Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Technology Horizons:
A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology
During 2010-2030
Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm
Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force
Air Force Pentagon (4E130)
Washington, D.C.
26 August 2010
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
1
The Air Force is Critically Dependent on
Science & Technology Advances
Stealth / LO
Powered flight
Long-endurance ISR
Global positioning
Supersonic flow
Communications
Computer simulations
Precision strike
Gas turbine engine
High-power lasers
Night attack
ICBMs
Directed energy
Aerial refueling
Hypersonics
High-speed flight
Space launch
Space ISR
Rocket flight
Blended wing-body
Long-range radar
5th-gen fighters
Unmanned systems
Cyber operations
2
The Path from Science and Technology
to New Air Force Capabilities
Acquisition
Research & Development
Materiel Development
Decision (MDD)
Universities
Milestone A
Milestone B
Milestone C
Air Force Research Laboratory
Basic
Research
Applied
Research
Advanced
Technology
Development
Budget Activity 1
(6.1)
Budget Activity 2
(6.2)
Budget Activity 3
(6.3)
Concept
Refinement
System
Development &
Demonstration
Advanced
Development
BA 5
Budget Activity 4
Production,
Fielding,
Sustainment
BA 6,7
Technology Readiness Level (TRL): Definitions
TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reported
TRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulated
TRL 3: Analytical or experimental proof of concept
TRL 4: Component validation in laboratory environment
TRL 5: Component validation in relevant environment
TRL 6: System/subsystem demonstration in relevant environment
TRL 7: System prototype demonstration in an operational environment
TRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test and demo
TRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations
•
•
•
•
•
Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP)
Initial Operational Test & Eval. (IOT&E)
Full Rate Production (FRP)
Initial Operational Capability (IOC)
Field and Sustain
3
What New S&T Advances Will Create the
Next Generation of USAF Capabilities?
Maintaining superior capabilities over its adversaries requires the Air Force to continually
seek new science and technology advances and integrate these into fieldable systems
4
U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”
SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter
Terms of Reference (TOR)
5
Overview of Air Force S&T Visions
1
3
6
7
Toward New
Horizons
(1945)
Project
Forecast
(1964)
New World
Vistas
(1995)
Technology
Horizons
(2010)
High-impact studies
2
4
5
Woods Hole
Summer Study
(1958)
New
Horizons II
(1975)
Project
Forecast II
(1986)
Low-impact studies
1940s
1

1950s
2
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
3
4
5
6
2010+
2000s
7
“Technology Horizons” is the next in a succession of major S&T
vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level to
define the key Air Force S&T investments over the next decade
6
10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process
Cross-Domain
STEP 2
STEP 1
10-Years-Forward
Science & Technology
Projection
Air
10-Years-Forward
Capabilities
Projection
Capabilities
Today
S&T
Advances
in 10 Years
Resulting
Capabilities
in 20 Years
(2010)
(2020)
(2030)
10-Years-Back
Science & Technology
Investment Need
10-Years-Back
Counter-Capability
Technology Need
STEP 4
STEP 3
Future U.S.
Capabilities
Space
Cyber
Potential
Adversary
Capabilities
Cyber
U.S.
CounterCapabilities
Space
Air
Cross-Domain
“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view
7
Broad Range of Inputs to Study

Perspectives from participants in “Technology Horizons” working
groups: Air, Space, Cyber, and Cross-Domain groups

Representation on working groups from AFRL, MAJCOMs, NASIC,
FFRDCs, industry, and academia

Numerous Air Force operational perspectives from briefings and
site visits, including AFMC, ACC, AFSPC, AMC and AFSOC

Site visits, briefings, and discussions with organizations across
Air Force, DoD, federal agencies, FFRDCs, national laboratories,
and industry

Site visits to in-theater operational bases

Additional insights from S&T Cell at Air Force Futures Game 09
including US, CAN, UK and AUS members

Studies and reports related to defense science, including Air Force
Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and Defense Science Board (DSB)

Over 200 additional papers, reports, briefings and other sources
8
“Technology Horizons” Study Phases
Mar 09
Jun 09
Oct 09
Dec 09
Feb 2010
“Technology Horizons”
2010+
Planning
Phase 1
Working
Phase 2
Working
Phase 3
Working
Phase 4
Implementation
Phase 5
Objectives,
Tasking, and
Organization,
Air, Space, Cyber
Domain Working
Groups
Cross-Domain
Working
Group
Findings,
Conclusions &
Recommendations
Dissemination of
Results and
Implementation
Report and Outbrief
9
Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030
from “Technology Horizons”
10
Overarching Themes for Vectoring
Air Force S&T During 2010-2030
11
Process to Identify Potential Capability
Areas and Key Technology Areas
12
Potential Capability Areas (1/2)
PCA1:
Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems
PCA2:
Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments
PCA3:
Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior
PCA4:
Augmentation of Human Performance
PCA5:
Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training
PCA6:
Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems
PCA7:
Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization
PCA8:
Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations
PCA9:
Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments
PCA10:
Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications
PCA11:
Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays
PCA12:
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors
PCA13:
High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships
PCA14:
Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems
PCA15:
Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems
13
Potential Capability Areas (2/2)
PCA16:
Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply
PCA17:
Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters
PCA18:
Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft
PCA19:
Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA20:
Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems
PCA21:
Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike
PCA22:
High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile
PCA23:
Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions
PCA24:
Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA25:
Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions
PCA26:
Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch
PCA27:
Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA28:
Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems
PCA29:
Persistent Space Situational Awareness
PCA30:
Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction
14
Mapping Potential Capability Areas to
Air Force Service Core Functions
Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)
15
Dramatically Increased Use of Highly
Adaptable Autonomous Systems

Capability increases, manpower efficiencies,
and cost reductions are possible through far
greater use of autonomous systems

Dramatic in degree of autonomy and range of
systems and processes where autonomous
reasoning and control can be applied

Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain
operational advantages over adversaries
using human planning and decision loops

S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly
adaptible autonomous systems is a key to
enabling this transformation

Potential adversaries may gain benefits from
fielding such systems without any burden of
establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”

As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such
autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead
in developing the underlying S&T basis
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
16
Augmentation of Human Performance
to Better Match Users with Technology

Natural human capacities are becoming
increasingly mismatched to data volumes,
processing capabilities, and decision speeds
that are offered or demanded by technology

S&T to augment human performance will be
needed to gain benefits of new technologies

May come from increaed use of autonomous
systems, improved man-machine interfaces,
or direct augmentation of humans
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
17
Technologies to Enable Freedom of
Operations in Contested Environments

S&T advances are needed in three key areas
to enable increased freedom of operations in
contested or denied environments

Basic and early applied research are needed
to support development of these capabilities

Technologies for increased cyber resilience


Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in
GPS-denied environments


e.g., massive virtualization, highly
polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors
e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate)
INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks
Technologies to support dominance in
electromagnetic spectrum warfare

e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral
mutability, advanced RF apertures
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
18
Processing-Enabled Intelligent Sensors
Fractionated Composable UAV Systems
Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

Current massive data flow from ISR platforms
is created tremendous PED manpower need

Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing;
even more Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS

Technologies needed to enable cueing-level
processing before data leaves the sensor

UAV system fractionation is a relatively new
architecture enabled by technology advances

Allows complete system to be separated into
functional elements cooperating as a system

Common platform having element-specific
payload enabled lower cost and attritability

Permits mission-specific composition of
systems from lower-cost common elements

Low levels of redundancy among elements
dramatically increases system survivability
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
19
Additional Potential Capability Areas
(PCAs) in “Technology Horizons”
PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines
PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense
PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites
PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
20
Technology Areas Identified for Each
Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)

PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems

Ad hoc networks

Autonomous systems

Virtual machine architectures

Autonomous reasoning

Agile hypervisors

Resilient autonomy

Polymorphic networks

Collaborative/cooperative control

Agile networks

Decision support tools

Pseudorandom network recomposition

Automated software generation

Laser communications

Distributed sensing networks

Secure RF links

Sensor data fusion

Frequency-agile RF systems

Signal identification and recognition

Spectral mutability

Cyber offense

Dynamic spectrum access

Cyber defense

Quantum key distribution

Cyber resilience

Complex adaptive distributed networks

Advanced computing architectures

Complex adaptive systems

Complex environment visualization

Complex system dynamics

Massive analytics

V&V for complex adaptive systems

Automated reasoning and learning
21
Combined Set of Technology Areas
Identified Across all 30 PCAs (1/2)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Advanced aerodynamic configurations
Aerodynamic experimental evaluation
Cold-atom INS
Chip-scale atomic clocks
Advanced TPS materials
Scramjet propulsion systems
Ad hoc networks
Polymorphic networks
Virtual machine architectures
Agile hypervisors
Agile networks
Pseudorandom network recomposition
Complex adaptive distributed networks
Modular small-sat components
Distributed small-sat architectures
Fractionated small-sat architectures
Laser communications
Short-range secure RF communications
Frequency-agile RF systems
Spectral mutability
Dynamic spectrum access
Quantum key distribution
Complex adaptive systems
Complex system dynamics
V&V for complex adaptive systems
Solid-state lasers
Fiber lasers
Semiconductor lasers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Beam control
Directed energy effects
Directed energy protection
High-power microwaves
Quantum computing
Space weather
Orbital environment characterization
Satellite drag modeling
Space situational awareness
Lightweight multi-functional structures
Advanced composite fabrication
Structural modeling and simulation
Multi-scale simulation technologies
Coupled multi-physics simulations
Validation support to simulations
Autonomous systems
Autonomous reasoning
Resilient autonomy
Collaborative/cooperative control
Autonomous mission planning
Embedded diagnostics
Health monitoring and prognosis
Decision support tools
Automated software generation
High-altitude airships
Passive radar
Advanced RF apertures
Secure RF links
22
Combined Set of Technology Areas
Identified Across all 30 PCAs (2/2)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
RF electronic warfare
EO/IR sensing
IR signature suppression
Distributed sensing networks
Integrated sensing and processing
Sensor-based processing
Signal identification and recognition
Information fusion and understanding
Cyber offense
Cyber defense
Cyber resilience
Advanced computing architectures
Biological signatures
Human behavior modeling
Cultural behavior modeling
Social network modeling
Behavior prediction and anticipation
Influence measures
Cognitive modeling
Complex environment visualization
Massive analytics
Automated reasoning and learning
Cognitive performance augmentation
Physical performance augmentation
Human-machine interfaces
High-temperature materials
High-altitude materials
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lightweight materials
Advanced composites
Composites sustainment
Optical and infrared materials
RF and electronic materials
Metamaterials
Self-healing materials
Nanomaterials
Nondestructive evaluation
Material-specific manufacturing
Hydrocarbon boost engine
Spacecraft propulsion
Electric propulsion
Energy storage
High-temperature electronics
Radiation hardened electronics
Alternate fuels
System-level thermal management M&S
Thermal management components
Three-stream engine architectures
High-temperature fuel technologies
High-OPR compressors
Engine component testing
Advanced and interturbine burners
Efficient bleedless inlets
Serpentine nozzles
High-speed turbines
23
High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE)
Air Vehicle Systems

New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE)
and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years

Delicate lightweight structures can survive
low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen

Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight
batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems

Large airships containing football field size
radars give extreme resolution/persistence
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
24
Airship-Based HALE ISR Systems &
Partially-Buoyant Cargo Airlifters

HALE airship platforms are being examined for
numerous ISR and comm relay applications

Current DoD HALE Airship programs include:


Long-Endurance Multi-INT Vehicle (LEMV)

HALE Demonstrator (HALE-D)

Blue Devil (Polar 400 airship + King Air A-90)

Integrated Sensor is Structure (ISIS)
Hybrid airships achieve partial lift from buoyancy
and part aerodynamically from forward flight
LMCO “Project 791”
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
DARPA “ISIS”
Cleared for Public Release
Examples of Current DoD
HALE Airship Programs
High-Altitude Long-Endurance Demo HALE-D
Blue Devil “Polar 400”
26 August 2010
25
Hybrid Wing-Body (HWB) Aircraft for
Higher Aerodynamic Fuel Efficiency

Hybrid wing-body with blended juncture has
greater fuel efficiency than tube-and-wing

Body provides significant fraction of total lift;
resulting volumetric efficiency is improved

Potential Air Force uses as airborne tanker
or as cargo transport aircraft

Fabrication of pressurized body sections is
enabled by PRSEUS technology

X-48B flight tests (NASA / AFRL / Boeing)
have examined aerodynamic performance
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
26
Scramjet Engine Development and
Scale-Up in Robust Scramjet Program

Hydrocarbon-fueled dual-mode ram/scramjet
combustor allows operation over Mach range

Thermal management, ignition, flameholding

GDE-1 was flight weight hydrocarbon fuelcooled but with open-loop fuel system

GDE-2 was closed-loop hydrocarbon fuelcooled system intended for NASA X-43C

SJX61-1,2 were closed-loop HC fuel-cooled
development/clearance engines for X-51A
Ground Demo Engine (GDE-2)
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
SJX61-1 Development Engine
Cleared for Public Release
SJX61-2 Flight Clearance Engine
26 August 2010
27
Hypersonic Global ISR Vehicles

JP-fueled scramjet propulsion system could potentially enable a medium-size
rapid-response ISR vehicle having operationally relevant range capability

Mach 6 limit avoids complex thermal management penalties at higher Mach

Vertical takeoff / horizontal landing (VTHL) enables single-stage rocket-based
combined-cycle (RBCC) system having 5000 nmi range with 2000 lbs payload

Integral rocket boost to Mach 3.5 with ram-scram acceleration to Mach 6

Time-responsive missions at long ranges while maintaining runway landings
Notional Mach 6 single-stage reusable VTHL ISR vehicle with 5000 nmi range (Astrox)
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
28
Airbreathing Two-Stage-to-Orbit
(TSTO) Access to Space Vehicles

Airbreathing systems offer enormous advantages
for TSTO access-to-space; reusable space access
with aircraft-like operations

Air Force / NASA conducting joint configuration
option assessments using Level 1 & 2 analyses

Reusable rockets (RR), turbine-based (TBCC) and
rocket-based (RBCC) combined cycles
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
29
Laser-Based Directed Energy Systems
for Low Collateral Damage Strike

Laser-based directed energy systems approaching
operationally useful power, size, and beam quality

Distinction between tactical DE (e.g., ATL in C-130)
vs. strategic DE (e.g., ABL in B747)

Tactical-scale systems enabled ultra-low collateral
damage strike and airborne self-defense

Technology path from COIL lasers to bulk solid
state (e.g., HELLADS) to fiber lasers to DPALs

Demonstration path leads to airborne test (ELLA)
General
Atomics
Unit Cells
North Oscura Peak (NOP)
White Sands Missile Range
ELLA Flight Demonstration
AFRL Fiber Laser Testbed
AFRL Rubidium DPAL Experiment
Textron
2010
AFA Technology Symposium 2010
2012
2017
Cleared for Public Release
26 August 2010
30
“Grand Challenges” for Air Force S&T
#1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Networks

Autonomous scalable technologies enabling large, nonsecure networks to
be inherently resilient to attacks entering through network or application
layers, and to attacks that pass through these layers
#2: Trusted Highly-Autonomous Decision-Making Systems

Broad principles, theoretical constructs, and algorithmic embodiments
for autonomous decision-making in applications where inherent decision
time scales far exceed human capacity
#3: Fractionated, Composable, Survivable, Autonomous Systems

Survivable system architecture based on fractionation with redundancy
using collaborative control and adapative autonomous mission planning
#4: Hyper-Precision Aerial Delivery in Difficult Environments

Low-cost, air-dropped, autonomously guided, precise delivery under GPSdenial for altitudes and winds representative of steep mountainous terrain
31
Main Take-Away Points

Air Force S&T priorities span across a
wide range of technical areas

Technology Horizons gives the vision
for key USAF S&T over next decade

Growing technology areas include
dramatically increased use of highly
adaptable autonomous systems

Fractionated composable architectures
enable a new approach for high/low
missions and low cost survivability

Technologies for reducing fuel costs will
become increasingly important


e.g., airships, HWB, VAATE programs
“Technology Horizons” is already being
used to increase focus of Air Force S&T
32
Questions / Discussion
33