Hedge Fund Betas - Premium Wealth Management

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P

ORTFOLIO

D

ESIGN:

B

EYOND

T

HE

T

RADITIONAL

PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL

Premium Wealth Management Conference, April 2012

For Investment Professional Use Only

The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by AQR Capital Management, LLC (“AQR”) to be reliable. However, AQR does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does AQR recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document has been provided to you in response to an unsolicited specific request and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation, to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. This document is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by AQR Capital Management, LLC, and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document is subject to further review and revision.

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AQR Overview

Global Equity

$10.3 B

Total Assets $50.6 B *

US Equity

$2.5 B

Other Long-Only

Equity

$1.1 B

International Equity

$9.2 B

Alternative

Strategies

$27.5 B

Risk Parity

$12.8 B

Alternative Investment Strategies $27.5 B*

Multi-Strategy

$4.4 B

Global Macro

$2.2 B

Managed Futures

$2.4 B

Event Driven

$3.2 B

Equity-Related

$2.4 B

* Approximate as of 2/29/12, includes assets managed by CNH Partners, an affiliate of AQR.

1

The Evolution of Portfolio Construction

Traditional Approach

• Start with a limited set of assets

• Allocate capital to them

• Find managers for each asset class and allocate capital to them

• Investment objective: allocating capital to assets with high expected return subject to a risk limitation, try to add some alpha

Beyond the Traditional Approach

• Seek out as many market exposures as possible

• Allocate risk, not necessarily capital, to them

• Use active management only where managers have unique skill

• Investment objective: building the most efficient portfolio

 Today’s Agenda

• Look at ways of moving beyond the traditional approach, including a focus on “hedge fund beta”

2

Beyond the Traditional Approach

Skill

Dynamic

Exposures

Market Exposures

Examples

• Skill-Based Active Strategies (“Alpha”)

• Exposure Timing Strategies

• Market-Independent

• Carry Trades

• Pure Value

• Pure Momentum

• Systematic Arbitrage Strategies

• Hedge Fund Beta

• MSCI World

• Barclays Aggregate

• Emerging Equities

• Commodities

3

Portfolio Construction: Market Exposures

Objectives of Market Exposures

Include a broad range of different asset classes around the globe; goal should be to maximize diversification – the only free lunch in finance

Provide long-term positive expected returns as compensation for holding risky assets; expected returns for each asset are commensurate with their expected risk

Portfolio Theory

Diversify Broadly

Implementation

Set a broad investable universe including as many asset classes as possible

Diversify Risk Risk budgeting to target how much portfolio risk should come from each investment

Maximize Efficiency Find the most efficient portfolio and scale it to include the desired level of risk

Diversify Through Time Maintain risk level and diversified exposure in all market environments

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

4

1. Diversify Broadly

Equity Exposure

Developed

• Australia

• Spain

• Japan

• France

• Netherlands

• Hong Kong

• Switzerland

• United Kingdom

• Germany • United States

• Italy

Mid Cap

• United States

Small Cap

• United States

Emerging

• China • South Africa

• India • Singapore

• South Korea • Taiwan

Interest Rate Exposure

Developed

• Australia

• Europe

• United Kingdom

• Japan

• United States

Emerging

• Czech Republic

• Hong Kong

• Hungary

• South Korea

• Poland

• Singapore

• South Africa

Inflation Exposure

Inflation Linked Bonds

• France

• United Kingdom

• United States

Commodities

• Corn

• Wheat

• Copper

• Lead

• Nickel

• Zinc

• Gold

• Silver

• Cocoa

• Coffee

• Cotton

• Soybeans

• Aluminum

• Crude Oil

• Brent Oil

• Gas Oil

• Heating Oil

• Natural Gas

• Live Cattle

• Feeder Cattle

• Lean Hogs

• Sugar

Credit/Default Exposure

Credit Spreads

• United States – Investment Grade

• United States – High Yield

Emerging Currency Forwards

• Brazil

• Israel

• Mexico

• Turkey

• South Korea

• South Africa

• Singapore

• Taiwan

Comm Mort-backed Spreads

• United States

The above exposures are for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change at anytime. Please read important risk disclosures in the Appendix.

5

2. Diversify Risk

Investors tend to view portfolio diversification in terms of asset allocation

• A portfolio with a balanced asset distribution is perceived as diversified

Below we illustrate the significant equity risk in a traditional capital allocation portfolio

In risk terms, this portfolio is actually very concentrated as equity risk dominates the portfolio due to the greater volatility of stocks versus other asset classes

Capital Allocation

Risk Allocation

Risk Allocation (New Approach)

Equities

Private Equity

Bonds

Real Estate

Hedge Fund of Funds

60% Equity Capital 89% Equity Risk

The above risk exposures are based on AQR volatility and correlation estimates and are for illustrative purposes only. Please read important risk disclosures in the Appendix.

6

3. Maximize Efficiency

Maximize Efficiency

Find most efficient portfolio (greatest return per unit of risk)

Lever (or de-lever) that portfolio to desired risk level

Most Efficient

Portfolio

Most Efficient

Portfolio

Leveraged to

60/40 Risk Level

Benefit of Risk Diversification and Efficient Portfolio

Construction

60%/40%

Stocks/Bonds

100%

Emerging

Equities

100%

Stocks

100%

Commodities

Benefit of Broad and

Global Diversification

100%

TIPS

100%

Bonds

Risk-Free

Rate

Volatility

Leverage has risks, so does concentration: trade off a risk you don't get paid enough to bear for one you do!

The above chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of an actual portfolio. Please read important risk disclosures in the Appendix.

7

Beyond the Traditional Approach

Skill

Dynamic

Exposures

Market Exposures

Example

• Hedge Fund Beta

8

How Alpha Becomes Beta

Over time, an increasing proportion of returns can be explained and attributed to systematic risk factors:

Time

ALPHA

ALPHA

ALPHA

Prior to Cap-Weighted

Equity Indices

– Returns viewed as alpha

ALPHA

EQUITY RISK

PREMIUM

Equity Risk Premium introduced

Examples:

– S&P 500 Index

– MSCI World

OTHER MARKET

RISK PREMIA

EQUITY RISK

PREMIUM

Other Market Risk

Premia introduced

Examples:

– Commodity Indices

– Real Estate

HEDGE FUND RISK

PREMIA

OTHER MARKET

RISK PREMIA

EQUITY RISK

PREMIUM

Hedge Fund Risk

Premia introduced

Examples:

– Merger Arbitrage

– Convertible Arbitrage

Portfolio Construction: Dynamic Exposures

Objectives of Dynamic Exposures (“Hedge Fund Betas”)

Capture the fundamental insights of a range of active management strategies – along with a meaningful portion of the risk premium those strategies earn – using a dynamic but clearlydefined investment process

Avoid the drawbacks of high fees, long lock-ups, low transparency and high leverage associated with hedge funds, which have historically been the predominant source of dynamic exposures for institutional investors

D ynamic

E conomically intuitive

L iquid

T ransparent

A lternative

10

It’s Not All Alpha

Hedge funds have high and increasing levels of passive market exposure

Popular Hedge Fund Indices’ Correlations with MSCI World

(Rolling quarterly hedge fund index returns)

Since

Inception

(’94-’10)

10Yrs

(‘01-’10)

7Yrs

(‘04-’10)

5Yrs

(‘06-’10)

3Yrs

(‘08-’10)

Dow Jones Credit Suisse

Hedge Fund Index

0.65

0.84

0.90

0.89

0.90

HFRI Hedge Fund Index 0.82

0.93

0.94

0.94

0.95

Source: DataStream, Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index (data from January 1994 – December 2010) and HFRI Hedge Fund Index (data from January 1990 – December 2010).

Past performance is not an indication of future results.

11

A Closer Look

α

Unique Alpha

What’s inside

Hedge Funds?

β

Market Beta

Something Else

(Systematic Exposures)

Hedge Fund Betas:

The common risk exposures shared by hedge fund managers pursuing similar strategies.

12

Hedge Fund Beta Everywhere

Event

Driven

Fixed Income

Relative Value

Convertible

Arbitrage

Managed

Futures

Equity

Market

Neutral

Global

Macro

Dedicated

Short Bias

Emerging

Markets

Long/Short

Equity

Please read important risk disclosures in the Appendix.

13

Where Do Alternative Returns Come From?

Relative Value Strategies

• Identify mis-priced assets (some priced too high, others too low)

• Seek positions that will profit when appropriate prices are achieved; structure to help minimize market exposure

• Example: equity market-neutral

Arbitrage Strategies

• A special case of relative value – shorter horizon / clearer mis-pricing

• Often liquidity providing

• Example: merger arbitrage

Timing Strategies

• Short-term views on the direction of an asset

• Harder to hedge, but a valuable skill if one can identify trends or other predictors

• Example: managed futures

14

Why Might Alternative Returns Exist?

Liquidity Needs

• Companies need financing on good terms (convertible arbitrage)

• Supply and demand for capital not always balanced (carry trades)

Risk Aversion

• Investors don’t want to wait for mergers to close (merger arbitrage)

• General aversion to short stocks (short bias)

Suboptimal Investor Behavior

• Slow reaction to news, tendency to sell winners (managed futures)

• Avoid investments with bad news / poor results (value)

Manager Expertise

• Some people may be able to predict the future better than others

15

Allocations to Hedge Fund Betas

Portfolio construction should lean towards equal risk weighting

Investors should make adjustments to reflect the leverage, liquidity and expected efficacy of each strategy – beware of the left tail!

Rebalancing is a “contrarian” approach that can help avoid overcrowded strategies

Strategic Risk Allocation For A Multi-Strategy Dynamic Return Source*

13%

7% 11%

13%

16%

11%

10%

7%

12%

Convertible Arbitrage

Event Driven

Fixed Income Relative Value

Dedicated Short Bias

Equity Mkt Neutral

Equity Long/Short

Global Macro

Managed Futures

Emerging Markets

* Example above is based on AQR estimates and is for illustrative purposes only. Please read important risk disclosures in the Appendix.

17

Hedge Fund Beta is Different

Investment

Process

Implementation

Rebalancing

Market Beta Hedge Fund Beta

Single asset class, generally cap-weighted

Multiple strategies, each with a unique weighting system; cap-weighting does not apply

Buy-and-hold strategy, long-only

Infrequent trading, holdings change slowly

Dynamic strategies trading a range of asset classes and instruments, long and short; infrastructure is critical

Frequent adjustment to positions as market conditions change; must manage t-costs

18

…And it seems to work

Hypothetical Gross Returns of a Hedge Fund Beta Portfolio and Hedge Fund Indexes – 1994 through 2011

$800

$700

$600

Hypothetical Hedge Fund Risk Premia Portfolio

DJ CS Hedge Fund Index

HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index

MSCI World Index

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$-

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Hypothetical Hedge Fund Risk Premia Portfolio

Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index

HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index

MSCI World Index

Gross

Return

(pa)

11.9%

9.4%

5.9%

6.5%

Volatility

(pa)

5.9%

7.6%

6.1%

6.4%

Sharpe

Ratio

1.5

0.8

0.4

0.5

Hedge

Correlations

MSCI

Fund

Risk

World

Index

Premia

Portfolio

(01/94 -

03/11)

MSCI

World

Index

(last 5 years)

1.0

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

1.0

0.2

0.8

0.8

1.0

* The Hypothetical Hedge Fund Risk Premia Portfolio is based on AQR proprietary datasets and run to an annualised volatility target of 6% and employs, on average, leverage of 2 per side (i.e.. for $100 investment, the portfolio will purchase roughly $225 securities long and sell short $175 worth of securities). The underlying 9 hedge fund strategies (noted on slide 13 ) are roughly equal risk-weighted, and the backtest accounts for transaction costs by incorporating estimates of both commissions and potential market impact. Returns, volatilities and correlations are annualised figures based on monthly return data and are all denominated in USD.

Please see important disclosures relating to hypothetical results at the end of this document.

Beyond the Traditional Approach

Examples

• Skill-Based Active Strategies (“Alpha”)

• Exposure Timing Strategies

• Market-Independent Skill

Dynamic

Exposures

Market Exposures

20

Portfolio Construction: Skill Exposures

Objectives of Skill Exposures

Deliver exposure to investment managers’ ability to either time different markets or select specific securities

Provide unique, diversifying return streams; may require longer lock-up periods and use of leverage

Capacity Focus on large-scale sources of manager skill

Correlation

Diversification

Contrarian

Liquidity

Active strategies should have low correlation to traditional markets

Find managers with different expertise and strategies that are differentiated

Acting against trends and conventional wisdom is a form of skill

Get paid for your long-term horizon by providing liquidity when it is in short supply

21

Conclusion: Beyond the Traditional

Portfolio construction focuses on allocating risk to three return sources:

• Skill

• Dynamic Return

Market Return

Risk parity offers an alternative to over-reliance on equities for market return

Hedge fund beta provides a new approach to dynamic strategies that had previously been offered only through active managers / hedge funds

Add as much alpha as you can find, net of fees and factors

22

Appendix – Performance Disclosures

AQR Capital Management, LLC (“AQR”) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services License under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). AQR is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") under United States of America laws, which differ from Australian laws. Please note that this document has been prepared in accordance with SEC requirements and not Australian laws.

The information set forth herein has been provided to you as secondary information and should not be the primary source for any investment or allocation decision. Please obtain the advice of your fiduciary prior to any investment. The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed by AQR to be reliable.

However, AQR does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor does AQR recommend that the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. This document has been provided to you solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer, or any advice or recommendation, to purchase any securities or other financial instruments, and may not be construed as such. This document is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by AQR, and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The information contained herein does not constitute legal, tax or accounting advice or investment advice and is solely based on the opinion of AQR of which no expectation of compensation will be derived. The recipient should conduct his or her own analysis and consult with professional advisors prior to making any investment decisions. Any investment made will be in the sole discretion of the reader.

Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

Gross performance results do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees, which would reduce an investor’s actual return. For example, assume that $1 million is invested in an account with the Firm, and this account achieves a 10% compounded annualized return, gross of fees, for five years. At the end of five years that account would grow to $1,610,510 before the deduction of management fees. Assuming management fees of 1.00% per year are deducted monthly from the account, the value of the account at the end of five years would be $1,532,886 and the annualized rate of return would be 8.92%. For a ten-year period, the ending dollar values before and after fees would be

$2,593,742 and $2,349,739, respectively. AQR’s asset based fees may range up to 2.85% of assets under management, and are generally billed monthly or quarterly at the commencement of the calendar month or quarter during which AQR will perform the services to which the fees relate. Performance fees are generally equal to 20% of net realized and unrealized profits each year, after restoration of any losses carried forward from prior years. In addition, AQR funds incur expenses (including start-up, legal, accounting, audit, administrative and regulatory expenses) and may have redemption or withdrawal charges up to 2% based on gross redemption or withdrawal proceeds.

Please refer to AQR’s ADV Part 2A for more information on fees.

Hypothetical performance results (e.g., quantitative backtests) have many inherent limitations, some of which, but not all, are described herein. No representation is being made that any fund or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently realized by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect actual trading results. The hypothetical performance results contained herein represent the application of the quantitative models as currently in effect on the date first written above and there can be no assurance that the models will remain the same in the future or that an application of the current models in the future will produce similar results because the relevant market and economic conditions that prevailed during the hypothetical performance period will not necessarily recur.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. Discounting factors may be applied to reduce suspected anomalies.

There is a risk of substantial loss associated with trading commodities, futures, options, derivatives and other financial instruments. Before trading, investors should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if the proposed trading style is appropriate. Investors should realize that when trading futures, commodities, options, derivatives and other financial instruments one could lose the full balance of their account. It is also possible to lose more than the initial deposit when trading derivatives or using leverage. All funds committed to such a trading strategy should be purely risk capital.

Convertible bond securities may be considered illiquid securities, which cannot be sold or disposed of in the ordinary course of business at approximately the prices at which they are valued. Difficulty in selling securities may also result in a loss or may be costly to the portfolio.

23

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