Steele on Intelligence
What can we know, how?
Reflections on the near future.
Google versus the CIA—Five Year Outlook
Robert David Steele Vivas
Hackers in Santa Cruz
13 November 2005
A copy of these slides are at www.oss.net
Modern IO Portal Page Dated Today (Last Link)
Baseball Analogy
Harnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
Potential Earnings I
Ad Hoc Information Purchase Curve for Current
Western Base of Individual Users Only
10 25 50 1C 2C 3C 5C 1K 2K 3K 5K
This is an ugly best guess at what the Google population would spend, per year, if they
could do one click information purchases from multiple sources--you do the math….
Federal Marketplace
State & Local Marketplace
US Spends Today: $5000M
50 States Spend Today: $0
Needs to Spend: $1.5B
Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds
($30M/state) for 50 Community
Intelligence Centers/networks
Other Governments Should Spend
an Equal Amount.
TOTAL: $4B/Year
Others should follow along.
TOTAL: $3B/Year
Corporate Marketplace
Associational Marketplace
Multinationals Today: $25B
UN, Red Cross, others: $100M
• Mostly “BI” or IT internal DM
Need to Spend: $1B+
• Mediocre sense-making or
external à la carte small stuff
Need to GIVE Google: Raw information
Small Business Today: $1B
Should Increase by 10X
TOTAL: $250B/Year
Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence
are the Wild Cards--potential for Google
customers alone is $8B on a bell curve
from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the
average.
Plan for the Briefing
1000 Sunday Where GIS Was
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
4 minutes on State of the World and the US
4 minutes of where Google appears to be
4 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker)
4 minutes on sources in context
4 minutes on emerging technical standards
4 minutes of ethics and morality
4 minutes on the White Paper for OSIS-X
4 minute wrap on saving Google from itself
World War III Players
NationStates
Private
Sector
Bacteria
Citizens
Gangs
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green
Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Has actually gotten better, the UN, although corrupt, is working!
Pol Terror Level 3
Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4
Large numbers, torture
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Pol Terror Level 5
Entire public, no limits
Ethnic Fault Lines 2000
18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
Water & War
Hyper-Arid
1
3
4
Arid
5
Semi-Arid
6
Sub-Humid
Water
Pollution
2
Source: The State of the World
Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Ethnic Conflict 18
Genocides Today**
Food Security
33 Countries
Resource Wars, Energy
Waste & Pollution**
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
What I Told Congress & US1:
You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But
Reality is Interested in You
Of course no one listened. We have to shake the people
awake and teach them that information is power.
Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time,
and space. Information can create stabilizing
indigenous wealth.
Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs
destroy this option.
Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent
The Google Legacy
• Supercomputer
• 1/3rd rack cost, optimized
LINUX for speed—10X
performance @ half price
• Plug in racks/centers
• Inherent back-up
• Geospatially aware
• Open Office soon?
• Going to hand-held as
global access point
State of the Art
•
•
•
•
Will blow through these
It’s not about separate sources anymore
It’s not about human reading anymore
It’s about integrating everything:
–
–
–
–
Collecting relevant offline information
Machine-aided collation & exploitation
Connecting experts and their students
Presenting the information is a compelling way
OVERVIEW
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest
FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360
Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your area of interest
FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION
See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention
FOCUS ON A PERSON
Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details
GET NEW INSIGHTS
This is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools
READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT
Anything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied
Silobreaker Advances on Google
• This costs $400 a year at full price.
• Offered at $200 until the end of the year.
• Test it free for seven days by following the
link at www.oss.net.
• This has been my secret weapon for years,
now we are commoditizing it and moving
on to more complex challenges—creating a
World Brain.
Sources
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
All information, all languages, all the time
Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy
185 languages, 33 of them “core”
12 relevant dialects of Arabic
Must follow television, radio, audio, street
80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC
Cannot be made sense of by single individual
Global Intelligence Failure
Breakdown in Collection and Understanding
Digital
English
Language
Oral/Unpublished
NRO
NSA
Foreign
Languages*
Analog
FBIS
UN/STATE
CIA/DO
Cascading Deficiencies:
1) Don’t even try to access most information
2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital
3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and
twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.
Global Processing Failure
Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
More Satisfying
50%
0%
Less Costly
Does Not Exist
OSINT
HUMINT
STATE
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
50%
Seven Views of Reality
Not sharing, not listening, costs us.
Religions
& Clans
National
NGO &
Media
Military
Academic
Law Enforcement
Business
New Craft of Intelligence
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
I
IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
II
III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
Technologies
• Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access
• XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data
smart—the context is in the content
• IBM just linked DB2 with Google
Enterprise—when we add CISCO AON and
CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally
distributed instantly exploitable World Brain
• Foreign language man-machine networks and
distributed advanced analytics will add value
• Gaming, not reports, will rule
Five Technical Trends
• Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including
streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware
receipt of relevant intelligence
• Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put
industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA,
Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead
• Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug
Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at
the paragraph level
• Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still
pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic
knowledge that is original
• Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for
safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.
Ethics & Morality
• Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be
ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq
• Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy
• Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not
just by governments but by corporations
(Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals),
and religions (Catholic Church)
• Secrecy undermines social understanding of
reality and allows rich to steal from the poor
A Revolution is Underway
Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible
TOP-DOWN
COMMAND & CONTROL
OLD
SINGLE-CULTURE
SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS
DECIDE
SECRET
SOURCES & METHODS
OBSCURE DETAIL
TIME
IMPACT
SHORT
TIME
IMPACT
LONG
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OPEN
SOURCES & METHODS
PEOPLE
DECIDE
MULTI-CULTURAL &
TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
NEW
BOTTOM-UP
INFORMATION-SHARING
Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity
• World War III will be fought in the hearts and
minds of teen-agers
• Half the brain—the half that can understand
“other” views—dies by the age of 35
• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and
35—that’s when the brain matures
• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a
belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural
and religious paths chosen by others over the
course of centuries.
Reality Won’t Go Away
• End of cheap oil cascades across everything
• End of free water is actually a bigger threat
• Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease
could rebalance populations
• Rise of crime and corruption reflects the
failure of all governments, including USA, to
adapt to fast-changing real world issues
• Collective popular intelligence is in a race for
life, a race that will determine our future.
Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By
Changing When & How We Intervene
• Public warning can
change public policy
–
–
–
–
–
–
More Prevention
More Peacekeeping
More Education
More Long-Term Aid
Less Corruption
Less Censorship
We have a sacred duty.
Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible
IV - Organizational Intelligence
Out-Sourcing of
Information
Processing
Organizational
Memory System
EXTERNAL
CHUNKS
(Intellectual Property)
Patents, Etc.
Data
Visualization
III - External Information
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Government Monitoring
E-Commerce
TECHNICAL
Automated Analysis
Project/Group
Management
Heterogeneous
Search & Retrieval
Data
Conversion
Vendor Reporting
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Expert Hires
“Just Enough,
Just in Time”
Business
Intelligence
Institutionalized
Local
Knowledge
HUMAN
Training
Personal Brand
Cell #
Churning
(Rotationals)
Internal Reporting
PERSONALITY
(Insight/Intuition)
Trip
Reports
INTERNAL
I - Knowledge Management
II - Collaborative Work
The Open Loop / Unclassified System:
Open Sources
(Completely unconstrained
random sources with random
training and experience; with
native language and area
experience; and orthogonal to
the common “correct” DoD/
Intel analysis and reporting)
Global Sources
Only Total
Access to All
Data and
Analysis from
All Sources
will Validate
Specific Data
Global Language
and Area Analysis
(Open market access to global domain
expertise, and language/area expertise
To review, integrate, synthesize, report
From accurate real time details and context;
With direct access to sources/authors;
From the “street corner not the cubicle”)
(Open access to web, on-line,
broadcast, published, posted
sources internal VPNs; From all
sources, from all points of view,
and all authors; Expressed in
real time, in geo spatial terms,
and local context.)
Multiple Global
Language Sources
(Foreign language sources captured and
processed; and indexed and available
directly in the vernacular language and
dialect; With accurate details and context;
and access to sources and authors)
We need to live in the Real World of Open Sources and Open Analysis
DB2/OmniFind
Client Standard
Management Hub
IR&D Funding
Cleared Multi-Lingual Operational Support in the Field
Google Enterprise
Googleplex Leased
See Sub-State Slices
+
Content-Based Routing
PDA & Disk Level Security
Overnight Hard-Copy from Everywhere
“Inside the Book” and
Migrate Toward Localized Digitization Ranking Applied to Foreign
OSINT Pioneer
Decision-Support Pioneer
+
+
Data Mining Pioneers
Networking Pioneer
Global Geospatial Pioneer
Sehda
S-Minds
OSINT-DS Toolkit & Sources
Anonymous Access
Chief Scientist & Architect
+
Machine Translation Pioneer
Hand-Held C4I Terminals
Installed Base Anonymizer
Influentials by Name
Education Everywhere
All Levels
United Nations
Law Enforcement
All NGOs, World Bank, IMF
Beginning with Interpol
and drilling down locally
Goal is all UN information including
Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open
in all countries, we
field reports in real time, beginning
research information including all student dissertations
give them OSIS-X
Journalists
with complex PKI of DoD interest
to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit
free to obtain
and networking of all NGO
(registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “
privacy OK &
We get their organizations
eyes & ears on the ground.
by name” into the global network. All students everywhere
protection
to pay for access, but we
are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct
world-wide.
find a way to recruit
1PB/Yr 1
observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to
GWOT data
them as individuals
change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning,
benefits.
to meet our
5 PB/Yr 2
on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social
client needs
10 PB/Yr 3
networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on
on the side.
restoring education and research as the engines for wealth
production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we
focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.
Labor Unions & Religions
Citizens & Advocacy Groups
Pay with information
$1B/Yr 3
Pay with cash & information
$111B/Yr 10
U.S. Based Corporations
It’s no longer about the collection of information or
Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in
the communication of information. The next big
IT or KM, internally focused.
DoD
Spending $15B a year now on data
thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots
USG
mining and related IT-driven ideas.
to people, and people to people. We do this with
$250M/Yr 1
an intelligent network and a focus on semantic
Two tracks: one with our
10X DoD
team members and
web/synthetic information architecture technology,
$500M/Yr 2
their best big clients,
and the empowerment of individuals so that they
with 1-3 year
the other
$1B/Yr 3
can create and share knowledge in real time
commoditizing
without organizational, legal, security, cultural,
for small
lag
time.
$1B is half what USDI was
or language impediments.
businesses.
prepared to authorize at FOC
The next slide shows the OSS value concept,
the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED
for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs,
OSINT, & integrated man-machine OMB pursuing “common solutions”
approach. We give them our model,
Foreign Language Conversion in a
funded by DoD, for all of USG with
coherent manner that creates added
NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as
value for each contract, a compelling
the ultimate beneficiary. The language
sales point and a barrier to entry for our
capability can help us capture 911 now.
competitors who miss the big picture.
DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council
Side Benefit:
Provides USG
with global
cultural and
educational
leverage at
home and
abroad
Intelink-X
USA DGI, GIC, GSC
World Intelligence Network
Side Benefit:
Conflict
Deterrence &
Resolution via
Early Warning
& Information
Peacekeeping
USA Earns Nobels Across S&T
Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X
GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)
OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)
General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.
Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
Historical
Memory
3
2
1 Present
You Are
Here...
Near
Future
Far
Future
# = Your Top Issues,
Local, National, Global
Example 4. Global ST Community: Linking Science / Technology / Bio-Medical Expertise
What is our current scientific/technical TOPIC knowledge; and WHO are the EXPERTS?
Commercial
Science
Community
Corporate
Research
Traditional
Published
Journals
On-Line
Published
Journals
Content
Distributors
Individuals
Academic
Science
Community
University
Research
Professional
Societies
US NGO
Funded
Research
Global NGO
Funded
Research
Individuals
VPN & Internet Sources
USG
Science
Community
Science Regional Analysis
Affairs Bureaus & Policy
NIH
STAS
EA
NSF
OES
SA
DoD
NP
NEA
DoE
VC
AF
USDA
WHA
Other
Federal
& State
Agencies
EUR
USG VPN
IO
Intelligence
and
Research
CIA
Policy
Planning
Staff SP
NSA
DIA
IC
Legislative
Affairs
White
House
Liaison
State Department Networks
Semantic Architecture Network
Intel &
Analysis
IC Networks
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
Secrecy rules
Elites rules
Act on 2% of the info.
People complacent
Short-term view
Public
Memory
3
2
1 Reality
You Are
Here...
Unilateral militarism
Immoral capitalism
Big stick works BUT
Long-term cost not
visible to public
Foreign
Viewpoints
Gaming
Future
ROIs
Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
Revision Tracking
and Realtime Group
Review
Desktop
Publishing and
Word Processing
A
Collaborative
Work
B
C
Interactive Search
and Retrieval of
Data
Clustering and
Linking of
Related Data
Conversion of
Paper Documents
to Digital Form
Notetaking and
Organizing Ideas
Graphic and MapBased Visualization
of Data
Statistical Analysis
to Reveal
Anomalies
Automated
Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature
Production of
Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Structured
Argument
Analysis
Modeling and
Simulations
Detection of
Changing Trends
Processing Images,
Video, Audio,
Signal Data
Non-Text Data
Detection of Alert
Situations
Automated Extraction
of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing
and Converting
Data Formats
Restricted Information
SECRET BIG DATA
NOT SECRET BIG DATA
• NSA-NGA
• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…
• SAIC
• NASA , public geospatial
• HARRIS
• Factiva
• NG-MS
SECRET
DISTRIBUTED DATA
S
I
P
R
N
E
T
Open
Source
Information
System –
External
(OSIS-X)
• LEXIS-NEXIS
NOT SECRET
DISTRIBUTED DATA
• Intelink
• CISCO
• ARDA
• Google/Libraries
• ITIC
• Amazon Inside the Book
• JHU/APL
• Napster Plus
HUMINT
Point of
Entry Raw
Produces
Actionable
Intelligence
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT OSINT
OPS
OTHER
Dots need to be connecting at every level,
Including immediately upon ingestion.
Processed
Raw
OPINTEL
Finished
Intelligence
Policy
Package
Today, one third of the dots connect here.
(Collect 2/3rd, spill half—some say 80%)
Public
Perception
HUMINT SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT OSINT
OPS
OTHER
Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down
Open Literature
Conversion of
Paper Documents
to Digital Form
Automated
Foreign Language
Translation
Clustering and
Linking of
Related Data
Non-Text Data
Processing Images,
Video, Audio,
Signal Data
Statistical Analysis
to Reveal
Anomalies
Interactive Search
and Retrieval of
Data
Collaborative
Work
OLD:
Restricted Information
Automated Extraction
of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Detection of
Changing Trends
Graphic and MapBased Visualization
of Data
Notetaking and
Organizing Ideas
Desktop
Publishing and
Word Processing
Standardizing
and Converting
Data Formats
Detection of Alert
Situations
Modeling and
Simulations
Structured
Argument
Analysis
Production of
Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking
and Realtime Group
Review
Paradigm Shift in Information
• Dots don’t know they are secret until some
human decides this.
• Dots gain value from swarming, lose value
within compartmentation.
• Dots gain value from history and context.
• Dots gain value from speed of delivery.
• Dots in a foreign language are smarter.
Information for All Four Levels
Strategic
Planning
• History
• Context
Operational
Coordination
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
Tactical
Employment
This is about
information superiority
across the board, not
just enhancing allsource intelligence!
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
Acquisition
Design
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
Inter-Agency Collaboration
80% Unclassified Information
?
?
SERVICE
CLUSTER
INTELLIGENCE
CLUSTER
?
?
R2
NGO
CLUSTER
CG
J-2
J-3
SOJICC
J-1
MP
LEA
CLUSTER
?
J-5
CA
J-4
Eng
?
CIVIL
CLUSTER
?
J-6
IT
COALITION
CLUSTER
?
Teams Crossing All Boundaries
Expert Forum
Shared
Calendar
Distance
Learning
Shared
Rolodex
OPG
VPN
Shared
24/7 Plot
Virtual
Library
Virtual
Budget
Weekly Review
Google-India & World Brain
• Four OPENS
– Open source software
– Open source
information
– Open spectrum
– Open Hypertext
Document System
• We are close to both
victory & salvation.
• Centers in each region
• Unite the seven tribes
– Transnationally
– Locally
• Bottom-up people power
• He who enters data rules,
not he who hides or
manipulates data
• Openness is the antidote to
secrecy & corruption.
Do No Evil & Counter Evil
•
•
•
•
Taking money from US IC is very bad idea.
Poor people are the wild cards.
Foreign poor people are the best wild cards.
Beltway bandits are evil and the alternative to a smart,
moral, globally-responsible Google.
• Need to create global multinational intelligence sharing
network rather than augmenting national secret networks.
• It’s time for Google to grow up, scale up, and rule in a
United Nations/friend to all manner, NOT NOT NOT as a
secret ally of the U.S. Government. Cut the IC ties NOW.
Humble Suggestions for Google
• Buy Silobreaker, Vivisimo, & the Institute of
Scientific Information
• Partner with Amazon, FedEx-Kinkos
• Explode World Bank and UN Relationships
• Integrate CISCO AON and IPCIPS
• Replicate or cooperate with Skype
• Fund global man-machine foreign language
translation and advanced analytics network
• BE the Global Intelligence Network/World Brain
Spread the Word
Robert David Steele Vivas
CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.
Coach, Global Intelligence
Partnership (20
companies & rising)
Bear@oss.net
703.242.1700
Will speak for sushi.
Use MoveOn.Org OSINT
topic to organize
everywhere in the world