Ch2: The Data of Macroeconomics Mankiw: Macro Ch2 Mankiw: Principle of Econ Ch23,24,28 Williamson: Macro Ch2 Froyen: Macro Ch2 Macro Variables Y: national income or GDP P: price level (cost of living) π: inflation rate u: unemployment rate r: interest rate 主計處網站: http://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=15139&ctNo de=3565 The Definition of GDP 國內生產毛額 Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the income and expenditures of an economy. It is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. 台灣2007年GDP:約12.6兆新台幣 (台灣資料請參考Ch23.xls) GNP ( Gross National Product):國民生產毛額 The Definition of GDP “GDP is the Market Value . . .” Output is valued at market prices. (1) traded in the market (2) weighted with market prices “. . . Of All Final . . .” (1) records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods: No double counting (不重複計算) (2) Or Σ(value added):附加價值的加總 eg, 小麥($1)麵粉($3)麵包($6) The Definition of GDP “. . . Goods and Services . . . “ “. . . Produced . . .” currently produced, not transactions involving goods produced in the past. (No second-hand trade) “ . . . Within a Country . . .” both tangible goods (food, clothing, cars) and intangible services (haircuts, housecleaning, doctor visits). within the geographic confines of a country. “ “. . . In a Given Period of Time.” within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months). What Is Not Counted in GDP? GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets. GDP excludes (1)most items produced and consumed at home. (2)items produced and sold illicitly (illegal drugs). Imputed values: 住宅服務的價值-即「租金」:租用及自用均設算。 家庭主婦所提供之服務不計入家事服務或GDP當中,若 家庭主婦亦計入GDP,則各國將無所謂之失業者。 The measurement of GDP: Identity: GDP = total output = total income = total expenditure illustrated with the circular-flow diagram. 3 approach: 1. Production approach (產出面) Y= output=Σ value-added 2. Expenditure approach (支出面 ) 3. Income approach (所得面 ) The Circular Flow Output Expenditure ($) Firms Households Income ($) Factors (Labor, capital, Land) Output=Income=Expenditure For an economy as a whole, income must equal expenditure because: Every dollar of spending by some buyer is a dollar of income for some seller. output must equal expenditure because: Unsold output goes into inventory, assuming that firms purchase their unsold output. Expenditure Approach: The expenditure components of GDP Y = value of total output C + I + G + NX aggregate expenditure C: consumption I: investment G: government spending NX: net exports Consumption (C) definition: The value of all goods and services bought by households. Includes: durable goods last a long time ex: cars, home appliances nondurable goods last a short time ex: food, clothing services work done for consumers ex: dry cleaning, air travel. Investment (I) Definition 1: Spending on [the factor of production] capital. Definition 2: Spending on goods bought for future use Includes: business fixed investment Spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & services. residential fixed investment Spending on housing units by consumers and landlords. inventory investment The change in the value of all firms’ inventories. Investment vs. Capital Investment is spending on new capital. Example (assumes with depreciation): Kt 1 (1 ) Kt It t 期期初 Kt=20, 折舊率δ=0.2, 毛投資 It=5, Kt+1=? 淨投資=? Stocks vs. Flows Flow Stock A stock is a quantity measured at a point in time. A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time. Stocks vs. Flows - examples stock flow Capital (human capital) Investment (education) Wealth Annual saving Govt debt Govt budget deficit Government spending (G) G includes all government spending on goods and services.. G excludes transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent productive activities. Net exports: NX = EX – IM def: The value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM). 2% 0 0% -200 -2% -400 -4% -600 -6% -800 1950 -8% 1960 1970 NX ($ billions) 1980 1990 2000 NX (% of GDP) percent of GDP billions of dollars 200 U.S. Net Exports, 1950-2006 年度 20 05 20 02 19 99 19 96 19 93 19 90 19 87 19 84 19 81 19 78 19 75 19 72 19 69 19 66 19 63 19 60 19 57 19 54 19 51 % Taiwan data: export and import (%) 出口與進口佔GDP比例 80 70 60 50 40 出口 進口 30 20 10 0 Taiwan’ GDP (Y) 組成 C I G EX IM S 歷年平均 59.18 22.62 16.55 38.16 36.51 24.26 1951-1960 71.17 15.99 19.07 9.42 15.65 9.76 1961-1970 61.98 21.71 18.41 20.81 22.91 19.61 1971-1980 52.45 30.09 15.84 45.60 43.98 31.71 1981-1990 51.29 22.60 16.20 52.17 42.26 32.51 1991-2000 57.90 24.38 15.51 46.50 44.30 26.58 2001-2007 60.80 20.20 13.31 61.43 55.74 25.89 GNP vs. GDP Gross National Product (GNP): Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total income earned by domesticallylocated factors of production. GNP=GDP+(factor payments from abroad) – (factor payments to abroad) =GDP+NFP (NFP: net factor payments from abroad) Income Approach: National income (NI) 國民所得 ≡ factors income ≡ wages + net interest income + rental income + profits NNP (net national product) ≡ GNP- depreciation NI ≡ NNP-indirect business taxes Income approach 相關所得定義 Personal income (PI) 個人所得 =NI + net Govt transfer to individuals - corporate retained earnings + interest income on govt bonds =NI + (government transfers to individuals - Social insurance contributions) -(corporate profits- Dividends) +(personal interest income - net interest) 課本公式 Disposable Personal income 個人可支配所得 = PI- personal income tax Numerical example by Williamson Calculate GDP from each approach Real vs Nominal GDP Nominal GDP values of goods and services at current prices. (Y=PtQt) Y P Q Pi Q t Real GDP values of goods and services at constant prices in the base year. (y=P0Qt): the measure of real output t t i t i y P 0Qt Pi 0Qit i Eg, Real and Nominal GDP The GDP Deflator (GDP平減指數=P) The GDP deflator is calculated as follows: Nominal GDP GDP deflator= 100 Real GDP Pt Qt = 0 t 100 PQ the measure of price change 亦即 P Y / y Y=P*y, P=Y/y ,y=Y/P Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP: Real GDP20XX Nominal GDP20XX 100 GDP deflator20XX 亦即 y=Y/P 2007年:名目每人平均GDP為NT$55萬=16,768美金 實質每人GDP=(550,343/96.14)=572,439 (2001價格) Inflation Rate The Inflation Rate(π): 通貨膨脹率=物價上漲率 When π<0:deflation (通貨緊縮) P in Year 2 - P in Year 1 Inflation Rate in Year 2= 100 P in Year 1 P Pt Pt 1 亦即 t P Pt 1 percentage changes Z XY Z Y X X Y (ignore X Y ) growth rate Z X Y Z X Y Y Z/X Y Z X Y Z X 或者取 ln,全微分可得。 *percentage change in Z (growth rate of Z) percentage change in X + percentage change in Y percentage changes Y Py Y y P Y y P Eg: Nominal GDP rises 9% and Real GDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%. Growth rates of Nominal GDP and Real GDP FIGURE Growth rate of Nominal GDP and Real GDP 45 40 35 30 % 25 20 15 10 5 0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 -5 Year Nominal GDP Real GDP 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Measuring the Cost of Living Consumer Price Index (CPI): 消費者物價指數 shows the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by a typical family relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. ‧used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time. When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living. The composition of the CPI’s “basket” 台灣CPI類別權數(基期=1995) 7、雜項類 6% 6、教養娛樂類 17% 1、食物類 26% 1、食物類 2、衣著類 3、居住類 4、交通類 5、醫藥保健類 5% 5、醫藥保健類 2、衣著類 4% 6、教養娛樂類 7、雜項類 4、交通類 14% 3、居住類 28% How to calculate CPI t 0 PQ CPI= 0 0 100 PQ another measure of price change Take GDP accounting for example, suppose the base year is 2005, Please calculate CPI. Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living CPI:not a perfect measure of cost of living: (1) Substitution bias (2) Introduction of new goods (3) Unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living. CPI vs. GDP Deflator prices of capital goods included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically) excluded from CPI prices of imported consumer goods included in CPI excluded from GDP deflator the basket of goods CPI: fixed GDP deflator: currently produced, changes every year Taiwan data: Two measures of inflation FI GUR E T w o M e a su r e s o f I n f l a t i o n R a t e s 50 40 Annual Inflation Rate (%) 30 20 10 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 -10 GDP deflator Year CPI 1992 1996 2000 2004 勞動力之分類 臺灣地區總人口 未滿十五歲人口 武裝勞動力 十五歲以上人口 監管人口 民間人口 (現役軍人) (民間)勞動力 就業者 非勞動力 失業者 Measurement of Unemployment 人力資源調查:名詞與定義 民間人口:在資料標準週內年滿十五歲。 勞動力(Labor Force,LF): 可以工作之民間人口,包括就業者及失業者。 就業者(the Employed,E): 從事有酬工作者,或從事十五小時以上無酬家屬工作者。 失業者(the Unemployed,U,「狹義失業人口」): 同時具有: (1)無工作;(2)隨時可以工作;(3)正在尋找 工作或已找工作在等待結果。尚包括等待恢復工作者及找到職業而未 開始工作亦無報酬者。 勞參率與失業率 非勞動力(not in the LF): 不屬於勞動力之民間人口,包括因就學、料理家務、高齡、 身心障礙、想工作而未找工作及其他原因等而未工作亦未 找工作者。 勞動參與率(labor-force participation rate): = 勞動力/十五歲以上民間人口 失業率(unemployment rate): = 失業者/勞動力 廣義失業率 廣義失業人口:「狹義失業人口」 加上「非勞動力中想工作而未找工作者」。 後者:非勞動力人口中有工作意願 但無尋職行動之人口: Discouraged Worker(喪志勞工) 廣義失業率 = 廣義失業人口/(勞動力+喪志勞工) Taiwan data: The Breakdown of the Population in 2007 Employed 1029.4萬 Labor Force (1071.3萬) Adult Population (1839.2萬) Unemployed (41.9萬) Not in labor force (767.9萬) Copyright©2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning Chapter Summary GDP GNP NNP NI PI DPI 3 approach to measure output GDP=C+I+G+(EX-IM) Nominal GDP, real GDP Price index, inflation rate CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics slide 44 Chapter Summary Overall level of prices measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the GDP deflator Labor participation rate Unemployment rate CHAPTER 2 The Data of Macroeconomics slide 45