Chapter 7
Public Opinion
What is Public Opinion?
Definition: How people think or feel about particular issues
FACTOIDS
• People do not spend a great
deal of time thinking about
politics.
• High levels of public ignorance
about complex issues.
• Despite being poorly informed,
citizens are quite good at using
cues (limited information) to
figure out which candidates and
positions reflect their values or
interests.
Jonathan Nourok/PhotoEdit
American politics is intensely local, as
when Rep. Loretta Sanchez shakes
hands with a voter in her California
district. p. 156
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Public Opinion and Democracy
• Should government leaders do what the people
want?
• What would the Framers think?
• Public opinion is very important, but very
complex.
• The “American people” are very diverse.
In order for American government to operate
democratically, the opinions of the American
people must becomeCopyright
part
of the political process.
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Public Opinion and Democracy
• Majoritarian vs. elite democracy.
• Madison: Government is obliged to represent
enduring concerns, not momentary passions.
• Jacksonians & Progressives: Distrusted elites.
Believed ordinary citizens can make good
judgments.
• 54% of Americans expect policymakers to do
what the majority wants.
• 42% of Americans want policymakers to use
their own judgment even if it goes against
public opinion.
Public Opinion and Democracy
Reasons for discrepancies between public
opinion and government policies.
Constitutional structure limits influence of
public opinion:
a) Purpose of government is not to do whatever the
people want; purpose is found in the six items
mentioned in the Preamble to the Constitution
b) Government structure contains several checks on
public opinion: representative government,
federalism, separation of powers, and independent
judiciary.
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The Science of Polling
George Gallup (1901-1984)
• Pioneer in the science of measuring
public opinion.
• Founded Gallup Organization in 1935.
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The Science of Polling: How Polling Works
1. Need to pose reasonable questions that are
worded carefully and objectively.
2. Respondents must have some knowledge
about an issue in order to answer.
3. Random sampling is necessary to ensure a
reasonably accurate measure of how the entire
population thinks or feels.
4. Sampling error reflects the difference between
the results of two surveys or samples.
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The Science of Polling: How Polling Works
5. For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to
make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065
respondents, ensuring the poll has a sampling
error of only +/– 3 percent.
6. Cost efficiency vs. accuracy: Polling firms
can economize by using smaller than ideal samples
but this reduces the reliability of the poll.
7. Low response rates harm reliability.
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The Science of Polling:
Polling Problems
• Most polls are conducted by randomly
dialing phone numbers. Only 90% of
American homes have phones.
• Cell phones not used in most samples. More
than 1/3 of Americans now have only a cell
phone.
• Refusal to participate has increased.
• People give socially acceptable answers
rather than truthful answers. (“Yes. I
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voted.”)
The Science of Polling:
Polling Problems
• People will not admit to not knowing about
complex issues (foreign policy)
• Not truthful about sensitive issues (black
candidates’ “lead” often overestimated).
 Doug Wilder’s “lead” overestimated in 1989
election for Virginia governor.
 Obama’s 2008 lead accurately predicted.
• Wording of questions inherently problematic.
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Political Beliefs and Behaviors
FROM THE AP GOVERNMENT COURSE
DESCRIPTION:
“Students should focus on the demographic
features of the American population and the
different views that people hold of the
political process. They should be aware of
group differences in political beliefs and
behavior.”
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political Socialization
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Political socialization – The process by
which background traits influence one’s
political views.
The Family
Religion
Age
The Gender Gap
Education
Social Class
Race and Ethnicity
Geographic Region
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Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works
Children grow up learning, but not
always following, their parents’
political beliefs. p. 159
Political Socialization: The Family
The Family
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Probably the most important
source of political
socialization.
Major role in shaping party
identification.
Relationship is weaker for
specific issues.
Influence of family on party
identification has declined in
recent years.
In general, party
identification among
Americans has declined
in recent years.
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Political Socialization: Religion
Religion
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Family and religious influence are
closely related.
Religious influences pronounced on
social issues (abortion, gay rights),
less so on economic issues.
Political opinions vary across and
within religious groups.
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FUNDAMENTALIST OR EVANGELICAL:
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?
"Both evangelicals and fundamentalists
tend to believe that [biblical] scripture…
is without error, and both tend to read
scripture fairly literally and view it as
absolutely authoritative from beginning to
end."
"The difference, though, is that
fundamentalists tend to be separatists
[withdrawing from politics and culture]
while evangelicals tend to be activists."
Source: Timothy Samuel Shah, senior fellow, Pew
Center on Religion and Public Life
Political Socialization: Religion
Religion
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Protestants are more conservative on
economic matters (taxes, min wage)
than are Catholics & Jews.
Catholics tend to be more liberal on
economic issues than on social
issues.
Jews tend to be more liberal on both
economic and social issues than
Catholics and Protestants.
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Political Socialization: Religion
Religion: Voting Patterns
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Evangelical Christians are more likely to
support the Republican Party and
conservative candidates.
Conservative tendency is strongest for social
issues (abortion, women’s rights).
2004 & 2008: “Churchgoers” more likely to
support Republicans, “non-churchgoers”
more likely to support Democrats.
“Religiously unaffiliated” much more likely to
support Democrats. 52% voted for Obama in
2012.
Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics,
August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4.
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Political Socialization: Age
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Voters under 30 years old increasingly vote
for Democratic candidates.
Kerry (2004) 54%,
Obama (2008) 66%
Young voters are more supportive of an
activist government and are more anti-war.
Young adults have
different political attitudes
than older adults.
Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy
School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008.
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Political Socialization: The Gender Gap
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1920s: Women more likely to
support Reps than were men.
Trend continued through
1930s.
Most women supported FDR,
but by a smaller percentage
than men.
Until 1980, women voted at
much lower rates than men.
Since 1980, they have voted in
higher rates than men.
Gender gap:
Difference in
political views and
behaviors between
men and women.
Political Socialization: The Gender Gap
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Women’s voting pattern changed in
the 1960s.
Since then, women have been more
likely to vote for Democrats.
Why?
Advent of women’s rights
movement
Women have different perspective
on issues than men.
Women, in general, are more
compassionate than men.
Political Socialization: The Gender Gap
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“WOMEN’S ISSUES”
Women are more concerned than
men about:
equal opportunity
equal treatment in the workplace
enforcement of child support
punishment for sexual abuse
abortion rights
education
health care
retirement security
welfare/family services
Political Socialization: The Gender Gap
“WOMEN’S ISSUES”
Women are generally opposed to
violence and are less likely than men
to support:
• the death penalty
• new military weapons systems
• firearms freedoms
Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on
Issue Importance (2006)
Source: Ms. magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly
selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006.
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Political Socialization: The Gender Gap
Most voting age women
believe the Democratic party
sees issues more as they do
than the Republican party
does.
The Gender Gap: Voting Patterns
“The presidential candidate who better
recognizes and responds to the growing
clout of women voters may well find
himself in the White House for the next
four years.”
Susan Carroll, professor of political science, Rutgers
University and Senior Scholar at the Center for American
Women and Politics (2004)
2008
Obama
McCain
Women voters
57%
43%
Men voters
50%
50%
Gender gap in presidential elections,
1972-2012
Note: Based on exit poll data from the New York Times.
Cleavages in Public Opinion
Crosscutting cleavages: divisions within
society that cut across demographic
categories to produce groups that are
different.
Examples:
• Wealthy Catholics, poor Catholics
• Conservative Hispanics, liberal
Hispanics.
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Education
Social Class
Race and Ethnicity
Region
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Lester Cohen/WireImage.com/Getty Images
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio
Villaraigosa speaks to
supporters. p. 164
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Education
• Evidence provides conflicting results.
• In general, the higher one’s level of
education, the more likely they are to
have conservative views.
• Many studies show that college
education influences people to have
more liberal social and economic
attitudes.
• These studies show that people who
attend college longer and attend
prestigious institutions become more
liberal.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Education
2008
• Obama: 67% of voters without HS diploma
65% of voters with post-graduate
degree
• McCain: 53% of those with HS diploma
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Social Class
Social class: ill defined in United States, though
recognized in specific cases (for example, truck
drivers and investment bankers)
• Most American workers (non-professional)
think of themselves as “middle class.”
• Social class less important in United States
than in Europe; extent of cleavage has declined
in both places.
• Class differences on political views and voting
patterns decreased considerably during the
1940s, 1950s, and 1960s.
• Many of today’s issues are not related to
economic or social class: homeland security,
abortion, environmentalism.
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Social Class
• Class differences that remain: unskilled workers
are more likely to be Democrats than affluent
professionals.
• Noneconomic issues now define liberal and
conservative.
• Many upper-income people self-identify as
“liberals.”
• Many lower-income people self-identify as
“conservative.”
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race/Ethnicity
African Americans
a) Overwhelmingly Democratic
b) Younger blacks are slightly more likely to identify
with Republicans and to support
government school voucher programs.
c) Continuing differences between white and black
attitudes on policy questions (affirmative action,
fairness of criminal justice system)
d) Areas of agreement between whites and blacks on
policy issues (opposition to abortion, dependency on
government aid).
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic-Americans
a) Hispanic-Americans: 63% of Mexican descent,
3.5% of Cuban descent.
b) Latinos tend to identify as Democrats, though
not as strongly as African Americans.
c) Latinos are somewhat more liberal than Anglos
or Asians, but less liberal than African Americans.
d) Broad areas of agreement between Latinos and
non-Hispanic whites
e) 2012 polling: Education is #1 issue, jobs #2,
immigration reform #3.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic-Americans
The number of
Hispanic voters
is rapidly rising.
Hispanic voters favor
Democratic candidates.
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race/Ethnicity
Asian-Americans
• Much more support for activist government
(55% to 39% for general public)
• More support for Democratic party
(50% D; 28% R)
• More liberal than general public.
• Registered Asian-Americans less likely to
vote (66% to 70% for general public).
Pew Research, 2012
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Race/Ethnicity
Asians
Pew Research, 2012
Cleavages in Public Opinion: Region
Region
• White southerners more conservative than other
regions regarding aid to minorities, legalizing
marijuana, school busing, and rights of the accused.
• White southerners similar to other regions regarding
economic issues.
• Historically, the South is more accommodating to
business interests (and less accommodating to
organized labor) than the North.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Region
Region
• No Democratic presidential candidate has won a
majority of white Southern votes since Lyndon
Johnson did so in 1964. In 2008, Barack Obama
won with one-half the white vote nationally while
only receiving 30 percent of the white vote in the
South.
• The “Solid South” – From the period after the Civil
War until 1960 southern states were reliably and
predictably supportive of the Democratic Party.
• Those days are over. The South is now reliably
Republican.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Region
The South was solidly
Democratic until the
1964.
Why the change?
Support for civil rights
by Lyndon Johnson.
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Cleavages in Public Opinion: Region
2012 Electoral College Map
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Political Ideology

Political ideology - A more or less
consistent set of beliefs about what
policies government ought to pursue.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political Ideology: Liberal & Conservative
Liberal: original meaning (early 1800s)
• Disapproved of a strong central
government.
• Strong government is a threat to
individual freedom.
• Liberals opposed “friendship” of
government and business.
• Free markets should be allowed to
function.
Thomas Jefferson
Political Ideology: Liberal & Conservative
Conservative: original meaning (early 1800s)
• Government is best left to political
elites (aristocracy).
• Favored more power for church.
• Opposed emphasis on personal
liberty (French Revolution)
Alexander Hamilton
Political Ideology: Liberal & Conservative
Meanings switched in 1930s (FDR & New Deal)
“New Deal Liberalism”
• Democrats saw government as
a “friend of the little people.”
FDR
• Government should be active.
o Intervene in economy
o Create social welfare programs
o Give certain groups (labor
unions) more influence in gov.
Political Ideology: Liberal & Conservative
Meanings switched in 1930s (FDR & New Deal)
Modern Conservatives
• FDRs opponents identified
themselves as conservatives.
• Opposed the creation of the
“welfare state.”
• Opposed government regulation
of the economy.
• Republicans increasingly
identified as conservative.
Barry Goldwater
Republican nominee for
president, 1964
The
government
should do
MORE to solve
society’s
problems.
The government should do
much more to end
poverty, including taxing
the rich more to support
antipoverty programs.
The
government
should do
LESS to solve
society’s
problems.
The only way to end poverty is
to teach poor people that they
must work hard to have a better
life. Rich people deserve to keep
the money they’ve earned and
shouldn’t be taxed more.
The
government
should do
MORE to solve
social
problems.
The
government
should do
LESS to solve
social
problems.
• More money for education.
•Lower taxes, fewer services.
• Not usually supportive of
war.
• Tougher criminal punishment.
• More protection for
environment
• Fewer regulations on
businesses.
The
government
should do
MORE to solve
society’s
problems.
22% of Americans
self-identify as
liberal.
Many Americans (36%)
are “in the middle.” The
two parties compete for
their votes.
MODERATE
The
government
should do
LESS to solve
society’s
problems.
39% of Americans
self-identify as
conservative.
Data from Gallup 2014
Political Ideology: Liberal & Conservative
• Terms represent real and persistent differences on
policy issues.
• Useful in study of political science.
• Roughly – but inconsistently – understood by most
Americans.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Source: Adapted from
“Profiles of the Typology
Groups: Beyond Red and
Blue,” Pew Research
Center for the People and
the Press, 2005.
Typology based on “value orientations”
1. Government Performance. Views about government waste and
efficiency and regulation of business.
2. Religion and Morality. Attitudes concerning the importance of
religion in people’s lives, whether it is necessary to believe in God
to be moral and views about homosexuality.
3. Business. Attitudes about the influence of corporations and the
profits they make.
4. Environmentalism. Opinions on environmental protection and
the cost and benefits of environmental laws and regulations.
5. Immigration. Views about the impact of immigrants on American
culture, jobs and social services.
6. Race. Attitudes concerning racial discrimination and whether the
country has made changes to give blacks equal rights with whites.
7. Social Safety Net. Opinions on the role of government in
providing for the poor and needy.
8. Foreign Policy Assertiveness. Opinions on the efficacy of
military strength vs. diplomacy and the use of force to defeat
terrorism.
9. Financial Security. Level of satisfaction with current economic
status and whether struggling to pay the bills.
“As there is a degree of depravity in
mankind which requires a certain degree
of circumspection and distrust, so there
are other qualities in human nature
which justify a certain portion of esteem
and confidence.” (Federalist 55)
“But what is government itself, but the greatest of all
reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no
government would be necessary.” (Federalist 51)
“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the
helm.” (Federalist 10)
“…it will be more difficult for unworthy candidates to
practice with success the vicious arts by which
elections are too often carried…” (Federalist 10)
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
Public
opinion
Views of
political
elites
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Public
policy
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
Views of
political
elites
Public
opinion
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Public
policy
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
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Political elites – persons with a
disproportionate share of political power.
Who are “elites?”
•
•
•
•
•
•
Officeholders
Candidates
Campaign workers
Media personalities
Leaders of interest groups, social movements
People who speak out on public issues.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
Elites display greater ideological
consistency than the public.
a)They have more information and more interest
in politics than most people, so they may see
more relationships among the issues.
b)Their peers reinforce this consistency.
c) Elites contradict and disagree with each other,
limiting their influence.
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Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy

Does public opinion drive elite views or
vice versa?
• Elites raise and frame political issues.
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Elites state the norms (values) by which
issues should be settled.
• Abortion: Pro-life value: life
Pro-choice value: liberty
Setting norms sets the range of what
policies are acceptable and unacceptable.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES HAVE ON THE
FOLLOWING?
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Racism
Sexism
Economic problems
Crime
Drugs
Rule of thumb:
• Elite views can influence
public opinion on some issues.
o Example: foreign affairs
• Elites cannot influence
“personal experience issues.”
o Example: unemployment
Political Elites, Public Opinion, and
Public Policy
Recent evidence
suggests that the
influence of majorities
(“the people”) on
policy is declining.
Views of
political
elites
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Public
policy
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Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among
Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.
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