloud Forms Temperature and Dewpoint Converge Water Condenses on Particles (Dirt, Dust, Smoke) Fog is a cloud very near to the surface Precipitation Precipitation is water in the liquid or solid form that returns to the surface of the earth. The precipitation you see here is liquid, and each raindrop is made from billions of the tiny droplets that make up the clouds. The tiny droplets of clouds become precipitation by merging to form larger droplets or by the growth of ice crystals that melt while falling. Condensation Nucleus (0.2 microns) Average Cloud Droplet (20 microns) Large Cloud Droplet (100 microns) Drizzle Droplet (300 microns) Average Rain Drop (2000 microns) This figure compares the size of the condensation nuclei to the size of typical condensation droplets. Note that 1 micron is 1/1,000 mm. Stability Air may be: Unstable (vertically) Cumulus clouds Stable (vertically) Stratus clouds Cumulus Fair weather Lapse Rate Altitude (ft.) 2000 1500 1000 In therm al 3 deg/1000 ft 500 Std. Conditions 2 deg/1000 ft 0 19 21 23 25 27 T(°C) The average lapse rate (rate of cooling) is 2° C per 1,000 feet or 3.5° F per 1,000 feet In order to calculate the base of thermal driven cumulus clouds, divide the temperature / dewpoint spread by the lapse rate (4.4 ° F per 1,000 feet ) Altocumulus Mackerel sky Altocumulus at Sunrise Temperature Inversion Altitude (ft.) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 2 4 6 T (°C) 8 10 Fog is a cloud very near to the surface Types of Fog Radiation (ground) fog Advection fog Requires wind Warm air over cold land or water Upslope (orographic) fog Requires wind Steam fog Lake or ocean source of water Cold air over warm water Precipitation fog (rain fog) Radiation Fog From the Air Advection Fog Upslope Fog Upslope Fog Steam Fog Most types of fog form in stable atmospheric conditions. The exception is steam fog, shown in this picture of Maligne Lake, Alberta, Canada, just after sunrise in late summer. The land cools off overnight while the water retains heat from the summer. As the cooled air slips over the lake, heat and moisture are added from below, resulting in a fog that twists and writhes-- hence the term "steam fog". Orchard Fans like this one are used to mix the warmer, upper layers of air with the cooling air in the orchard on nights when frost is likely to form. Stratocumulus Ice possible in the tops Stratocumulus from above Stratocumulus Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning Red sky at night, sailors’ delight—only applies in the tropics Types of Clouds Cumulus (piled up) Stratus (layered) Cirrus (curled) Nimbus (rain) Cirrus Overrunning moisture Cirrostratus Moisture increasing Cirrostratus Hazy circle round the moon Means that rain is coming soon! Cirrostratus Condensation Trails (Contrails) Cirrocumulus Thunderstorms Thunderstorms require Unstable air Moisture Lifting mechanism T-storms always have lightning Thunder is the sound of lightning T-storms are reported when thunder is heard Only true for manned observation posts Automatic Reporting (AWOS) detects lightning discharge Three stages in the life of a thunderstorm cell. (A) The cumulus stage begins as warm, moist air is lifted in an unstable atmosphere. All the air movement is upward in this stage. (B) The mature stage begins when precipitation reaches the ground. This stage has updrafts and downdrafts side by side, which create violent turbulence. (C) The final stage begins when all the updrafts have been cut off, and only downdrafts exist. This cuts off the supply of moisture, and the rain decreases as the thunderstorm dissipates. The anvil-shaped top is a characteristic sign of this stage. Lightning Different parts of a thunderstorm cloud develop centers of electric charge. Lightning is a giant electric spark that discharges the accumulated charges. Thunderstorms Types of thunderstorms Air mass Frontal Upslope (orographic) Hail These hailstones fell from a thunderstorm in Iowa, damaging automobiles, structures, and crops. Cumulonimbus Distance to a Storm Thunderstorm Bad Idea Cumulonimbus From Space Boundaries between air masses = fronts Types of Fronts Cold Warm Stationary Occluded Weather Fronts Front A boundary between two different air masses Cold Front When a cold air mass moves into a warmer area, displacing the warm air mass Provides lift to adiabatically cool the warm air, resulting in towering cumulus and thunderclouds. A cold air mass is similar to a huge, flattened bubble of cold air that moves across the land. The front is the boundary between two air masses, a narrow transition zone of mixing. A front is represented by a line on a weather map, which shows the location of the front at ground level. Cold Front Pix Warm Front When a warm air mass moves into an area, displacing the cold air mass A gently sloping front as the Warm air moves over top of the cooler air. Stationary Front When the edge of a front ceases to advance Warm Front Pix An idealized warm front, showing a warm air mass overriding and pushing cold air in front of it. Notice that the overriding warm air produces a predictable sequence of clouds far in advance of the moving front. Occluded Front One that has been lifted completely off the ground Has a low pressure center and cyclonic activity Cyclones Cyclone A low pressure area with winds moving into the low pressure area and being forced upward. Friction and the Coriolis effect cause the air to move to the right of the direction of movement. Anticyclone A high pressure center L H Hurricane John This is a satellite photo of hurricane John, showing the eye and counterclockwise motion Storm Tracks Cyclonic storms usually follow principal storm tracks across the continental United States in a generally easterly direction. This makes it possible to predict where the low-pressure storm might move next. Weather Forecasting “Teaching the Science, Inspiring the Art, Producing Aviation Candidates!” Computer Models Weather Predictions Weather predictions are based on information about air masses, fronts, and associated pressure systems in an area. This information is used to produce a model of behavior for weather using a computer. Many models are used and then summarized when the different models agree fairly closely to a model of the weather. Surface Pressure/Precipitation Plot Predicted Actual Forecast for today Supercomputers Supercomputers make routine weather forecasts possible by solving mathematical equations that describe changes in a mathematical model of the atmosphere. This "fish-eye" view was necessary to show all of this Cray supercomputer at CERN, the European Center of Particle Physics. Example of Atmospheric Refraction Where’s the pot of gold?