Safe operating spaces for regional rural development John Dearing Geography and Environment UN Development Information Day 24th October2012 HUMAN DEPRIVATION ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION Raworth 2012 DEPRIVATION AND DEGRADATION Land-water conflicts Can we devise a tool that allows us to plan for sustainable development within safe environmentalFood limits? price crises Raworth 2012 Planetary Safe Operating Spaces Abrupt changes Humanity has already exceeded safe limits for biodiversity, nitrogen cycle and climate…..idea based on typology of ‘abrupt changes’ or ‘tipping points’………. Rockström et al 2009 Nature 461, 472-475 Scheffer et al 2001 Nature 413, 591- 596 Nine planetary boundaries http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/ policy/safe-and-just-spacehumanity Raworth 2012 Living in a doughnut- a safe and just space for humanity Raworth 2012 Falling far below the social foundation Raworth 2012 How to combine these together at regional scales? Use socio-economic records and national/international norms to set ‘social foundation’ But how to set regional boundaries for biophysical conditions? How to define a regional boundary? a y Background state Distance from background Rate change (1st derivative) Undesirable state Boundary = x times background Boundary = dy/dt Maximum limit b Normal variability Minimum limit Boundary = x times variability (z score units) c Increasing variability Boundary = rising variance/skewness/autocorrelation d State 1 Boundary = threshold condition/ tipping point Threshold/fold bifurcation/alternative states State 2 t Dearing et al unpub. ESPA Yangtze Nanjing Shanghai Can we define a regional safe operating space that defines biophysical boundaries for sustainable economic development? 250 km Lower Yangtze basin: provisioning and regulating services 1900-2010 1Lake sediment recordsregulating services 0.9 Trade-off between agricultural intensification and ecological degradation 0.8 Normalized value 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Evidence for improved regulating services since 2000 as provisioning services decline Water quality Sediment quality Soil stability 0.3 0.2 Air quality Total crop yield Oil crop yield 0.1 0 1900 Official statistical recordsprovisioning services Aquatic yield 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Dearing et al 2012 PNAS Zhang et al in manuscript Lower Yangtze basin: early warning signals of lake ecosystem collapse Tipping point passed early1990s 1 Normalized value 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 No obvious single driving force GDP Fertilizer usage 0.2 0.1 0 1900 Standard deviation Population 0.5 Aquatic ecosystem 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1.2 1 Early warning may be possible for other lakes that are not nutrient enriched Rising variance from the 1960s 0.8 0.6 2010 0.4 0.2 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Zhang et al in manuscript Wang et al 2012 Nature ‘Poverty stricken’ Shucheng County Social foundation nearly reached, except sanitation Environmental ceiling exceeded for water quality, soil stability and air quality Potential conflict between the needs for new sanitation measures and treatment of existing water Can food demands from growing urban areas be met locally? Ke Zhang 2012 Conclusions Creation of ‘Safe and just operating spaces at regional scales’ are feasible but more research needed to assess biophysical boundaries; Long environmental records allow assessment of ‘limits’, ‘boundaries’, ‘tipping points’ In Chinese studies, lake sediment records are particularly useful for showing early warning signals of lake ecosystem collapses; Thanks to everybody at the Safe Operating Spaces workshop, especially Kate Raworth, Ke Zhang and Rong Wang. Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA), Evidence and Impacts Research Grant programme ‘ Safe operating spaces for regional rural development: a new conceptual tool for evaluating complex socio-ecological system dynamics’; Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation Programme (ESPA), Programme Framework Grant ‘ Poverty and ecology: developing a new evolutionary approach ’ (NERC project no. NE/I002960/1); International Geosphere-Biosphere (IGBP), Directorate IPO, Stockholm. Programme