Economic globalization and global economic governance Federico Steinberg Outline Economic Globalization Economic and Political effects of globalization The challenge of global economic governance What is economic globalization? “A dynamic process of global economic integration characterized by increasing freedom in the movement of labor, goods, services, technology, and capital” (De la Dehesa, 2000). Increase in international flows of: Goods Services Capital Information ¿Migration? Trade and investment New global value chains: Example: Volvo S40 Immigration 3,5% of world population is migrant (220mn) Causes: labor shortage and ageing in OECD, abundance in developing countries Impact: higher employment rate, higher mobility and low unemployment rate in OECD countries Elements of conflict in the EU: Direct competition for jobs and ▼ wages Fear over the sustainability of the Welfare State Globalization • • Explanations: - Ideas - interests - Institutions - technology Is reflected in: - Deep economic liberalization - Incorporation of millions of people to the world economy, especially in Asia - Change in the balance of power Theoretical Economic implications of globalization Greater economical interdependence Better allocation of natural resources Greater opportunities of growth Higher speed in technological transfer But… Is globalization something new? Ratios of commercial and financial integration similar to the ones in 1900…BUT: New role of trade in services Intra-industrial trade Role of MNCs Higher financial interdependence: Importance of the portfolio investment flows Frequency of crisis: México 1994/95, Asia 1997, Brazil/ Russia 1998, Argentina 2001, CURRENT Role of emerging markets Rapid growth of emerging countries PIB en función del Poder de Paridad Adquisitivo Fuente: FMI 70% (% del PIB mundial) 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Economías Desarrolladas Economías en Vías de Desarrollo The emerging world is already larger than the advanced in GDP termsmore importantly in terms of GDP than the advanced Emerging markets re-emerge And the trend will continue But China is the convergence story But wait Size is not global presence, YET A new world map Social trends (I) Ageing Urbanization Social trends (II): Inequelity What is driving it? Will it generate a backlash against globalization? Social trends (III) New middle classes New opportunities for MNCs But products need to be costumized Growing energy demand Structural features and transformations of the world economy Convergence Multipolarity Interdependence Growing rivalry and competition Geo-economics and mercantilism/nationalism Crisis/transformation of global economic institutions New costs and risks… Less policy space for governments in economic policy: Short run adjustment costs: The Welfare State under pressure in rich countries Unequal opportunities in poor countries Higher unemployment/lower wages Sectorial restructuring, relocation and outsourcing Increased inequality Greater economic insecurity: Microeconomic level: personal economic risks Macroeconomic level: higher markets volatility and greater exposure to external shocks Political impact of globalization Diffusion of power in the world economy States lose power in favor of: Markets International economic institutions New non-state actors(MNCs, NGOs, mafia, …) sovereignty reduced BUT: States are still the main actor of IR The loss of power does not affect equally all countries This situation demands new global economic rules Global governance Increasingly globalized world economy + Economic Polices and Regulations still national + Unequal distribution of gains from globalization + Loss of sovereignty (and legitimacy) = CONFLICT (specially after the financial crisis) Need for new global rules Global Economic Governance (Everywhere?) Global Governance “Global governance refers to the creation of rules and the exercise of power on global scale […] Since there is no global government, global governance entails strategic interaction among entities that are not hierarchical distributed.” Robert Keohane Economic perspective: global governance focuses on providing global public goods: ¿WHICH No rivals in consumption ONES? Non excludible through prices With positive externalities and trans boundary effects In a multipolar world, without an hegemonic power, international cooperation is needed Problems and challenges (I) But since global governance is exercised from different areas it raises problems: It can be democratic or not Even if it is democratic, it will present accountability problems and “democratic deficit” Therefore, the challenge is to establish a global economic governance that allows: Taking advantage of globalization and reduce its adverse effects Distribute more fairly its benefits as to avoid a backlash against globalization Problems and challenges (II) Resistance to the transfer of sovereignty to supranational organisms US (Climate change, ICC, ODA, etc.) Emerging countries (¿irresponsible position?) European Union as a supranationality model? Problems and challenges (III) A more legitimate Long run perspective leadership (and effective) What role for the G-20? The global economic governance agenda Global Trade Governance – WTO Reform of the international monetary system Global imbalances, reserve currency, adjustment Development and fight against poverty (ODA, ODG and food security) Energy security and climate change International Migrations More equality in the distribution of income and opportunities?