2 Analyzing the External Environment of the Firm McGraw-Hill/Irwin Strategic Management: Text and Cases, 4e Copyright © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2- 3 Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should have a good understanding of: - - The importance of developing forecasts of the business environment. Why environmental scanning, environmental monitoring, and collecting competitive intelligence are critical inputs to forecasting. Why scenario planning is a useful technique for firms competing in industries characterized by unpredictability and change. The impact of the general environment on a firm’s strategies and performance. 2- 4 Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you should have a good understanding of: - - - - How forces in the competitive environment can affect profitability and how a firm can improve its competitive position by increasing its power vis-à-vis these forces. How trends and events in the general environment and forces in the competitive environment are interrelated and affect performance. How the internet and digitally based compatibilities are affecting the five competitive forces and industry profitability. The concept of strategic groups and their strategy and performance implications. 2- 5 Purpose of External Environmental Analysis • Organizations are affected by conditions in the environment • Managers need to be aware of these conditions in order to - Take advantage of opportunities that can lead to higher profits - Reduce the impact of threats that can harm the organization’s future 2- 6 Creating the Environmentally Aware Organization Managers need information in order to know and develop an understanding about what is happening in the external environment 2- 7 Environmental Scanning & Monitoring • External Scanning - Surveillance of a firm’s external environment: • Predict environmental changes to come • Detect changes already under way • Proactive mode • External Monitoring - Track evolution of: • Environmental trends • Sequence of events • Streams of activities 2- 8 Competitive Intelligence • Define and understand a firm’s industry • Identify rivals’ strengths and weaknesses - Intelligence gathering (data) - Interpretation of intelligence data • Helps a firm avoid surprises 2- 9 What Competitive Intelligence Is and Is Not Competitive Intelligence Is … 1. Information that has been analyzed to the point where you can make a decision. 2. A tool to alert management to early recognition of both threats and opportunities. 3. A means to deliver reasonable assessments. 4. A way of life, a process. Competitive Intelligence Is Not … 1. Spying. Spying implies illegal or unethical activities. It is a rare activity. 2. A crystal ball. Competitive Intelligence is good approximation of reality; it does not predict the future. 3. Database search. Data by itself is not good intelligence. 4. A job for one smart person. Adapted from Exhibit 2.2 What Competitive Intelligence Is and Is Not! 2- 10 Environmental Forecasting • Plausible projections about - Direction of environmental change Scope of environmental change Speed of environmental change Intensity of environmental change • Scenario analysis 2- 11 Question Which of the following is a danger of forecasting? a) Managers assume that the world is not open to precise predictions. b) Managers may view uncertainty as black and white and ignore grey areas. c) Managers assume that the world is uncertain. d) Managers view the world as completely unpredictable. 2- 12 SWOT Analysis • Managers need to analyze - The general environment - The firm’s industry and competitive advantage • SWOT analysis - Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Basic technique for analyzing firm and industry condition 2- 13 Example • Harley Davidson SWOT - Strengths • Strong & adaptable brand image - Weaknesses • Limited ability to develop new non-traditional products - Opportunities • Growing leisure interest in motorcycles worldwide - Threats • Differing foreign policies governing motorcycles Source: Developed from www.harley-davidson.com 2- 14 The General and Competitive Environment General Environment Demographics Competitive Global Political/Legal Environment Threat on new entrants Bargaining power of suppliers Bargaining power of buyers Threat of substitute products Sociocultural Competitive rivalry Macoreconomic Technological 2- 15 The General Environment • Segments of the general environment include: - Demographic Sociocultural Legal/Political Technological Economic Global • General environmental trends and events: - Little ability to predict them - Even less ability to control them - Can vary across industries General Environment 2- 16 Demographic Segment • Aging population • Rising affluence • Changes in ethnic composition • Geographic distribution of population • Greater disparities in income levels 2- 17 Sociocultural Segment • More women in the workforce • Increase in temporary workers • Greater concern for fitness • Greater concern for environment • Postponement of family formation 2- 18 Political/Legal Segment • Tort reform • Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) • Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 • Deregulation of utility and other industries • Increases in federally mandated minimum wages • Taxation at local, state, federal levels • Legislation on corporate governance reforms (Sarbanes-Oxley Act) 2- 19 Technological Segment • Genetic engineering • Emergence of Internet technology • Computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing systems (CAD/CAM) • Research in synthetic and exotic materials • Pollution/global warming • Miniaturization of computing technologies • Wireless communication • Nanotechnology 2- 20 Economic Segment • Interest rates • Unemployment • Consumer Price index • Trends in GDP • Changes in stock market valuations • Financial industry reform 2- 21 Global Segment • Increasing global trade • Currency exchange rates • Emergence of the Indian and Chinese economies • Trade agreements among regional blocs (NAFTA, EU, ASEAN) • Creation of WTO (decreasing tariffs/free trade in services) 2- 22 The Competitive Environment • Segments of the competitive environment include: - Competitors - Customers - Suppliers • Sometimes called the task or industry environment • Porter’s five forces model Competitive Environment 2- 23 Competitive Environment • The essence of strategy formulation is coping with competition. • The corporate strategists’ goal is to find a position in the industry where his or her company can best defend itself against these forces or can influence them in its favor. • Managers must understand the conditions of competition within their industry - Porter Five-Forces Model of Competition (determining the attractiveness of an industry) - Strategic Groups - Key Success Factors - Competitive Changes During industry Evolution - National Competitive Advantage (Chapter 7) 2- 24 Porter’s Five Forces Model of Industry Competition 2- 25 Example • Porter’s Five Forces Model: BMW - Threat of new entrants • Very low - Threat of substitutes • Medium - Power of suppliers • Medium - Power of buyers • Medium - Rivalry among existing firms • Very High Source: Developed from www.bmw.com 2- 26 The Threat of New Entrants • Fundamental question: how easy is it for another company to enter the industry? • Profits of established firms in the industry may be eroded by new competitors • High entry barriers lead to low threat of new entries - Economies of scale - Product differentiation - Capital requirements - Switching costs - Access to distribution channels - Cost disadvantages independent of scale 2- 27 Question If you are considering opening a new café in your community, what would be the threat of new entrants? How would you evaluate Porter’s other forces for this industry? Explain. 2- 28 The Bargaining Power of Buyers Fundamental questions: How badly does a buyer need your products or services? Buyers threaten an industry - Force down prices - Bargain for higher quality or more services - Play competitors against each other 2- 29 The Bargaining Power of Buyers • A buyer group is powerful when - It is concentrated or purchases large volumes relative to seller sales - The products it purchases from the industry are standard or undifferentiated - The buyer faces few switching costs - It earns low profits - The buyers pose a credible threat of backward integration - The industry’s product is unimportant to the quality of the buyer’s products or services 2- 30 The Bargaining Power of Suppliers Fundamental question: how badly does a supplier need your business? • Suppliers can exert power by threatening to raise prices or reduce the quality of purchased goods and services • A supplier group will be powerful when - The supplier group is dominated by a few companies and is more concentrated than the industry it sells to - The supplier group is not obliged to contend with substitute products for sale to the industry - The industry is not an important customer of the supplier group 2- 31 The Bargaining Power of Suppliers • A supplier group will be powerful when (cont.) - The supplier’s product is an important input to the buyer’s business - The supplier group’s products are differentiated or it has built up switching costs for the buyer - The supplier group poses a credible threat of forward integration 2- 32 The Threat of Substitute Products and Services Fundamental question: what other products or services could perform the same function as your products or services? • Substitutes limit the potential returns of an industry - Ceiling on the prices that firms in that industry can profitably charge - Price/performance ratio 2- 33 The Intensity of Rivalry among Competitors in an Industry Fundamental question: how intense is competition in the industry? • • • • • • Jockeying for position Price competition Advertising battles Product introductions Increased customer service or warranties Interacting factors lead to intense rivalry - Numerous or equally balanced competitors - Slow industry growth - High fixed or shortage costs - Lack of differentiation or switching costs - Capacity augmented in large increments - High exit barriers 2- 34 How the Internet and Digital Technologies Influences Industry 2- 35 The Value Net 2- 36 A Sixth Force: Complementors • Not a supplier • Offers service or product that affects industry’s performance • When complementors are important and their number is increasing - Demand and profits in the industry are boosted • When complementors are weak - Industry growth can slow and profits can be limited • Example: Internet Service Providers “complementors” to eBusiness firms 2- 37 Using Industry Analyses: A Few Caveats • Five Forces analysis implicitly assumes a zerosum game • Five Forces analysis is essentially a static analysis - Value net • Suppliers and customers (the vertical net) • Substitutes and complements (the horizontal net) 2- 38 Strategic Implications of the Five Competitive Forces • Competitive environment is unattractive from the standpoint of earning good profits when: – Rivalry is strong – Entry barriers are low and entry is likely – Competition from substitutes is strong – Suppliers and customers have considerable bargaining power 2- 39 Strategic Implications of the Five Competitive Forces • Competitive environment is ideal from a profit-making standpoint when: – Rivalry is moderate – Entry barriers are high and no firm is likely to enter – Good substitutes do not exist – Suppliers and customers are in a weak bargaining position 2- 40 Strategic Groups within Industries • Two unassailable assumptions in industry analysis - No two firms are totally different - No two firms are exactly the same • Strategic groups • Cluster of firms that share similar strategies - Breadth of product and geographic scope Price/quality Degree of vertical integration Type of distribution system 2- 41 Strategic Groups within Industries • Value of strategic groups as an analytical tool - Identify barriers to mobility that protect a group from attacks by other groups - Identify groups whose competitive position may be marginal or tenuous - Chart the future direction of firms’ strategies - Thinking through the implications of each industry trend for the strategic group as a whole 2- 42 Strategic Groups • Companies do not compete against all companies in an industry • Companies compete against several other companies that follow similar strategies • A strategic group consists of those rivals with similar competitive approaches in an industry • Examples ways of competing: - Price -- Range of products - Innovation -- Customers served - Research - Quality 2- 43 Procedure for Constructing a Strategic Group Map STEP 1: Identify competitive characteristics that differentiate firms in an industry from one another STEP 2: Plot firms on a two-variable map using pairs of these differentiating characteristics STEP 3: Assign firms that fall in about the same strategy space to same strategic group STEP 4: Draw circles around each group, making circles proportional to size of group’s respective share of total industry sales 2- 44 Types of Video Game Suppliers/Distribution Channels Example: Strategic Group Map of the Video Game Industry Arcades Arcade operators Publishers of games on CD-ROMs Home PCs Sony, Sega, Nintendo, several others Video game consoles MSN Gaming Zone, Pogo.com, America Online, HEAT, Engage, Oceanline, TEN Online/Internet Low (Coin-operated equipment) Medium (Console players cost $100-$300) High (Use PC) Overall Cost to Players of Video Games 2- 45 Key Success Factors • In many industries, there are certain actions or practices that a business must follow in order to compete in the industry. • May need effort to distinguish company from competitors • AN INDIVIDUAL COMPANY DOES NOT HAVE KEY SUCCESS FACTORS!!!! • KEY SUCCESS FACTORS ARE NOT THE SOURCE OF A COMPANY’S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE – THEY ARE REQUIREMENTS FOR COMPETING IN AN INDUSTRY AND DO NOT GIVE ANY FIRM A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 2- 46 Examples of Key Success Factors in Selected Industries • • • • Pharmaceuticals: research and personal selling Beer: advertising and distribution Restaurant: quality food, service, location, notoriety Retailer: location and priced-for-quality 2- 47 Changes in Competition During Industry’s Evolution • Over time as an industry evolves, the nature and basis of competition changes • Managers must anticipate how the forces will change as the industry evolves and formulate appropriate strategies • Five Stages ( similar to product-life cycle) - Embryonic—introduction of product - Growth - Shakeout - Mature - Declining 2- 48 Stages in the Industry Life Cycle 2- 49 Shakeout: Growth in Demand and Capacity 2- 50 Requirements in Each Stage of Industry’s Evolution • Embryonic: Know-how, educating customers, opening distribution channels • Growth: Know-how for continued innovation, financing, build demand • Shakeout: Dominant market position, low cost producer, high capacity • Maturity: low cost production, brand loyalty • Declining: lowest cost production, reduce capacity 2- 51 Limitations of Models for Industry Analysis • Life cycle issues - The embryonic stage can sometimes be skipped - Industry growth can be revitalized - The time span of the stages can vary • Innovation and change - Innovation can unfreeze and reshape industry structure - An industry may be hypercompetitive, with permanent and ongoing change 2- 52 Limitations of Models for Industry Analysis (cont’d) • Company differences - The importance of company differences within an industry or strategic group can be underemphasized - The individual resources and capabilities of a company may be more important in determining profitability than the industry or strategic group