Chapter 17 Tools and Conduct of Monetary Policy The Market for Reserves and the Fed Funds Rate Demand Curve for Reserves 1. R = RR + ER 2. i opportunity cost of ER, ER 3. Demand curve slopes down Supply Curve for Reserves 1. If iff is below id, then discount borrowing, Rs = Rn 2. Supply curve flat (infinitely elastic) at id because as iff starts to go above id, banks borrow more at id Market Equilibrium Rd = Rs at i*ff Supply and Demand for Reserves Response to Open Market Operations Open Market Purchase Nonborrowed reserves, Rn, and shifts supply curve to right Rs2: i to i2ff Response to a Change in the Discount Rate (a) No discount lending Lower Discount Rate Horizontal to section and supply curve just shortens, iff stays same (b) Some discount lending Lower Discount Rate Horizontal section , iff to i2ff = i2d Response to Change in Required Reserves Required reserve Requirement Demand for reserves , Rs shifts right and iff to i2ff Open Market Operations 2 Types 1. Dynamic: Meant to change MB 2. Defensive: Meant to offset other factors affecting MB, typically uses repos Advantages of Open Market Operations 1. Fed has complete control 2. Flexible and precise 3. Easily reversed 4. Implemented quickly Discount Loans 3 Types 1. Primary Credit 2. Secondary Credit 3. Seasonal Credit Lender of Last Resort Function 1. To prevent banking panics FDIC fund not big enough Example: Continental Illinois 2. To prevent nonbank financial panics Examples: 1987 stock market crash and September 11 terrorist incident How Primary Credit Facility Puts Ceiling on iff Rightward shift of Rs to Rs2 moves equilibrium to point 2 where i2ff = id and discount lending rises from zero to DL2 Discount Policy Advantages 1. Lender of Last Resort Role Disadvantages 1. Confusion interpreting discount rate changes 2. Fluctuations in discount loans cause unintended fluctuations in money supply 3. Not fully controlled by Fed Reserve Requirements Advantages 1.Powerful effect Disadvantages 1.Small changes have very large effect on Ms 2.Raising causes liquidity problems for banks 3.Frequent changes cause uncertainty for banks 4.Tax on banks Goals of Monetary Policy Goals 1. High Employment 2. Economic Growth 3. Price Stability 4. Interest Rate Stability 5. Financial Market Stability 6. Foreign Exchange Market Stability Goals often in conflict Central Bank Strategy Money Supply Target 1. M d fluctuates between M d' and M d'' 2. With M-target at M*, i fluctuates between i' and i'' Interest Rate Target 1. M d fluctuates between M d' and M d'' 2. To set i-target at i* Ms fluctuates between M' and M'' Criteria for Choosing Targets Criteria for Intermediate Targets 1. Measurability 2. Controllability 3. Ability to predictably affect goals Interest rates aren’t clearly better than Ms on criteria 1 and 2 because hard to measure and control real interest rates Criteria for Operating Targets Same criteria as above Reserve aggregates and interest rates about equal on criteria 1 and 2. For 3, if intermediate target is Ms, then reserve aggregate is better History of Fed Policy Procedures Early Years: Discounting as Primary Tool 1. Real bills doctrine 2. Rise in discount rates in 1920: recession 1920–21 Discovery of Open Market Operations 1. Made discovery when purchased bonds to get income in 1920s Great Depression 1. Failure to prevent bank failures s 2. Result: sharp drop in M Reserve Requirements as Tool 1. Banking Act of 1935 2. Required reserves in 1936, 1937 to reduce “idle” reserves: s Result: M and severe recession in 1937–38 Pegging of Interest Rates: 1942-51 1. To help finance war, T-bill at 3/8%, T-bond at 2 1/2% 2. Fed-Treasury Accord in March 1951 Money Market Conditions: 1950s and 60s 1. Interest Rates A. Procyclical M Y i MB M e i MB M Targeting Monetary Aggregates: 1970s 1. Fed funds rate as operating target with narrow band 2. Procyclical M New Operating Procedures: 1979–82 1. Deemphasis on fed funds rate 2. Nonborrowed reserves operating target 3. Fed still using interest rates to affect economy and inflation Deemphasis of Monetary Aggregates: 1982–Early 1990s 1. Borrowed reserves (DL) operating target A. Procyclical M Y i DL MB M Fed Funds Targeting Again: Early 1990s to the present 1. Fed funds target now announced International Considerations 1. M in 1985 to lower exchange rate, M in 1987 to raise it 2. International policy coordination Taylor Rule, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve Taylor Rule Fed funds rate target = inflation rate + equilibrium real fed funds rate + 1/2 (inflation gap) + 1/2 (output gap) Phillips Curve Theory Change in inflation influenced by output relative to potential, and other factors When unemployment rate < NAIRU, inflation rises NAIRU thought to be 6%, but inflation falls with unemployment rate below 5% Phillips curve theory highly controversial Taylor Rule and Fed Funds Rate