Setting Context, Assessing
Trends, Forecasting the Future
Presentation for Visioning Day October 30th, 2009
Office Of Institutional Research and Planning
Setting Context, Assessing
Trends, Forecasting the Future
For
Planning purposes data can help you
do three things
Set
goals by identifying trends, problems,
strengths, opportunities
Inform Strategies by understanding the cause
of problems or logistical considerations
Evaluate progress and make corrections
Setting Context, Assessing
Trends, Forecasting the Future
But
data is just small part.
While
data-jockeying is important it’s the
syntheses, analysis, application and
evaluation of data and information that is
at the core of what we need to do.
Setting Context, Assessing Trends,
Forecasting the Future

External:




Demographic/workforce forecasts
K-12 trends
UC/CSU trends
Public perceptions of Higher Education
Setting Context, Assessing Trends,
Forecasting the Future

Internal
Student Demographics
 Student Preparation
 Student Success and Learning

Setting Context, Assessing Trends,
Forecasting the Future

Shifting Forces







Workforce/Skills Gap
Economy (short and long term)
Funding and Legislation
Sustainability
Increased Diversity
Globalism
Changes in the Nature of Learning and the
Millennial generation
External: Demographics Population Growth
Population
2010
2019/2020
ABAG
31,600
3.7%
15.9%
120,288
156,100
8.2%
10.1%
500,671
541,400
9.8%
10.3%
13.7%
n/a
ABAG
EMSI
175,303
198,300
181,764
229,900
6,461
Alameda County
1,466,636
1,549,800
1,586,924
1,705,900
Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda,
Countra Costa, San Francisco, and
Santa Clara
5,090,282
5,272,100
5,590,953
5,813,500
37,696,392
n/a
42,854,241
State of California
EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.
ABAG: Association of Bay Area
Governments
n/a
% Change from
2010 to 2020
EMSI
EMSI
Local Area (for students): Dublin,
Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol
ABAG
Change from 2010
to 2020
EMSI
5,157,849
ABAG
n/a
External: Demographics
Projected Race/Ethnicity Demographics Over Time by Area
100%
7000
1263
80%
1347
424
60%
196619
4,535,812
29,210
8,257
43,053
1240644
1,286,206
2,239,807
371,094
7683
218677
5,130,819
32,883
7,832
47,655
1,437,510
2,299,101
8613
246828
5,783,680
36,927
7,767
1,612,525
53,500
2,374,111
17,406,928
1,213,358
Black or
African
American
Hispanic
1,367,920
40%
130,654
20%
123,057
4581
2,057,917
15,574,287
119,308
1,971,052
15,464,121
1,933,675
15,420,158
Source: EMSI data
2013
2018
State
Counties
Cities
State
Counties
Cities
State
Counties
Cities
LPC
0%
2008
Other
364,054
15,303,908
1,158,020
1587523
Asian
361,293
13,394,509
1407
1402884
White,
NonHispanic
External: Labor/Jobs Growth
Labor/Jobs
2010
EMSI
2019/2020
ABAG
EMSI
ABAG
Change from
2010 to 2020
EMSI
ABAG
% Change from
2010 to 2020
EMSI
ABAG
Local Area (for students): Dublin,
Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol
152,829
105,970
164,735
133,400
11,906
27,430
7.8%
25.9%
Alameda County
888,167
712,850
965,567
825,070
77,400
112,220
8.7%
15.7%
Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda,
Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa
Clara
3,284,29
6
2,564,570
3,654,481
2,989,790
370,185
425,220
11.3%
16.6%
State of California
20,696,4
99
n/a
23,140,653
11.8%
n/a
EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.
ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments
n/a
2,444,1
54
n/a
External: Labor
Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area:
2008 - 2018 Education: Associate Degree
5,000
4,500
4,423
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,021
1,000
879
878
476
500
402
172
170
170
152
Medical
records and
health
information
technicians
($20/hr)
Interior
designers
($22/hr)
Veterinary
technologists
and
technicians
($19/hr)
Respiratory
therapists
($36/hr)
0
Registered
nurses ($49/hr)
Computer
support
specialists
($27/hr)
Source: EMSI data
Computer
Paralegals and
specialists, all
legal
other ($39/hr)
assistants
($29/hr)
Dental
hygienists
($49/hr)
Biological
technicians
($21/hr)
External: Labor
Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area:
2008 - 2018 Education: Bachelor's Degree
8,000
7,215
6,511
7,000
6,000
5,000
3,670
4,000
2,582
3,000
2,528
2,481
2,421
2,171
1,361
2,000
1,305
1,000
0
Property, real
estate, and
community
association
managers
($11/hr)
Computer
software
engineers,
applications
($48/hr)
Source: EMSI data
Computer Network systems Computer
Business
Accountants and Personal financial Network and
Elementary
software
and data
systems
operation
auditors ($29/hr) advisors ($30/hr)
computer
school teachers,
engineers,
communications analysts ($39/hr) specialists, all
systems
except special
systems software analysts ($36/hr)
other ($34/hr)
administrators
education
($51/hr)
($41/hr)
($38/hr)
External: k-12 trends





College Going rates
 Statewide it’s decreasing-locally it’s
higher
Increased Gap between haves and have
nots (achievement Gap)
Exit exam
Increased ESL population
Math:
 Algebra in 8th grade
External: k-12 trends

Concerns over Curriculum gap
between high school and College


Cal-Pass research shows students often
repeat course in college they already
took in high school
This may partly explain why it seems
that so many high school graduates are
unprepared for college level work.
External: k-12
College Going Rates Las Positas High School
Districts
No Public
College
33%
UC
10%
CSU
17%
CCC
40%
Source: California Department of Education
External: k-12
Source of First-Time Freshman to Las Positas College
Other California
High Schools,
24%
Other Bay Area
High Schools,
6%
Out of State High
Schools, 4%
High Schools in
Other Countries,
5%
Other Alameda
County High
Schools, 3%
High Schools in
Chabot District,
8%
Source: CLPCCD Institutional Data Base
High Schools in
LPC District,
50%
Internal: Local High Schools
HS Grad Year
LPC
Semester
Number of
Grads*
Number New
Enrollments at
LPC Grad year
the previous
Spring**
% of grads
who attended
LPC the Fall
after HS
Graduation
Number of New
Enrollments at
LPC of any Grad
Year**
% of New
LPC Students
who
graduated HS
any year
Number of All
New Students
to LPC**
1996-1997
Fall 1997
1658
356
21%
494
44%
1112
1997-1998
Fall 1998
1714
391
23%
512
45%
1126
1998-1999
Fall 1999
1869
446
24%
551
49%
1131
1999-2000
Fall 2000
1804
576
32%
709
51%
1403
2000-2001
Fall 2001
1912
588
31%
707
51%
1385
2001-2002
Fall 2002
2048
655
32%
779
54%
1456
2002-2003
Fall 2003
1916
646
34%
785
53%
1470
2003-2004
Fall 2004
2200
698
32%
834
55%
1516
2004-2005
Fall 2005
2293
684
30%
811
52%
1556
2005-2006
Fall 2006
2380
645
27%
907
50%
1606
2006-2007
Fall 2007
2517
767
30%
911
51%
1769
2007-2008
Fall 2008
2637
763
29%
926
52%
1767
External: UC/CSU

Less capacity/budget cuts

More competition

Higher fees
External: Public Perception (Clarus Report)

Market Assessment Report (March 2007)




The name and existence of LPC is well known
55% of LPC service area would consider
attending LPC
Considered convenient and affordable
Generally well regarded but public lack specific
knowledge
External: Public Perception (Campus
Commons Report)

Public



Feel a college education is necessary and fear
that increasing costs make college out of reach
Support of high education is contingent on
maintaining access
Growing sense that colleges are inefficient and
can educate more students without needing more
money
External: Summary

Demographic


Continued growth and increased diversity
Workforce
Increase in jobs outpace growth in population
 Healthcare, technology, business/finance
 Must anticipate areas of growth and be nimble
enough to quickly respond to needs

External: Summary


K-12 trends
 We draw students for all over…not just our local high
schools
 Almost half of local high school graduates attend LPC
 Must understand and respond to trends such as
achievement gap, differences curriculum and student
preparation
Public Perceptions of Higher Education/LPC
 In general, growing sense that colleges are inefficient
and can educate more students without needing more
money.
 LPC is generally well regarded but public lack specific
knowledge LPC
Internal: Demographics
30000
LPC Headcounts and Enrollments Fall 1999-Fall 2009
27,360
29,235
25,418
25000
23,182
22,376
20000
18,287
19,127
20,710 20,951 20,847
20,223
15000
Headcount
Enrollments
10000
5000
6951
7413
7857
8588
7395
7325
7332
7796
8451
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
9100
9517
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
0
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
Internal: Demographics
LPC Number of Units Fall 1999-Fall 2009
100%
90%
47%
48%
47%
46%
39%
38%
36%
36%
35%
34%
32%
80%
70%
60%
27%
26%
26%
26%
29%
28%
29%
27%
28%
29%
29%
up to50%
5.5 Units
5.6-11.9
40% Units
12 or
more
30%
Units
26%
27%
27%
29%
31%
34%
34%
37%
32%
36%
38%
20%
10%
0%
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
Internal: Demographics
LPC Age Distribution Fall 1999- Fall 2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
12%
12%
12%
13%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
12%
12%
12%
12%
11%
11%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
12%
11%
11%
10%
11%
10%
14%
9%
10%
10%
9%
11%
9%
28%
29%
28%
31%
16%
16%
16%
60%
10%
10%
50%
40%
23%
24%
10%
23%
14%
9%
9%
50 or older
40-49
24%
27%
28%
27%
30-39
30%
25-29
20%
20-24
10%
27%
27%
26%
28%
28%
30%
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
31%
31%
32%
31%
31%
19 or
younger
0%
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
Internal: Demographics
LPC Student Type Fall 1999-Fall 2009
100%
90%
80%
3%
11%
13%
4%
6%
21%
5%
5%
21%
5%
5%
1%
4%
4%
4%
1%
2%
1%
2%
2%
1%
19%
22%
22%
22%
21%
21%
20%
21%
70%
60%
50%
40%
56%
53%
54%
55%
56%
56%
57%
56%
52%
51%
52%
16%
18%
17%
17%
19%
21%
21%
20%
21%
20%
21%
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
30%
20%
10%
0%
Enrolled in
K-12
Returning
Student
Transfer-In
Students
Continuing
Student
New
Student
Internal: Demographics
LPC Educational Goal Fall 1999-Fall 2009
100%
90%
24%
23%
23%
24%
22%
21%
9%
8%
22%
21%
21%
9%
8%
8%
80%
70%
9%
60%
17%
50%
10%
40%
10%
9%
17%
9%
10%
10%
18%
9%
10%
11%
19%
18%
6%
6%
Goal undecided
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
8%
8%
16%
9%
10%
11%
12%
9%
9%
10%
12%
13%
16%
7%
7%
14%
13%
30%
32%
30%
30%
job related goal
12%
Two year assoc
without transfr
30%
20%
Intellectual/cultur
al dev.
34%
34%
33%
35%
36%
39%
40%
10%
BA without
completing AA
BA after
completing AA
0%
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
Internal: Demographics
LPC Race/Ethnicity Fall 1999-Fall 2009
100%
90%
3%
6%
3%
7%
3%
8%
3%
8%
3%
8%
3%
9%
4%
9%
3%
10%
3%
11%
4%
11%
4%
11%
11%
12%
12%
12%
13%
13%
14%
15%
16%
16%
17%
80%
70%
60%
African
American
50%
Asian
70%
40%
68%
66%
66%
64%
62%
59%
56%
54%
52%
53%
Hispanic
30%
White
20%
10%
10%
10%
11%
11%
12%
13%
14%
16%
16%
17%
15%
Fall
1999
Fall
2000
Fall
2001
Fall
2002
Fall
2003
Fall
2004
Fall
2005
Fall
2006
Fall
2007
Fall
2008
Fall
2009
0%
Other
unknown
Internal: Demographics



Growth in enrollment
Traditional college students (fulltime, young, goal to transfer, never
attended college)
Increasing racial/ethnic diversity
(Asian and Hispanic populations)
Internal: Student Preparation
Las Positas English Assessment Trends
Fall 1998-Fall 2008
College Level: Engl 1A
1 Below: Engl 101A/104
Pct. Assessing into
Each Level
2 Below: Engl 116-Learning Skills
3 Below: Take ESL Test
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Internal: Student Preparation
Las Positas Math Assessment Trends
Fall 1998-Fall 2008
College Level: Trig or above
1 Below: Math 55/55A Int. Alg.
2 Below: Math 65/65A Elem. Alg.
3 Below: Math 107 Basic Skills
% Assessing into Each Level
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Internal: Student Preparation


Increase in number and proportion of
students who require basic skills
courses in English and Math (and study
skills)
Simultaneous increase in students who
have high education goals and expect
academic rigor in preparation for
transfer
Internal: Success and Leaning -Transfers
Top Six Four-Year Colleges and Universities Transfers
180
160
140
UC Berkeley
UC Davis
120
CSU East Bay
CSU Sacramento
100
San Francisco State
San Jose State
80
60
40
20
0
19981999
19992000
20002001
20012002
20022003
20032004
20042005
20052006
20062007
20072008
Internal: Success and Learning-Income
Increase in Personal Income After Graduating from a CCC in 2000-01
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1998
1999
2000
CA Median Household Income
Source: ARCC Report www.cccco.edu
2001
2002
CA Per Capita Income
2003
2004
CCC Median Income
Internal: Student Success and Learning

Core Competencies





Communication
Critical Thinking
Creativity and Aesthetics
Respect and Responsibility
Technology
Measured in a number of ways including inclass assessments and Student Self reports
Internal: Student Success and Learning
Greatest Self-Reported Gains
Mean
Skills I can use in my current or future career
3.89
Discovering my own potential
3.84
Developing clear career goals
3.83
Writing Skills
3.79
Gathering information from multiple sources
3.79
Ability to learn on my own, pursue ideas and find info.
3.79
Performing to the best of my abilities
3.78
Understanding myself- abilities, interests, limitations
3.78
Critical thinking
3.75
Listening effectively
3.72
Applying knowledge to new situations to solve problems
3.72
Ability to set goals and develop strategies to reach them
3.72
1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger
Internal: Student Success and Learning
Lowest Self-Reported Gains
Mean
Awareness of my civic or community responsibilities
3.48
Appreciation for the arts and the role art plays in society
3.49
Using numerical data
3.49
Appreciation of my role in a democratic society
3.52
Overall technological literacy
3.54
Desire to contribute to my community/society
3.55
Ability to use computers effectively
3.56
Ability to meet challenges of a rapidly-changing society
3.58
Ability to read, interpret, and generate charts/graphs
3.59
Reading skills
3.59
Mathematical skills and abilities
3.60
1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger
Internal: Summary

Student Demographics


LPC has a large proportion of “traditional”
students (young, transfer directed, full-time)
Student Preparation


High school students expect high quality
education for transfer and workforce training
But also need remedial academic and leaning
skills support
Internal: Summary

Student Success and Learning



Graduating from a CCC greatly increases
earnings.
Student report greatest gains is a broad mix of
outcomes that range from academic to
affective
As with highest gains, lowest gain is a broad
mix of academic and affective outcomes. Many
of the outcomes concerned with civic
engagement and societal contribution are
areas in which students report fewer gains.
Shifting Forces: Workforce Gap



Gap of workers qualified and
experienced to replace baby boomers
Over supply of workers for the
number of low skilled jobs
Both a demographic and educational
trend
Shifting Forces: Economy- Short Term
o
Slow recovery
o
Lag in creation of jobs (Latest UCLA
Anderson Forecast predicts doubledigit unemployment until end of 2011)
Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

Recovery vs. Reset



Breaking the law: Okun’s law
Growth alone wont save us because the
“lost” jobs are not coming back
Long term and profound changes in

Home ownership, consumer spending/saving,
availability of credit, investment, business
start-ups (which are the first source of new
jobs)
Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

Recovery vs. Reset

Different types of jobs/skills
 Longer term training for higher skills jobs
 Need to shift away from quick in and out training
programs
 Not so much a “labor” gap; more of a skills gap
Shifting Forces: Funding/Legislation


Decreased funding*
Unreliable funding unless major changes
to constitution




Term limits
2/3 budget
Redistricting
Unfunded mandates
Shifting Forces: Increased Accountability

WASC (Western Association of Schools and Colleges)

ARCC (Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges)


Increased public scrutiny/sophistication and
questioning
Less focus on process and more focus on outcomes
and results
Shifting Forces: Sustainability
•Three Bottom Lines
Environment
Economy
Equity /
Community
Shifting Forces: Sustainability
Practices/
Operations
-drinking
fountains
-recycling
-building
design
-solar
electric
Education
-certificates
-degrees
-transfer
programs
-Infuse
sustainable
ideas into
curriculum
Processes/
Human
Resources
-sustainable
processes
-hiring the
proper number
of support staff
-Prioritizing
initiatives
Shifting Forces: Increased Diversity
oGetting Beyond “Quotas” thinking
oGetting beyond “meeting the needs of
diverse populations”
oTransforming who we are and what we do
oEssential workplace/life skill for ourselves
and our students
Shifting Forces: Globalism




Increased competition
Increased need for ability to
understand different perspectives
Delivery methods
Ability to adapt, change and
learning on own
Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning

Traditional
Instructor
provides
Information



Student
responsible
for mastery
Instructor as source of
information
Millenial
Students have access
to information
Students expect
instructor to help
them master the
information
Instructor as learning coach
Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning
Instructor is
valued as
source of
information
Instructor
valued as
learning coach
What would this mean for professional development, delivery
methods, curriculum, pedagogy, classroom management?
Setting Context, Assessing
Trends, Forecasting the Future


Data isn’t about what you know...its
about how you make sense of it…how
you apply it.
While important, data is the least
interesting part. Analysis, synthesis,
evaluation is how the dots get
connected.