Mgt. 458
Decision Making and Creativity
Rex Mitchell
Fall 2011
Some Questions
What is decision making?
What is a “good” decision?
Distinction between decision making and
problem solving?
Decision Making and Problem
Solving
Decision making: the process of arriving
at an outcome that meets objectives
(and does not cause more problems)
Problem solving involves decisions,
although not all decisions involve
problems
Creativity is important in decision making
and problem solving
Critical/strategic thinking is also important
There is considerable transferability of
decision making skills
All of us can improve our creative decision
making skills
What is a “problem?”
A problem is:
A discrepancy between an existing and a
desired state of affairs
A puzzling situation that needs to be
understood or explained
Course Overview
Decision making (broadly)
Critical and strategic thinking
Creativity
Different Types of DM/PS Models
Programmed -- non-programmed
– e.g., policies & procedures vs. unique onetime situations
Rational -- intuitive -- combinations
– e.g., “Data” -- Deanna Troy -- Picard
– Combinations have many advantages
Basic Decision Making Model
1. Recognize a problem or dm situation
2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives,
constraints, factors, priorities)
3. Generate alternatives
4. Evaluate & choose
5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate)
6. Stabilize & learn from
Engage with the readings
What seems important here, what do I like,
agree with, find useful? Why?
– Highlight, make margin notes
How might I apply one or more concepts in my
life – now and in the future?
Are there things I disagree with and/or would
modify or expand on? Why? How?
Is important to create your own reading notes or
concept map
Basic Decision Making
Process
Basic Decision Making Model
1. Recognize a problem or dm situation
2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives,
constraints, factors, priorities)
3. Generate alternatives
4. Evaluate & choose
5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate)
6. Stabilize & learn from
A Decision Frame
Creating a context for the decision
Recognize the real problem, not just
symptoms
Objectives
Constraints & other factors
Priorities
Framing
Provides context for discussion, decision,
or negotiations
Selecting & emphasizing certain aspects
Excluding or minimizing others
Clarifying objectives and constraints
Frames differ among individuals
Can be used to distort and mislead
Framing Examples
The America I know and love is not one in
which my parents or my baby with Down
Syndrome will have to stand in front of
Obama's 'death panel' so his bureaucrats
can decide whether they are worthy of
health care
Over the time that President Obama has
been in office, we have lost 2.5 million free
enterprise system jobs, and, yet, 500,000
federal government jobs have been
added.
Social Security and its attendant Medicare
are broken and bankrupt systems because
we, as voting citizens, have allowed
congress to transform these systems from
insurance programs to entitlement
programs
Defunding ObamaCare is essential to the
economic survival of the United States. The
federal healthcare takeover offers no
solutions to the cost issues or quality of
care issues, related to healthcare. One
needs look no further than Massachusetts,
to know that nationalized healthcare will not
work. Rationing healthcare will put huge
segments of America’s population at risk.
Different Frames for One Situation
Things are so uncertain with our business,
we'd better not "rock the boat!"
Our business is in such a nose dive, we
must do something different right away or
we will lose it all!
Our business has major troubles. We
need some help in diagnosing the
problems and developing solutions.
Critical and Strategic
Thinking
Critical Thinking Q’s
- Browne & Keeley
1. What are the issues and the conclusions?
2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions?
3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous?
4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions about
value priorities?
5. What are the descriptive assumptions?
6. How good is the evidence?
7. What significant information is omitted?
8. Are the statistics deceptive or misleading?
9. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning?
10.Are there rival causes, i.e., other explanations or
interpretations of the evidence or these findings?
11.What other reasonable conclusions are possible?
Note, especially…
1. What are the issues and the conclusions?
2. What are the reasons supporting the
conclusions?
5. What are the descriptive assumptions?
11. What other reasonable conclusions are
possible?
Some Un-critical Thinking
Heavier-than-air flying machines are
impossible.
– Lord Kelvin-British mathematician, physicist, and president
of the British Royal Society, c. 1895.
A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is
outside the range of probability.
– Harvard Economic Society-Weekly Letter November 16,
1929
More Un-critical Thinking
Gone with the Wind is going to be the
biggest flop in Hollywood history.
– Gary Cooper, 1937, after turning down the role of Rhett
Butler
They couldn't hit an elephant at this
dist_____
– General John B. Sedgwick-Union Army Civil War officer's
last words, uttered during the Battle of Spotsylvania, 1864
Some Common Fallacies
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
Slippery Slope: assuming that a proposed step will set off an uncontrollable chain of undesirable
events
Searching for Perfect Solution: unwilling to solve part of a problem
Equivocation: using a key word with two or more meanings in an argument
Appeal to Popularity : falsely assumes that something favored by a large group is desirable
Appeal to Questionable Authority: citing an authority who lacks special expertise on the issue at
hand
Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged language to distract from relevant reasons and
evidence
Straw Person: Distorting one’s opponent’s point of view so that is it easy to attack
Attacks: Attacks a person or a person’s background, instead of the person’s ideas
Either-Or: assuming only two alternatives
Wishful Thinking: assuming that, because we wish X were true or false, then X is indeed true or
false
Explaining by Naming: assuming that a name for some event or behavior adequately explained
the event
Glittering Generality: Use of vague emotionally charged words
Red Herring: An irrelevant topic is presented to divert attention from the original issue
Begging the Question: an argument in which the conclusion is assumed in the reasoning.
Hasty Generalization: drawing a conclusion about a large group based on experiences with only
a few members
Faulty Analogy: using an analogy in which there are important relevant dissimilarities
Causal Oversimplification: explaining an event by relying on causal factors that are insufficient…
Confusion of Cause and Effect: confusing the cause with the effect of an event
Neglect of a Common Cause: failure to recognize that two events may be related because of a 3rd
factor
Post Hoc: assuming that a particular event, B, is caused by another event, A, simply because B
follows A in time.
Note, especially…
1. Slippery Slope: assuming that a proposed step will
set off an uncontrollable chain of undesirable
events
3. Equivocation: using a key word with two or more
meanings in an argument
6. Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally charged
language to distract from relevant reasons and
evidence
12. Glittering Generality: Use of vague emotionally
charged words
20. Post Hoc: assuming that a particular event, B, is
caused by another event, A, simply because B
follows A in time.
The Socialist Democrat Establishment of
America wants to shut Pro-American
Voices Up!
(on a tee-shirt, with this capitalization)
The history of forcing fluoride on humans
through the fluoridation of drinking water is
wrought with lies, greed and deception.
Governments that add fluoride to drinking water
supplies insist that it is safe, beneficial and
necessary, however, scientific evidence shows
that fluoride is not safe to ingest… The lies of
the benefits of water fluoridation will continue to
be fed to the public, not to encourage health
benefits to a large number of people, but to profit
the military-industrial complex.
(2009)
Some questions & fallacies





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What are the issues and the conclusions?
What are the reasons supporting the
conclusions?
How good is the evidence?
Equivocation: using a key word with two or
more meanings in an argument
Appeals to Emotions: using emotionally
charged language to distract from relevant
reasons and evidence
Causal Oversimplification: explaining an event
by relying on causal factors that are
insufficient…
Obama's got a health care logo that's right out of
Adolf Hitler's playbook ... Adolf Hitler, like Barack
Obama, also ruled by dictate.''
—Rush Limbaugh, Aug. 6, 2009
''If ObamaCare passes, that free insurance card
that's in people's pockets is gonna be as
worthless as a Confederate dollar after the war
between the states -- the Great War of Yankee
Aggression.''
The number one economic threat to our nation
and our well-being is the price of a gallon of gas.
We as individuals and our nation are at risk. We
have watched the price of gas sharply increase
and to this day our Congress has done nothing
or even indicated they have a plan. The quickest
and most helpful thing Congress can do to
reduce the price of gas right now is to lift the
moratorium on drilling for oil in the U.S. and
offshore. Drilling offshore can be done safely
now! Other nations are doing it now! (2009)
Strategic Thinking
1. Identify & focus on important issues
2. Select key, relevant information
3. Recognize systemic properties
4. Understand through:
– Distinguishing causes from effects
– Clarifying (tacit) underlying assumptions
– Considering issue in a larger context
– Maintaining a long-term view
Strategic Thinking (cont.)
5. Appreciate implications & consequences
6. Generate alternatives & evaluate
objectively
7. Integrate logical/rational &
creative/generative thinking
8. Remain flexible
9. Act in the face of emotional discomfort
Another View of Strategic Thinking
Thinking more deeply to distinguish
underlying causes and issues from more
obvious symptoms
Thinking more broadly to recognize
systemic linkages, interactions, and
patterns
Thinking long-term as well as short-term
about implications and consequences
Strategic Thinking Case
Apply strategic thinking to the case,
making notes for yourself
Discuss in groups
Report out with total class discussion
Critical Thinking Q’s
- Browne & Keeley
1. What are the issues and the conclusions?
2. What are the reasons supporting the conclusions?
3. Which words or phrases are ambiguous?
4. What are the value conflicts and assumptions about
value priorities?
5. What are the descriptive assumptions?
6. How good is the evidence?
7. What significant information is omitted?
8. Are the statistics deceptive or misleading?
9. Are there any fallacies in the reasoning?
10.Are there rival causes, i.e., other explanations or
interpretations of the evidence or these findings?
11.What other reasonable conclusions are possible?
Recent Examples
Basic Decision Making Model (again)
1. Recognize a problem or dm situation
2. Frame the problem/decision (objectives,
constraints, factors, priorities)
3. Generate alternatives
4. Evaluate & choose
5. Implement & evaluate results (iterate)
6. Stabilize & learn from
A Decision Frame (again)
Creating a context for the decision
Recognize the real problem, not just
symptoms
Objectives
Constraints & other factors
Priorities
Framing Exercise
Off-shore oil drilling is a hot topic
A 1962 federal law largely prohibits offshore drilling,
except in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and
parts of Alaska and California
1990, Bush Sr. issues executive order banning other
drilling. Clinton reissued it.
July 2008, Bush Jr. issues executive order lifting the
ban
April 20, 2010, BP’s rig explodes, starting spill
April 20, Obama orders 6-month moratorium on drilling
Many moves & proposals +/- since then
Framing Exercise
In groups, develop frame:
– Objectives
– Main factors, priorities, & constraints
considered
– Selective arguments put forth
One of:
– (1) Oil company CEOs
– (2) Obama & administration
– (3) Business-friendly republicans
– (4) Environmental advocates
Since objectives are an important
part of decision making, let’s
consider them further
Objectives (aka Goals)
“If you don't know where you're going, you
might wind up somewhere else.” (Yogi Berra)
Define goals in terms of results and
outcomes, not actions
Frame as positive results to be achieved
rather than problems to be avoided
Distinguish among interests, objectives (=
goals), strategies, positions, & actions
Several Types of Objectives
Content
Relational
Identity (self-esteem)
Process
….CRIP
Goals and Interests
Interest: underlying need, desire, or
concern
Goal (objective): desired outcome or result
Strategy: method for achieving a goal
Position: stated action, result, or proposal
Action: specific steps taken
Is This an Interest, Objective,
Strategy, Position, or Action?
Make $60,000 this year
I need more money with the arrival of a
second child
I think I deserve a 7% salary increase
I will first try to negotiate an increase in my
salary, then, if necessary, I will search for a
second part-time job
Contact the placement office in my
professional society re part-time jobs
Increase profits to $1.58/share for this
year
We need to hire more workers
Impress the division head
Good Objectives
Consistent with mission & values
S.M.A.R.T.
– Specific
– Measurable (or verifiable)
– Agreed upon by key stakeholders
– Realistic and achievable
– Time- and cost-bound
Case on framing & generating
alternatives
Visualization
Visualization
Self-fulfilling prophecies
Pygmalion effect, plus or minus
We tend to create negative images
Replace with intentional, positive images
Can help in many ways, e.g.:
– Public speaking
– Stress reduction
– Various aspects of decision making
– Difficult interpersonal interactions
– Health…
Argue for your limitations and, sure
enough, they’re yours.
Richard Bach
The greatest discovery of my generation is
that human beings, by changing the inner
attitudes of their minds, can change the
outer aspects of their lives.
William James
Visualization Exercise
Identify a specific future situation in which
you want to perform effectively
Get very comfortable and relaxed
Visualize moving yourself through space and
time to be in that future situation
With you in that situation performing
effectively and the situation playing out
positively
– Experience it, not observe or think about it
– With input to all senses: sight, hear, smell, feel, taste