U.S. Consumer Staple Market Presenters Industry: Target: Wal-Mart: Costco: Jim Shi Chris Yoo Doug Huxter Wendy Choi Consumer Staples Definition: – Include any company that manufactures and sells food/beverages, tobacco, prescription drugs and household products – Includes following industry Food & Drug Retailing Food & Beverage & Tobacco Household & Personal Products – E.g. Proctor & Gamble, Coca Cola, Wal-mart Types of Retailers Department stores – Wide variety of products – Ex. Sears Demographics – Stores aimed at certain segment – Ex. Gap Discounters – Membership club or low priced variety store – Ex. Costco Wal-mart Porter’s 5 Forces Low Threat of new entrants: – Large concentration of retail chain stores – Decreasing number of independent retailers – Barriers to entry Favorable supply contract: centralized buying power Favorable lease contract Requires large amounts of capital Porter’s 5 Forces (cont’) Suppliers’ power: limited power to negotiate relatively to large retail chain stores Buyers’ power: – Individuals with limited purchasing power – collectively, customers can demand high quality products at a bargain price; Porter’s 5 Forces (cont’) Substitute threat: high, products offered in one retail chain are available in others Rivalry: slow market growth leads to fierce price competition Historical Trend U.S. Retail Sales in Past 5 Years Annual Sales (in Trillions of Dollars) $4.20 $4.12 $4.00 $3.85 $3.80 $3.62 $3.60 $3.47 $3.40 $3.39 $3.20 $3.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Annual Changes in U.S. Retail Sales for 2001-2005 $300 Chart Made Based on Data Collected from: Title: Retail and Food Services Series ID: RSAFSNA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce : Census Bureau Release: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally adjuted Frequency: Monthly Units: Millions of Dollars Retrieved on Nov. 15/2006 at: http://www.forecasts.org/data/data/RSAFSNA.htm Annual % Change 7.00% $235 6.00% $266 $250 $200 5.00% 4.30% 4.00% 3.00% 6.91% 6.49% $150 $149 2.19% 2.00% $100 $74 $50 1.00% 0.00% $0 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 Years 2004-2005 Annual $ Change (in Billions of Dollars) 8.00% Seasonal Cycle U.S. Retail Sales Monthly $430 Billions of Dollars $410 $390 $370 $350 $330 $310 $290 $270 $250 Jun. 2004 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 2005 Mar. Apri. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2006 Feb. Mar. Apri. May Jun. Month Changes in Monthly Sales 20.00% 15.00% $40 10.00% $20 5.00% $0 -$20 Jun. 2004 Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 2005 Mar. Apri. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 2006 Mar. Apri. May Jun. 0.00% -5.00% -$40 -10.00% -$60 -15.00% -$80 -20.00% -$100 -25.00% Month $ % Changes in % Changes in Billions of $ $60 Company Size by Revenues 7% 8% 48% Other Walmart Target Costco 37% Retail Metrics Revenues, net income and profit margins Number of stores Same store sales Sales per square foot Target market Driving Force Overview Low priced goods Location Product line Market cycle (economy), Employment Consumer confidence level Natural disaster Low-priced Goods Efficient distribution network Constant search for low-cost goods – Import goods from countries with low cost labour Large volume discount Strategically located stores Flexible workforce – Part-time – Non-unionized vs. unionized Location Store density Urban vs. Suburban Land value of location Product Line Price vs. quality – High-end: Urban Fare, Nordstroms – Mixed: the Bay, Target – Low-end: Wal-Mart Variety of goods sold – Primarily grocery store (Top Food, Safeway) – Primarily hard products (Best Buy, Home Depot) – Primarily soft products (the Bay, the Brick) US Economy Indicator slowing economy – Cooling housing market slowing economy (housing starts) – High energy price – Stabilized interest rates – Household income Housing Starts Housing Starts (in thousands of units) Monthly Housing Starts in 2006 2,500 2,265 2,000 1,500 2,132 1,972 1,832 1,953 1,833 1,760 1,674 1,772 1,486 1,000 500 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apri. May Jun. Jul. Month for Year 2006 Aug. Sep. Oct. Increasing Oil Price Oil Price (in dollars per barrel) Monthly Spot Oil Price for 2006 $72.00 $70.00 $68.00 $66.00 $64.00 $62.00 $60.00 $58.00 $56.00 $69.69 $70.94 $70.96 $65.51 $62.90 $61.63 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apri. Month May Jun. Interest Rates Interest Rate (%) Monthly Prime Interest Rates for 2006 8.4 8.2 8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.6 8.25 7.93 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.02 7.75 7.5 7.53 7.26 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apri. May Jun. Month Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Industry Returns and Interest Rate 1 yr gain after the Fed stop raising rates Financials 24.7% Health Care 23.4% Consumer staples 17.6% S&P 500 9.9% Source: Citigroup NOTE: Based on average change in the 12 months after final rate increase, 19832000 20 01 20 .1 01 20 .2 01 20 .3 01 20 .4 02 20 .1 02 20 .2 02 20 .3 02 20 .4 03 20 .1 03 20 .2 03 20 .3 03 20 .4 04 20 .1 04 20 .2 04 20 .3 04 20 .4 05 20 .1 05 20 .2 05 20 .3 05 .4 Personal Income 5 Year Trend Date(Quarterly) Unemployment Rate Annual Arithmatic Average for Unemployment Rate 7.00 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.00 5.78 5.00 4.00 6.00 5.52 5.06 4.74 3.97 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year 2004 2005 Consumer Expenditure Average Annual Consumer Expenditure $47,000 $46,409 Consumer Expenditure $45,000 $43,395 $43,000 $41,000 $40,817 $40,677 $39,518 $39,000 $38,045 $37,000 $35,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Ye a r $3,500 8.00% $3,000 7.00% 6.00% $2,500 5.00% $2,000 4.00% $1,500 3.00% $1,000 2.00% $500 1.00% $0 0.00% 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 Ye a r $ % 2003-2004 2004-2005 % Change in Annual Expenditure $ Change in Annual Expenditure Changes in Consumer Expenditure Composition of Consumer Expenditure Composition of Consumer Expenditure for 2005 Others, 10% Food, 13% Insurance, 11% Entertainment, 5% Housing, 33% Heathcare, 6% Transportation, 18% Apparel , 4% Consumer Confidence Index: 5 Year Trend Date Sep.(p) Apr. Nov. June Jan. Aug. Mar. Oct. May Dec. July Feb. Sept. Apr. Nov. June Jan. 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Natural Disaster Hurricanes – Ex. 2005 August Hurricane Katrina Earthquake Rain – Ex. Rains increase the amount of turbidity level of tap water Target® Expect More. Pay Less. ® Company Overview • Listed on New York Stock Exchange • Part of the S&P 100, 500, and 1500 Super Comp. Russell 1000. • Market Cap: 50.01B • Stock Price 52 week range for 2006: 44.7060.34 • Shares Outstanding: 874,040,000 • Dividend Yield: 0.48 (0.80%) • Price Earning Ratios: 19.51 • EPS: 2.98 Date 10/2/2005 7/2/2005 4/2/2005 1/2/2005 10/2/2004 7/2/2004 4/2/2004 1/2/2004 10/2/2003 7/2/2003 4/2/2003 1/2/2003 10/2/2002 7/2/2002 4/2/2002 1/2/2002 10/2/2001 7/2/2001 4/2/2001 1/2/2001 Price Stock Price History 5 Year Trend 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 11/3/2006 10/3/2006 9/3/2006 8/3/2006 7/3/2006 6/3/2006 5/3/2006 4/3/2006 3/3/2006 2/3/2006 1/3/2006 Stock Price in 06 Price 65 60 55 50 45 40 Company M & A’s • From 1960-80’s – Lechmere, J.L. Hudson Company, Mervyn’s, Ayr-Way, Fed Mart, Gemco, • From 1990-00’s – Marshall Field’s, Fedco, • Most recently: – June 9, 2004 • Announced sale of Marshall Field’s Chain, and several Mervyn’s stores Company Profile • Large-format general merchandise discount stores in the United States – Target & SuperTarget stores. • Assortment of general merchandise and limited assortment of food items. – Target-general merchandise – SuperTarget-a line of food items along with general merchandise. • The credit card operation represents an integral component of its core retail business. • The company also operates Target.com, an online business. Company Profile • The company now has more than 1,440 stores in 47 states, and employs more than 300,000 employees. • Year ending 2005, Target reaches an important milestone; 50 billion dollars in sales in a single year. • Target’s Customers – – – – Median age of 41 Median household income of approx. $58k Approx. 43% have children at home About 43% have completed college Management • Robert J. Ulrich – University of Minnesota, BA, 1967 – Chairman and C.E.O for 12 years – With the company for 35 years – Held various positions – Annual compensation $10.1 million • Gregg W. Steinhafel – President for 7 years – Annual compensation $2.7 million Key Figures • • • • • Same-Store Sales Growth (“Comps”) Sales per Square Foot Inventory Turnover Gross Profit Margin Debt/Equity Ratio Same-Store Sales Growth Percent 5 Year Trend 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 5.3 5.6 2004 2005 4.4 4.1 2.2 2001 2002 2003 Date Sales per Square Foot 5 Year Trend 330 319 320 307 310 300 290 280 282 278 274 270 260 250 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Inventory Turnover 5 Year Trend 12.00 9.77 10.00 8.83 8.41 8.00 7.77 7.4 8.77 7.3 7.1 7.2 6.5 Target 6.00 Industry 4.00 2.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Gross Profit Margin 5 Year Trend Percent 33 31.9 32 31 30 29 31.2 30.2 30.6 29.4 28 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Debt/Equity Ratio 5 Year Trend 1.4 1.2 1.14 1.18 1 1 0.8 0.63 0.63 0.6 0.73 0.57 0.55 0.69 0.59 Industry 0.4 0.2 0 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 Target 2005 Driving Factors of Staple Industry • Low COGS achieved through distribution and supply chain • Image • Location • Product line Low COGS achieved through distribution and supply chain • Significant investments in supply chain and in leading-edge technologies. • Current distribution network includes 23 regional distribution centers and 3 import warehouses. – Plans to add 2 distribution centers and 3 import warehouses in the next 2 years • Derive operating efficiencies through 6Sigma@Target and outsourcing a variety of business functions. Image • Target’s store are: – Inviting and easy-to-shop, – Clean, bright, safe and accessible, and – Elaborately designed to excite their guests • Corporate Responsibility Location • Currently not pursuing international expansion, still considers potential continued growth in the U.S. • By 2010, plans to reach approx. 2000 stores. • Concentrate store growth in major metropolitan areas. Product line • Assortment of general merchandise • Exclusive brands that make Target a destination for highquality • Offers pharmaceutical products Firm Strategy • Store Growth Nationally; complemented by innovative design and support • Increase the mix of competitively priced consumables and commodities • Expand food offerings in general merchandise stores • Innovation is key to expansion and growth Store Growth Pattern • In 2006, as of Oct 28 they built 75 more Target General Merchandise stores, and 19 more SuperTarget stores, totaling 1494 stores. Recent Selling of Shares From Within In 2006: • Oct 9th Gregg W. Steinhafel (President) sells shares totaling $6.2 million. • Oct 17 & 18th Robert Ulrich Jr. (C.E.O) sells approx 700,000 shares totaling $32.1 million. • Nov 15th Douglas A. Scovanner (Executive Vice President & C.F.O.) sells shares totaling $2.7 million. Recent Selling of Shares from Outsiders • Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. owns 745,700 shares of Target, compared with 5.5 million shares in June. Recommendation BUILDING SMILES WAL-MART OVERVIEW Listed on the NYSE Part of the Dow Jones Indust. Ticker: WMT Market Cap: $200 Billion Stock Price: $47.50 Dividend yield: 1.4% Shares Outstanding: 4.17 Billion P/E ratio: 18.17 5 Yr. Wal-Mart Price WAL-MART vs. S&P Number of Shares Shares Outstanding 4,500 4,450 4,400 4,350 Number in 4,300 4,250 Millions 4,200 4,150 4,100 4,050 4,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Years 2005 2006 Company Overview Largest Company in the world Employs over 1.8 million associate Sales of $312 billion in 2005 176 Million Shoppers visit Wal-Mart Every week WAL-MART History Founded in 1962 in Arkansas by Sam Walton Wal-Mart went public in 1970 By the end of the 1980’s WAL-MART had over 2,200 locations. Today WAL-MART has over 6100 stores – 3856 In the USA – 2290 International stores Lee Scott Became CEO in 2000 Has been with Wal-Mart since 1978 Serves on the board of directors Compensation $5 million in cash and $5 million in stock options Degree in Business from Pittsburg university Share value has dropped 22% since he has been running the company Chairman of the board Robert Walton Chairman of the board Son of the founder Only Walton family member still on the board of directors Owns over 2 million shares in the company Walton Family still has large stake in the company WAL-MARTS STRATEGY Improve company image – Improve relationship with associates and surrounding communities – Become a leading company in sustainability – Provide a diverse variety of products at a great price Improving Company Image Pays below average wages but creates over 250,000 new jobs a year Low cost health care coverage of $3 per month Created an employment advisory council to improve standards for minority groups Created job & opportunity zones where the company provides local business with additional training WAL-MART staying ahead of the curve To Be Supplied 100% By Renewable Energy To Create Zero Waste To Sell Products That Sustain Our Resources & Environment Product Line Mainly a general merchandise chain – Including electronics, clothing, auto parts, food, gift cards, financial services, pharmaceutical products Moving into food products within North America – Through SuperCenters and Neighborhood Markets WAL-MART’S growth Strategy Continue to diversify the product line offered at domestic locations Wal-Mart’s Divisions Discount centers – Sales general merchandise and food products Sam’s Club – A business to business operation International operations – Focuses is on South America and Asia WAL-MART Domestic Market Four Major Store types 1. Discount stores -1,209 – Sq. ft. 102,000 2. Supercenters – 1980 – Sq. ft. 187,000 3. Sam’s Club – 567 – 4. Sq. ft. 129,000 Neighborhood Markets – 100 sq. ft. 42,000 SALES BREAKDOWN 2006 Net Sales 2005 2004 Percen t of total Percent Increase Net Sales Percent of total Percent Increase Net Sales $174,220 68% Percent of total Wal-Mart Stores $ 209,910 67% 9% $191,826 67% 10% Sam's Club 39,798 13% 7% 37,119 13% 8% 34,537 14% International 62,719 20% 11% 56,277 20% 18% 47,572 19% Total $ 312,427 100% 10% $285,222 100% 11% $256,329 100% Wal-Mart’s sales Net sales Increase 25.00 % Increase 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year % Increase Same Store Sales 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Sales Per Square Feet 500 $ per sq. ft. 400 300 273 288 293 318 341 369 388 405 423 433 415 200 100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Key Ratio Inventory Turnover 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 9.6 9.2 9.0 7.4 7.3 9.7 9.6 7.1 7.2 7.3 WAL-MART Industry 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Key Ratios Debt to Equity Ratio 70% 60% 50% 40% WALMART 30% Industry 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Key Ratios P/E Ratio 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 P/E WALMART 15.00 P/E Industry 10.00 5.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 WAL-MART 2007 Expansion Plan Neighborhood stores 2% International expansion 50% Conversions 35% Discount stores 5% Sam's Club 8% WAL-MART International expansion Has had trouble – – In the process of selling off store in Germany Selling operations in Korea WAL-MART International expansion 2006 Has been very aggressive in South America & Asia – – – In 2004 Acquired Supermercados in Brazil adding another 118 stores Bought a controlling share of Sonae in Brazil adding another 139 locations Seiyu in Japan added 398 new locations New International Locations Sq. Ft. Brazil Japan other WAL-MART Domestic Locations Traditionally located in small towns and in suburban areas Now trying to move into more urban areas and creating larger stores with a greater selection of products Experimenting with food only locations WAL-MART Supply Chain Over 60,000 suppliers Shares vital information with suppliers Owns the worlds largest privately held satellite system used to track inventory and store sales Most advanced distribution centers WAL-MART Supply Chain Highlights One of America’s Largest truck Fleet Suggestion Hold for long-term slow growth Reasons: Solid fundamentals Understands what needs to be changed Planning for the future by becoming more sustainable Company Overview Listed on Nasdaq Part of the S&P 500, Russell 1000 Ticker Symbol: COST Industry: Discount Variety Store Company Overview Stock Price: $53.40 Day High: $53.62 Day Low: $52.88 52 Week High: $57.94 52 Week Low: $46 *as of November 17th, 2006 EPS: 2.30 P/E: 23.25 Market Cap: 24.99B Dividend Yield: 1% Shares Outstanding: 467.97M Stock Price History Costco Stock Price vs S&P 500 Company Overview No. 28 in Fortune 500 4th largest retailer in USA 7th largest in the world 82 fewer stores than Sam’s Club but generate $20 B more in sales Company History 1948: Sol Price opened Fed Mart 1976: Opened first store as Price Club in San Diego 1983: Founders James Sinegal and Jeffrey Brotman opened first warehouse in Seattle 1993: Costco and Price Club merged to PriceCostco 1994: Founders of Price Club left Costco 1997: Company name was changed to Costco Wholesaler James Sinegal, CEO & co-founder CEO from start of the company Earned $583,000 in salary and bonuses Business Administration graduate of San Diego State University Leads low-cost lifestyle Named one of 100 most influential people in Time Magazine James Sinegal Salary Composition 28 200 Salary Bonus Stock Gain 350 Retailing Median 333 1045 Salary Bonus Stock Gain 1335 Jeffrey Brotman co-founder & chairman Undergraduate degree in Political Science and law degree from University of Washington 3rd generation of family participating in wholesaling and retail merchandising Former director of Starbucks and Sweet Factory Costco Today Aug 2006: 451 locations in North America Several locations in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, UK Employs approximately 118,000 fulltime and part-time staff Net Sales by Category Sales Breakdown by Category 100% 80% 10 14 16 11 13 16 12 12 16 •Other 30 29 29 •Softlines 60% 40% 20% •Hardlines 30 31 31 •Sundries •Food 0% 2003 2004 Date 2005 Average P/E Ratio 5 Year Trend 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 34.9 29.5 25 24.2 23.8 21.6 23.1 20.9 20.8 17.8 Costco Industry 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Sales per square foot (Annual) Company Target $307 Nordstrom $369 Home Depot $377 Wal-Mart* $438 BJ's $445 Sam's Club* $552 Costco $918 Best Buy $941 Comparable Sales Growth 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 10% 10% 8% 6% 5% 4% 4% 7% 5% 2% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Warehouses in Operation 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year Inventory Turnover 5 Year Trend 14.00 12.47 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.5 11.50 7.4 11.40 7.3 11.90 7.1 12 7.2 6.00 Costco Industry 4.00 2.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Dividend Yield Per Share 5 Year Trend $0.60 $0.50 $0.39 $0.40 $0.29 $0.25 $0.24 $0.30 $0.49 $0.43 Costco $0.20 Industry $0.20 $0.10 $- $- $- $2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Debt to Equity Ratio 5 Year Trend 0.70 0.63 0.63 0.57 0.60 0.55 0.59 0.50 0.40 0.30 Costco 0.22 0.23 0.20 0.20 Industry 0.17 0.09 0.10 0.00 2001 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Gross Profit Margin 5 Year Trend 30 25 23.6 23.9 24.8 24.6 24.6 20 15 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.4 Industry 10 5 0 2001 Costco 2002 2003 Date 2004 2005 Driving factors 1) Low cost of goods achieved through distribution and supply chain 2) Image 3) Location 4) Product line Low cost of goods achieved through distribution and supply chain Volume purchasing Purchasing directly from manufacturers Pre-paying vendors to receive payment discounts Minimizing stocking fees Location No elaborate facilities and rent is lower since it is not in a prime location No lights on most days to save electricity. Image Known as the big box retailer that treats employees well Return policy – No deadlines Product line Limiting products to fast selling models, sizes and colours – Carry only 4000 items Rapid inventory turnover No-name products can be marked by more than 14%; private items 15% Employment Average pay is $17 per hour – 42% higher than rivals – 3rd lowest turnover rate in retail industry 92% of health care costs covered Low Shrinkage (under 0.20% for 2005) Entrances and Exits are controlled Membership format limits theft Good relations among employees limits internal theft Cost Minimizing Strategy Minimal advertising expenses • Reduces costs by 2% per year • Limited to advertising new warehouse openings • direct mail marketing to prospective new members • direct marketing programs to existing members promoting selected merchandise Cost Minimizing Strategy No Frills – No signs saying what's in what aisle. – No bags. – No Visas or MasterCards are accepted (avoiding service charges) Plans for the Future Opening 25-30 more stores across the USA in fiscal 2006 Opening 7 more stores in England and Mexico Expanding to several hundred more Kirkland Signature items in the next 5 years to include diapers, cosmetics, etc. Open Costco Home stores Current News Glass Ceiling for Women? – Suit filed in 2004 claims discrimination against women – Company discourages women from applying for mgmt positions and are not considered for promotion – Nov 15, 2006: class action suit filed to represent 700 women. Recommendation Hold large amounts of cash on hand Paying off a large portion of debt Dividends being paid out Shares being repurchased