Chapter 5: Public Opinion
Our government rests on public opinion.
Abraham Lincoln
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Public Opinion
• An aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs
• Polls measure public opinion
• Foundation of democracy
• Private opinion becomes public opinion when
an individual takes some type of action to
express an opinion to others publicly
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Defining Public Opinion
• Consensus: general agreement on an issue
• Divisive opinion: public opinion which is
polarized between two opposite positions
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Consensus vs. Divisive Opinions
Consensus Opinion
Divisive Opinion
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Political Socialization
• Sources of political socialization
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Family and the social environment
Educational system
Peer group
Opinion leaders
Media
• Agenda setting
• Equals family influence
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Political Socialization
• Political events can produce a long-lasting
impact on opinion formation.
• Generational effect (cohort effect) are the effects
on opinion from the era in which one lives
• Great Depression
• Watergate
• September 11 terrorist attacks
• Reagan years vs. Obama years
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Political Preferences and
Voting Behavior
• Demographic Influences
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Education
Economic Status
Religious Influence: Denomination
Religious Influence: Commitment
Race and Ethnicity
Gender
Geography
Age
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Liberals/Conservatives Differ on Spending
for Safety Net and Environmental Issues
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Red States and Blue States Have Similar
Opinions on Many Controversial Issues
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Voting Gender Gap, 1992 to 2008
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Election-Specific Voting
Behavior Factors
• Party Identification (partisanship)
• Political ideology affected by both political and
social values
• Perception of the Candidates
• Issue Preferences
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Role of Elites
• Elite Theory: public opinion is shaped by
discourse among elites, is top-to-bottom process
• Modern elites shape citizen thinking
• Media/political observers
• Politicians
• Policymakers
• Citizens must be exposed to the message and
must be open to it
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Polling about the Economy
Click the icon to open the movie
This story discusses
American’s pessimism
about economic recovery,
and their views on
Congress. Tea party
politics is seen by many as
a viable alternative.
Airdate: 5/21/2010
Video Supplied by Motion Gallery
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Video Questions
1. Are the poll results an accurate reflection of
Americans’ views about Congress? Will this
impact Congressional legislation?
2. Why are “tea party” members more likely to
identify with Republican views?
3. Does an individual’s socioeconomic status
affect their political views? How?
4. Are economic recovery efforts swayed by public
opinion?
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Measuring Public Opinion
• The History of Opinion Polls
• 1800s: Straw Polls
• 1930s: Modern, relatively accurate polling techniques
developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper and others
• Post WWII: University of Michigan founded Survey
Research Center
• JFK: first president to use polling
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Measuring Public Opinion (cont)
• Sampling Techniques
• Representative Sampling (accurate)
• The Principle of Randomness
• A purely random sample will be representative within the
stated margin of error. The larger the sample of the
population, the smaller the margin of error.
• Quota Sampling (less accurate)
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Polling Terms
• Population is entire group the poll represents
• Sample
• Subset of a population
• Norm for an accurate sample is 1,000 people
• Representative Sample
• Not biased
• All members of population have equal chance of
being interviewed
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Polling Terms (cont)
• Confidence interval: the statistical range that
takes random error into account
• Sampling error: measure of the accuracy of a
public opinion poll
• Nonattitudes
• Respondents have no opinion or are uninformed
• Sources of poll errors when individuals feel
compelled to answer
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Problems with Polls
• Sampling Errors
• The difference between a sample’s results and the
true result if the entire population had been
interviewed.
• Many poll results can be misleading
• Scientific polling (random sampling) increases accuracy
• When can sampling errors be dangerous?
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PEANUTS © 1998 Charles Schulz. Reprinted by permission of United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
BLONDIE by Young & Drake. © Reprinted with special permission of King Features Syndicate
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Problems with Polls (cont)
• Poll Questions
• Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to
shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please
the interviewer.
• Push Polls
• Attempts to spread negative statements about a
candidate by posing as a polltaker.
• Used by candidates at every level
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Dewey Defeats Truman?
Infamous Chicago Tribune headline on November 2, 1948 predicting Truman’s presidential
defeat. Polls showed Truman was behind. © UPI /Bettmann /Corbis
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Technology and Opinion Polls
• Advent of Telephone Polling
• Easier and less expensive than
door-to-door polling
• Became new standard
• Polling fatigue (many are
market research)
• Declining nonresponse rates
• Cell phone proliferation has
reduced poll accuracy
• Use of caller ID/answering
machines affects results
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Technology and Opinion Polls (cont)
• Internet Polling
• There are many unscientific “nonpolls” on the
Internet
• Not yet truly representative
• In time, nonresponse rates to Internet polling could
escalate like those of telephone polls.
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Public Opinion and
the Political Process
• Political Culture and Popular Opinion
• A set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and
government. Certain shared beliefs about important
values are considered the core of American political
culture.
• Current U.S. values include liberty, equality and
personal achievement
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Presidential Election Polling
Click the icon to open the movie
This story talks about why
polling is so complex:
different polls make
different assumptions
about voters, and thus,
reach different results.
Airdate: 10/24/2008
Video Supplied by Motion Gallery
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Video Questions
1. How can inaccurate polling data hinder
democracy?
2. What changes would you expect to see in the
collection of public opinion data in the next
few years?
3. Did polling data affect the outcome of the
2008 presidential election?
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Public Opinion and
the Political Process
• Political Culture/Support
• Political Trust
• Americans generally trust
the political system to
resolve issues.
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Public Opinion
About Government
• Trust in government peaked after 9/11, but fell back
thereafter.
• Over the years, the military and churches receive the
highest levels of public confidence.
• After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs.
• Confidence in churches is hurt by a series of sexual abuse
scandals.
• The Supreme Court scores highly
• Media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more
poorly.
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Confidence in Institutions: Percentage of Americans
Who Have a “Great Deal” or “Quite a Lot” of
Confidence in Major U.S. Institutions
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Public Opinion
and Policymaking
• The general public believes the leadership should pay
attention to popular opinion.
• Leaders themselves are less likely to believe this.
• Setting Limits on Government Action
• Public opinion may be at its strongest in preventing politicians
from embracing highly unpopular policies.
• When public opinion changes drastically, government
policy is much more likely to change as well.
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Public Opinion
and Policymaking (cont)
• Polarization: stark political disagreement
• Currently at high levels
• Fuels controversy and political attacks
• Depolarization: parties agree and have similar
policy positions
• Offers little political choice
• Leads to decreased political participation
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Questions for
Critical Thinking
1. In what ways have you been socialized
politically? Compare and contrast your
experiences with your classmates.
2. In your opinion, what are the core American
political values?
3. How will current political polarization affect
U.S. policymaking?
4. What purposes do public opinion polls
serve?
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Web Links
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The Gallup Organization
MSNBC
Pollingreport.com
Roper Center
American National Election Studies (ANES )
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