Ph.D. COMPLETION AND ATTRITION
AT
DUKE UNIVERSITY FOR COHORTS
ENTERING BEFORE AND AFTER
INTERVENTATIONS
Lewis M. Siegel
Duke University
2007 CGS Annual Meeting
Seattle, WA
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE Ph.D.
COMPLETION RATE AT DUKE AFTER 1995:
STUDENT FUNDING
• Institute 5-6 year funding guarantee in all A&S units;
generally support to degree in sciences
• Departments given budgets based on graduate
education parameters, not service needs
• 3-year budgets to deal with variations in yield
• Reduction in student teaching loads; more fellowship
years
• Competitive summer research support introduced
• Funded capstone teaching fellowships at dissertation
stage
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE Ph.D.
COMPLETION RATE AT DUKE AFTER 1995:
BETTER INFORMED SELECTION
• Reduce emphasis on GRE scores and GPA’s –
data show poor correlation with completion as
Duke uses them
• Emphasize demonstrated research experience
• Transparency: Put Duke data on placement, time
to degree, completion rates in each program –
student should know what (s)he is getting into
• Interview students before admitting them –
Exchange information to learn “fit” rather than
just sell program
INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE Ph.D.
COMPLETION RATE AT DUKE AFTER 1995:
IMPROVED PROGRAMS
• Teaching: Require structured teaching experiences
for graduate TA’s where career-appropriate;
Graduate school workshops in pedagogy and uses of
instructional technology; expanded PFF program.
• Responsible conduct of research training extended to
all Ph.D. students in all disciplines
• Field-specific symposia to introduce career options to
Ph.D. students
• Enhanced student services; strong investment in
subsidizing child care for graduate students
• “Best Practices” charter for faculty, students, Grad
School
DUKE vs. CGS: Cohorts A at 10 Years
% Completion
Duke CGS
Social Sciences
Humanities
Physical Sciences
Biological Sciences
Engineering
61
62
61
74
62
56
49
55
63
64
%Attrition
Duke CGS
37
33
38
26
38
27
31
37
26
27
%Continuing
Duke CGS
2
5
1
1
0
17
20
8
11
9
Increased 7 Yr. Completion, Reduced Attrition in Humanities
Program
Matrics
1992-1994 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
Matrics
1998-2000 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
History
Religion
English
Romance Studies
Literature
Music
Classics
Philosophy
Other Small
55
44
40
31
27
17
15
12
26
24%
43%
37%
32%
48%
35%
40%
50%
23%
24%
18%
33%
39%
11%
47%
53%
17%
38%
53%
39%
30%
29%
41%
18%
7%
33%
18%
30
38
23
24
24
17
10
11
13
33%
50%
43%
21%
46%
65%
50%
64%
31%
37%
11%
22%
25%
21%
18%
50%
27%
15%
16%
39%
35%
54%
33%
18%
0%
9%
54%
HUMANITIES
267
35%
29%
36%
190
46%
23%
31%
Increased 7 Yr. Completion, Reduced Attrition
in Social Sciences - - ECONOMICS UNCHANGED
Program
Economics
Psychology
Political Science
Sociology
Business
Cult Anthropology
Matrics
1992-1994 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
Matrics
1998-2000 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
69
41
37
24
21
19
55%
78%
24%
25%
71%
42%
41%
15%
32%
50%
29%
42%
4%
7%
43%
25%
0%
16%
55
31
41
25
26
14
56%
74%
56%
52%
88%
43%
40%
13%
22%
44%
8%
29%
4%
13%
22%
4%
4%
29%
SOCIAL SCIENCES 211
51%
34%
15%
192
63%
27%
10%
Relatively Little Change at 7 Yr. in STEM Fields--Improvement in High TA Programs, but ENV and EOS Get Worse
Program
Biomedical Sciences
A&S Biology
Environment
Matrics
1992-1994 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew
%Cont
Matrics
1998-2000 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
177
74
32
67%
53%
75%
21%
36%
19%
18%
12%
6%
176
58
34
66%
71%
50%
23%
22%
38%
17%
7%
12%
BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
273
64%
25%
11%
278
63%
27%
10%
Chemistry
Physics
Computer Science
Math
Statistics
Earth & Ocean Sci
51
41
37
22
18
15
65%
62%
51%
45%
78%
53%
31%
35%
43%
50%
22%
47%
4%
3%
5%
5%
0%
0%
63
40
48
30
19
11
75%
58%
48%
60%
79%
45%
22%
35%
46%
27%
21%
55%
3%
7%
6%
13%
0%
0%
PHYSICAL SCIENCES 184
60%
36%
4%
211
62%
32%
6%
Biomedical Engineering 41
Mechanical Engineering 47
Electrical & Computer Engineering
38
Civil & Environmental Engineering
34
75%
62%
53%
35%
15%
36%
42%
62%
10%
2%
5%
3%
47
34
68
26
81%
65%
50%
31%
13%
15%
44%
65%
6%
21%
6%
4%
ENGINEERING
58%
37%
5%
175
58%
33%
9%
160
7 Year Completion Rate Increases for Graduate School
Program
GRAD SCHOOL
Matrics
1095
1992-1994 Cohorts
%PhD %Withdrew %Cont
1998-2000 Cohorts
Matrics %PhD %Withdrew %Cont
53%
1046
31%
16%
59%
28%
13%
HUMANITIES: Ph.D. COMPLETION
Ph.D. Completion
70%
60%
DUKE - A
50%
CGS
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES: Ph.D. ATTRITION
40%
35%
Ph.D. Attrition
30%
25%
20%
DUKE - A
15%
CGS
10%
5%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES: Ph.D. CONTINUATION
100%
90%
Ph.D. Continuation
80%
70%
DUKE - A
60%
CGS
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
Humanities: Annual Rate of Completion of Ph.D. Program
16.0%
Duke Cohort A
14.0%
CGS Cohort A
12.0%
% Completion
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-2.0%
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
Humanities: Annual Rate of Attrition from Ph.D.
Program
10.0%
9.0%
Duke Cohort A
8.0%
CGS Cohort A
% Withdrawal
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES: DUKE University Ph.D. Completion Rates
for Cohorts A and C
70%
60%
Ph.D. Completion
50%
40%
30%
Cohort A
Cohort C
20%
10%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES: DUKE University Ph.D. Attrition Rates
for Cohorts A and C
40%
35%
Ph.D. Attrition
30%
25%
20%
15%
Cohort A
Cohort C
10%
5%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES: DUKE University Ph.D. Continuation
Rates for Cohorts A and C
100%
90%
80%
Cohort A
Ph.D. Continuation
70%
Cohort C
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
Humanities: Annual Rate of Completion of Ph.D. Program
25.0%
Duke Cohort A
Duke Cohort C
20.0%
CGS Cohort A
% Completion
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-5.0%
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES Ph.D. COMPLETION: DUKE vs. CGS DATA
Change in Ph.D. Completion
50%
45%
Duke Cohort A
40%
Duke Cohort C
CGS Cohort A
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0->4yr
4yr->7yr
7yr->10yr
Humanities: Annual Rate of Attrition from Ph.D. Program
10.0%
9.0%
Duke Cohort A
8.0%
Duke Cohort C
% Withdrawal
7.0%
CGS Cohort A
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
HUMANITIES Ph.D. ATTRITION: DUKE vs. CGS DATA
25%
Change in Attrition
Duke Cohort A
Duke Cohort C
20%
CGS Cohort A
15%
10%
5%
0%
0->4yr
4yr->7yr
7yr->10yr
SOCIAL SCIENCES: Ph.D. COMPLETION
70%
60%
Ph.D. Completion
DUKE - A
50%
CGS
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES: Ph.D. ATTRITION
40%
35%
Ph.D. Attrition
30%
25%
20%
15%
DUKE - A
10%
CGS
5%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES: Ph.D. CONTINUATION
100%
90%
Ph.D. Continuation
80%
DUKE - A
70%
CGS
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES: DUKE University Ph.D. Completion
Rates for Cohorts A and C
70%
60%
Ph.D. Completion
50%
40%
Cohort A
30%
Cohort C
20%
10%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES: DUKE University Ph.D. Attrition
Rates for Cohorts A and C
40%
35%
Ph.D. Attrition
30%
25%
20%
Cohort A
15%
Cohort C
10%
5%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES: DUKE University Ph.D.
Continuation Rates for Cohorts A and C
100%
90%
Cohort A
Ph.D. Continuation
80%
Cohort C
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
Social Sciences: Annual Rate of Completion of
Ph.D. Program
30.0%
Duke Cohort A
25.0%
Duke Cohort C
% Completion
CGS Cohort A
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
SOCIAL SCIENCES Ph.D. COMPLETION: DUKE vs. CGS DATA
Change in Ph.D. Completion
60%
Duke Cohort A
50%
Duke Cohort C
CGS Cohort A
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0->4yr
4yr->7yr
7yr->10yr
Social Sciences: Annual Rate of Attrition
from Ph.D. Program
12.0%
Duke Cohort A
10.0%
% Withdrawal
Duke Cohort C
CGS Cohort A
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Year
8
9
10
11
12
13
SOCIAL SCIENCES Ph.D. ATTRITION: DUKE vs. CGS DATA
30%
Duke Cohort A
Change in Attrition
25%
Duke Cohort C
CGS Cohort A
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0->4yr
4yr->7yr
7yr->10yr