IAOS/SCORUS
Conference
Shanghai 2008
Application of Statistics on
Cross-boundary Transport
Planning in Hong Kong
Sorais Lee,
Planning Department, Hong Kong
Application of Statistics on Crossboundary Transport Planning in
Hong Kong
• Ties between Hong Kong and the
Mainland
• Administrative information
• Cross-boundary Travel Surveys
• The Projection Model
• Other sources of information
Major Control Points in Hong Kong
Lo Wu Terminus
Lok Ma Chau Spur
Line Control Point
Man Kam To
Control Point
Lok Ma Chau
Control Point
Sha Tau Kok
Control Point
Shenzhen Bay
Control Point
Tuen Mun
Ferry
Terminal
Hong Kong
International
Airport
Hung Hom Station
China Ferry
Terminal
Macau Ferry
Terminal
N
Close Ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland
Average Daily No. of Cross-boundary Passenger Trips ('000)
600
491
500
448
401
400
300
Daily average
for the whole
year based on
administrative
records
140%
205
Daily average
for the twoweek survey
period based on
results of the
Cross-boundary
Travel Surveys
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Daily Passenger Trips by Land Control Point
No. of trips
( x 1000)
300
250
Lo Wu
200
Lok Ma Chau
Man Kam To
150
Sha Tau Kok
Lo Ma Chau Spur Line
100
Shenzhen Bay
50
19
91
19
92
19
9
19 3
9
19 4
9
19 5
96
19
97
19
98
19
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
07
0
Lo Wu has major share. LMC increases fast
Average Daily Trips by Passenger Type
No. of trips
( x 1000)
(during the two-week period in Nov/Dec)
Average
annual
growth rate
400
03-06 06-07
3%
6%
People Living in
HK
300
HK Residents
Living in the
Mainland
200
Visitors from
the Mainland
100
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
19%
2%
18%
29%
23%
1%
People Living in
Other Places
Trip Rate of Usual Residents by Sex
Number of Daily trips
per 1000 Usual Residents
120
Male 1999
100
80
Female 1999
60
40
20
0
0-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
Age Group
45-54
55-64
65+
Trip Rate of Usual Residents by Sex
Number of Daily trips
per 1000 Usual Residents
120
Male 1999
100
80
Male 2007
60
Female 1999
40
Female 2007
20
0
0-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
Age Group
45-54
55-64
65+
Daily Vehicle Trips by Control Point
(figures for the whole year and based on administrative records)
No. of trips
50000
41757
40000
60%
All
30989
Lok Ma Chau
30000
26050
Man Kam To
20000
10000
15694
8429
Sha Tau Kok
6901
1927
0
Shenzhen Bay
Port
3103
2297
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Daily Vehicle Trips by Vehicle Type
(figures for the whole year and based on administrative records)
No. of trips
50000
Average
annual growth
rate
97-04 04-07
6%
40000
2%
All
Goods
Vehicle
Container
Truck
Private Car
30000
20000
Coach
10000
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2%
23%
3%
0%
15%
- 5%
23%
33%
- 4%
7%
Shuttle Bus
Private Car Quota and Trip Rate
(figures for the whole year and based on administrative records)
20 000
1.6
18 000
1.4
No.of private car quota approved
16 000
Quota Approved
(left scale)
14 000
1.2
1.0
12 000
10 000
0.8
8 000
Trip Rate
(right scale)
6 000
0.6
0.4
0.47 trip per day
per quota
4 000
2 000
0.73 trip per day
per quota
0.2
0
1998
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources of Data
• Administrative data from
government departments
Census and Statistics Department
Immigration Department
Customs and Excise Department
Marine Department
Civil Aviation Department
Sources of Data
• Administrative data from
government departments
Passenger Flows by Control Point by Direction
Vehicle Flows by Control Point by Direction
Passenger Movement Records
Vehicle Movement Records
No information on
Purpose of trip
Destination / origin
Mode of transport
Cross-boundary Travel Surveys
• Surveys in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2007
(supplementary vehicle survey in 2004)
• 2 weeks survey period in Nov/Dec
• Method – randomly select passengers and
drivers and intercept them to conduct face-toface interview
• Covers passenger and vehicle trips
• Covers all major control points – land, sea, air
4-Stage Transport Model
Population and Employment Forecasts
8 series of
Trip Generation passenger trips by
type by purpose
Trip Distribution
Iteration
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
OD flow
volumes
Share among
transport
modes
Route selection
process
Link and O-D Flows, Times, Costs, etc
Transportation
Network and
Service Attributes
Cross-boundary Transport Model Structure
Planning Data
Hong Kong Domestic Transport Model
Local Loaded Networks
Public Transport Networks
Highways Networks
Freight Model
Guangdong Loaded Networks
Private Vehicle Model
Public
Transport
Model
Total Public Transport Demand
Highways
Model
Modal Split
Goods Vehicle
and Container
Vehicle Demand
Matrices
Private Vehicle
Demand Matrix
Through Train, Boundary Train,
Bus, Ferry Person Matrices
Highway Loading by Crossing Point
Public Transport Loading
Highway Loaded Network
Bus Vehicle Flows
Cost
Elasticity
Model
Overview of sources of information
Historical data
•Administrative statistics
•Administrative movement records
Planning data
•Transport-related information
•Mainland-related information
•Planning and development
information
•Government policies
•Joint study with three
neighbouring cities (Shenzhen,
Macao, Zhuhai) of Hong Kong
Statistical surveys
•Cross-boundary Travel Surveys
•Survey on Propensity to Use
Private Cars to Cross the Boundary,
2005
•Thematic household surveys on
Hong Kong people’s experience of
and aspirations for taking up
residence in the Mainland
•Survey on Hong Kong people
living in Shenzhen
End