Critical and Strategic
Thinking
Browne & Keeley’s Cr.Th. Q’s
1. What are the issues and the conclusions?
2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions?
3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous?
4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions about
value priorities?
5. What are the descriptive assumptions?
6. How good is the evidence?
7. What significant information is omitted?
8. Are the statistics deceptive or misleading?
9. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning?
10.Are there rival causes, i.e., other explanations or
interpretations of the evidence or these findings?
11.What other reasonable conclusions are possible?
Some Un-critical Thinking
Heavier-than-air flying machines are
impossible.
– Lord Kelvin-British mathematician, physicist, and president
of the British Royal Society, c. 1895.
A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is
outside the range of probability.
– Harvard Economic Society-Weekly Letter November 16,
1929
More Un-critical Thinking
Gone with the Wind is going to be the
biggest flop in Hollywood history.
– Gary Cooper, 1937, after turning down the role of Rhett
Butler
They couldn't hit an elephant at this
dist_____
– General John B. Sedgwick-Union Army Civil War officer's
last words, uttered during the Battle of Spotsylvania, 1864
Some Common Fallacies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Slippery Slope: assuming that a proposed step will set off an uncontrollable chain of undesirable
events
Searching for Perfect Solution: unwilling to solve part of a problem
Equivocation: using a key word with two or more meanings in an argument
Appeal to Popularity : falsely assumes that something favored by a large group is desirable
Appeal to Questionable Authority: citing an authority who lacks special expertise on the issue at
hand
Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged language to distract from relevant reasons and
evidence
Straw Person: Distorting one’s opponent’s point of view so that is it easy to attack
Attacks: Attacks a person or a person’s background, instead of the person’s ideas
Either-Or: assuming only two alternatives
Wishful Thinking: assuming that, because we wish X were true or false, then X is indeed true or
false
Explaining by Naming: assuming that a name for some event or behavior adequately explained
the event
Glittering Generality: Use of vague emotionally appealing virtue words
Red Herring: An irrelevant topic is presented to divert attention from the original issue
Begging the Question: an argument in which the conclusion is assumed in the reasoning.
Hasty Generalization: drawing a conclusion about a large group based on experiences with only
a few members
Faulty Analogy: using an analogy in which there are important relevant dissimilarities
Causal Oversimplification: explaining an event by relying on causal factors that are insufficient…
Confusion of Cause and Effect: confusing the cause with the effect of an event
Neglect of a Common Cause: failure to recognize that two events may be related because of a 3rd
factor
Post Hoc: assuming that a particular event, B, is caused by another event, A, simply because B
follows A in time.
The Socialist Democrat Establishment of
America wants to shut Pro-American
Voices Up!
(2008, on a tee-shirt, with this capitalization)
The history of forcing fluoride on humans
through the fluoridation of drinking water is
wrought with lies, greed and deception.
Governments that add fluoride to drinking water
supplies insist that it is safe, beneficial and
necessary, however, scientific evidence shows
that fluoride is not safe to ingest… The lies of
the benefits of water fluoridation will continue to
be fed to the public, not to encourage health
benefits to a large number of people, but to profit
the military-industrial complex.
(2007)
The number one economic threat to our nation
and our well-being is the price of a gallon of gas.
We as individuals and our nation are at risk. We
have watched the price of gas sharply increase
and to this day our Congress has done nothing
or even indicated they have a plan. The quickest
and most helpful thing Congress can do to
reduce the price of gas right now is to lift the
moratorium on drilling for oil in the U.S. and
offshore. Drilling offshore can be done safely
now! Other nations are doing it now! (2008)
Strategic Thinking
1. Identify & focus on important issues
2. Select key, relevant information
3. Recognize systemic properties
4. Understand through:
– Distinguishing causes from effects
– Clarifying (tacit) underlying assumptions
– Considering issue in a larger context
– Maintaining a long-term view
Strategic Thinking (cont.)
5. Appreciate implications & consequences
6. Generate alternatives & evaluate
objectively
7. Integrate logical/rational &
creative/generative thinking
8. Remain flexible
9. Act in the face of emotional discomfort
Strategic Thinking (1 page)
1. Identify & focus on important issues
2. Select key, relevant information
3. Recognize systemic properties
4. Understand through:
–
–
–
–
Distinguishing causes from effects or symptoms
Clarifying (often tacit) underlying assumptions
Considering the issue or situation in a larger context
Maintaining a long-term view
5. Appreciate implications & consequences
6. Generate alternatives & evaluate objectively
7. Integrate logical/rational & creative/generative thinking
8. Remain flexible
9. Act in the face of emotional discomfort
Another View of Strategic Thinking
Thinking more deeply to distinguish
underlying causes and issues from more
obvious symptoms
Thinking more broadly to recognize
systemic linkages, interactions, and
patterns
Thinking long-term as well as short-term
about implications and consequences
Strategic Thinking Case
Apply strategic thinking to the case,
making notes for yourself
Discuss in groups
Report out with total class discussion
Southwest Airlines Strategies
Be a short-haul niche player (initially)
Fly frequently between pairs of cities not
too far apart (not hub-and-spoke system)
Use uncongested secondary airports
Fly only one type of aircraft (737 family)
SW Strategies (cont.)
Fierce cost controls & no frills (no
assigned seats, no onboard food, direct
ticket sales, ticketless travel)
Differentiate through focus on operations,
service, people, culture
Foster good labor-management relations
Expand later, including in East
Aggressive fuel hedging
Southwest Airlines Performance
Started 1971
Profitable in 1973 and 36 consecutive
years since
Only one of top ten profitable after 9/11
2001-2005: $2.1 B profit while ten largest
lost $59 B
2008: # 267, $11 B sales, $178 M profit
while ten largest lost $4 B
Highest market cap of any airline
64 cities in 32 states
481 planes (various 737 versions)
Strike-free after 36 years of operations
High on Fortune’s “best to work for” lists
and various lists re customer satisfaction
S&P report 7/22/09 said: We believe LUV
is the financially strongest U.S. airline. It
has posted 36 consecutive years of
profitable operations, and we see the
quality of those earnings as high. In
addition, LUV has ample cash, and its
debt to total capitalization is significantly
below peer levels, by our analysis. We
think these measures warrant a premium
valuation to peers and the S&P 500.
Strategic Management Process
Strategic Management Process
DIAGNOSIS
FORMULATION
IMPLEMENTATION
Question Where are we (the Where do we
org. in context of need/want to go?
its environment)?
How do we
get there?
Output
Successful
implementation
(implementation plan,
for this course)
Set of critical
issues (CIs) plus
understanding...
Strategy-level
recommendations
to ensure success &
address the critical
issues
St. Mgt. Process: Diagnosis
Identify & critique current mission,
objectives, & strategies
Analyze external & internal environments
to evaluate performance plus identify
SWOT & CIs
External: competitive environment (5-force
model) + societal environment
(political/legal, technological, economic,
sociocultural) + stakeholders
Process: Diagnosis (cont.)
Internal functional areas: financial;
marketing; production/operations;
technology; organizational
No set protocol. Do what is necessary to
understand & develop CIs. Analysis is a
means to this end
Both immediate and long-range problems.
ID causes rather than symptoms
Process: Formulation
Formulate rich range of alternatives
Evaluate alternatives
Select a set
Need clear recommendations with
supporting justification
May revise mission, objectives, strategies
Three levels of recommendations:
corporate, competitive, and "other"
Process: Formulation (cont.)
Recommendations should be:
– Effective in solving problems
– Practical
– Feasible
– Cost-effective
– Acceptable to key stakeholders
Is vital to ensure that all CIs have been
addressed adequately
Process: Implementation
Plan is a set of basic action steps addressing: what,
how, who, where, when & why - is necessary to
make the strategy work
Resources (financial, human, physical,
technological)
Obtaining & maintaining support for changes
Reward systems
Timing (especially sequencing & constraints)
Organization structure
Tracking & control systems
Leadership, managing change
Strategic Management Process
DIAGNOSIS
FORMULATION
IMPLEMENTATION
Question Where are we (the Where do we
org. in context of need/want to go?
its environment)?
How do we
get there?
Output
Successful
implementation
(implementation plan,
for this course)
Set of critical
issues (CIs) plus
understanding...
Strategy-level
recommendations
to ensure success &
address the critical
issues