UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005
Migration Theories and their Application
George Groenewold, NiDi
A. Main Theories on International Migration
- Initiation viz.. perpetuation
- Macro/micro level factors
B. Theory-based empirical research
- NIDI/EUROSTAT study in selected African and European
countries
A. Main Theories on International Migration
A1. Theories on the initiation of Migration
1. Neoclassical economic theory (Lewis,1954; Todaro 1976)
• Focus on macro level factors only: geographical differences in
age,employment and capital investment opportunities cause migration. Push
and pull factors: i.e. factors in place of origin (e.g. poverty, unemployment)
push people out of that place to places with attractive features, e.g. high
living standard or job opportunities.
• Only individual decides whether or not to emigrate: focus on maximization
of income and skills development. Cost of migration: only perceived
financial and psychological costs determine whether emigration takes place
or not.
2. New Economics of Migration Theory (NELM) (Stark, 1981)
• Expansion of macro level factors: i.e. volatility/failures of local (agricultural)
markets. Lack of livelihood risk insurance and access to credit. Remittances of
emigrants as risk insurance for non-migrating household members.
• Emigration of individual is result of household decision-making. Emigration
contributes to diversification of income sources and difference in income risk
profiles. Remittances steady source of income.
3. Dual labor market theory (Piore, 1979)
• Macro level factors only: main cause of emigration is structural labor needs of
modern economies in destination areas (city, foreign country). Focus on pullfactors in destination areas: i.e structural shortage of labor at bottom-end
occupational hierarchy/low status/low income jobs. Wage-level differences
reflect social stratification, objective of people is upward mobility away from
bottom-end jobs, to be filled by immigrants.
• Neglect individual and household level motives and decision making
4. World Systems Theory (Wallerstein, 1974, Massey, 1989)
• Macro level factors only: main cause of emigration is Economic and Political
Globalization. Globalization brings about social change and alters traditional
employer/labor relations and introduces modern means of production
(mechanization) pushing unskilled laborers out of jobs.
• Neglect micro-level individual and household decision making, focus on macroeconomic global processes, e.g. market penetration of firms from rich countries
into poor countries affecting local norms, values, desires, aspirations leading to
increased emigration intentions.
A2. Theories on the perpetuation of migration
•
factors that initiate migration can be different from those that perpetuate
migration
5. Social Network theory (Hugo, 1981; Massey 1990)
• Focus on micro level factors: links between migrants and their friends/family
back-home initiate new migration movements. Such social networks lower
risks/costs of newcomers and lead to expansion of such networks in places
origin and destination and to more potential migration flows. Dynamic
perspective: decision-making environment changes over time, lowering
thresholds for subsequent migrants.
• Attention for individual/household-level decision making process, and for size,
composition, quality characteristics of social networks.
6. Institutional Theory
• Focus on macro-level processes: perpetuation is result of effect of informal and
illegal migration circuits and organisations dealing with (undocumented)
migrants. E.g. exploitation by one organization (migrant smuggling) is business
for other organizations (Charitas).
• Neglect individual and household level decision making.
7. Cumulative Causation Theory (Myrdal, 1957)
• Focus on macro-level socioeconomic processes; each act of migration results
in alteration of the social context in which subsequent migration decisions are
taken, making new movements more likely. Six main socioeconomic factors in
origin areas are affected leading to new migration flows: distribution of income
and land, regional distribution of human capital, organization of agriculture,
culture of migration, and the social meaning of work and particular jobs.
• Little attention for the individual or household level decisionmaking process.
8. Migration System Theory (Kritz and Zlotnik, 1992)
• Focus on both macro and micro level factors: attempt to integrate some of the
previous macro and micro level theories. Key issue is identification and
examination of stable migration flows between places of origin and
destinations to explain initiation and perpetuation of migration. An
‘International migration system’ consist of a particular set of core receiving
regions in countries of destination and a set of core sending regions in
countries of origin. Task is to identify, examine and relate migration processes
in sending and receiving areas.
• Takes account of individual and household level decision making processes.
B. Theory-based empirical research
NIDI/EUROSTAT study on determinants and
consequences of international migration in selected
African and European Countries
1996-1997
Background of the study
• Increasing international migration flows in magnitude
and complexity
• Growing attention at the policy level for causes and
consequences of international migration in countries
of origin and destination
Research Objective
• To improve the understanding of the direct and
indirect causes and mechanisms of international
migration to the European Union, from an
internationally comparative perspective
Research design
• Theoretical framework:
- Migration System Theory (Kritz and Zlotnik, 1992)
- Social Network Theory (Hugo, 1981)
- Cumulative Causation Theory (Myrdal, 1957)
• Theoretical perspective is guide to:
a. From what or whom to collect data
b. Definition of key concepts
c. Coverage and representativity of data
d. What data to collect
e. Which analyses to carry out
a. From what or whom to collect data
•
Different levels of spatial aggregation and different time periods:
- Country, province, town/community (context)
- Household and individuals (socio-economic, demographic
and migration-related behavioural characteristics)
- Ideally, longitudinal data (life-course perspective), but too costly.
Therefore, single-round cross-sectional surveys with retrospective
questions in countries belonging to same migration system.
•
Ideally, collect/analyse data on appropriate comparison groups:
- Households in origin countries that have not migrated
- Households in destination countries that migrated as entire
households and come from the same origin country
- Individual migrants in a destination country that come from the same
origin country
- Households remaining in the origin country from which someone
emigrated to that destination country
b. Definition of key concepts
•
Standardization of definitions to facilitate comparative analysis, such as:
• Household
Persons living together with communal arrangements on subsistence and
other necessities of life plus those who are presently residing elsewhere but
whose principal commitments and obligations are to that household with
expectation of return or join
• Migration
A move from one place in order to go and live in another place for a
continuous period of at least one year
• Recent migrant household
A household with at least one member who left within the past ten years and
either returned after a period of at least one year, or is currently living abroad
and left at least three months ago.The household may be classified as
current or return or a combination of the two.
c. Coverage, scope and depth
• Costs limit to coverage, scope, depth
• Migration system consisting of
countries in North and West Africa,
South-East Mediterranean and EU
countries
• Origin/receiving countries:
- Specific regions within countries
- Migrants to all destinations and
non-migrants (origin countries)
- Two immigrant groups from
origin countries (receiving countries)
- Though no qualitative research
EM/LD
EM/MD
RM/MD
Aksaray
RM/LD
Larache
EM/MD
RM/MD
RM/MD
RM/LD
EM/LD
RM/LD
RM/MD
RM/LD
RM/MD
EM/LD
EM/MD
Country
Level of statistical
representativity
aimed at
Households
screened
Spain
National
Not
reported
Not
applicable
Italy
Turkey
National
Regional
12,838
Target
sample
Households
successfully
interviewed
1,200
1,113
1,605
1,178
1,773
Total number of successfully completed
household interviews, by household
migration status
Senegalese
507
Egyptian
Moroccan
596
Ghanaian
509
669
Recent Migrant
Other
829
735
1,564
Recent Current
Egypt
Regional
27,438
2,588
1,943
604
Morocco
Regional
4,512
2,030
Rec.
Curr.
Rec.
Return
784
169
1,953
All Recent
Senegal
Ghana
Regional
Regional
13,298
21,504
1,971
1,980
All
NonRec.
263
Other
793
Mixed
NonMigrant
241
496
645
All NonRecent
522
NonMigrant
575
Recent Current
Recent Return
Other
719
49
829
1,742
1,597
Recent
Return
546
d. What data to collect
• Community, region and nation
-socioeconomic and demographic context data
• Household (e.g. economic head of household)
- Household roster (selected information on ALL household members)
- Information about living conditions and housing characteristics
- Current and past economic conditions of the household
- Remittances
• Individual (i.e. eligible household member)
- Social, demographic and social interaction and integration
- Economic activity, work status
- Migration history (!)
- Household composition in country of origin
- Economic situation before the last migration
- Motives for move(s) abroad
- Information about the last/current destination
- Migration networks and assistance
- Experiences at destination and iIntentions for (future) emigration
e. Which analyses to carry out
•
Comparative studies on determinants and consequences
of international migration
•
In-depth country studies
•
Multi-level analysis (macro/micro level effects on migration)
•
Collaborative research (policy makers and researchers)
•
Differentials non-migrant/migrant households in sending
and receiving countries
•
Specific thematic studies of interest to policy makers and
community of migration researchers, such as:
-
Determinants of remittances and effect on emigration intentions
-
Design of representative samples for surveys covering
international migrants
END