Chapter 17 Options and Corporate Finance McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Key Concepts and Skills Understand option terminology Be able to determine option payoffs and profits Understand the major determinants of option prices Understand and apply put-call parity Be able to determine option prices using the binomial and Black-Scholes models McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Chapter Outline 17.1 Options 17.2 Call Options 17.3 Put Options 17.4 Selling Options 17.5 Option Quotes 17.6 Combinations of Options 17.7 Valuing Options 17.8 An Option Pricing Formula 17.9 Stocks and Bonds as Options 17.10 Options and Corporate Decisions: Some Applications 17.11 Investment in Real Projects and Options McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.1 Options An option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a given quantity of an asset on (or before) a given date, at prices agreed upon today. Exercising the Option Strike Price or Exercise Price The act of buying or selling the underlying asset Refers to the fixed price in the option contract at which the holder can buy or sell the underlying asset. Expiry (Expiration Date) The maturity date of the option McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Options European versus American options In-the-Money Exercising the option would result in a positive payoff. At-the-Money European options can be exercised only at expiry. American options can be exercised at any time up to expiry. Exercising the option would result in a zero payoff (i.e., exercise price equal to spot price). Out-of-the-Money Exercising the option would result in a negative payoff. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.2 Call Options Call options gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a given quantity of some asset on or before some time in the future, at prices agreed upon today. When exercising a call option, you “call in” the asset. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Call Option Pricing at Expiry At expiry, an American call option is worth the same as a European option with the same characteristics. If the call is in-the-money, it is worth ST – E. If the call is out-of-the-money, it is worthless: C = Max[ST – E, 0] Where ST is the value of the stock at expiry (time T) E is the exercise price. C is the value of the call option at expiry McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Call Option Payoffs Option payoffs ($) 60 40 20 20 40 50 60 80 100 120 Stock price ($) –20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin –40 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Exercise price = $50 Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Call Option Profits Option payoffs ($) 60 Buy a call 40 20 10 20 –10 40 50 60 80 100 120 Stock price ($) –20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin –40 Exercise price = $50; option premium = $10 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.3 Put Options Put options gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell a given quantity of an asset on or before some time in the future, at prices agreed upon today. When exercising a put, you “put” the asset to someone. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put Option Pricing at Expiry At expiry, an American put option is worth the same as a European option with the same characteristics. If the put is in-the-money, it is worth E – ST. If the put is out-of-the-money, it is worthless. P = Max[E – ST, 0] McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put Option Payoffs Option payoffs ($) 60 50 40 20 0 Buy a put 0 20 40 50 60 80 100 Stock price ($) –20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin –40 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Exercise price = $50 Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put Option Profits Option payoffs ($) 60 40 20 10 Stock price ($) –10 20 40 50 60 80 100 Buy a put –20 –40 McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Exercise priceCopyright = $50; option premium = $10 Option Value Intrinsic Value Call: Max[ST – E, 0] Put: Max[E – ST , 0] Speculative Value The difference between the option premium and the intrinsic value of the option. Option Premium McGraw-Hill/Irwin = Intrinsic Value + Speculative Value Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.4 Selling Options The seller (or writer) of an option has an obligation. The seller receives the option premium in exchange. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Call Option Payoffs Option payoffs ($) 60 40 20 20 40 50 60 80 100 120 Stock price ($) –20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin –40 Copyright= © 2007 Exercise price $50by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put Option Payoffs Option payoffs ($) 40 20 0 Sell a put 0 20 40 50 60 80 100 Stock price ($) –20 –40 Exercise price = $50 –50 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option payoffs ($) Option Diagrams Revisited Buy a call 40 10 –10 –40 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Sell a call Buy a call Sell a put 40 50 60 Stock price ($) 100 Buy a put Exercise price = $50; option premium = $10 Sell a call Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.5 Option Quotes Option/Strike Exp. IBM 130 Oct 138¼ 130 Jan 138¼ 135 Jul 138¼ 135 Aug 138¼ 140 Jul 138¼ 140 Aug McGraw-Hill/Irwin --Call---Put-Vol. Last Vol. Last 364 15¼ 107 5¼ 112 19½ 420 9¼ 2365 4¾ 2431 13/16 1231 9¼ 94 5½ 1826 1¾ 427 2¾ 2193 6½ 58 7½ Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes This option has a strike price of $135; Option/Strike Exp. 130 Oct IBM 130 Jan 138¼ 135 Jul 138¼ 135 Aug 138¼ 140 Jul 138¼ 140 Aug 138¼ --Put---Call-Vol. Last Vol. Last 5¼ 107 364 15¼ 9¼ 420 112 19½ 4¾ 2431 13/16 2365 5½ 94 9¼ 1231 2¾ 427 1¾ 1826 7½ 58 6½ 2193 a recent price for the stock is $138.25; July is the expiration month. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes This makes a call option with this exercise price in-themoney by $3.25 = $138¼ – $135. Option/Strike Exp. 130 Oct IBM 130 Jan 138¼ 135 Jul 138¼ 135 Aug 138¼ 140 Jul 138¼ 140 Aug 138¼ --Put---Call-Vol. Last Vol. Last 5¼ 107 364 15¼ 9¼ 420 112 19½ 4¾ 2431 13/16 2365 5½ 94 9¼ 1231 2¾ 427 1¾ 1826 7½ 58 6½ 2193 Puts with this exercise price are out-of-the-money. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes Option/Strike Exp. IBM 130 Oct 138¼ 130 Jan 138¼ 135 Jul 138¼ 135 Aug 138¼ 140 Jul 138¼ 140 Aug --Call---Put-Vol. Last Vol. Last 364 15¼ 107 5¼ 112 19½ 420 9¼ 2365 4¾ 2431 13/16 1231 9¼ 94 5½ 1826 1¾ 427 2¾ 2193 6½ 58 7½ On this day, 2,365 call options with this exercise price were traded. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes The CALL option with a strike price of $135 is trading for $4.75. --Call---Put-Option/Strike Exp. Vol. Last Vol. Last IBM 130 Oct 364 15¼ 107 5¼ 138¼ 130 Jan 112 19½ 420 9¼ 138¼ 135 Jul 2365 4¾ 2431 13/16 138¼ 135 Aug 1231 9¼ 94 5½ 138¼ 140 Jul 1826 1¾ 427 2¾ 138¼ 140 Aug 2193 6½ 58 7½ Since the option is on 100 shares of stock, buying this option would cost $475 plus commissions. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes Option/Strike Exp. IBM 130 Oct 138¼ 130 Jan 138¼ 135 Jul 138¼ 135 Aug 138¼ 140 Jul 138¼ 140 Aug --Call---Put-Vol. Last Vol. Last 364 15¼ 107 5¼ 112 19½ 420 9¼ 2365 4¾ 2431 13/16 1231 9¼ 94 5½ 1826 1¾ 427 2¾ 2193 6½ 58 7½ On this day, 2,431 put options with this exercise price were traded. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Quotes The PUT option with a strike price of $135 is trading for $.8125. --Put---Call-Option/Strike Exp. Vol. Last Vol. Last 5¼ 107 364 15¼ 130 Oct IBM 9¼ 420 112 19½ 130 Jan 138¼ 4¾ 2431 13/16 2365 135 Jul 138¼ 5½ 94 9¼ 135 Aug 1231 138¼ 2¾ 427 1¾ 1826 140 Jul 138¼ 7½ 58 6½ 140 Aug 2193 138¼ Since the option is on 100 shares of stock, buying this option would cost $81.25 plus commissions. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.6 Combinations of Options Puts and calls can serve as the building blocks for more complex option contracts. If you understand this, you can become a financial engineer, tailoring the risk-return profile to meet your client’s needs. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Protective Put Strategy (Payoffs) Value at expiry Protective Put payoffs $50 Buy the stock Buy a put with an exercise price of $50 $0 $50 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Value of stock at expiry Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Protective Put Strategy (Profits) Value at expiry Buy the stock at $40 $40 Protective Put strategy has downside protection and upside potential $0 -$10 -$40 McGraw-Hill/Irwin $40 $50 Buy a put with exercise price of $50 for $10 Value of stock at expiry Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Covered Call Strategy Value at expiry Buy the stock at $40 $10 Covered Call strategy $0 Value of stock at expiry $40 $50 -$30 Sell a call with exercise price of $50 for $10 -$40 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option payoffs ($) Long Straddle Buy a call with exercise price of $50 for $10 40 30 Stock price ($) 30 –20 McGraw-Hill/Irwin 40 60 70 Buy a put with exercise price of $50 for $10 $50 A Long Straddle only makes money if the stock price moves $20 away from $50.Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option payoffs ($) Short Straddle This Short Straddle only loses money if the stock price moves $20 away from $50. 20 Sell a put with exercise price of $50 for $10 Stock price ($) 30 –30 McGraw-Hill/Irwin –40 40 $50 60 70 Sell a call with an exercise price of $50 for $10 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put-Call Parity: p0 + S0 = c0 + E/(1+ r)T Option payoffs ($) Portfolio value today = c0 + E (1+ r)T Portfolio payoff Call bond 25 25 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Stock price ($) Consider the payoffs from holding a portfolio consisting of a call with a strike price of $25 and a bond with a future value of $25. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Put-Call Parity Portfolio payoff Option payoffs ($) Portfolio value today = p0 + S0 25 Stock price ($) 25 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Consider the payoffs from holding a portfolio consisting of a share of stock and a put with a $25 strike. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Portfolio value today E = c0 + (1+ r)T 25 Option payoffs ($) Option payoffs ($) Put-Call Parity Portfolio value today = p0 + S0 25 25 Stock price ($) 25 Stock price ($) Since these portfolios have identical payoffs, they must have the same value today: hence T=p +S Put-Call Parity: c + E/(1+r) 0 © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill 0 Companies, 0 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright Inc. All rights reserved. 17.7 Valuing Options The last section concerned itself with the value of an option at expiry. This section considers the value of an option prior to the expiration date. McGraw-Hill/Irwin A much more interesting question. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. American Call ST Option payoffs ($) Profit Call 25 Market Value Time value Intrinsic value ST E Out-of-the-money loss McGraw-Hill/Irwin In-the-money C0 must fall within max (S0 – E, 0) < C0 < S0. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Option Value Determinants 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Stock price Exercise price Interest rate Volatility in the stock price Expiration date Call + – + + + Put – + – + + The value of a call option C0 must fall within max (S0 – E, 0) < C0 < S0. The precise position will depend on these factors. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.8 An Option Pricing Formula We will start with a binomial option pricing formula to build our intuition. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Then we will graduate to the normal approximation to the binomial for some real-world option valuation. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model Suppose a stock is worth $25 today and in one period will either be worth 15% more or 15% less. S0= $25 today and in one year S1is either $28.75 or $21.25. The risk-free rate is 5%. What is the value of an at-the-money call option? S0 S1 $28.75 = $25×(1.15) $25 $21.25 = $25×(1 –.15) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model 1. 2. A call option on this stock with exercise price of $25 will have the following payoffs. We can replicate the payoffs of the call option with a levered position in the stock. S0 S1 C1 $28.75 $3.75 $21.25 $0 $25 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model Borrow the present value of $21.25 today and buy 1 share. The net payoff for this levered equity portfolio in one period is either $7.50 or $0. The levered equity portfolio has twice the option’s payoff, so the portfolio is worth twice the call option value. S0 ( S1 – debt ) = portfolio C1 $28.75 – $21.25 = $7.50 $3.75 $25 McGraw-Hill/Irwin $21.25 – $21.25 = $0 $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model The value today of the levered equity portfolio is today’s value of one share less the present value of a $21.25 debt: S0 $21.25 $25 (1 rf ) ( S1 – debt ) = portfolio C1 $28.75 – $21.25 = $7.50 $3.75 $25 $21.25 – $21.25 = McGraw-Hill/Irwin $0 $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model We can value the call option today as half of the value of the levered equity portfolio: S0 1 $21.25 C0 $25 2 (1 rf ) ( S1 – debt ) = portfolio C1 $28.75 – $21.25 = $7.50 $3.75 $25 $21.25 – $21.25 = McGraw-Hill/Irwin $0 $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model If the interest rate is 5%, the call is worth: 1 $21.25 1 $25 20.24 $2.38 C0 $25 2 (1.05) 2 C0 S0 ( S1 – debt ) = portfolio C1 $28.75 – $21.25 = $7.50 $2.38 $25 $21.25 – $21.25 = McGraw-Hill/Irwin $3.75 $0 $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Binomial Option Pricing Model The most important lesson (so far) from the binomial option pricing model is: the replicating portfolio intuition. Many derivative securities can be valued by valuing portfolios of primitive securities when those portfolios have the same payoffs as the derivative securities. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Delta This practice of the construction of a riskless hedge is called delta hedging. The delta of a call option is positive. Recall from the example: Swing of call $3.75 0 $3.75 1 D Swing of stock $28.75 $21.25 $7.5 2 • The delta of a put option is negative. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Delta Determining the Amount of Borrowing: 1 $21.25 1 $25 $20.24 $2.38 C0 $25 2 (1.05) 2 Value of a call = Stock price × Delta – Amount borrowed $2.38 = $25 × ½ – Amount borrowed Amount borrowed = $10.12 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Risk-Neutral Approach S(U), V(U) q S(0), V(0) 1- q S(D), V(D) We could value the option, V(0), as the value of the replicating portfolio. An equivalent method is risk-neutral valuation: q V (U ) (1 q) V ( D) V (0) McGraw-Hill/Irwin (1 r ) Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. fAll rights reserved. The Risk-Neutral Approach S(U), V(U) q S(0), V(0) q is the risk-neutral probability of an “up” move. 1- q S(0) is the value of the underlying S(D), V(D) asset today. S(U) and S(D) are the values of the asset in the next period following an up move and a down move, respectively. V(U) and V(D) are the values of the option in the next period following an up move and aCopyright down© 2007 move, respectively. McGraw-Hill/Irwin by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Risk-Neutral Approach S(U), V(U) q q V (U ) (1 q) V ( D) V (0) (1 rf ) S(0), V(0) 1- q S(D), V(D) The key to finding q is to note that it is already impounded into an observable security price: the value of S(0): S (0) q S (U ) (1 q) S ( D) (1 rf ) A minor bit of algebra yields: q McGraw-Hill/Irwin (1 rf ) S (0) S ( D) S (U ) S ( D) Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example of Risk-Neutral Valuation Suppose a stock is worth $25 today and in one period will either be worth 15% more or 15% less. The risk-free rate is 5%. What is the value of an at-the-money call option? The binomial tree would look like this: $28.75 $25 (1.15) q $25,C(0) $21.25 $25 (1 .15) 1- q McGraw-Hill/Irwin $28.75,C(U) $21.25,C(D) Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example of Risk-Neutral Valuation The next step would be to compute the risk neutral probabilities q q (1 rf ) S (0) S ( D) S (U ) S ( D) (1.05) $25 $21.25 $5 2 3 $28.75 $21.25 $7.50 2/3 $28.75,C(U) $25,C(0) 1/3 McGraw-Hill/Irwin $21.25,C(D) Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example of Risk-Neutral Valuation After that, find the value of the call in the up state and down state. C (U ) $28.75 $25 2/3 C ( D) max[$ 25 $28.75,0] $25,C(0) 1/3 McGraw-Hill/Irwin $28.75, $3.75 $21.25, $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example of Risk-Neutral Valuation Finally, find the value of the call at time 0: C (0) q C (U ) (1 q) C ( D) (1 rf ) C (0) 2 3 $3.75 (1 3) $0 (1.05) C (0) $2.50 $2.38 (1.05) 2/3 $28.75,$3.75 $25,$2.38 $25,C(0) 1/3 McGraw-Hill/Irwin $21.25, $0 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Risk-Neutral Valuation and the Replicating Portfolio This risk-neutral result is consistent with valuing the call using a replicating portfolio. 2 3 $3.75 (1 3) $0 $2.50 C0 $2.38 (1.05) 1.05 1 $21.25 1 $25 20.24 $2.38 C0 $25 2 (1.05) 2 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Black-Scholes Model C0 S N(d1 ) Ee rT N(d 2 ) Where C0 = the value of a European option at time t = 0 r = the risk-free interest rate. σ2 N(d) = Probability that a ln( S / E ) (r )T standardized, normally 2 d1 distributed, random T d 2 d1 T variable will be less than or equal to d. The Black-Scholes Model allows us to value options in the real world just as we have done in the 2-state world. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Black-Scholes Model Find the value of a six-month call option on Microsoft with an exercise price of $150. The current value of a share of Microsoft is $160. The interest rate available in the U.S. is r = 5%. The option maturity is 6 months (half of a year). The volatility of the underlying asset is 30% per annum. Before we start, note that the intrinsic value of the option is $10—our answer must be at least that amount. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Black-Scholes Model Let’s try our hand at using the model. If you have a calculator handy, follow along. First calculate d1 and d2 ln( S / E ) (r .5σ 2 )T d1 T ln( 160 / 150) (.05 .5(0.30) 2 ).5 d1 0.52815 0.30 .5 Then, d 2 d1 T 0.52815 0.30 .5 0.31602 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Black-Scholes Model C0 S N(d1 ) Ee d1 0.52815 d 2 0.31602 rT N(d 2 ) N(d1) = N(0.52815) = 0.7013 N(d2) = N(0.31602) = 0.62401 C0 $160 0.7013 150e .05.5 0.62401 C0 $20.92 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.9 Stocks and Bonds as Options Levered equity is a call option. The underlying asset comprises the assets of the firm. The strike price is the payoff of the bond. If at the maturity of their debt, the assets of the firm are greater in value than the debt, the shareholders have an in-the-money call. They will pay the bondholders and “call in” the assets of the firm. If at the maturity of the debt the shareholders have an out-of-the-money call, they will not pay the bondholders (i.e. the shareholders will declare bankruptcy) and let the call expire. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Stocks and Bonds as Options Levered equity is a put option. The underlying asset comprises the assets of the firm. The strike price is the payoff of the bond. If at the maturity of their debt, the assets of the firm are less in value than the debt, shareholders have an in-the-money put. They will put the firm to the bondholders. If at the maturity of the debt the shareholders have an out-of-the-money put, they will not exercise the option (i.e. NOT declare bankruptcy) and let the put expire. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Stocks and Bonds as Options It all comes down to put-call parity. E c0 = S0 + p0 – (1+ r)T Value of a call on the firm Value of a Value of = the firm + put on the – firm Stockholder’s position in terms of call options McGraw-Hill/Irwin Value of a risk-free bond Stockholder’s position in terms of put options Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Mergers and Diversification Diversification is a frequently mentioned reason for mergers. Diversification reduces risk and, therefore, volatility. Decreasing volatility decreases the value of an option. Assume diversification is the only benefit to a merger: Since equity can be viewed as a call option, should the merger increase or decrease the value of the equity? Since risky debt can be viewed as risk-free debt minus a put option, what happens to the value of the risky debt? Overall, what has happened with the merger and is it a good decision in view of the goal of stockholder wealth maximization? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example Consider the following two merger candidates. The merger is for diversification purposes only with no synergies involved. Risk-free rate is 4%. Market value of assets Face value of zero coupon debt Debt maturity Asset return standard deviation McGraw-Hill/Irwin Company A $40 million $18 million Company B $15 million $7 million 4 years 40% 4 years 50% Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example Use the Black and Scholes OPM (or an options calculator) to compute the value of the equity. Value of the debt = value of assets – value of equity Company A Company B Market Value of Equity 25.72 9.88 Market Value of Debt 14.28 5.12 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example The asset return standard deviation for the combined firm is 30% Market value assets (combined) = 40 + 15 = 55 Face value debt (combined) = 18 + 7 = 25 Combined Firm Market value of equity 34.18 Market value of debt 20.82 Total MV of equity of separate firms = 25.72 + 9.88 = 35.60 Wealth transfer from stockholders to bondholders = 35.60 – 34.18 = 1.42 (exact increase in MV of debt) McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. M&A Conclusions Mergers for diversification only transfer wealth from the stockholders to the bondholders. The standard deviation of returns on the assets is reduced, thereby reducing the option value of the equity. If management’s goal is to maximize stockholder wealth, then mergers for reasons of diversification should not occur. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Options and Capital Budgeting Stockholders may prefer low NPV projects to high NPV projects if the firm is highly leveraged and the low NPV project increases volatility. Consider a company with the following characteristics: MV assets = 40 million Face Value debt = 25 million Debt maturity = 5 years Asset return standard deviation = 40% Risk-free rate = 4% McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example: Low NPV Current market value of equity = $22.706 million Current market value of debt = $17.294 million NPV MV of assets Asset return standard deviation MV of equity MV of debt McGraw-Hill/Irwin Project I $3 $43 30% Project II $1 $41 50% $23.831 $19.169 $25.381 $15.169 Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example: Low NPV Which project should management take? Even though project B has a lower NPV, it is better for stockholders. The firm has a relatively high amount of leverage: With project A, the bondholders share in the NPV because it reduces the risk of bankruptcy. With project B, the stockholders actually appropriate additional wealth from the bondholders for a larger gain in value. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example: Negative NPV We’ve seen that stockholders might prefer a low NPV to a high one, but would they ever prefer a negative NPV? Under certain circumstances, they might. If the firm is highly leveraged, stockholders have nothing to lose if a project fails, and everything to gain if it succeeds. Consequently, they may prefer a very risky project with a negative NPV but high potential rewards. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example: Negative NPV Consider the previous firm. They have one additional project they are considering with the following characteristics Project NPV = -$2 million MV of assets = $38 million Asset return standard deviation = 65% Estimate the value of the debt and equity MV equity = $25.453 million MV debt = $12.547 million McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Example: Negative NPV In this case, stockholders would actually prefer the negative NPV project to either of the positive NPV projects. The stockholders benefit from the increased volatility associated with the project even if the expected NPV is negative. This happens because of the large levels of leverage. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Options and Capital Budgeting As a general rule, managers should not accept low or negative NPV projects and pass up high NPV projects. Under certain circumstances, however, this may benefit stockholders: The firm is highly leveraged The low or negative NPV project causes a substantial increase in the standard deviation of asset returns McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 17.12 Investment in Real Projects and Options Classic NPV calculations generally ignore the flexibility that real-world firms typically have. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Quick Quiz What is the difference between call and put options? What are the major determinants of option prices? What is put-call parity? What would happen if it doesn’t hold? What is the Black-Scholes option pricing model? How can equity be viewed as a call option? Should a firm do a merger for diversification purposes only? Why or why not? Should management ever accept a negative NPV project? If yes, under what circumstances? McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.