Supply and Demand Conditions for Electricians
A Labor Market Update and
Electrician Program Data
DECEMBER 2012
Prepared by:
Mohamed Mourssi
Research Analyst
(651) 259-7416
Mohamed.mourssi@state.mn.us
Labor market Information
MN Department of Employment & Economic Development (DEED)
In collaboration with:
Office of the Chancellor
Minnesota State Colleges and Universities
~1~
CONTENTS
PURPOSE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
BACKGROUND...................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Enrollment Caps ........................................................................................................................................................ 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................................... 4
DEMAND ............................................................................................................................................................................ 4
SUPPLY ............................................................................................................................................................................... 4
SUPPLY-DEMAND COMPARISON ............................................................................................................................ 4
HISTORY ................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Enrollment Caps ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Enrollment and Graduate Data Sources .......................................................................................................... 5
Related Report............................................................................................................................................................ 5
DEMAND ................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Industry Employment Trends .................................................................................................................................. 6
Job Vacancies ................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Short-term Projections .............................................................................................................................................. 12
Long-term Projections ............................................................................................................................................... 13
SUPPLY .................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Trends in Unemployment......................................................................................................................................... 14
Program Graduates ..................................................................................................................................................... 16
Apprenticeship Completers ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Program Enrollment ................................................................................................................................................... 18
WAGES................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
RELATED EMPLOYMENT RATE ................................................................................................................................. 21
SUPPLY-DEMAND COMPARISON ............................................................................................................................... 23
SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................ 24
[2]
PURPOSE
The purpose of this report is to provide a current regional analysis of the labor market for electricians in
the state of Minnesota. This report presents regional information on demand, supply, wages, and net
supply-demand.
BACKGROUND
On March 15, 2007 a memo was sent to Presidents and Chief Academic Officers at the 13 Minnesota
State Colleges and Universities with electrician programs that prohibited the addition of new electrician
programs and directed that fiscal year 2008 enrollment be limited to the fiscal year 2007 level. This
decision was based primarily on an analysis of statewide labor market data on electricians, including
trends in electrical contractor industry employment, Unemployment Insurance claims, long-term
occupational employment projections, job vacancies, and the number of electrician program completers
from all Minnesota post-secondary institutions. Subsequently in April 2007 regional estimates of the
supply/demand conditions for electricians were produced.
The March 15th, 2007 memo indicated that the decision to cap electrician enrollment would be rereassessed in October of subsequent years using both internal and external inputs. This report
references labor market activity through the first half of 2012.
ENROLLMENT CAPS
Based on an analysis of regional supply and demand conditions for electricians, enrollment caps were
issued for colleges that have electrician programs. These caps have remained in effect for all colleges,
except for Minnesota West Community and Technical College, whose enrollment cap was lifted in a June
4, 2009 memo and reinstated in a November 4, 2009 memo (p. 7). Based on this report, enrollment
caps will be reconsidered. Changes, if any, will be communicated to colleges.
[3]
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overall, statewide indicators show that the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession continues to impact
the electrician labor market. There remains a surplus of electricians in Minnesota; however that surplus
has been declining and is less than it was estimated one year ago.
DEMAND

Employment in the construction industry, where most electricians are employed, is up by 2,780
jobs or 2.7 percent from a year ago (p. 7), and short-term industry employment is projected to
slightly improve into the first half of 2013 (p. 12).

Over the next 10 years, the number of employed electricians is projected to grow by 3,558 or 35
percent. An additional 2,700 opening will result from replacement needs (p. 13).
SUPPLY

There were 586 electricians receiving regular Unemployment Insurance benefits in October
2012–a decline of 20.4 percent from a year ago, or 150 fewer individuals (p. 14).

The number of graduates from Minnesota electrician programs (284) in 2012 was down by 91
from 2010 academic year and down 58 from the 2011 academic year (p. 16).

Minnesota electrician program enrollment in the fall of 2012 is 813, a decrease of 223 or about
22 percent from 2010 academic year’s level, and a decrease of 55 or about 6.3 percent from
2011 academic year’s enrollment level (p. 18).

Wage trends for electricians in 2011 showed no upward pressure, indicating a more than
sufficient supply (p. 20).

Graduate Follow-up Survey data showed increases in related-employment rates in 2011.
Northeast is the only region that shows a decrease in the related employment rate by 5.6
percent, while the employment rate in southwest remained the same as 2010, 70.6 percent. All
other regions show higher related employment rates than last year. Twin Cities employment
rate increased to 84.4 percent from 80.2 percent in 2010 (p. 21).
SUPPLY-DEMAND COMPARISON


In 2012, Minnesota has a very small surplus of 36 electricians based on the supply-demand
comparison using the most recent job projections, job vacancy survey, unemployment
insurance, and 2012 program graduate data (p. 23).
Labor market and economic indicators point to a tightening market for electricians over the next
five years. The next several years will likely see a turning point in the supply and demand ratio
for electricians. Data indicate that this turnaround may happen most quickly in the Central
region.
[4]
HISTORY
ENROLLMENT CAPS
Colleges’ base enrollment caps, as listed in the table,
have remained unchanged. These enrollment caps
reflect program enrollment levels reported by
colleges for fall 2006.
ENROLLMENT AND GRADUATE DATA
SOURCES
Beginning with the December 2011 report, the source
for annual enrollment and program graduate data has
changed. Previously, colleges were asked to provide
these data. Now, this report reflects data acquired
from the system warehouse for current and prior
years.
LEGISLATIVE AUDIT REPORT
Electrician Program Enrollment Cap
College
Anoka
Dakota County
Hibbing
Lake Superior
Minneapolis
Minnesota State
Minnesota West
Northland
Northwest
Ridgewater
Riverland
Saint Cloud
Saint Paul
Total
Fall '06
Enrollment Cap
149
74
77
50
53
204
87
71
57
55
87
123
104
1,191
Fall '06
Enrollment Cap
332
127
178
380
87
87
1,191
In testimony before legislative committees during
2007 and 2008, the International Brotherhood of
Electrical Workers Local 292 questioned whether,
Region
during a time of high unemployment, the Minnesota
State Colleges and Universities system should
Northwest
continue enrolling students in electrician programs at
Northeast
the same pace as in previous years. Interested by this
Central
and broader questions, the Legislative Audit
Twin Cities
Commission directed the Office of the Legislative
Southwest
Auditor to evaluate MnSCU’s occupational programs.
Southeast
In March 2009 the State of Minnesota Office of the
Total
Legislative Auditor – Program Evaluation Division
issued its report titled: MnSCU Occupational
Programs. The report, which studied all occupational programs, recommended that “When reviewing
its cap on enrollments for construction electrician programs, MnSCU’s Office of the Chancellor should
take local economic conditions into greater account.” In response to this recommendation, annual
studies of the electricians labor market has been analyzed by planning region rather than just statewide,
as had been the prior practice.
[5]
DEMAND
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
In Minnesota, approximately 80 percent of all electricians are employed in the construction industry.1
Based on national staffing patterns within the construction industry itself, 93 percent of electricians are
employed by electrical contractor firms.2
Chart 1 below shows the seasonally-adjusted employment trend in statewide construction industry
employment. The total number of construction industry jobs in Minnesota grew until about February
2006. The total number of construction jobs in October 2012 was 94,000. This is down 38,000 or 28.8
percent from the high reached in February 2006, but up by a seasonally adjusted 3,700 jobs or 4.1
percent from a year ago.3
1
Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), Labor Market Information Office,
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/OES
2
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), OES, www.bls.gov/OES
3
DEED, Labor Market Information Office, Current Employment Statistics (CES), www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/CES
[6]
A more detailed breakdown of construction industry employment trends is not available on a
seasonally-adjusted basis. Instead, Table 1.1 shows the comparison of employment to the same month a
year ago. It should be noted that electrical contractors are found in the building equipment contractors
industry.
In October 2012 the construction industry added jobs year over year for the second year in a row after
more than five years of year over year job losses. As Table 1.1 shows, the industry expanded by adding
2,780 jobs, an over-the-year growth rate of 2.7 percent. Job growth was led by the construction of
buildings sector. Employment in the residential building construction subsector has slightly decreased by
0.3 percent. Related to the slight loss in residential building is the employment loss in foundation,
structure and building exterior contractors, the specialty trade subcontractors involved in the first
phases of the building project down 296 jobs or 2.2 percent from a year ago. The heavy and civil
engineering sector added 137 jobs over-the-year, a small gain of 0.8 percent.
[7]
As shown in table 1.2, during the third quarter of 2012, the number of housing units authorized by
building permits in Minnesota is 82.12 percent above the number authorized during the third quarter of
2011; and is 90.47 percent above the number of permits authorized during the third quarter of 2010.4
This brings the number of authorized units in third quarter 2012 above the level in third quarter 2008 for
the first time since the recession.
4
U.S. Census Bureau, Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits, www.census.gov/construction/bps
[8]
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is based on employer-submitted reports on payroll
employment and wages for the Minnesota Unemployment Insurance Tax. It shows the most detailed
breakdown of industry employment by industry category and geographic region. However, there is a
six-month lag in time from the end of the quarter for which employment is reported and when it
becomes available.
Chart 2 shows that while total specialty trades construction industry employment grew from 2001
through mid-2006; total electrical contractor employment is down since 2001. The demand for nonresidential electrical contracting work weakened after 2001, leveled off from 2004 to 2007, but dropped
sharply again from 2008 through 2010. The slowdown in residential construction has had a pronounced
impact on residential electrical contracting employment since 2005. However, employment in most
sectors began to level off in 2010 and expand slightly in 2011 with continued expansion in the first
quarter of 2012.
[9]
Chart 3 shows that the Twin Cities region had 59 percent of the total electrical contractor industry jobs
in Minnesota in 2011. Over 77 percent of the state’s job loss in the electrical contractor industry since
2001 has occurred in the Twin Cities region, a decline of 4,360 jobs or 41.0 percent.
Most regions in Greater Minnesota have experienced smaller changes over the time period, ranging
from a 4.4 percent decrease in the Northeast region to a 26.9 percent decrease in the Southeast region.
Numerically, the job loss ranges from 28 jobs lost in the Northeast region to 387 jobs lost in the
Southeast region. Between 2009 and 2011, there were job declines in the electrical contractor industry
in all regions of Minnesota.5
Job losses in the Electrical Contractor industry began to turn around in 2011 with over the year
employment growth statewide in 2011 and third quarter 2012. Five out of six regions saw over the year
job growth in this industry in 2011 and three out of six regions saw over the year job growth in third
quarter 2012: Twin Cities, Northwest and Central Minnesota.
5
DEED, Labor Market Information, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),
www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/QCEW
[10]
JOB VACANCIES
Twice each year the Department of Employment and Economic Development’s Labor Market
Information Office (DEED-LMI) conducts a survey of job openings in Minnesota. Chart 4 shows that the
statewide number of vacancies for electricians during the second quarter of 2012 decreased to almost
half (54) from the same quarter in the previous year (106). The job vacancy rate for electricians in the
second quarter of 2012 was estimated to be 0.5 percent, or 0.5 job openings for every 100 electrician
positions in the state. This is less than both the overall job vacancy rate for the major construction and
extraction occupational group (1.9%), and the overall job vacancy rate (2.5%).6
6
DEED, Labor Market Information, Job Vacancy Survey (JVS), www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/JVS
[11]
SHORT-TERM PROJECTIONS
Short-term industry and occupation employment projections are produced quarterly by DEED-LMI. The
most recent figures available are shown in Table 2 below. The number of employed electricians is
projected to grow by 256, or 2.5 percent over the next year. Additionally, electricians will be needed to
take jobs left vacant as individuals retire or otherwise leave the profession. An additional 240 electrician
openings will result from projected replacement openings.7
7
DEED, Labor Market Information Office, Employment Projections, www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/EO
[12]
LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
Table 3 shows the electrician employment and job openings projections for Minnesota and the six
planning regions for 2010-2020 from DEED-LMI long-term projections.
According to Table 3, there is a projected average annual demand of 626 electrician job openings each
year from 2010 to 2020 in Minnesota. Job openings in the seven-county Twin Cities region are projected
to account for 2,970 or 47.4 percent of the total openings for electricians in Minnesota. Net
replacement demand, including retirements, is also a big part of the long-term projections figures.
About 43.1 of every 100 projected openings are due to replacement demand.
[13]
SUPPLY
TRENDS IN UNEMPLOYMENT
Monthly data on electricians who have been receiving Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits provide
the best available information on the number of unemployed electricians, both union and non-union
members. However, it will not capture all of the unemployed due to eligibility requirements and the fact
that some individuals may have exhausted benefits. The chart below shows the comparable trend for
only those individuals receiving regular UI benefits over the past seven years. It does not include an
additional number of unemployed workers who received Federal Emergency Unemployment
Compensation (EUC) benefits. The EUC benefits were first paid in July 2008 and have been extended
several times since then.
The impact of the 2007 to 2009 recession on top of the earlier slowdown in residential construction is
dramatically reflected in the increase in unemployment insurance claims beginning in the fourth quarter
of 2007 and accelerating in 2009. As shown in Chart 5, the number of people receiving Unemployment
Insurance in October 2012 was 586, down by 150 or 20.4 percent from a year ago. The twelve-month
moving average in October 2012 was 869, down by 97 or 10.05 percent from a year ago.8 Recent
8
DEED, Labor Market Information, Unemployment Insurance
[14]
numbers of UI recipients have declined to pre-recessionary levels. It should be noted that the number of
electricians who exhausted their UI benefits reached a peak of 1,732 in calendar year 2010.
Chart 6 shows the 12-month moving average of electrician Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients by
the six sub-state planning regions. The increase in claims during the 2007-2009 recession was felt by all
regions of the State. Declines in the 12-month moving average of electrician UI recipients began to
decline in mid-2010.
In October 2012, the 12-month average number of electrician Unemployment Insurance recipients was
871, down by 95 or 9.8 percent from a year ago, with the Twin Cities region registering 10 fewer claims,
a decline of 2.7 percent. While having smaller numerical declines, unemployment has declined most
rapidly in the central region (down 50 claims or 22.7 percent) and in the northwest region (down 39
claims or 31.9 percent).
[15]
PROGRAM GRADUATES
The number of students completing electrician programs in Minnesota in 2012 was 91 fewer than in
2010, a decline of 24.3 percent, and was 58 fewer graduates than in 2011, a decline of 17.3 percent.
There were small regional variations in the number of electrician program graduates in Greater
Minnesota. The sharpest relative drop occurred in the Twin Cities region, which had 57 fewer total
graduates in 2012 compared to the number of graduates in the 2010 academic year. Programs in the
Northwest region registered 29 fewer graduates, Northeast registered three fewer graduates, and six
fewer students graduated from the Saint Cloud program in the Central region. Two regions–Southwest
(1) and Southeast (3)–registered more graduates in 2012 than in 2010.
Table 4: The Overall Number of Electrician Program Graduates Declined by Nearly TwentyFive Percent between 2010 and 2012
Institution
Anoka
Dakota County
Dunwoody*
Hibbing
Lake Superior
Minneapolis
Minnesota State
Minnesota West
Northland
Northwest
Ridgewater
Riverland
Saint Cloud
Saint Paul
TOTAL
2010
24
29
51
21
16
8
53
22
25
19
21
15
39
32
375
Graduates
2011
23
15
47
19
24
6
47
21
22
22
19
19
33
25
342
REGION
Northwest
Northeast
Central
Twin Cities
Metropolitan Area
Southwest
Southeast
TOTAL
2010
97
37
60
Graduates
2011
91
43
52
144
22
15
375
116
21
19
342
2012
10
21
21
22
12
9
43
23
15
10
20
18
34
26
284
Change 2011 to 2012
Number Percent
-13
-56.5%
6
40.0%
-26
-55.3%
3
15.8%
-12
-50.0%
3
50.0%
-4
-8.5%
2
9.5%
-7
-31.8%
-12
-54.5%
1
5.3%
-1
-5.3%
1
3.0%
1
4.0%
-58
-17.0%
Change 2010 to 2012
Number
Percent
-14
-58.3%
-8
-27.6%
-30
-58.8%
1
4.8%
-4
-25.0%
1
12.5%
-10
-18.9%
1
4.5%
-10
-40.0%
-9
-47.4%
-1
-4.8%
3
20.0%
-5
-12.8%
-6
-18.8%
-91
-24.3%
2012
68
34
54
Change 2010 to 2012
Number Percent
-23
-25.3%
-9
-20.9%
2
3.8%
Change 2010 to 2012
Number
Percent
-29
-29.9%
-3
-8.1%
-6
-10.0%
87
23
18
284
*Data provided by Dunwoody.
Source: MnSCU, System Office Research
[16]
-29
2
-1
-58
-25.0%
9.5%
-5.3%
-17.0%
-57
1
3
-91
-39.6%
4.5%
20.0%
-24.3%
APPRENTICESHIP COMPLETERS
Another source of supply for electricians is formal apprenticeship programs. As table 5 shows, the
number of electrician apprenticeship completions in fiscal year 2011 slightly increased by 26, or about
21 percent, from the previous year. The number of apprentices was slightly higher than the level in
2007, at the start of the economic recession. However, it was 156 or 51 percent below the peak number
in 2003.
[17]
PROGRAM ENROLLMENT
As shown in table 6, the number of students enrolled in electrician programs was down by 223 or 21.5
percent in the fall of 2012 compared to the 2010 school year, and was down 55 or 6.3 percent from the
number of students enrolled in the fall of 2011. This suggests that the total number of graduates will
decrease in FY 2013.
Table 6: Total Enrollment in Electrician Programs Declined by More Than Twenty-One
Percent from 2010 School Year
INSTITUTION
Anoka
Dakota County
Dunwoody*
Hibbing
Lake Superior
Minneapolis
Minnesota State
Minnesota West
Northland
Northwest
Ridgewater
Riverland
St. Cloud
Saint Paul
TOTAL
Total Enrollment
Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012
78
46
45
92
80
71
64
38
41
51
54
56
88
80
65
71
69
58
139
116
100
80
63
60
63
48
48
44
29
30
51
47
47
55
41
36
87
75
70
73
82
86
1,036
868
813
Change 2011 to 2012
Number
Percent
-1
-2.2%
-9
-11.3%
3
7.9%
2
3.7%
-15
-18.8%
-11
-15.9%
-16
-13.8%
-3
-4.8%
0
0.0%
1
3.4%
0
0.0%
-5
-12.2%
-5
-6.7%
4
4.9%
-55
-6.3%
Change 2010 to 2012
Number
Percent
-33
-42.3%
-21
-22.8%
-23
-35.9%
5
9.8%
-23
-26.1%
-13
-18.3%
-39
-28.1%
-20
-25.0%
-15
-23.8%
-14
-31.8%
-4
-7.8%
-19
-34.5%
-17
-19.5%
13
17.8%
-223
-21.5%
Total Enrollment
Change 2010 to 2012
Change 2010 to 2012
REGION
Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012
Number
Percent Number
Percent
Northwest
246
193
178
-15
-7.8%
-68
-27.6%
Northeast
139
134
121
-13
-9.7%
-18
-12.9%
Central
138
122
117
-5
-4.1%
-21
-15.2%
Twin Cities
378
315
301
-14
-4.4%
-77
-20.4%
Southwest
80
63
60
-3
-4.8%
-20
-25.0%
Southeast
55
41
36
-5
-12.2%
-19
-34.5%
TOTAL
1,036
868
813
-55
-6.3%
-223
-21.5%
*Data provided by Dunwoody.
Data displayed include the number of unique students with one or more declared majors in programs
with a CIP Code of 46.0302.
Source: System Office Research, Planning and Policy
Note: These tables reflect some minor corrections to the numbers of graduates and enrollment levels
published in previous reports.
[18]
Chart 7 displays the trend in electrician program enrollment at the 13 colleges in the Minnesota State
Colleges and Universities system and Dunwoody College over the past six fall survey periods.
The number of graduates in 2012 is very likely going to be fewer than in 2010 and 2011 due to the more
moderate drop in the number of students with a declared major in an electrician program.
[19]
WAGES
Another way to determine if there is a shortage or surplus of workers is to track the rate and direction of
change in wages. If there is a shortage, the wage level should increase at a faster than average rate to
attract workers to move to the area or to persuade them to enter the field. If there is not a shortage,
wage levels will increase at a slower than average rate or even decline.
Chart 8 shows both non-inflation-adjusted average weekly wages (actual) and inflation-adjusted (real)
average weekly wages. The 2011 actual average weekly wage level for electricians in Minnesota,
$1,100.00, is considerably higher than the average weekly wage for all occupations, $920.00. Total all
industry wages have grown faster over the 2000 to 2007 period and have decreased less over the 2008
to 2011 period than electricians’ wages. This indicates that there is still a surplus of electricians because
wage growth is not keeping pace with economy wide gains. Average weekly wages for electricians
increased slightly in 2011 after declining for two consecutive years. By way of comparison, overall
average weekly wages grew at nearly the same rate as inflation as measured by the Consumer Price
Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) until 2008. The increase in the average weekly real wages
between 2006 and 2008 may be evidence of the least senior people getting laid off, leaving the
highest paid workers in the market during the recession. The 2009 and 2010 bump down is
probably evidence of the market’s coming back into alignment and some newer workers coming in
at lower wages and possibly also a realignment of wages overall. Despite the faster rate of inflation in
2011 (3.6%) the overall real average weekly wages showed a slight gain of 1.00 percent. However, the
trend is a bit unclear because there were increases in wages during the recession but that could be due
to the lowest paid, least senior people losing their jobs.
[20]
Chart 9 below compares actual average weekly wages paid to all workers in the electrical contractor
industry statewide and in six planning regions. All regions experienced an increase in actual wages in
2011 ranging from 1.8 percent to 4.1 percent. Twin Cities wages, after showing declines over two
consecutive years, 2009 and 2010, grew in 2011, up $50.00 or 4.1 percent. Actual wages in the
northeast region have shown the greatest gain over the 2007 to 2010 period, increasing by almost 16
percent, with continued growth, up 4.1 percent or $43.00 in 2011. Northwest shows the second largest
gain in actual average weekly wages with a nearly seven percent growth over the 2007 to 2010 period,
and continued growth in 2011.
RELATED EMPLOYMENT RATE
Data collected from the Minnesota State Colleges and Universities Graduate Follow-up Survey provides
another indicator of the supply and demand conditions for electricians. Table 7 on the following page
generally reaffirms other data presented throughout this report that show that labor market conditions
have begun to improve for electricians. . The statewide related employment rate increased from a low
of 62.1 percent in 2009 to 81.7 percent in 2010 and 85.5 percent in 2011. The data also show that
employment rates in the Twin Cities are slightly higher than in Greater Minnesota, as the rate for Twin
Cities’ graduates, 84.4 percent, was about 1.0 percentage point higher than the average rate for
graduates from programs in Greater Minnesota, 83.8 percent.
In 2011, the overall related employment rate improved at two of the four Twin Cities programs, while it
slightly declined at the other two programs. The related employment rate for programs at Minneapolis
Community and Technical College (97.4%) and Anoka Technical College (78.9%) were noticeably higher
[21]
in 2011 than they were in 2010, while the programs in Dakota County Technical College (57.1%) and St.
Paul (66.7%) showed declines.
While the Greater Minnesota program graduates generally fared better than they did a year earlier, the
2011 graduates of electrician programs in southwest and southeast Minnesota had a somewhat harder
time finding related employment compared to their counterparts in other Greater Minnesota regions.
The related employment rate for 2011 graduates from Minnesota West College remained the same as
2010 with the rate of 70.6 percent. Riverland’s electrician program graduates fared somewhat better in
finding work in the year after graduation as the related employment rate increased from 70.0 percent in
2010 to 80.0 percent in 2011. However, it is still below the overall average for graduates in Greater
Minnesota.
The related employment rate for 2011 graduates of the three programs in the northwest region
(Minnesota State, Northland and Northwest) was 84.1 percent. This is very good, and it shows a 6.6
percent increase over the previous year’s rate of 77.5 percent.
Despite the huge improvement achieved in 2010, the 2011 data shows that related employment rates
for northeast region graduates (Hibbing and Lake Superior) declined by 5.6 percent in 2011. The related
employment rate for 2011 graduates of Hibbing decreased 10.0 percent in 2011, while the employment
rate for graduates of Lake Superior showed a decrease of 3.3 percent. This means that the job market
for graduates in the northeast has significantly improved since the recession but remains challenging
and is unstable.
[22]
SUPPLY-DEMAND COMPARISON
The initial study of supply/demand conditions for electricians done in the spring of 2007 showed an
estimated surplus of 575 electricians. The report released in October 2007 estimated the surplus at 428;
a surplus of over 1,400 electricians in 2009; a surplus of 660 in 2010; and a surplus of 450 in 2011. Table
8 below shows a surplus of 36 electricians in the state based on the supply-demand comparison using
the most recent job opening projections9, job vacancy survey, unemployment insurance, and 2011
program graduate data collected via a survey of colleges.
The overall surplus has dramatically declined in all regions in 2012; however, the degree of surplus
varies from one region to another. The central region has the largest estimated surplus, at 72, down
from 171 last year, and the highest ratio of supply to demand, at 1.8. Two regions are experiencing a
shortage of electricians; the Twin Cities has a small shortage of 14 electricians moving from a surplus of
83 last year, while the southwest region’s estimate shows a surprisingly high shortage of 49. The
northeast region’s estimate shows the smallest numeric surplus, at 7. The surplus in the northwest,
northeast, and southeast regions have the same ratio of supply to demand, at 1.2.
9
Demand is measured by taking the annual average openings projected between 2009 and 2019 and adding the number of
current Minnesota job vacancies, which have been distributed across regions based on regional employment concentrations as
electrician job vacancies are not available for all regions.
[23]
SUMMARY
This paper has reviewed available labor market indicators of supply and demand for electricians in
Minnesota and its sub-state regions as of the third quarter of 2012. Data presented in the report shows
that electricians’ employment conditions are improving at a rapid rate and that all evidence points to
the fact that this trend will continue into the future. However, labor market conditions for electricians
are not yet back to their levels prior to the recession.
There are still flashing yellow lights indicating some level of uncertainty in relation to employment levels
at both statewide and regional levels as the Minnesota economy continues to recover from the worst
recession in the past 70 years. While the surplus is much less than what it was a year ago, the overall
supply of electricians continues to be higher than demand. Employment rates for electrician graduates
from Minnesota state colleges has improved enormously in 2010 and 2011, but there is still about 50
recent graduates who have not found work. Data about 2012 employment rates is not available yet.
Short-term employment projections for electricians indicate steady over the year growth of 2.5 percent
into the second quarter of 2013.
On the supply side, unemployment insurance claims continue to fall, which may be a sign of improving
conditions. However, the number of electricians who’ve exhausted their benefits peaked at over 1,730
in calendar year 2010. The number of students enrolled in electrician programs continues to contract in
response to demand and the number of graduates is likely to decline again next spring.
Real wages have been flat since 2000. This lack of wage growth indicates that there is no undersupply of
electricians at this time. However, there was a very small increase between 2010 and 2011. While it is
too early to indicate a positive wage trend, it may be a good sign for the occupation.
By region, Central seems to be closest to a turnaround in demand conditions, based on employment
growth, projected employment growth and the related employment rate. However, wages in Central
show no upward pressure at this point. Overall, the data do not indicate the need for a greater supply
of electricians in this region at this time.
A March 15, 2007 memo, sent to 13 Presidents and Chief Academic Officers of colleges that have
electrician programs, prohibited the addition of new electrician programs and limited enrollment for
existing programs based on an analysis of regional supply and demand conditions for electricians. These
caps have remained in effect for all colleges, except for Minnesota West Community and Technical
College, whose enrollment cap was lifted in a June 4, 2009 memo and reinstated in a November 4, 2009
memo. Each year enrollment caps are reconsidered.
[24]