2011 year of carbon price, says PM
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/mp/8407606/2011-year-of-carbon-price-sayspm/
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has vowed there will be nowhere to hide on
carbon pricing with a firm and final decision next year.
In a speech to the Council for the Economic Development of Australia in
Sydney, Ms Gillard outlined an ambitious agenda for the remainder of her
term, declaring 2011 a year of delivery and decision.
She said Australians wanted their government to govern.
Ms Gillard said the government had to decide a way of pricing carbon that
was supported by a broad enough consensus to be legislated.
She said the government's Climate Change Commission would carry out its
task of bringing together expert opinion and public attitudes.
As well, the Productivity Commission would publish advice on the measures
being taken by trading partners and impacts of a carbon price on Australian
international competitiveness.
Ms Gillard said the multi-party climate change committee would meet
increasingly regularly through the year.
"Expert papers are already being released publicly and discussed in the
committee," she said.
"I promise you, no responsible decision maker will be able to say next year
that they need more time or more information on climate change," she said.
"In 2011 there will be nowhere to hide."
Ms Gillard said Australia had weathered the global downturn.
An alternative view of climate hazard:
the basis for policy?
Professor Bob Carter
James Cook University
Townsville, Australia
Global Warming Policy Foundation
1 Carlton House
London SW1Y 5DB
Nov. 30th, 2010
CONTEXT – is late 20th C temperature unusual?
The last 6 million years – ODP Sites, Central Pacific Ocean
ICEHOUSE
WARM
~100 C
COLD
Diagram courtesy Alan Mix, Oregon State University
CONTEXT – internal climate variability
and multi-decadal oscillations
Averaged data points
Raw data points
40 C
Expanded scale
After Richard Lindzen
US Congress, Nov. 2010
0.60 C human?
0.90 C natural
CONTEXT – internal climate variability
The thickness of the red line represents the range of the global
mean temperature anomaly over the last last century.
After Richard Lindzen
US Congress, Nov. 2010
Long-term Arctic air temperature
trend follows a ~60-year periodicity
St. Petersburg Arctic & Antarctic
Research Institute
I.E.Frolov,
Z.M.Gudkovich,
V.P.Karklin,
Ye.G.Kovalev,
V.M.Smolyanitsky
•
Over the next 10-20 years, Arctic air
temperature will DECREASE …..
.
…. and the sea ice-cover of the north
polar ocean will INCREASE.
CONTEXT - human influence
1. Warming (UHI)
Australia
Melbourne CBD
Hughes, W.S., 1991. The Australian record
on global warming. Tasman Institute.
CONTEXT - human influence
2. Cooling (land-use changes)
So what is the net human
temperature influence …. worldwide?
Western Australia: wheat belt
CONTEXT – horizontal (latitudinal) change in temperature
280
8
0
~180 C in 3000 km
200
~10 C /150 km
10
0
100
30 temperature contours
CONTEXT – vertical change in temperature
(moist) lapse rate = ~60 C/km
~60 C km
~0.60 C /100 m
So – take your dog for a morning walk up a 100 m high hill and the
temperature will have changed as much as it did in the whole 20th C.
CONTEXT: CO2 – levels through time
280 ppm (or even 390
or 560 ppm) indicates
CO2 starvation
compared with the
geological past
CONTEXT: NOBODY LIVES IN A “WORLD CLIMATE”
Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate
classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633-1644, 2007.
Is there then a REAL
climate problem?
You bet.
Climate hazards stem from LOCAL geographic setting
HERE, THEN, IS THE REAL PROBLEM
http://www.news.com.au/gallery/0,23607,5037339-5006020-10,00.html
BLACK SATURDAY – February 7, 2009
But are these
WEATHER or
CLIMATE events?
47 inches of rain (1.2 m) in 7 days
(more than 6 inches/day)
GIANT STORM ANDREW, OCTOBER 16, 1987
Worst storm since 1703; 22 deaths; + Burns’ Day storm in Jan. 1990
VOLCANIC
ERUPTION
NEW ZEALAND NATURAL HAZARDS
Mt. Ruapehu
EARTHQUAKE
Wellington Fault
400 m
NZ
Risk of
major costs
risk
UK
Earthquake
Volcanic eruption
Tsunami
Landslide
Storm damage
Flooding
Bushfire
**
*
UNPREDICTABLE
Climate change
Sea-level rise
**************
are just the same!
UNPREVENTABLE
NZ
GeoNet
5 out of the 9 hazards are
climate-related events
(i) GeoNet is already world best practice – tailor-made to advise on longer term climate change hazard also; (ii) Next, one last thing
ABRUPT, NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE
WARM
Temperature difference
Summer 40 C, Winter 280 C
3
60
HOLOCENE
Younger Dryas
LAST GREAT
GLACIATION
Antarctica
Greenland
COLD
25000 Age (years before 1960)
0
J. P. Steffensen et al., 2008. High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in
Few Years. www.sciencexpress.org / 19 June 2008 / Page 1/ 10.1126/science.1157707.*
ABRUPT NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE
is the dangerous hazard
Climate change, both
warming and cooling,
is a NATURAL HAZARD
on ALL time scales
Map reconstructions after Broecker, W.S., 2006. Abrupt climate change revisited, Global and Planetary Change
doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.06.01
POLICY: IPCC PLAN A – “STOP” GLOBAL WARMING
Cost – Benefit Analysis
Aus. Govt.
$3,000/family/yr
NEW TAXES
IPCC
T
-0.002o C
$-Squillions
POWER & INFLUENCE
U.K Govt.
*£1,200/family/yr
NEW TAXES
WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE AND WHAT ARE THEY LOOKING FOR?
*UK - Estimated initial costs of CO2 measures (“Climate Change Act”) is £18 billion/yr
CO2 taxation will result in NO measurable climate effect.
To finish - you often hear it said that climate change is a moral issue
The opportunity cost of feckless spending on an ETS
Corbis Bettmann, Borgen Project
$60 billion/year
“All that is necessary for
the triumph of evil is that
good men do nothing”
(Edmund Burke, attributed)
Feckless: Lacking purpose or vitality; feeble or ineffective. Careless and irresponsible
.
Let’s finish by asking a really simple question ….
Will 2020 be ….
like the Little
Ice Age?
• No-one knows!
• We need to prepare for either.
• Plan-A (IPCC) hasn’t worked,
won’t work and can’t work.
What’s Policy Plan B?
.………… Or, instead, the
Mediaeval Warm Period?
The world won’t be
“saved” by Plan A
(ETS: stop global warming)
1854
Brave; and futile
Policy Plan B is
ADAPTATION
(1016-1035)
Stupid; and futile
Read all
about it
here !
Is today’s rate of temperature change
unusually high?
From the distribution of δ18О for the last 50,000 years from the GISP2 ice-core
RATE of temperature change
over 100-yr intervals
+
2.50
-
LAST 5,000 YEARS
After NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004
Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
6. CUTTING CO2 EMISSIONS WILL CAUSE NO
MEASURABLE CHANGE IN FUTURE CLIMATE
Doubling CO2 from the pre-industrial
level will cause a T increase of ~10 C.
The warming effect
of extra CO2
70% of this theoretical rise in
temperature has already occurred.
(window paint)
CLAIMED NATURAL RANGE
(from ice core data)
“Glacial”
“Interglacial”
(pre-industrial)
TODAY
DOUBLING
Slide after David Archibald, April, 2007
The Present and Future of Climate
560
TEST 3
TIMING OF INDUSTRIAL CO2 OUTPUT v. T-CHANGE
Little relationship exists
between CO2 and T change
over the last 150 yrs
After: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual?
The last 5 thousand years – Greenland Ice Core
BC | AD
Egyptian (Menes)
1st Unified
Kingdom
Warm Period
Little
Ice
Age
WARM
10 C
COLD
Egyptian
Old Kingdom
Minoan
(5&6 dynasties) Warm Period
Warm Period
Late-20th C
Mediaeval
Roman
Warm
Period
Warm
Period
Warm Period
Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records
from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp. 552-554.
Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
PART 1: CONTEXT
Is the Temperature Warming or Cooling?
Temperature trends from Greenland ice core data – the last 17,000 years
HOLOCENE
PLEISTOCENE
WARM
22
~100 C
1
COLD
16 000
14 000
12 000
10 000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1. Warming since 16,000 yr BP
6
3
2. Cooling since 10,000 yr BP
3. Cooling since 2,000 yr BP
3
(Christian Era)
44
4. Stasis since 700 yr BP
5
(Little Ice Age cycle)
5. Warming since 100 yr BP
(recovery from LIA)
nss
6. Stasis since 1998
After Davis, J.C. & Bohling, G.C., 2001, The search for pattern in ice-core temperature curves. AAPG Studies in Geology 47, 213-229.
1. GLOBAL TEMPERATURE WARMED SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE 20th C
SATELLITE
2008
1979
385 (+15%) in 2008
CO2 = 335 ppm in 1979
deg. C anomaly
1.50
Lower atmosphere mean global temperature anomaly;
radiosonde record, HadAT2
WEATHER BALLOON
0.75
0.00
- 0.75
380
CO2 = 315 ppm in 1958
- 1.50
1960
1958
1970
1980
1980
1990
(+20%) in 2005
20002005
2. Global Temperature 2002-2006 -- COOLING
380
Solar minimum is
1000+ days late
CO2 = 365 ppm
in 1998
(i) As predicted (but NOT by the IPCC models); and (ii) not only not an unusual rate & magnitude, but actually no warming at all
4%
4a. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET
Holgate, S.J. 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century.
Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.1029/2006GL028492.
Av. = 1.6
a. The rate of sea-level change is NOT accelerating
4b. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET
Departure from the
long-term mean
b. The area of global ice cover is NOT in dangerous decline
4c. WE LIVE ON A DYNAMIC PLANET
Maue, R.N., 2009. Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical
Research Letters 36, L05805, doi:10.1029/2008GL035946.
c. The number/intensity of tropical storms is NOT increasing
The yearly amount of damage inflicted by hurricanes in the United States, 1900-2000
after normalizing for population growth, wealth, and inflation. (from Pielke, Jr., 2002).
T-Rex
Measurement
error
The 5 climate data
points of meteorology
Bias error
Station coverage
error
THIS SCIENCE IS INDEED SETTLED:
The 6 most important facts are these
• Global temperature warmed slightly in the late 20th C.
• 20th C warming was not unusual in either rate or magnitude
• Global average temperature has declined since 1998;
atmospheric CO2 has increased by 5% since 1998.
• Humans have an effect on local climate
• We live on a dynamic planet; ice
volume, sea-level, storm intensity
all change - ALL the time.
• CO2 is a mild greenhouse gas.
PAUSE 1
How on earth has it come about that ……. ?
How did all this happen - 2?
International environmental lobby groups
Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF)
US$487 million
Greenpeace
US$272 million
(46% individuals, 20% governments/aid agencies, 6% corporations)
2002
Australian political party funding
Electoral Commission, 2002
Labor Party
$35.6 million
Liberal Party
$35.02 million
National Party
$9.46 million
TOTAL
$80
million
4
How did all this happen - 4?
“The task of climate change agencies is not to persuade by
rational argument. ... Instead, we need to work in a more
shrewd and contemporary way, using subtle techniques of
engagement. ... The ‘facts’ need to be treated as being so
taken-for-granted that they need not be spoken.”
“Ultimately, positive climate behaviours need to be
approached in the same way as marketeers approach acts
of buying and consuming. ... It amounts to treating climatefriendly activity as a brand that can be sold. This is, we
believe, the route to mass behaviour change.”
No conspiracy, but Nero is fiddling while Rome burns
Costs of the Carbon Dioxide Charade
(You pay: climate doesn’t notice)
Western aid demanded of $300 billion by China/India
($1,900/yr/US family); and $267 billion by African countries.
UK. Estimated initial costs of CO2 taxation (“Climate Change Act”) is
£324-404 billion (£16,000-20,000/family/yr).
USA. President Obama’s CO2 tax (“Cap ‘n Trade”) will initially cost
approaching $2 trillion ($4,500 extra costs/family/yr).
Australia & NZ. CO2 taxation (“ETS”) will initially cost
about $3,050 and $2,340 family/yr, respectively.
Spain. Since 2000, each job created in the alternative
energy industry has cost US $774,000 and been
accompanied by the loss of 2.2 conventional jobs.
THE COALITION OF WARMAHOLICS
Alarmists and lobbyists for a CO2-trading system
1. Greens & NGOs (who started it) – power, influence
2. Governments & politicians – who seek election by
winning the swinging voters in marginal seats
3. Bureaucracies (IPCC, AGO) – budget maintenance
4. Scientists - $10 billion in research funding annually
5. Church organisations – desperate for “relevance”
6. Alternative energy providers – rent seeking
7. Carbon indulgences industry – moral piety
8. Big business & financiers – who seek planning
certainty; CO2-trading is a ticket-clipper’s dream
9. Education system – remorseless environmental
guilt awakening in children
10. The media (who relentlessly maintain the alarmism)
- sells advertising, and makes them feel good
PAUSE 2
CONSENSUS - 1
“Consensus is the process of abandoning all
beliefs, principles, values and policies in
search of something in which no one believes,
but to which no one objects;
the process of avoiding the very issues that
have to be solved, merely because you
cannot (otherwise) get agreement on
the way ahead”.
Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years, p. 167.
Climate change policy:
a failure of duty of care
THE TIME FOR HEAD-BUTTING BETWEEN THE IPCC
AND INDEPENDENT SCIENTISTS IS LONG SINCE PAST.
New Zealand’s current Global Warming Policy
is based on sub-prime Science, sub-prime
Economics and sub-prime Politics
New Zealand needs a cost-effective, middleground National
Climate Policy to deal with ALL weather and climate hazards,
based upon sound science, sensible precaution and prudent
risk management (GCM computer modelling of climate is not predictive science)
Climate change must be recognized as similar to other
unpredictable, unstoppable natural hazards - volcanos,
earthquakes, tsunami, bushfires, sea-level change.
Adaptation to climate change is of the essence
PM – climate sceptics are “reckless and irresponsible”
WE AGREE ON THESE THINGS
• Humans cause local climate change.
(so there must be a global effect; all that’s in doubt is its sign and magntiude)
• Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas.
• Global climate is a non-linear (chaotic) system.
(So it is unpredictable)
• GCMs are useful heuristic, but not predictive, tools.
• Climate change has multiple causes
AND WE DISAGREE ON THESE
• There may be no warming since 1995/1979/1958/1940.
• Climate sensitivity is between 0.3 and 1.3 deg. C.
• The AGW signal is unmeasurable (lost in the noise).
(despite CO2 increases of 5%, 15% and >20%)
• The climate change we observe today results from natural forcings.
(which is the null hypothesis and remains unfalsified)
Top-ten “reach for your gun” phrases
When you hear one uttered, stop listening!
The science is settled …… there is a consensus that …..
He is paid by the fossil fuel industry …..
She works for a right wing/left wing think tank ……
He is just a climate sceptic; a contrarian …….
The “Pope” says so ……
The Precautionary Principle says that …….
The Kyoto Protocol is only a first (small) step …..
I understand climate change, let me explain ……
It’s just press irresponsibility (cf. smoking/lung cancer, HIV/aids) …..
Human-caused global warming has already been demonstrated …..
These arguments are used only to sidestep rational discussion; most often
by doctrinaire persons who are bereft of scientific reasons for their beliefs.
Walsh, K. et al. 2002
CSIRO Atmospheric Research
----------------------------------------------------------------------Important Disclaimer
This report relates to climate change scenarios based on
computer modelling. Models involve simplifications of the real
processes that are not fully understood.
Accordingly, no responsibility will be accepted by CSIRO or the
QLD government for the accuracy of forecasts or predictions
inferred from this report or for any person's interpretations,
deductions, conclusions or actions in reliance on this report.
---------------------------------------------------------------------On the back of the title page, in bold.
"Climate Change in Queensland Under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions"
Final Report 1997-2002, 84 pp.
Is today’s rate of temperature
change unusually high?
0C/100
1.6
yr
(Starting Year for all calculations is 1979)
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
After Roy Spencer, UAH
Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature change unusual?
The last 400 000 years – Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica
EVOLUTION OF POLAR BEARS
WARMER
THAN TODAY
HOLOCENE
TODAY
COLDER
THAN
TODAY
Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and
palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok
Station (East Antarctica). Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.
Slide after A. Illarionov, Powerpoint presentation, December 2004.
TEST 6
DOES THE PATTERN OF ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURE CHANGE MATCH THEORETICAL
PREDICTIONS OF GREENHOUSE WARMING?
CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change
RADIOSONDE DATA – NO GREENHOUSE SIGNAL
Will adhering to the Kyoto Protocol
cause a significant reduction in warming?
6 years’
grace
No. Kyoto will be utterly ineffectual in its climatic influence.
Is the magnitude of late 20th C temperature
change unusual (last 2000 yr, global average)?
A 2000-YEAR GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION BASED ON NON-TREE RING PROXIES
TEST 2e
Mediaeval WP
Little Ice Age
BUT WHAT ABOUT
THE LAST 500 YRS?
GRIP borehole T; pollen; Mg/Ca;
del-18O; lake diatoms; speleothems
(required: 20 dates over 2000 year period)
Data for this graph is online at <http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/>
SCIENCE PART 2
HOLOCENE-RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
7,500 yr of record from Scots pines, Finnish Lapland
2500 yr
Calendar chronology
Climate change, both
warming and cooling,
is a NATURAL HAZARD
CLIMATE FROM THE 7639-YEAR UNBROKEN SCOTS PINE TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY FOR FINNISH LAPLAND
Kari Mielikäinen et al., 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology, June 11-17, 2006, Beijing, China
TEST 5
DOES CO2 LEAD OR LAG
TEMPERATURE CHANGE?
In ice cores, changes in
T precede changes in
CO2 by ~800-2000 yrs.
CO2 does NOT force
temperature at the G/I scale
1 mm
DOME C
ICE CORE
ANTARCTICA
10 ka
20 ka
SOME BALANCE ON CO2 -PLANT STOMATA
.
Short-term variations
in abundance
280 ppm probably
NOT the interglacial
maximum
Fertilization effect
1885-2007
OTHER BENEFITS
OF CARBON
DIOXIDE
CO2 fertilization(x2)
Increases the mean
food crop yields
as follows:
Fertilization for
doubling to
600 ppm
Wheat
Legumes
Other cereals
Fruits
Tuber crops
Vegetables
60%
62%
70%
33%
67%
51%
WHAT IS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY - CO2 v. TEMPERATURE
After Schwartz, S., 2007, Heat capacity,
constant
and sensitivity
of –Earth’s
climate
system. MODTRANS
Graph time
provided
by Willis
Eschenbach
University
of Chicago,
Journal of Geophysical Research, in press.
1AR
2AR
3AR
4AR
0
~ 14.5
C warming
About
60 C
warming
3.0
2.1
2.0
0.1
Equilibrium sensitivity given as increase in global mean surface
temperature that would result from sustained doubling of atmospheric CO2
Comparison of trends in surface air temperature and ocean heat content
-- 1.1 deg. C increase for CO2 doubling
-- Atmospheric time constant for CO2 is ~5 yrs
Is Extreme Weather really Increasing?
Natural disasters of all
causes, including nonweather-related events.
Ref: “Availability and Affordability of
Insurance Under Climate Change: A
Growing Challenge for the U.S.”,
December 2005, Mills et al.
Commissioned by CERES.
ALL THAT THE IPCC HAS LEFT IS THE
MODELS, AND THEY SAY ……
Lucia Liljegren at The Blackboard - http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/ipcc-projections-overpredict-recent-warming/
Empirical Predictions of Future Climate
Based on the last 140 years of surface temperature data
(i) Here’s why it’s idiocy; (ii) context; (iii) what does it predict?
3. UNIVERSITY
The hockey-stick
Michael Mann & co-authors
Steve McIntyre
Michael Mann
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/UN_open_letter.pdf
The letter details some of the serious science
misrepresentations in the IPCC Summaries for
Policymakers, calls attention to the outdated nature of
some IPCC conclusions, and shows that balanced
economic analyses do not support measures to
restrict energy consumption for the purpose of
diminishing CO2 emissions.
The signatories explain further that the current UN
approach of curbing CO2 emissions is likely to
increase human suffering from future climate change
rather than to decrease it - because attempts to
drastically cut CO2 emissions will seriously slow
development.
103 signatories, including:
President, World Federation of Scientists – ZICHICHI
Director of a national research funding agency (Australian Research Council) – AITKIN
Director General of a comprehensive national research agency (NZ DSIR) – KEAR
Laureate of the UNEP Global 500 environmental program – BRYSON
Recipient of Mills Medal in Cloud Physics (Royal Meteorological Society) – AUSTIN
Recipient of Chapman Medal (Royal Astronomical Society of London) - AKASOFU
Recipient of Meisinger and Charney Awards (American Meteorological Soc.) – LINDZEN
Recipient of the Max Planck Medal – DYSON
Distinguished Emeritus Professors – 24 in total
IS THIS ALL A SECRET!
-150 -125 -100 -75
Last Interglacial
125,000 years BP
-50
-25
0
Last
Today
Interglacial 2°C warmer than
today - with
Hippopotamus
inhabiting the
River Thames
Warm
Cold
Warm
+25
Key findings from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WMO UNEP
R.K. Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC; Director-General, TERI
Sacramento, California Air Resources Board, 27th June 2008
Remember – IPCC set up to investigate human-caused warming – (i) warming at alarming rate, magnitude; (ii) caused by CO2; (iii) will go on doing so
4b. WORLD MAGAZINES & PRESS
The
Balanced
Free Press
1987
1989
2001
2008
2006
2007
5e. A JOB IN BIG BUSINESS?
“WHILE the debate among scientists about climate
change continues, it is unimaginable to conclude
otherwise than that the pumping of a massive
amount of carbon into the atmosphere is damaging
our planet and potentially endangering future
generations”.
The Australian Oct. 28, 2006
Lysenkoism
(USSR, 1930s-1960s)
Trofim Lysenko, and Soviet science, rejected the “dangerous
Western concepts” of Mendelian genetics and Darwinian
evolution. They preferred Lamarckian views of the inheritance of
acquired characteristics; for instance, that cows could be trained
to give more milk and their offspring would then inherit this trait.
1. Necessity to demonstrate the practical relevance
of science to the needs of society (ARC box – CRCs etc.)
2. Amassing of anecdotal evidence to show the “correctness”
of the concept as a substitute for causal proof
(Gore film; incessant NGO activity)
3. Manipulating data to support the cause, which is seen as
a higher truth (Mann Hockey Stick; CCSP; IPPC)
4. Ideological zeal, such that dissidents are silenced as “enemies
of the truth” (attacks on sceptics; the 5 Rules of Propaganda)
Claus, G. & Bolander, K., 1977, Ecological Sanity, David McKay, New York.
THE FIVE RULES OF PROPAGANDA
1. Simplification: reducing all data
to a simple confrontation between
'Good and Bad', 'Friend or Foe'.
2. Ad homination: discrediting
criticism or opposition by use of crude
personal smears and parodies.
3. Transfusion: manipulating the
consensus values of the target
audience for one's own ends.
4. Popularisation: presenting one's
viewpoint as the unanimous opinion of all
right-thinking people: use of star-performers,
social pressure, and 'psychological
contagion‘ to convince waverers.
5. Repetition: endlessly repeating the
same messages in different ways.
Amended after Norman Davies
"Europe: A History"
“The essence of propaganda consists in
winning people over to an idea so
sincerely, so vitally, that in the end they
succumb to it utterly and can never again
escape from it.”
Joseph Goebbels, 3rd Reich
Minister of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda
BENEFITS OF CARBON DIOXIDE
Over the last 100 years there has been
an increase of ~100 ppm in the level of
CO2 in the atmosphere.
http:www.co2science.org/subject/p/summaries/population.htm
Between 1950 and the early 1990s, world population X2.2, food production X2.7
1970-2000 saw a 15% per capita increase in fodd consumption
Projected warming from a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 by 2100
After Roy Spencer - http://www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htm
Mr Justice Barton
UK High Court
DROUGHT
End of LIA
McCulloch, M. et al., 2003, Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef
since European settlement. Nature 421, 727-730.
Temperature curve, last 10,500 years
Greenland Ice Core
Holocene Climatic Optimum
3. UNIVERSITY
The hockey-stick
Michael Mann & co-authors
Steve McIntyre
Michael Mann
THE ESSENCE
NATURAL climate change is
the REAL danger; it demands
preparation for AND a
planned response
The needed response is NOT
global; it needs to be tailored
to the appropriate region
Nations each require their
own “EMA” or “HazNet”
HYPOTHETICAL human-caused
climate change, should it occur,
is automatically accommodated
BUT
Illustration: Gerrit van der Lingen, 2008
W. Gong, and Z. Hao (2006), A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of
summer rainfall over eastern China, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024804.
NOBODY LIVES IN A “WORLD CLIMATE”
Peel, M. C., Finlayson, B. L., and McMahon, T. A.: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate
classification, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1633-1644, 2007.
Equatorial
Tropical
Grassland
Desert
Temperate
Climate hazards stem from LOCAL geographic setting
Wind
Speed
(knots)
50
Wind
Dir’n
N
N wind
S wind
change
W
30 knots
25
S
E
0
N
Remember, bushfires, storms and landslides are
going to continue to occur in 2020 - either way.
Plan B MUST be adaptation to climate change
as it happens (hazard precaution; GeoNet).
THE
END
Science reality
Virtual reality
Socio-political reality
The way forward