Public Opinion
Political Beliefs and Behavior #2
“Government for the people, by the people”
• Except….
• We don’t have a balanced budget
• The Equal Rights Amendment did not pass
• School bussing programs continued.
• No meaningful campaign finance reform
• Lax gun control laws
All of these policies are supported by a majority of the
people
Public Opinion vs. Public Policy
• The purpose of the United States Government
was not to have “popular rule.”
• The founders looked for substantive goals and
public opinion was just one of the options to
get there
• Federalism and a large republic contains many
“publics” that don’t reach the needed
consensus.
What is Public Opinion?
Although the definition is
simple understanding how
it works and what goes into
it is often overlooked.
Qualities of Public Opinion
• Intensity/Saliency
– Most public opinion polls do a bad job at
measuring how strongly somebody feels about an
issue.
Saliency can influence perception of
public opinion by making it appear
What do you think the percentage of
one side has a stronger numerical
people who believe abortion should
base. In addition a smaller, intense
be available in some form in the
group may have a better chance of
United States?
influencing policy than a larger nonintense group
Qualities of Public Opinion?
• Stability and Fluidity
–The rate at which public opinion shifts
over time. Any opinion that stays
around the same over a long period of
time is said to be stable. Any opinion
that dramatically changes over a long
(or short) period of time is said to be
fluid
Stable Opinion:
Abortion
Fluid Opinion:
War In Iraq
Qualities of Public Opinion
• Distribution
–The typical American public opinion is
distributed over many different
positions (most issues do not have just
two sides to it). Distribution can tell
politicians how much compromise is
possible on a particular issue
Public Opinion Polling
• Qualities of a valid public opinion poll
• Random Sample
• A sample in which every element in a population has an
equal chance of being selected
• Questions must be comprehensible
• People make up answers to questions they cannot
understand
• Questions must be fair
• Cannot contain loaded language (push polling) that can
influence responses
Public Opinion Polling
• Keep In Mind
– Sampling Error: In particular in close races
» For a population over 500,000 pollsters need to
make about 15,000 calls to reach 1,065
respondents to get a poll with a +/- error of 3%
– Lack of responses hurts accuracy
• Impact of Polls
– Bandwagon Effect
– Donations to Candidates
– Voter Turnout
Political Socialization
The process in which we
gather our political values
and become politically
aware.
Sources of Political Socialization
The Family
Religion
Gender
The Family
• Majority of high school students know
and support the party affiliation of their
parents
• However, in recent years, people are less
likely to identify with a political party, so
it is becoming more difficult to pass this
along.
The Family and the Generation Gap
More Likely to …
Support gay marriage
Support women’s rights
Support privatizing social security
Believe politicians have different
priorities
Not identify with a political party
More Likely to …
Be against gay marriage
Be against women’s rights
Maintaining current social security
Believe politicians share priorities
Identify with a political party
Religion
• Most Americans are somewhat or deeply
religious
– Difference lies in what role religion should play in
politics
• Religious influences most pronounced on social
issues
– Abortion
– Gay Rights
• Differences not only between religions but within
them
Gender Gap
Gender Gap
• The difference between political views of men
and women
– Women more likely to favor…
• Universal Health Care
• Same-Sex Marriage
—Women less likely to favor
• Military Intervention
Impact Of Gender Gap
• From 1920 to 1980 any differences were
negated by lower voter turnout of women
• Since 1980 woman have had a slightly higher
rate of voter turnout
– Women have been more likely to vote for the
Democratic Presidential Candidates.
Gender Gap in Elections Since 1980
11%
D
R
R
D
D
R
R
R
April 17, 2012 by Pew Research Center
Overall Women’s Vote
Obama: 53%
Romney 40%
45%
Trust in Government
• The question usually asked in polls is the
following...
“Do you trust that the government in
Washington will do what is right for the
citizens of the United States?”
How do you think this has changed over time?
Trust in Government
Trust in Government
Explaining the Trend Line Explaining the Trend Line
The Rise in the 90s Drop in 1960s and 1970s
goes along with due to experiences with
economic boom. Vietnam and Watergate.
The high peak is in the
few years after 9/11.
The drop is as the
wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq drag on
Trust In Government
• Context
• Mistrust is tied to specific leaders and policy
and not in the system
• Mistrust of government has trended along
with mistrust of other institutions (big
business)
• Role of Media?
Political Efficacy
A citizen’s ability to
understand and influence
political events.
Types of Efficacy
Internal Efficacy
External Efficacy
• One’s own confidence in
their ability to understand
and influence events in the
political realm.
• Remains about the same as
it was in the 1950s.
• One’s belief that the
government will respond to
its citizens.
• Declined since 1970s.
• Wilson speculates this is a
reflection of the growth in
the size of government.
Consequences?
Consequences?
Political Tolerance
• It’s existence is crucial to democratic
government
– Allows for free exchange of ideas
– Allows to select leaders without oppression
• In abstract we are very tolerant
• But in concrete situations we often would
deny rights
Political Tolerance
• How do unpopular groups survive?
– Most people do not act on their beliefs
– Officeholders tend to be more tolerant than
others
– No consensus on whose rights to deny
– Courts are insulated from public opinion.