Have we become acclimatised to greater inequality?
National Science Learning Centre
University of York
11 January 2016
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Family income makes a significant difference
to children’s outcomes: poorer children have
worse
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cognitive,
social-behavioural and
health outcomes
This relationship was independent of other factors that
have been found to be correlated with child poverty
(e.g. household and parental characteristics).

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
UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal

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

UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal





UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal
Health
.630**
Education
.540**
Subjective
.664**
Behaviour
.588**
Housing
.664**
Overall well-being
.823**
Overall excluding material
.719**
Figure
Source: The Lancet 2014; 384:1923 (DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62271-6)
Comparative
performance
Material well-being
Relative poverty BHC
‘Absolute’ child poverty
BHC
Child poverty gaps
Material deprivation
Persistent poverty BHC
Inequality
Health
Still births
Infant mortality
Child deaths
Low birth weight
Breastfeeding
Immunisation rates
Self-assessed health
Obesity
Sex
Diet
Alcohol
Smoking
Drugs
Exercise
Inequality
Source
Middling
Middling
SILC (2013)
SILC (2013)
Good
Middling
Good
Bad
SILC (2013)
SILC (2013)
SILC (2013)
UNICEF (2010)
Middling
Middling
Middling
Cousens et al 2011
World Development Indicators 2015
WHO mortality data base (UNICEF 2013)
Middling
Good
Middling
Bad
Good
Bad
Middling
Bad
Good
Bad
Good
Middling
World Development Indicators 2015
OECD Family data base (2005)
OECD Family data base (2010)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
UNICEF (2010)
Subjective well-being and
mental health
Life satisfaction
Mental health
Suicide
Talking to mothers
Talking to fathers
School friends kind and
helpful
Liking school
Subjective health
Education
Literacy achievement
Maths achievement
Science achievement
Inequalities in
achievement
Staying on rates
NEET
Housing
Housing satisfaction
Living space
Inequality in living space
Environment
Child maltreatment
Fighting
Been bullied
Bullying others
Children in care
Crime
Childcare
Spending
Enrolment 0-3
Enrolment 3-5
Costs to parents
Staff/child ratios
Time and space
Comparative
performance
Source
Bad
Middling
Good
Middling
Middling
Middling
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
OECD Family Database
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
Middling
Bad
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
Middling
Middling
Middling
Middling
PISA (2012)
PISA (2012)
PISA (2012)
UNICEF (2010)
Bad
Middling
OECD Family data base(2015)
OECD Family data base (2015)
Good
Good
Bad
Good
SILC (2013)
SILC (2013)
UNICEF (2010)
SILC (2013)
Good
Good
Middling
-
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
HBSC (Currie 2012)
Middling
Bad
Bad
Bad
Bad
Middling
OECD Family data base (2015)
EU SILC
EU SILC
OECD Family data base (2015)
OECD Family data base (2015)
Children’s Worlds Survey


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UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal
19
19
95
94
93
/6
/5
/4
/3
5
19
/2
10
92
91
/1
15
19
19
90
/9
0
/9
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
88
89
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
% poverty rate
40
35
30
25
20
Before Housing
Costs
After Housing
Costs
0
•
•
•
•
Relative low income = Equivalised net household income less
than 60% median 2020 target: <10% of children
Combined low income and material deprivation = Material
deprivation >20% and equivalised net household income less
than 70% median 2020 target: <5% of children
‘Absolute’ low income= Equivalised net household income
falling below 60% of the ‘adjusted base amount’ 2020 target:
<5% of children
Persistent poverty= Equivalised net household income less
than 60% of median for 3 years prior to current year 2020
target <7% of children.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plan to cut £80 billion deficit by 2013
20% from increases in taxes
80% from cuts in services and huge reduction in
public employment
Whole package highly regressive
And cuts directed at children (not pensioners)
Child poverty already increasing
Unemployment was 2.5 million – youth at record high1
million plus
Real earnings falling for six years
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Child benefits frozen for three years then 1%
To be taken back from higher rate tax payers –
through the tax system
EMA abolished
Health in Pregnancy Grant and child trust funds
abolished
Cuts in childcare tax credits 80% to 70% subsidy and
Surestart maternity grant restricted to one child
Cuts in Child tax credits – 2011 reneges on promise
for above inflation uprating
Uprate benefits by CPI rather than RPI. Now 1% for
three years
Increase VAT from 17.5% to 20%
Benefit cap and bedroom tax
Labour period
trend 1997-2010
After 2009 Source
to latest
Material well-being
Relative poverty BHC


HBAI
‘Absolute’ child poverty
BHC
Material deprivation

X
HBAI
▪

HBAI
Persistent poverty BHC

▪
HBAI
Still births
≈

ONS
Infant mortality


ONS
Child deaths


ONS
Low birth weight
≈
≈
ONS
Breastfeeding


ONS
Immunisation rates
X

DoH
General health


HSE
Longstanding illness

≈
HSE
Limiting longstanding
illness
Diabetes


HSE
X
X
HSE
Asthma
≈
▪
HSE
Dental health
▪

HSCIC
Injuries and accidents


DoT
Obesity
X
≈
HSCIC
Diet (fruit and veg)

X
HSCIC
Alcohol


HSCIS
Smoking


HSCIC
Physical activity
▪
X
HSCIC
Drugs


CSEW
Health
Labour period
trend 1997-2010
Subjective well-being and mental
health
Happiness overall
Mental health
Suicide
Happiness with friends
Happiness with family
Happiness with school work
Happiness with appearance
Happiness with life
Happiness with school
Education
Key stage 2 attainment
5 GCEs A-C
Level 2 qualifications
Staying on rates
Exclusions
NEET
Housing
Homelessness
Temporary accommodation
House conditions
Child maltreatment
Fatal abuse
Physical abuse
Neglect
Children in care
Length of spells in care
Placement stability
Education attainment
Childcare
Formal participation
Crime and drugs
Proven offences
Arrests
After 2009 to Source
latest




≈

≈

▪
X
≈
X
X
≈

X
X

BHPS
ONS
ONS
BHPS/US
BHPS/US
BHPS/US
BHPS/US
BHPS/US
BHPS/US




≈
≈






DFE
DFE
DFE
DFE
DFE
DFE



X
X

DCLG
DCLG
EHS/EHCS

≈
Home Office

≈
X
X
NSPCC
NSPCC
▪



≈

DfE
DfE
DfE

≈
DFE




YJB
YJB
Taylor-Robinson et al BMJ 2013;347:f7157
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UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal

Pillas D, Marmot M, Naicker K, et al. Social
inequalities in early childhood health and
development: A European-wide systematic
review. Pediatric Research 2014;76:418–24.
doi:10.1038/pr.2014.122
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Die in the first year of life;
Be born small;
Be bottle fed;
Breathe second-hand smoke;
Become overweight;
Suffer from asthma;
Have tooth decay;
Perform poorly at school;
Die in an accident.
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UK spatial
International comparative
Time series
Incidence
Longitudinal

Poor children have a higher risk of death in
adulthood across almost all conditions that have
been studied, including

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

mortality from stomach cancer,
lung cancer,
haemorrhagic stroke,
coronary heart disease,
respiratory-related deaths,
accidents, and
alcohol-related causes of death
Galobardes B, Lynch JW, Smith GD. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances and
cause-specific mortality in adulthood: systematic review and interpretation.
Epidemiologic Reviews 2004;26:7–21. doi:10.1093/epirev/mxh008
Galobardes B, Lynch JW, Smith GD. Is the association between childhood
socioeconomic circumstances and cause-specific mortality established? Update of a
systematic review. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 2008;62:387–90.
doi:10.1136/jech.2007.065508
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Ambition to deal with deficit by 2020
Mainly by huge cuts in working age benefits
Welfare Reform and Work Bill
Huge cuts in tax credits delayed by Autumn
Statement but introduced in Universal credit as
it rolls out
Child poverty targets abolished
IFS child poverty up 200-600,000 by 2020
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There is national and comparative evidence that child
poverty and child health and well-being was improving until
2010.
Austerity measures have hit families with children hardest
Child poverty will increase – all gains swept away 2020
targets missed.
Child health and well-being bound to suffer.
However evidence is not really there yet.
Work needed!
All Party Parliamentary Group on Health in All Policies
Inquiry launch: Child Poverty and Health – the Impact of the
Welfare Reform and Work Bill 2015-2016
Sophie Wickham, Elspeth Anwar, Ben Barr , Catherine Law,
David Taylor-Robinson, Child poverty: Using evidence for
action, Arch.Child. Diseases
 @profjbradshaw