“What I want to get done is what the people
desire to have done, and the question for me
is how to find that out exactly.”
Abraham Lincoln
By Loren Miller
Why is Public Opinion Important?
Democratic governments rest on the consent of the
governed.
-- Hence, major shifts in public opinion should
trigger a shift in public policy
-- But public opinion is often unstable, weak, ill
informed or nonexistent
-- So public officials have flexibility in dealing
with public issues
This attention to public opinion has created an industry
in public opinion polling and survey research.
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
Many organizations regularly sponsor independent
national surveys.
-- CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX, Gallup, Washington
Post, Time, Newsweek
Political candidates also contract with private
marketing and opinion research firms to conduct
surveys in conjunction with their campaigns.
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
A “good” poll depends upon the selection of a random
sample of persons chosen in such a way which
insures that every person in the universe of people
has an equal chance of being selected for interviewing.
National samples usually begin with 1,000 or more
randomly selected persons
-- the larger the sample, the more accurate the
results
-- the larger the sample, the more costly it
becomes
Survey Research: Can We Believe the Polls?
The accuracy of the results primarily depends on the
randomness and size of the sample as well as the
wording of the questions.
Leading questions are often used by unprofessional
pollsters to produce a result favorable to their side.
Survey researchers can estimate the sampling error
through the mathematics of probability.
-- the sampling error is usually expressed as a
percentage range—for example, plus or minus
3 percent
Survey Research: Framing the Question
Do you favor or oppose allowing students and parents to choose
a private school to attend at public expense?
1.5
0.8
44
Oppose
Favor
54.2
Don't Know
No Answer
A proposal has been made that would allow parents to send their
school-age children to any public, private or church-related school
they choose. For those parents choosing non-public schools, the
government would pay all or part of the tuition. Would you favor
or oppose this proposal in your state?
1.6
0.3 15.1
83
Oppose
Favor
Don't Know
No Answer
Survey Research: Framing the Question
Do you believe that waterboarding is torture and that the U.S. has
a moral responsibility to not engage in or condone any form of
torture?
-- the question is confusing as there are two issues that are
presented: is waterboarding torture and whether the U.S.
should engage in it
Do you believe that abortion should be legal?
-- the question is oversimplified as many people believe that
abortion should be legal under certain circumstances
Should the Obama administration step back from the rush to
create “cap and trade” energy legislation that will cost jobs, harm
future economic growth, and impose an estimated $1,761 new
energy tax on American families?
-- the question is biased
Survey Research: Margins of Error*
Margin of Error
Sample Size
+/- 4%
600
+/- 3%
1,065
+/- 2%
2,390
+/- 1%
9,425
* For a universe greater than 500,000, 95% of the time
A Checklist for an Accurate Poll
1. A Random Sample: were the people in the survey randomly
selected such that any member of the population had an
equal chance being selected?
2. Sample Size: How many people do researchers need for an
accurate survey?
3. Sample Error: the larger the sample size, the smaller the
sample error.
4. Question Wording: did the way the questions were worded
influence the results?
5. Reliable Respondents: respondents often give socially
acceptable answers rather than truthful ones.
Prior to the 1936 election, The Literary Digest took a
straw poll of its readers and predicted a landslide victory
for Alf Landon, the Republican nominee. FDR won
46 of the 48 states in a landslide victory.
(Over 2 million votes but a biased sample)
The Chicago Tribune called the 1948 election
early in the evening thinking that Truman would
lose (wishful thinking on the part of the editors).
Accuracy of the Gallup Poll
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Actual Vote
Gallup
Survey Research: Push Polls
These polls are often done by campaign workers
posing as independent pollsters.
They deliberately word questions in such a way as to
elicit the “right” response:
-- “if you knew that Congressman Smith would
soon be indicted for child molestation, would
you vote for him?”
-- “improving education” vs. “raising taxes”
-- “cleaning up the environment” vs. “expanding
government power”
Survey Research: Exit Polls
On election day voters are personally interviewed as
they leave the voting booth.
Exit polls are used by the media to “call” winners early
on election night even before all the votes are counted.
-- in response to criticism that early calls reduce
voter turnout, the networks have agreed not to
call a state result until after the polls close in
that state
Survey Research: Other Polls
Telephone Poll:
How random is the sample?
Internet Poll:
Does everyone own a computer?
Call-in Poll:
Who is likely to call in?
Tips on Reading Polls
1. Check out the margin of error.
A 3 percent margin of error means plus or minus 3 percent, turning a 50 percent
approval rating into one of 47-53 percent
2. What is the timing?
The further away from Election Day, the less meaningful the results
3. The random sample is the “gold standard”
If the respondents chose themselves (by deciding to take the survey), then it’s only
fun to read and not an accurate picture of the public
4. What is the sample size
Be wary of polls that interview a small number of people
5. Compare across polls
Since every poll has biases, read a range of polls, toss out the extreme findings, and
take an average of the rest
Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions
Political Socialization is the learning of political values,
beliefs and opinions.
-- this begins early in life
Family—the first agent of socialization
-- children begin to identify themselves as
Republicans or Democrats (almost always the
same as their parents) but specific opinions on
policy questions may not be the same
-- political opinions in identical twins are more similar
than political opinions of non-identical twins (genetic
inheritance?)
Political Participation By Family Income
60
50
Donate Money
40
30
20
10
0
Contact
Politician
Attend Meeting
Sign Petititon
% of Parents Who Voted for the Same
Presidential Candidate as Their Children
Obama Voters
McCain Voters
Same Candidate
58%
78%
Different Candidate
17%
5%
One parent voted the same;
One parent voted different
20%
12%
5%
3%
Not Voting
Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions
School—today political battles over textbooks, teaching
methods, and prayer in schools are not unusual
-- there is no strong evidence that there is a
causal relationship between what is taught in the
schools and the political attitudes of students
-- schools try to inculcate good citizenship values
in their students (tolerance for others, the
importance of voting, democratic rules)
-- students are taught to respect the institutions of
government (the flag, the Pledge of Allegiance)
-- the younger the student the more positive their
attitudes towards political authority
-- during high school students acquire some ability to
think along liberal and conservative lines
-- the college experience appears to produce a
“liberalizing” effect
Education and Tolerance
Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions
Religious Beliefs—which religion a person identifies with
and how important religion is to the individual’s life
affects public opinion.
-- religion shapes political attitudes on a variety of
issues: abortion, drugs, the death penalty,
homosexuality, and prayer in public schools
-- religion also plays a role in political ideology:
fundamentalists are more likely to describe
themselves as conservatives than moderates,
and very few accept the liberal label.
Religion and Public Opinion
Socialization: The Origins of Political Opinions
Age—The Generation Gap
-- on most issues, older people are more
conservative than younger people
-- younger Americans in general are less
interested and involved in politics than older
Americans
-- younger Americans are less likely to keep up
with political news and are less likely to vote
Media Influence—media attention creates issues; it sets
the agenda for discussion
-- it does not tell people what to think; it tells them
what to think about
Gender and Opinion
Is there a gender gap in public opinion? Yes and No
Women are more likely than men to:
-- favor an activist role for government
-- oppose U.S. military intervention
-- support restrictions on firearms
-- support spending on social programs
-- identify themselves as Democrats
There is no difference on issues such as:
-- abortion
-- the role of women in business and politics
-- whether one would vote for a qualified woman
for president
Gender and Public Opinion
Policy
Men
Women
Gender Gap
Agree that same sex marriage
should be legal in all/most states
40%
53%
13%
Believe that government does
not do enough for poor people
52%
62%
10%
Believe that the best way to
ensure peace is through good
diplomacy
53%
62%
9%
Believe that the country should
do whatever it takes to protect
the environment
67%
75%
8%
Race and Opinion
Whites and Blacks differ significantly in:
-- believing that there is discrimination in
employment, housing and education
-- Blacks generally support a more positive role
for government in reducing inequality in society
(Blacks are more apt to identify themselves as
liberals)
-- African American perceptions of the criminal
justice system are especially negative
Hispanic Opinion
Hispanics are generally conservative on social issues:
-- opposing abortion and opposing racial
preference
Hispanics are generally liberal on economic issues:
-- government provision for health insurance
-- belief that immigration helps the economy
The Hispanic voter turnout is quite low:
-- Hispanics account for over 15% of the
population but around 10% of the voters
Who Votes and Why?
The more lively the competition, the greater the interest
of citizens, then the larger the voter turnout.
-- competitive elections are given larger play by
the media
-- people are more likely to think that their vote
counts
-- parties and interest groups spend more time
and money trying to get out the vote
Who Votes and Why?
Young people do not vote in the same proportion as
older people
-- 48% of 18-24 year olds voted in 2008
-- 70% of 65 and older voted in 2008
The more education, the more likely you are to vote
-- 37% of those with less than a 9th grade
education voted in 2008
-- 55% of those with a high school education
voted in 2008
-- 83% of those with an advanced degree voted in
2008
Political Apathy
% Who Follow Politics Infrequently
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
18-29
1996
65+
2000
2004
2008
2012
Turnout Increases With Age
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
18-20 21-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84
85+
Turnout Rate By Education
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ideological ID of College Freshmen
Who Votes and Why?
Females are more likely to vote than males
-- 66% of women and 61% of men voted in 2008
High income people are more likely to vote than low
income people (linked to education)
Whites and Blacks are more apt to vote than are
Hispanics
-- 65% of Whites voted in 2008
-- 63% of Blacks voted in 2008
-- 48% of Hispanics voted in 2008
Turnout Rate By Gender
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
Men
Women
Participation Rate By Income Level
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Under 15K
Above 75K
Turnout Rate By Occupation
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
The Changing American Voter
0
1988
85
10 41
1992
85
10 41
White
1996
83
11 52
Black
2000
81
11 52
Hispanic
2004
80
11 6 2
Asian
2008
76
2012
12 7 3
72
0
13 10 3
50
100
Turnout Rate By Type of Election
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Presidential
Congressional
Political Activities
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
76
5
10
16
18
22
9
Voter Turnout Rate in Selected Democracies
1945-2008
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Political Attitudes of Democrats and Republicans
Dem
Rep
77%
46%
Government should help more needy people even if the national debt increases 65%
29%
The best way to insure peace is through military strength
43%
75%
Poor people have become too dependent on government programs
62%
83%
We should restrict and control people coming into our country to live
more than we do now
64%
83%
The government is really run for the benefit of all the people
60%
41%
I am in favor of same-sex marriage
50%
17%
I am very patriotic
46%
71%
Government should take care of people who can’t take care of themselves
How Difficult Is It To Measure Public Opinion When So Many
People Lack Political Knowledge?
Does the Bill of Rights Prohibit the Official
Establishment of Religion in the United States?
73%
What are the Three Branches of Government?
50%
Name any Power of the National Government.
25%
Name one Country that was an enemy of the
United States During World War II.
35%