Public Opinion
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Why are there so many polls?
Why the obsession with public opinion?
What is public opinion?
Are there too many polls?
Is our system too poll driven?
Gallup’s Gift to Democracy
• Elections are a poor
way of registering
public opinion.
• Opinion polls
determine people’s
collective will and
improve the
“efficiency of
democracy”
Public Opinion- a definition
• VO Key, "those opinions held by private
persons which governments find it prudent
to heed."
Do Americans believe the
Holocaust happened?
• 1993 poll, 22% of American public believed it
possible that Nazi extermination of the Jews never
happened, 12% unsure
• Roper’s Question—Does it seem possible, or does
it seem impossible to you, that the Nazi
extermination of the Jews never happened?
• Gallup-- Does it seem possible to you that the
Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened, or
do you feel certain that it happened?
What Makes a Good Poll?
• #1 Question wording does not bias the results
– "As you may know, in 1974 Jerry Springer, who had
gotten married six month earlier, was arrested on
morals charges with three women in a hotel room. He
also used a bad check to pay for the women’s services,
and subsequently resigned as mayor of his city. Does
this make you much more likely, somewhat more likely,
somewhat less likely, or much less likely to support
Jerry Springer for governor this year?"
– (This is “Push Polling”)
Question wording affects results
• Impeachment poll questions
– Should Clinton fight the impeachment charges
in the senate?
– Should Clinton stand and face trial in the
senate?
Wording dilemmas
• We are faced with many problems in this
country, none of which can be solved easily
or inexpensively. I’m going to name some
of these problems and for each one, I’d like
you to tell me whether you think we are
spending too much money, too little money,
or about the right amount.
– Welfare (62% say too much)
– Assistance to the poor (59% too little)
Unintentional Priming Effects
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Are you currently a college student?
How much is your annual tuition?
How many hours a week do you work?
Is federal aid for college education too low,
too high, or just right?
Wording Bias?
• Some people say the candidates should
accept the recount in Florida when it's
completed, even if they think the voting
there was unfair. Others say they should ask
the courts to consider whether the voting
was fair, even after the recount is
completed. What do you think - should the
candidates (accept the recount), or (ask the
courts to look into these other issues)?
Wall Street Bailout
• "As you may know, the government is
potentially investing billions to try to keep
financial institutions and markets secure.
Do you think this is the right thing or the
wrong thing for the government to be
doing?"
– Pew Research Center survey. Sept. 27-29,
2008.
Wall Street Bailout
• "The government has proposed using up to 700
billion dollars to shore up failing financial
institutions on Wall Street. Some people say it's a
bailout that those companies don't deserve. Other
people say it's necessary to protect the broader
economy. On balance, do you support or oppose
this plan?"
– ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Sept. 29, 2008.
• "As you may know, the Bush administration has
proposed a plan that would allow the Treasury
Department to buy and re-sell up to $700 billion
of distressed assets from financial companies.
What would you like to see Congress do: pass a
plan similar to what the Bush administration has
proposed, take action but pass something different
from what the Bush administration has proposed,
or not take any action on this matter?"
– USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 24, 2008.
• "Congress is working on a plan that some people
in the government say is necessary in order to
keep the nation's economy from worsening further.
The plan would include providing $700 billion of
government funds to financial service companies
who have lost money on extensive bad
investments and are in danger of going bankrupt.
Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea, or
don't you know enough about it to say?"
– CBS News/New York Time Poll. Sept. 21-24, 2008.
• "As you may know, the government is potentially
investing billions to try and keep financial institutions
and markets secure. Do you think this is the right thing
or the wrong thing for the government to be doing?"
Pew Research Center, 9/19
30
28
27
25
20
20
17
15
10
8
5
0
Strongly support
Support Somewhat
Somewhat oppose
Oppose Strongly
Unsure
"The government has proposed using up to 700 billion dollars to shore up failing financial
institutions on Wall Street. Some people say it's a bailout that those companies don't deserve.
Other people say it's necessary to protect the broader economy. On balance, do you support or
oppose this plan?“ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Sep 29, 2008
60
56
50
40
30
22
20
11
11
Not take any action
Unsure
10
0
Similar to Bush Proposal
Different from Bush
Proposal
"As you may know, the Bush administration has proposed a plan that would allow the
Treasury Department to buy and re-sell up to $700 billion of distressed assets from financial
companies. What would you like to see Congress do: pass a plan similar to what the Bush
administration has proposed, take action but pass something different from what the Bush
administration has proposed, or not take any action on this matter?“USA Today/Gallup
Poll
45
42
40
38
35
30
25
20
16
15
10
4
5
0
Good idea
Bad idea
Don't Know enough
Unsure
"Congress is working on a plan that some people in the government say is necessary in
order to keep the nation's economy from worsening further. The plan would include
providing $700 billion of government funds to financial service companies who have
lost money on extensive bad investments and are in danger of going bankrupt. Do you
think this is a good idea or a bad idea, or don't you know enough about it to say?“ CBS
What does the American Public Think?
60
57
50
45
40
30
22
20
16
10
0
Pew- right thing
ABC- support bailout
USA- support Bush
CBS- Good idea
How to be a Good Poll Consumer
• Who is asked
– the sample is drawn randomly
– Respondents are representative
– Screening questions.
• What is asked
– Unbiased questions
– Sequence order
• Who did the poll and paid for it
– Fox News
• Truth is out there?
Public is Uninformed
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Who controls the US house 61%
Name the Senate Majority leader 34%
Name the Chief Justice 6%
Length of Senate term, 26%
Which party is more Conservative, 52%
What party does President Clinton belong
to, 90%
Role of Public Opinion in a
Democracy
• public sentiment or opinion should play
some role and does, but
– Normative- how large a role should it play in an
ideal world
– Descriptive- how large a role does it play.
Nisbet’s Argument?
• What is public opinion, as opposed to
popular opinion?
• What role should it play in decisionmaking?
The Fickle Public
The
Fickle
Public
Gallup March 24-27, 2008
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/040308bailouts2_sntniaem25.gif
30
28
27
25
20
20
17
15
10
8
5
0
Strongly support
Support Somewhat
Somewhat oppose
Oppose Strongly
Unsure
"The government has proposed using up to 700 billion dollars to shore up failing financial
institutions on Wall Street. Some people say it's a bailout that those companies don't deserve.
Other people say it's necessary to protect the broader economy. On balance, do you support or
oppose this plan?“ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Sep 29, 2008
50
45
45
40
35
35
31
31
30
25
21
18
20
15
10
5
0
Too much
Right amount
Too little
In general, do you think there is too much, too little or about the right amount of government regulation of
business and industry?, Gallup 2004
Do you think the federal government regulates business too much these days, does it regulate business too
little, or does it impose the right amount of regulation on business?" CBS 2008
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
"Senator Barack "Members of
Obama"
Congress who
voted against
the bill"
"Senator John
McCain"
Approve
"The
Democratic
leaders in
Congress"
Disapprove
"The
Republican
leaders in
Congress"
"President
George W.
Bush"
Unsure
"Next, please say whether you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly
disapprove of the way each of the following handled their role in the efforts to pass
that bill. . . .“ USA Today
• Pew- "How much thought have you given to the debate
in Washington over how to respond to recent problems
in the financial markets . . . ?“
– A lot 54%
– A little 33%
– None at all 13%
• USA Today- "How closely are you following the news
about the financial problems on Wall Street and the
Bush administration's proposals to address the
problems: very closely, somewhat closely, not too
closely, or not at all?” 43% very closely
Most pay little attention to
politics.
• 22 million people watch Seinfeld,4 million
watch Nightline
• 14 million people get TV Guide, 4 million
get Time
• information costs of absorbing and storing
information is too high
• Relative benefits too low
Elite critique of public opinion
• most people are more most interested in private
pursuits and personal lives than abstract political
issues
• world is increasingly complex
• public is too easily incited by demagogues
– Masses are asses- fickle and unwise
– informed elites should govern with few appeals or
constraints of public opinion;
– Polls undermine government’s moral authority
Evidence- people are stupid
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1/3 have an opinion on the Agricultural
Trade Act
29% of people have a view on Wisnians
Should we abolish the electoral college?
doorstep opinions- People don't want to
appear ignorant, so they will make up
opinions
Page and Shapiro
Collective Public Opinion
• more sophisticated and rational than
individual level opinion
• Evidence
– is relatively stable
– changes in predictable ways to events and
public affairs
– Collective public is more capable and
competent than individual surveys suggest
Are the Public Stupid?
• Do you think the country's current financial
situation is a crisis, a serious problem but not a
crisis, a problem but not a serious one, or not
much of a problem at all?"
– 52% crisis, 43% serious problem
• How confident are you that the federal
government's efforts will prevent the country's
current financial situation from getting worse ?
– 6 very confident, 45% somewhat confident
Should we have a tax cut?
• Who will be helped by tax cuts
– Wealthy 58%
• Size of Surplus a lot lower than projected
– 70%
• What to spend surplus on
– Social Security 40% sound, 30% domestic
programs, 20% pay down debt, 10% tax cut
"More restrictions on air travel, including no curbside check-in, arrival at the
airport two or more hours before a flight, and no knives, scissors or other sharp
instruments allowed on the plane" 72
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"Issuing ID cards for every citizen and legal immigrant designed to be as
tamper-proof as possible"
51
.
"ID checks at all workplaces and public buildings 50
.
"Random ID checks on the streets and highways" 26
.
"Making it easier for intelligence and law enforcement agents to monitor people's
private telephone conversations and e-mail" 20
"Making cockpit doors on all passenger airliners stronger and more secure" 96
"Arming pilots on flights" 68
"Giving the military authority to shoot down passenger airliners that appear to be
hijacked for terrorist purposes" 59
Collectively Rational
"Do you think the U.S. should take military action against whoever is
responsible for the attacks?" Yes 92 No 5 Don't know 3
Do you think the U.S. should take military action against whoever is responsible for the
attacks, even if it means that innocent people are killed?" Yes 67 No 23 Don't know
10 .
"What if that meant going to war with a nation that is harboring those responsible for
the attacks, then do you think the United States should take military action against
whoever is responsible for the attacks?" Yes 83 No 10 Don't know 7
"What if that meant that many thousands of innocent civilians may be killed, then do
you think the United States should take military action against whoever is responsible
for the attacks?" Yes 68 No 21 Don't know 11 .
"What if that meant that thousands of American military personnel will be killed, then
do you think the United States should take military action against whoever is
responsible for the attacks?" Yes 72 No 18 Don't know 10
Critique of Elites
• Elites mislead the public
– surveys show that people want to balance the
budget
– only place people want less government
spending is welfare and foreign aid
– Are people stupid, or do politicians provide
crappy alternatives.
Iraq and Terrorism Indices
# of Mention in speeches
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Terror Index
17
19
21
23
Iraq Index
25
27
29
State of Union Address 2003
• “Before September the 11, many in the world
believed that Saddam Hussein could be contained.
But chemical agents, lethal viruses, and shadowy
terrorist networks are not easily contained.
Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons
and other plans—this time armed by Saddam
Hussein. It would take one vial, one canister, one
crate slipped into this country to bring a day of
horror like none we have ever known. We will do
everything in our power to make sure that that day
never comes.”
Wither the Opposition?
• New York Times- 35 stories
– 21 quote Bush, 30, member of his
administration
– 12 quote Dems, 14 members of UN
• 35 stories
– 17 neutral, 9 slightly positive, 9 negative
• No debate in NYT on framing of conflict in
terms of terrorism
Government by Opinion Poll?
• Clinton Health Care
– Polling is used to “package” ideas
• Bush Tax Cut
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Clearly not poll driven
“do you pay too much in taxes”
Government shouldn’t pick winners
No class warfare
Impact on Democracy
• Descriptive- how large a role does it play
– Affects style not substance
– W- “too many abortions in America”
– Sets broad boundaries rather than specific constraints
(foreign policy, capital gains tax cut)
• Normative- how large a role should it play in an
ideal world
– improve the “efficiency of democracy”
• Sets limits, constrains elites
– Clinton impeachment
– Gore concession