Science & Public Policy
Stephen M. Maurer
Jan. 26 2006 - Lecture 2
One More
Puzzle:
Oil
Introduction
Science Interacts With Society…
Courts Use Science
Decision-makers Use Science
Society Invests in Science
Not All Science is Public!
Economics & Science
Oil
Discovery Rate (BBLs)
A Simple Exploration Model: Every Year, The Industry
Sends Out 10,000 Workers to Look for Oil
Time
Oil:
The Hubbert Curve
US Peak – 1980
World Peak - 2000
Oil
Predictions
Winston Churchill (1911)
US Navy (1911)
Teapot Dome/Strategic Petroleum Reserve
M. King Hubbert (1956)
Paul Ehrlich and The Club of Rome (1971)
Current Estimates
10 years or 50?
1350 billion barrels (1969) vs. 3021 billion (2000)
Oil:
The Hubbert Curve
Why Geologists Believe the Hubbert Curve
Example: US Exploration
Why Economists Don’t.
Examples: Nazi Germany, Saudi Exploration,
Capital Markets
Who’s Right?
Oil:
Implications
Implications for Politics
“Finding a billion barrels here and a
billion barrels there doesn’t change the
nature of the argument.”
– World Resources Institute
Implications for Policy
“It doesn’t matter when the oil runs out, it’s
going to run out eventually.”
– Steven Chu
Pre-History
Was There Sufficient Innovation?
Ancient World
Irrigation Economies
Pyramids as Industrial Research
Patrons and Prizes
Archimedes, Consultant
Dyonysius
The Library of Alexandria
Middle Ages
Patrons, Courts, Prizes
Knowledge & Commerce
Early Modern
Europe
Frederick the Great, George III
19th Century
In-house expertise, agriculture,
resource mapping
Foundations & The Birth of Big Science
World War I
Aviation
1930s
Big Science Between the Wars
World War II
Nuclear Weapons, Radar, etc., etc.
Penicillin.
1946
Vannevar Bush,
Science, The Endless Frontier
Post-War
Harley Kilgore & NSF Legislation
Physics (ONR)
Health & General Science
Korea
Nuclear Weapons, Electronics
Sputnik & The Space Race
Aerospace, General
Science
Vietnam
< >
Energy Crisis
Energy & Fusion
Research
Competitiveness
Computing,
Engineering,
Electronics
End of Cold War
<>
Bush Administration
Health
Current Budget = Fossilized History?
National Defense
Health
Space & Aeronautics
General Science & Basic Research
Pollution Control
Conservation, Resource
Mapping & Weather
Agriculture
Energy
Other
54%
23%
9%
6%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
DOE Expenditures ($2.3 billion)
Nuclear and high energy physics
Fusion and energy research
Advanced scientific computing
Human genome research
Other types of biology and
environmental research
Other
37%
36%
5%
4%
15%
3%
NSF Expenditures ($2.7 billion)
Mathematics and
physical sciences
Earth sciences
Biology
Engineering
Computer science
Other
28%
18%
15%
14%
14%
11%
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1996 Dollars
1.5
1.0
.5
0.0
1961.0 1965.0 1969.0 1973.0 1977.0 1981.0 1985.0 1989.0 1993.0 1997.0
1963.0 1967.0 1971.0 1975.0 1979.0 1983.0 1987.0 1991.0 1995.0
General Science Expenditures
20
10
0
1955
1961
1958
1967
1964
1973
1970
Health Expenditures
1979
1976
1985
1982
1991
1988
1997
1994
2000
NIH Budget
$27.9 billion (2004)
$13.6 billion (1998)
30
20
10
0
1961
1965
1963
1969
1967
1973
1971
Space Expenditures
1977
1975
1981
1979
1985
1983
1989
1987
1993
1991
1997
1995
1999
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1961
1965
1963
1969
1967
1973
1971
1977
1975
Energy Expenditures
1981
1979
1985
1983
1989
1987
1993
1991
1997
1995
1999
Lawrence Berkeley Lab
Stockpile Stewardship
Computing
Biology & Genomics
Terrorism
Nondefense Government Spending on R&D
3.5
3
2
1.5
1
0.5
19
97
19
93
19
95
19
91
19
89
19
85
19
87
19
83
0
Ye
ar
19
81
Percentage
2.5
In decreasing order of terminal (1998) values: Japan,
Germany, U.S. (in bold), France, U.K., Canada, Italy
R&D spending, Percentages of total
0.8
0.7
Percentage
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Who pays for R&D? Top: Government ; Bottom: Industry
Federal Government 7%
Industry 75%
Universities and Colleges 14%
Nonprofits and other
government 4%
Note: R&D performed by
FFRDC's is included w here the
FFRDC is located, either industry
or univerities.
S
Source: National Science
Foundation, Science and
Engineering Indicators
2002 , Appendix Table 4-3.
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1953
1962
1971
1980
1989
1998
Year
Top: US Funding to industry. Bottom: US Funding to universities