Title
Adapting to climate change:
measuring progress
Adaptation Sub-Committee
Progress Report 2011
Lord Krebs Kt FRS
14 July 2011
Extreme weather events are in the
headlines
2
Adaptation Sub-Committee
Lord John Krebs
Chairman
Dr Andrew
Dlugolecki
Established by Climate Change Act
2008 to:
• advise on preparedness of UK
for climate change
• monitor progress in adaptation
Sir Graham
Wynne
Dr Sam
Fankhauser
Prof Martin
Parry
Prof Jim Hall
Prof Tim Palmer
Prof Anne
Johnson
3
ASC’s second progress report
•
Measuring progress in
adaptation (indicators)
•
Focus on three priority
areas
•
Advise on Climate
Change Risk Assessment
(CCRA)
www.theccc.org.uk/reports
4
ASC ladder: indicators of preparedness
Vulnerability to
current climate and
future climate
Uptake of low-regret
actions
Accounting for
climate change in
long-term decisions
5
Indicators: development in flood risk areas
Type
Indicator
Impact
Insurance claims for weather
related causes
Trend
Vulnerability New dwellings built in areas of
high flood risk
Action
Uptake of resilience measures in
new build
Builds on original work by AEA Technology (2011) for ASC
6
Focus of the second report
ASC’s adaptation priorities
Land use planning
Providing national
infrastructure
Managing natural
resources
Designing and
renovating buildings
Assessed in this report
Land use planning
Managing water resources
Design and renovation of
residential buildings
Emergency planning
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Land use planning
8
Change 2001 – 2011 (%)
Development in flood risk areas continues
River/coastal flood risk areas
Surface water flood risk areas
All areas
Source: Arup (2011) for ASC
9
Hard surfacing is increasing at expense of
urban greenspace
% Change in 2001 – 2011
Natural area
Mixed use
Man-made surfaces
Source: Arup (2011) for ASC
10
Use of flood protection measures in new buildings
Source: Arup (2011) for ASC
11
Additional households protected
Increased protection from flood defences
Source: Environment Agency (2011)
12
% Change in developed area
But residual flood risk still increasing in sampled
locations
Source: Arup (2011) for ASC
Environment Agency Flood risk category
13
Managing water resources
14
Security of supply index
Security of water supply has improved, but
with continued environmental cost
Source: From data reported to Ofwat (‘June returns’).
15
Without adaptation, there could be
deficits in some parts of country
>30% deficit
20 – 30% deficit
> 30% surplus
20 – 30% surplus
10 – 20% deficit
10 – 20% surplus
0 – 10% deficit
Zones in
deficit or
surplus (2035)
0 – 10% surplus
Source: ASC calculations based on revised Water
Resource Management Plans 2009.
16
Water companies plan a mix of supply and
demand measures to close the gap
Millions of litres
Thames Water
preferred plan
Source: ASC presentation of
Thames Water data extracted
from WRMP
17
There is scope to increase action on demand
Our economic analysis suggests that it is cost-effective to reduce demand
to 115 litres per person per day in the South East
18
Uncertainty is not fully factored in to water
resource planning
2020s
medium
low
medium
Projected
deficits
2050s
high
2080s
high
Deficits
Groundwater
Adaptation
pathways
Pathway 1
Pathway 2
Pathway
Pathway 33
Source: Atkins (2011) for the ASC and Thames Water.
19
Designing and renovating
buildings
20
Low-regret opportunities for adaptation –
water efficiency measures
Cost-benefit ratio
New build
Retrofit
End-of-life upgrade
Rain water
system
Grey water system
Low-water
washing machine
Click-lock taps
New build package at
zero additional cost:
115 l/person/day
1
Ml/year
End-of-life upgrade at zero additional
cost: Low-flow shower, taps, WC
Dual-flush WC
85 l/person/
day standard
Source: Davis Langdon (AECOM)
(2011) for the ASC
Summary of headline messages
UK is coping with current climate variability
Some sectors are near the limits and vulnerability is likely to increase
Low-regret actions could be taken now
Long-term decisions not fully incorporating climate
adaptation
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Opportunities for National Adaptation
Programme
ASC Priority
Key Barriers
Opportunities
Land use
planning
• Not accounting for long –
term costs
• Insufficient guidance
• Localism Bill
• National Planning
Policy Framework
Managing water
resources
• Planning not factoring in
full range of climate
uncertainties
• Weak signals to encourage
sustainable abstraction
• Water White Paper
• Price Review 2014
Design and
renovation of
residential
buildings
• Lack of information,
available capital or
incentives
• Future reviews of
Building Regulations
• Green Deal
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Adaptation Sub-Committee
http://www.theccc.org.uk
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Development in flood risk areas continues
East Riding
Kingstonupon-Hull
Increase in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011)
Decrease in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011)
Source: Arup (2011) for ASC
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