CIRCULAR MIGRATION AND TOURISM ENTREPRENEURIALSHIP IN TANZANIA: A CASE STUDY OF DAR ES SALAAM AND KILWA Dr. George F. Masanja Department of Geography St. Augustine University of Tanzania P. O. Box 307, Mwanza, Tanzania Email: grgmasanja@yahoo.co.uk ABSTRACT This paper explores circular migrants’ skills, remittances and investments and tourism entrepreneurialship, drawing on data of 324 respondents out of which 113 are circular migrants from Tanzania. The paper reviews existing evidence on the role of circular migrants and the diaspora in promoting development in Sub-Saharan Africa, before computing odds ratios to binary data that influence whether circular migrants contribute to tourism entrepreneurialship. Factors tested for their association with tourism entrepreneurialship include a range of individual characteristics, reasons for visiting regularly, and the acquisition of financial, human and social capital while abroad. The analysis suggests that exposure, work experience abroad, remittance and regular visits are the most significant predictors of tourism entrepreneurial ventures among the circular migrants and the diaspora in Tanzania. 1.0 INTRODUCTION From the 1980s, African international migration has been viewed as an important resource for development in African countries in terms of the Diaspora and remittances. Yet, there is no unanimity on evidence and conclusions drawn from the existing previous literature, and more work is still required on the Diaspora migrationdevelopment linkages. With the emergence of Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) in the 1990s and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for 2000, a growth interest has focused on the linkages between Diaspora (as a distinctive aspect of migration), remittances and poverty reduction in Africa. Over the past decade, there has been both significant growth in the world economy, and progress in terms of the economic development of poorer nations, and the fight against poverty. Indeed, recent reviews of progress towards the UN’s ‘Millennium Development Goals’ (MDGs) in some respects have painted a remarkably positive picture, particularly associated with rapid economic growth in China and India (Sachs 2005). Yet one region in particular stands out as problematic in terms of the MDGs – that of Sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is alone among world regions in that by 2004, it had either made no progress, or was lagging on all 20 targets against which progress towards the MDGs is measured (United Nations 2004). As with people the world over, Tanzanian migrants remain tied to their home country. Some return as tourists; others plan to retire as soon as they have “made it”; many, motivated by kinship obligations, remit cash and kind. Remittance payments have been important sources of income for many households in the country. These cash receipts are used mainly to purchase food and consumer durables and to improve living conditions. Both remittances and circular migration have been beneficial to individuals, improving living conditions, sources of income, and in investments. However, there still looms a great debate as to whether remittances and foreign savings aid and abet development despite personal benefits to migrants and their households. Likewise, despite the volume of resources flowing to developing countries, many people believe that they have yet to realize their full development potential. Because remittances tend to flow directly to family members and households in developing countries, and because they are generally used for consumption rather than investment or savings, many believe that their impact on communities is limited. This paper therefore seeks to examine whether or not circular migrants including the African Diaspora and their remittances do leverage development in African countries. Tanzania’s circular migrants’ tourism entrepreneurial ventures have not been systematically investigated. The specific objective of this study was to assess the association of circular migrants’ remittances, and skills and tourism entrepreneurial establishments in the coastal zone of tourism with Dar es Salaam and Kilwa as study sites. The paper is organised into four sections. First, it provides a typology of migration flows and definition of migration concepts. In the second section, consideration is given to emigration as a source of data for circular migration in Tanzania and its potential links to small tourism business development. Additional sub-sections include labour migration, limitations of migration data in Tanzania; Tanzania’s efforts and remittance flows from and to Tanzania. Drawing on this review and an empirical survey of circular migrants to two Tanzanian cities –Dar es Salaam and Kilwa – odds ratios were caculated to estimate the association between the propensity to establish a tourism enterprise as a circular migrant and background factors, focusing in particular on the role of different kinds of capital transfer, skills and regular visits to places of origin. Although the analysis does not consider whether such businesses were successful, or contributed to development, the final section suggests some tentative conclusions on how the paper’s findings might be relevant to ‘migration and development’ policies. A Typology of Migration Flows and Definition of Migration Concepts No generally accepted typology of migration flows exists, but commonly, in the literature, authors classify contemporary migration flows in Sub-Saharan African temporal and spatial dimensions. The temporal aspect of migration relates both to the distance traversed and the duration of residence at the destination. In the temporal dimension, SubSaharan African migrations include seasonal migration, short-term migration for a period of two to five years and long-term or permanent migrations. Spatially, migrations may be rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to rural, or urban to urban (Amselle 1976). Others less common typology concerns chain and group migration, which are common in Sub-Saharan Africa. Chain migration arise from the fact that migrants rely on the network of social relations (friends, relatives, town-folk) that provide accommodation on arrival and assist in securing employment. Unlike voluntary migration, which derives mainly from economic factors, the reasons for mass or group migration within and across national borders in Sub-Saharan Africa are noneconomic, and are related to political and religious factors, and sometimes, natural disasters. For the purposes of this paper, different types of international migration are relevant. These include labour (unskilled/semi-skilled, highly educated/skilled professional transients) and specific forms of tourismrelated migration such as labour migration, return migration, entrepreneurial migration, and retirement migration. In many developing countries, the migration process is predominantly circular, not permanent. Migrants regularly return to their countries and villages and retain their ties to land. The distinction between circular migration and return migration lies in the fact that circular migrants return seasonally or temporarily whereas return migrants’ return is more long term or permanent (Thomas-Hope, 1985). Diaspora on the other hand can be defined as people who have migrated and their descendents maintain a connection to their homeland. The African Union, defines the African diaspora as “consisting of people of African origin living outside the continent, irrespective of their citizenship and nationality and who are willing to contribute to the development of the continent and the building of the African Union” (African Union 2005). In this paper, circular migrants and the diaspora are put into one basket sharing a common characteristic of being continuous migrants as opposed to return migrants. Emigration as a Source for Circular Migration Data in Tanzania Data on emigration in Tanzania is scarce. Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics, for instance, has no data at all on emigration (Prinz 2005). Only estimates and data from developed receiving countries, international organizations and research entities are used to overcome such gaps. Estimations elaborated by the DRC of Sussex University (Migration DRC, 2007) provide the most recent data that can be used to approach the number of Tanzanian emigrants by country of destination. According to this data source, there are 287,051 emigrants originating from Tanzania worldwide representing 0.7 per cent of the total population. The top ten receiving countries, hosting 84,7 per cent (243,131) of Tanzanian emigrants, are: Uganda with 58,725 emigrants (20.5 per cent) followed by South Africa with 52,554 emigrants (18.3 per cent), United Kingdom with 32,943 emigrants (11.5 per cent), Zimbabwe with 25,297 emigrants (8.8 per cent), Canada with 19,960 emigrants (7.0 per cent), Mozambique with 15,208 emigrants (5.3 per cent), Malawi with 13,699 emigrants (4.8 per cent), United States of America with 12,819 emigrants (4.5 per cent), Germany with 7,587 emigrants (2.6 per cent) and Kenya with 4,339 emigrants (1.5 per cent). Out of these ten countries, six are within Africa and host 59.2% of Tanzanian emigrants. The remaining 43,920 (25.3 per cent) of Tanzanian emigrants, living out of the top ten countries, are variably spread all over the world and mostly in Africa. Previous estimations of Tanzanian emigration compiled by Dilip Ratha and Zhimei Xu as country profiles for the Migration and Remittances Factbook of the World Bank (2008) and referring to the year 2005 provided different figures. They estimate the stock of emigrants from Tanzania to 188,789 representing 0.5 per cent of the population. According to the same source, only four out of the top ten destination countries for Tanzanian emigrants are within Africa. This shows that migration data, even when available, is subject to weaknesses related to the concepts definitions and measurement and estimation methods adopted by the data producer. Moreover, even observed stock data derived from censuses are subject to underestimation especially for migration. Therefore, users need to be fully aware of these weaknesses when drawing conclusions from the data. As for data comparison again, figures from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for the year 2008 show that more than 72,000 Tanzanian born emigrants live in the OECD countries in 2008, of which 36,000 in UK, 19,765 in Canada (2006), 9,686 in the USA and 3,357 in Australia (OECD 2010b). However, we should notice that figures are not available for all the receiving countries, especially in Africa where 67.5 per cent of Tanzanian emigrants reside. Regarding other migration indicators, Tanzania had an emigration rate of 0.8 per cent for the period 2000-2002 as calculated by the UNDP (2009) based on data from Migration DRC (2007) and the population prospects of the UN (2009). The major continent of destination for migrants from Tanzania, as calculated by the UNDP (2009) based on data from Migration DRC (2007), is Africa with 67.5 percent of emigrants. This is actually the case for 72.7 per cent of sub-Saharan emigrants who move over national borders but remain within the African continent. However, Tanzania's share of total migrants’ stock in Africa is only leveled at 1.21 per cent (UNDP 2009). Europe comes at the second position as a receiving continent for Tanzanians with 17.4 per cent of emigrants followed by North America with 11.4 per cent for the period 2000-2002 (UNDP 2009). However, Tanzanian emigrants represent less than 1 per cent in each of these two continents as a share of their total immigrant stock. Labour Migration Few emigration outflows occurred during the early postcolonial history consisted of labour migration to mines in Zambia and South Africa and people crossing to neighbouring Kenya and Uganda in search of either wage employment or land (Egerö, 1979). Outside Africa, the stock of Tanzanian migrants in OECD countries, aged 15 years and above, is estimated to have reached 70,200 of which 40.7 per cent are highly skilled (tertiary education level) (OECD, 2010a); one of the highest among African emigrants in the OECD countries (24.5 per cent for all Africa and 33.1 per cent for SubSaharan Africa). The emigration rate of the tertiary educated among the total Tanzanian population with higher education is, in the contrary, lower and estimated at 15.6 per cent. Nonetheless, it is still quite high compared to other countries in the region, as this percentage reached 12.2 per cent for sub-Saharan Africa and 5.2 per cent for the countries with medium human development. Getting access to higher education is the most important reason to migrate overseas (de Bruijn et al. 2001). Brain drain of young talent seems to constitute a great part of the migration from Tanzania to Europe (IOM 2008b). As for the mobility of physicians, we noticed that figures are subject to conflict between sources as reported by the World Bank in its as country profiles for the Migration and Remittances Factbook (2008). According to Docquier and Bhargava (2006), 81 or 8.8 per cent of those physicians trained in the country emigrated and according to Clemens and Pettersson (2006), the value are considerably higher: 1,356 or 51.8 per cent. This is quite considerable discrepancy which should be scrutinised in further analyses. For nurses, 953 or 3.5 per cent of those trained in the country emigrated. Regarding the economic activity status, the labour force participation rate of these Tanzanian emigrants is estimated at 69.9 per cent (OECD 2008) which is lower than the national rate (88.4 per cent) and the subSaharan rate (72.6 per cent) but higher than the overall African rate (63.4 per cent). The total unemployment rate of 5.9 per cent is lower than the African and sub-SaharanAfrican rates (6.5 per cent vs. 12.0 per cent respectively). By level of educational attainment, as generally, Tanzanian migrants with tertiary (higher) education are less affected by the unemployment compared to migrants with lower educational levels. The unemployment rate is estimated to have reached 4.2 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively for migrants with high, medium and low educational attainment. This means that international migrants from Tanzania are better involved in the labour market than others from Africa, especially when they are highly educated. On the other side, it is acknowledged in Tanzania that refugees in the old settlements have contributed to the economies of the regions in which they live (UNHCR 2010). Besides that, Tanzania is increasingly receiving irregular and mixed migratory flows, most of them from the Horn of Africa, heading to southern African countries in search of safeguarding physical and economic security (IOM 2009). Moreover, Indian and Chinese migration to Tanzania has occurred over time, since the end of the 19th century, through distinct waves and for diverse motives. Basically for labour purposes for the later and trade for the former. In the 1930s Chinese went to settle in Zanzibar. During the 1960s and 1970s workers were sent by the Chinese government as part of development assistance to Tanzania (around 13,000 workers in the railway construction). Private entrepreneurs and traders began doing business there during the 1990s. Some expatriates, in the 1990s, went initially to Tanzania with the intention of working in industries, such as construction, textiles, or food products before they switch into business and trade activities. Many people of Indian origin are traders and they control a sizeable portion of the Tanzanian economy. Limitations Tanzania of Migration Data in Except for refugees, research on migration, within and beyond the Tanzanian borders, is hampered by insufficient, if not inexistent data. Tanzania’s National Bureau of Statistics, for instance, has no data at all on emigration (Prinz, 2005). Only data and estimates from developed migration receiving countries and international organizations are used to overcome such gaps. Other key gaps still exist not pertaining only to non availability of accurate numerical estimates of migrants and remittances, but also to lack of information on migrants’ profiles and migration policies (implicit and explicit) related to all migration issues in the country. Tanzania’s Efforts Tanzania being an African country has also realized the potential of its people who have decided to stay in foreign countries in terms of skills and economic investment. Previously Tanzania was concerned over brain drain and made all efforts to restrain migration. It is now gradually giving way to migration facilitation and changing from “brain drain” to “brain gain” concept. The government is seriously exploring the best ways to reap the benefits of migration. It is creating an environment in which Tanzania can gain from the wealth of skills and expertise that its people in the diaspora posses. There are many countries in the world which have immensely benefited from engaging their diaspora in their development goals. Good examples are India, China and Philippines. Tanzania hosted the International Conference on ‘African Diaspora Heritage Trail’ in Dar es Salaam from 25th to 30th October, 2009. The theme of the conference was “An African Homecoming: Exploring the Origins of the African Diaspora and Transforming Cultural Heritage Assets into Tourism Destinations”. The African Diaspora conferences aimed at sharing accessible expertise and technical assistance in the development of heritage tourism programs and products. As a result of the government’s recognition of its circular migrants and the diaspora, and coupled with the current focus on these groups, the Government has established that Tanzanians in the diaspora have acquired professional experience in various fields. Some have vast investment potential and do constitute a critical reserve of skilled labour force. Consequently, Tanzanians of the diaspora are considered as one of the country’s economic development stakeholder. The Government thus envisages a structured diaspora role in diverse sectors of development such as tourism. Remittance Flows to Tanzania Tanzania is receiving a very low amount of remittances annually. Only US$ 14 million were received in 2007 (US$ 19 million in 2008) representing 0.1 per cent of the GDP and 0.5 per cent of the ODA (World Bank 2009 and 2010). Per capita, the amount is insignificant (US$ 0). As for comparison, the average is US$ 26 for sub-Saharan Africa and US$ 262 for Nigeria in 2007. The same year, the ratio of remittances to FDI (Foreign Direct Investments) is also insignificant while the ratio to the ODA (Official Development Assistance) is only 0.5 per cent. Indeed, as mentioned above, the number of immigrants from developing countries in Tanzania is quite noteworthy with respect to the amount of foreign investments reaching US$ 647 million in 2007 and US$ 744 million in 2008 (World Bank, 2010). The ODA amounted to US$ 17.5 million in 2007 and US$ 12 million in 2008 representing three to four times the amount of remittances. Although most of its emigrants live in Africa, Tanzania receives the highest amount of remittances (49.3 per cent) from Europe which should clearly be correlated to wage differentials and, at a lesser extent, to migrants’ profiles (skills). The percentage of remittances inflowing from North America is 37.3 per cent while the share of remittances from the entire African continent is only 11.0 per cent. The most striking observation with regard to remittances in Tanzania is that this country is one of the few developing countries where the outflow of remittances is higher than the inflow confirming the impact of its migratory pattern of a country receiving more migrants/refugees than it sends abroad. US$ 46 million left Tanzania as outflow of remittances in 2007 and US$ 54.4 million in 2008. Foreign investors from developing countries, as seen above, might remit partly or totally their savings to their origin countries. Thus the inflow of FDI is compensated, partly, by the outflow of remittances. The average of remittances outflow per capita amounted to US$ 59 in 2007 (World Bank 2009). An IOM study (2009c), on the remittance transfer between Tanzania and Uganda concluded that some formal data shows a net flow of funds in favour of Uganda (US$ 2.6 million from Tanzania vs. US$ 1.6 million to Tanzania, according to postal bank records in 2008). Overview of the Tourism Industry in Tanzania One might consider these figures with caution since the true size of remittances, including unrecorded flows through formal and informal channels and remittances in kind, is believed to be larger in most of countries. The study on the TanzaniaUganda remittance corridor (IOM 2009c) found out that almost 60 per cent of the interviewed migrants preferred remitting through the informal systems. The amount of money transferred remains unknown. This occurs despite the availability of a wide range of formal transfer facilities (banking institutions, post offices and remittance companies) although more or less reached by larger groups of population. The cost limitations of the formal system are cited as the main reason for avoiding it. Furthermore, some banks in Tanzania opened agencies in the UK and USA to simplify deposits by Tanzanians living abroad. Others have even created investment related products tailored to suit the needs for investments back home (IOM 2009c). Tourism is the sum of the phenomena and relationships arising from the travel and stay of non-residents in so far as they do not lead to permanent residence and are not connected to any earning activity. On the other side, amounts of the remittances outflow are subjected to underestimation than the remittances inflow due to registration differentials and transfer channels used for each. This means that the outflow of remittances from Tanzania might be much higher than indicated. Moreover, remittances in and outflows are not often geographically disaggregated by origin/destination countries. For instance, a clear cut answer on whether the outflow of remittances from Tanzania is mostly due to refugees, to other immigrants or even to Tanzanian nationals is unknown. Tourism is one of Tanzania's leading economic sectors, providing employment, foreign exchange and international recognition. Tanzania has some of the world’s finest tourist attractions and game reserves. Equally famous are trekking expeditions (notably Mount Kilimanjaro) and coastal tourism. These attractions, among others, qualify tourism as a growth sector, as they offer immense opportunities for expansion of the sector. Growth of tourism was 1.9 percent in 2009. This explains the risks of its reliance on foreign tourists, which makes it susceptible to swings of the global economy. The sector also faces inadequate technical, managerial, and entrepreneurial skills for a modern tourism industry and infrastructural bottlenecks and poor tourist supporting services (health, finances, insurances, ICT, etc), which have resulted in substantial under-exploitation of the nation's tourism potential. Addressing these constraints will lead to expansion of not only natural resource based tourism, but also cultural tourism. Tourism, however, remains the single most important area of the Tanzanian economy in which the role of small tourism entrepreneurs has not been systematically investigated. Yet its ability to provide opportunities for small-scale entrepreneurs has been well established. Circular migrants may be attracted to tourism ventures since their overseas experiences are likely to have increased their familiarity with different lifestyles and, in turn, their ability to maintain cross-cultural interactions. Harnessing Circular Migrants and Diaspora Contributions Migration contributes to countries of origin by way of the three R’s: remittances, resourcing expatriates, and the return of migrants to their countries of origin. In the context of this paper, migration takes into account current circular and temporary migration realities. It is noted that underdevelopment is among the route courses of migration. Migration can both adversely affect development and can have important benefits. Much of the literature on diaspora contributions focuses on skilled migrants and how trade, technology, and capital formation are facilitated by migrants with advanced degrees. But both low-skilled and high-skilled make contributions to their homeland. A growing body of research suggests that skilled migrants and country networks abroad are important reservoirs of knowledge (Saxenian 2002a, 2004, 2006; Barré and others 2003; Kuznetsov 2006; Westcott 2006; Wickramesakara 2009). Other studies highlight the contributions of all migrants, including low-skilled diaspora (Orozco 2003, 2006a, 2006b; Lowell and Genova 2004; Lucas 2004, 2006; Portes, Escobar, and Radford 2007; Crush 2011). Other studies analyze how members of the African diaspora contribute to their countries of origin (Chikezie 2000; Mohamoud 2003, 2010; Mohan and Zack- Williams 2002; Bakewell 2008). 2.0 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1 Area of the Study Recently, the need to diversify away from wildlife tourism (as well as complement it) and develop other attractions has been recognized by both the public and private sectors. The coastal zone is one of the areas that have vast, untapped potential to attract tourism investment. The coast of Tanzania is tropical as Tanzania lies just south of the Tanzania has a long coastline of about 800 kilometers excluding near shore islands, bays, lagoons and estuaries. The study area therefore extends from Dar es Salaam to Tanga and between Dar es Salaam, Mafia and Kilwa. Figure 1: TANZANIA - Coastal Tourism Zone showing Study areas Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 2.2 The Universe The universe was made up of two areas namely the city of Dar es Salaam and Kilwa. Kilwa District, particularly Kilwa Kivinje, Kilwa Masoko, Kilwa Kisiwani, Songo Mnara, Sanje ya Kati and the adjacent Mangrove Reserves and nearby caves form the main tourist attractions. These areas can be considered the 'jewels' of Tanzania's Swahili Coast. Plate 1: Seated at the ruins of the Husuni Kubwa sultanate palace at Kilwa Kisiwani Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Other areas have excellent attractions as well, but these three priority areas have the most potential because of the uniqueness of the sites and resources and the diversity of attractions within a small area. 2.3 Target Populations and Study Units Dar es Salaam’s population has an estimated size of approximately an estimated population of 4 million. It is estimated that approximately 69% of the population growth was caused by rural-urban migration (Sommers, 2001). Figure 2: Map of Dar es Salaam Source: Wikipedia The majority of the poor city residents are proprietors of small businesses and account for 20% to 40% depending on the area of the city. Petty traders or street vendors are 15% to 20% and consists mainly of male youth between 20 and 29 years of age. Skilled workers account for 20% of the labour force. Unskilled labourers are 10 to 30% (PHDR, 2002). Figure 3: Number firms and number of people working in Dar es Salaam Source: National Bureau of Statistics: Census of Business Establishments, 2003-2005 Dar es Salaam is Tanzania’s economic and financial center, with a concentration of large manufacturing, economic and financial center, with a concentration of large manufacturing and medium-scale enterprises. There is good reason to believe that the growth of many of these small businesses is boosted by remittances and/or circular migration. For Kilwa District, there were 171, 057 people in the last national census, of which 82,322 were males and 88,835 were females. Kilwa District is located in Lindi Region in southern Tanzania. It lies on latitude 80 20 to 90 56 and longitude 380 36 to 39050 east of Greenwich. Figure 3: Map of Kilwa Source: Research at Songo Mnara To the north it borders with Rufiji district, Coast Region, Lindi and Ruangwa Districts in the south, Liwale district in the west and to the east, it borders with the Indian Ocean. The total district area is 3, 347.50 km2 of which 12, 125.9 km2 is surface land and 1,221.52 km2 is the ocean. It is administratively divided into 6 wards, 20 wards and 97 registered villages (Masoko and Kivinje urban areas inclusive). 2.4 The Sample Size A randomly selected sample of circular migrants for the Dar es Salaam City was drawn from a general list of small businesses available from the National Bureau of Statistics (2005). This process proved productive, yielding 56,460 randomly selected small and medium businesses of a size of 1-20 employees. Out of these, 174 respondents were sampled for the survey. Accordingly, the only requirement for being interviewed was that the owner was a circular migrant or had received or was receiving remittances. Based on these criteria, the number of circular migrants sampled was 113, while the number receiving remittances was 37 and 24served as a control group. For Kilwa, given the relatively small size of towns such as Kisiwani, Kivinje and Masoko and other surrounding villages, it was decided to take as full a census as possible until the target of 150 was reached. Further, it seemed unwise at that stage to screen respondents according to the size of their establishments, however defined. On the Kilwa part, no attempt was made to select a control group. The total sample size reached for the study was 324. 2.5 Sampling Procedures The techniques used to identify respondents were thus a combination of snowball and ad hoc sampling. The snowball technique was useful because it was hard to locate subjects with specific characteristics. For Kilwa, where snowballing proved ineffective, the researcher resorted to combing all establishments for circular migrants. In this way virtually all of Kilwa was covered to fill a quota. All these circumstances dictated the application of different methodologies in the two areas. In the Dar es Salaam City, where there are hundreds of thousands of establishments, the decision was made to screen businesses for size using the number of workers and to focus on those employing 20 or fewer. More than likely many circular migrants were excluded because they had larger establishments. For Kilwa, on the other hand, had screening been attempted, it is certain that the target of 150 would not have been met. For these reasons, the two samples could be merged and treated as one. The findings are presented and discussed comparatively 2.6 Methods of Data Collection A questionnaire was developed and pretested in both Dar es Salaam City and the Kilwa. Apart from general information (age, gender, education), it featured five sections: migration and return, establishment of the business in tourism, remittances, retained links abroad, and questions about the operation of the business. 2.7. Data Analysis Data collected through the survey using structured interviews were prepared by cleaning, coding and entering them in a computer using SPSS programme. Categorical data analysis was adopted because background characteristics and the observed outcomes were measured categorically. Categorical variables are variables that can be measured using only a limited number of values or categories as opposed to continuous variables (Powers and Xie, 2000) 3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 Socio-economic Characteristics of Respondents All 150 Kilwa and 174 Dar es Salaam respondents grew up in Tanzania. Most were males, but the ratio of males to females was higher for the Dar es Salaam City (6:4 compared to 4.5 for Kilwa). Figure 1: Composition of Study Respondents for Dar es Salaam City and Kilwa Dar es Salaam Respondents Kilwa Respondents Male Male Female Female Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Not all interviewees were circular migrants. Forty-five persons representing 26 percent for the Dar es Salaam City were people who never migrated and 97 representing 65 percent for Kilwa. Respondents overall were young and fairly well educated. In the Dar es Salaam City, 63 percent were below the age of 45. Fifty seven percent had received a secondary education; 17 percent had acquired a first degree and 10 percent a postgraduate degree. The pattern was somewhat incomparable for Kilwa: 61 percent were below age 45, 67 percent had completed only primary school education. 29 percent had secondary education but only 4 percent had a first degree. 3.2 Migration Migration, for those who had returned, was highest during the decade beginning in the mid l995s. Before 1995 the number of those who left Tanzania was relatively small. External migration rose sharply between 1995 and 2000. It remained at a plateau for the next five years, and then peaked again between 2009 and 2011. This second peak was sharpest in the Dar es Salaam City; nearly three times more circular migrants left between 2009-2011 than in the previous quinquennium. The steep climb in external migration among circular migrants merits comment. This was the time when the diaspora were encouraged by the government of Tanzania to invest in various sectors of the Tanzania economy. Many migrants went out with an intention of earning money and remitting back to their relatives and/or establishing investments in this country. 3.4 Reasons for Emigration As shown in Table 1, economic reasons were greater for Kilwa than in Dar es Salaam by 48 percent compared to 18 percent. The Dar es Salaam City, on the other hand, showed significantly higher levels of educational motives, 31 percent compared to 19 percent. Two reasons may account for these differences between the two areas. First, it is well known that tourism as an industry is highly sensitive to recession in certain areas of Tanzania. As one of Tanzania's main tourism area, the Kilwa area would bear the brunt of the decline in tourism. Second, because the Dar es Salaam City hosts the highest concentration of the country's educational institutions, one would expect it also to have the highest concentration of people wanting to pursue further education abroad. Odds ratios show that educational reasons and a combination of reasons are more associated with migration of circular migrants. Table 1: Reasons for Migration Reasons 1. Family 2. Economic 3. Educational 4. Socio-political 5. Combination 6. Other TOTAL % 14 48 18 12 2 6 100 Kilwa N 21 72 27 18 3 9 % 15 18 31 5 18 13 150 100 Dar es Salaam N 26 31 54 9 31 23 Odds Ratio 0.34 4.6 0.25 20.68 0.24 174 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 The United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada were host countries for the overwhelming majority of Tanzanian migrants. The two regions exhibited marked differences. However, the United States was the host country for 73 percent of Dar es Salaam respondents compared to 27 percent of Kilwa respondents. Nineteen percent of the latter chose Canada compared to only 7 percent of the former. The figures of the United Kingdom were about comparable: 26 percent and 21 percent for the Kilwa area and Dar es Salaam City, respectively. These differences in the proportion of circular migrants received by host countries are consistent with the motives alleged. Whereas Canada would have been attractive as a country of great opportunity to those prompted by economic motives, the United States would have remained the country with the greatest educational opportunities. 4.5 Attitudes toward Host Country Migrants were asked what they liked most and least about their host countries. Table 2 presents their likes and Table 3 their dislikes. Most Kilwa respondents (30%) relished the economic opportunities, followed by the level of discipline (19%), educational opportunities, and living standards (17% each). Dar es Salaam respondents welcomed the standard of living (27%), followed by cultural and aesthetic reasons (19%), educational opportunities (14%), and discipline (l0%). Why should cultural and aesthetic reasons figure so prominently among Dar es Salaam respondents in contrast to a mere four percent of their Kilwa equivalents? Table 2: Most liked Aspects of Host Countries Kilwa Aspect Frequency Valid Percent 1. Work Opportunities 45 30 2. Educational Opportunities 25 17 3. Standard of living 25 17 4. Cultural/Aesthetic 6 4 5. Discipline 29 19 6. Other 20 13 TOTAL 150 100 Frequency 38 24 47 33 18 14 174 Dar es Salaam Valid Percent 22 14 27 19 10 8 100 Odds Ratio 1.2 2 2.93 0.11 1.13 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Note: The term "cultural and aesthetic reasons" groups together such answers as "different cultural" "the scenery'' and "the people." including those who left as students, is distributed among Dar es Salaam respondents and it can be opined that having traveled less, they would have been struck more by the experience. As stated above, One reason perhaps lies in the fact that a higher proportion of younger people, Table 3: Least Liked Aspects of Host Countries Aspect 1. Climate 2. Discrimination 3. Difficulty in adjusting 4. Social life 5. Dissatisfaction with 6. social amenities 7. Nothing special 8. Other TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 61 41 30 21 11 6 12 7 3 21 12 150 2 15 8 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 45 26 64 37 19 11 16 9 0 14 16 174 8 0 9 100 Odds Ratio 2.9 0.81 0.77 0 0 0 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Kilwa respondents, motivated mainly by economic reasons, liked economic opportunities and the "discipline" in the society best. Discipline here refers to the work ethic in the industrialized countries, including such values as punctuality, reliability, and universalist standards. It contrasts with opposing values such as lack of punctuality, irresponsibility, and corruption of which most migrants would be keenly aware upon their return. Odds ratios indicate that all aspects were associated with liking host countries except discipline. As shown in Table 3, the two outstanding problems were the cold climate and racism. For more than 40 percent of Kilwa respondents the climate was their number one dislike; they were followed by 21 percent for whom racial discrimination was the main concern. Among Dar es Salaam respondents the priorities were reversed, with discrimination cited by 37 percent and the climate by 26 percent. Calculated odds ratios are supportive of this contention. Scholars and governments viewing external migration as a potential contributor to national development usually cite the return of higher levels of training, a reverse of the brain-drain in fact. Respondents were asked whether they had acquired skills and what these were. An overwhelming majority (81% among Dar es Salaam and 62% among Kilwa respondents) answered positively. Skill acquisition was significantly higher among Dar es Salaam circular migrants, consistent with the related finding that education played a bigger motivating role among those drawn from the Dar es Salaam. More critical is the nature of skills and their relevance to local industry and economic development. In this study of Tanzanian circular migrants, most of the skills transferred were “relatively simple ones” acquired primarily in low-tech industries Table 4: Types of Skills Acquired Abroad Skills 1. Craft 2. Service-Oriented 3. On-the-job 4. Technical 5. Professional TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 46 38 26 21 26 21 6 5 18 15 122 100 Frequency 36 24 42 28 44 Dar es Salaam Valid Percent 21 14 24 16 25 174 100 Odds Ratio 1.18 1.75 2.87 0.52 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Acquired skills by Tanzanians were grouped into five categories according to the necessary degree of education (see Table 4). The lowest, Level 1, refers to craft skills that could have been acquired through apprenticeship. Mechanics and plumbing fall into this category. Level 2 includes serviceoriented skills such as cosmetology, catering, and entertainment. Level 3 includes on-the-job skills such as marketing and real estate. Level 4 encompasses technical skills requiring institutional training such as interior decorating and fashion design. And finally, Level 5 comprises professional skills such as engineering, nursing, and piloting. The types of skills acquired and their proportions were not evenly distributed between the two sampled areas. Level 5, or professional skills, describes those acquired by 15 percent Kilwa and 25 percent Dar es Salaam circular migrants. Job-related skills were acquired by 21 percent Kilwa and 24 percent Dar es Salaam circular migrants. Technical skills were acquired by 5 percent of Kilwa and 16 percent of Dar es Salaam respondents. Combined, the technical and professional levels account for 20 percent of Kilwa and 41 percent of Dar es Salaam respondents who had acquired skills abroad. Our data therefore suggests that the transfer of skills is not equally distributed. There were disproportionately more Kilwa than Dar es Salaam respondents with craft skills (38% to 21%), and similarly more Kilwa than Dar es Salaam respondents with service-oriented ones (21% to 14%). Dar es Salaam respondents mentioned more of onthe-job, technical and professional skills than others. Calculated odds ratios indicate a positive association between light skills and the migrants’choices. It is only professional skills that appeared to be liked by Dar es Salaam circular migrants perhaps because of their strong educational background. Plate 2: With one of the Tourism circular migrant owning a restaurant at Kilwa Kivinje Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 4.6 The Return Although cold climate of the north was ranked as the feature most disliked by Tanzanian migrants, it did not feature at all among reasons cited for the decision to return. As shown in Table 5, completion of studies, family, and "time to return" are the three most prominent reasons given. Climate figures in only 5 percent of Kilwa and 7 percent of Dar es Salaam responses. Table 5: Reasons for returning to Tanzania Reasons 1. Studies completed 2. Family 3. Time to return 4. Economic reasons 5. Climate 6. Other TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 63 42 36 24 14 9 24 16 7 5 6 4 150 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 14 8 40 23 59 34 16 9 12 7 33 19 174 100 Odds Ratio 5 3.84 0.16 2.58 3.25 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 Some puzzling differences between the two areas are evident. Whereas 48 percent of Kilwa responses cited economic opportunities as the reason for migrating, completion of studies is the reason given for return in 42 percent of responses. On the other hand, 31 percent of the Dar es Salaam responses gave educational opportunities as the reason for migrating; now 34 percent cite “time to return” rather than completion of studies as the reason for returning. In summary, return migrants are motivated far more by the pull factors of home than by the push factors of the host country. This is set out in Table 6, where multiple answers are grouped together. Dar es Salaam respondents said that they were responding to the pull of home, family, economic prospects, and the like (80%), and not so much to the cold climate, dislike of or inability to adjust in the host country (20%). For Kilwa respondents, pull factors were significant among 92% and push factors very low (cited by a mere 8%). Where push factors do operate, they were somewhat greater among Dar es Salaam circular migrants. The category “Other,” which grouped “studies completed” with a range of personal factors, was cited by 51 percent. Calculated odds ratios are supportive of the association of these factors and the decision to return to Tanzania. Table 6: Factors Affecting Decision to Return to Tanzania Factors 1. Pull factors 2. Push factors TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 138 92 12 8 150 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 139 80 35 20 174 100 Odds Ratio 2.89 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 4.7 The Business This section examines the types of business circular migrants operated as well as the role of capital and labor in the enterprises linked to migration. Those who hold that migration enhances development argue that it is a source of capital for small enterprises, which in turn contributes to the economy by increasing production and reducing unemployment. It should be noted that no single dominant factor seemed responsible for the decision by the majority of return migrants, whether in the Dar es Salaam or the Kilwa, to enter into business; many had more than one reason. Both areas are parallel in terms of the responses, as Table 7 shows. Fifty percent of Kilwa and 53 percent of Dar es Salaam respondents explained their actions in terms of market forces such as demand, good investments, and more earnings. Personal reasons, such as training, enjoyment, and family, are cited in 50 percent of Kilwa and 47 percent of Dar es Salaam responses. Calculated odds ratios confirm this assertion. Table 7: Reasons for going into Business Reasons 1. Family friends 2. Opportunity 3. Independence 4. Enjoyment 5. Higher income 6. Convenience 7. Use of Training TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 11 7 60 40 6 4 22 15 8 5 15 10 28 19 150 98 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 23 13 68 39 14 8 5 3 16 9 17 10 31 18 174 100 Odds Ratio 0.53 2.06 0.1 8.87 0.56 0.96 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 4.7 Types of Businesses Since Dar es Salaam is the seat of the country's commercial activity, wholesale and retail trading and transportation were, understandably, the two primary businesses operated by circular migrants. Art and entertainment were next, in 12 percent of cases. Manufacture ranks low, sharing fifth place with cosmetology. On the Kilwa side, the main type of business operations carried on by circular migrants is not, as might be thought, the villas and hotels known to proliferate along the Coastline. Rather, 35 percent are in wholesale and retail trade, compared to 18 percent who operate guesthouses, 12 percent who operate restaurants and catering services, and 10 percent who are involved in transport. The rest are spread thinly over a very wide range of productive activities and services: real estate (7% arts and crafts (6%), agriculture and manufacture (5% each), entertainment (4%), and construction (3%). 4.8 Sources of Start-up Capital Savings abroad are the primary source of capital for between eight and nine cases of every ten. For small enterprises, overseas migration plays a significant role as the single largest source of capital formation. 4.9 Remittances This survey considered the role of remittances since it cannot be assumed that capital inputs into local business operations are made only after migrants return home or that these inputs are made just once. Indeed, it was observed that a small proportion of these circular migrants (22% of Kilwa respondents; 11% of Dar es Salaam respondents) start their operations before returning home. It is reasonable to assume that at least some start-up is affected through remittances. There are also those businesses owned and run by persons who never migrated that are supported by remittances. Roughly 40 percent of the Kilwa and 30 percent of the Dar es Salaam respondents received remittances and identified the persons making these. Relatives constituted the most frequently cited source, as Table 8 reveals. Odds ratios calculated also confirm the association between circular migrants and persons running enterprises in places of origin. Table 8: Relationship of Person Remitting Reasons 1. Spouse 2. Relative 3. Friend 4. Business Partner 6. Other TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 20 13 102 68 7 5 21 14 0 0 150 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 35 20 85 49 17 10 28 16 9 5 174 100 Odds Ratio 2.9 2.9 0.55 0 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 The role of kinship is a bit more pronounced in the tourism zone (Kilwa) than in the Dar es Salaam City where 68 percent of remitters are relatives compared to 49 percent. Unfortunately, this study is unable to comment fully on the degree of kinship involved. However, 81 percent of Kilwa and 89 percent of Dar es Salaam remittances originate in the United States. Canada figures more prominently as a source for 15 percent of the Kilwa circular migrants compared to 2 percent in the Da es Salaam City. Somewhat surprising is the finding indicating that goods are so markedly in Kilwa remittances: 33 percent are sole goods; 33 percent include cash and goods together (Table 9). Table 9: General Type of Remittance 1. Cash 2. Goods 3. Cash and Goods 4. Not Stated TOTAL Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 38 25 49 33 49 33 14 9 150 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 50 29 14 8 110 63 0 0 174 100 Odds Ratio 0.04 7.6 0 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 In the Dar es Salaam City, cash and goods are remitted to 63 percent of the recipients. This emphasis on goods could be because many businesses embrace some form of trade, for which direct import through relatives is sometimes more profitable. Cash alone is remitted to 25 percent of Kilwa and 29 percent of Dar es Salaam recipients. Calculated odds ratios confirm the findings. Remittances for two-thirds of Kilwa and three-quarters of Dar es Salaam recipients value less than half of the yearly net earnings of the business. Table 10: Type of Tourism Investments Kilwa Frequency Valid Percent 1. Hotels and Guest Houses 9 6 2. Tour Guide Services 14 9 3. Restaurants 36 24 4. Taxi and Minibus services 41 27 5. Water sports 18 12 6. Art and craft production and distribution 32 22 7. Food and Beverages Services 0 0 TOTAL 150 100 Dar es Salaam Frequency Valid Percent 26 15 5 3 31 18 75 43 12 7 17 10 8 4 174 100 Odds Ratio 0.12 2.44 2.15 0.36 0.78 0 Source: Circular Migration Survey, 2011 The study sites varied somewhat in terms of the types of tourism investments made. Twentyseven percent of Kilwa respondents invested in minibus services, in comparison to 43 percent of Dar es Salaam respondents (Table 10). Dar es Salaam respondents exhibit higher percentages than their counterparts in establishment of hotels and guest houses as well as food and beverage services. However, Kilwa circular migrants seem to be more aggressive than Dar es Salaam circular migrants in some types of tourism investments such as tour guide, restaurant and art and craft. Perhaps this difference could be attributed to the more varied tourist activities that attract tourist flows to Kilwa area. 5.0 CONCLUSION The study has noted that Dar es Salaam City is an important transit site for tourists and as such circular migrants wishing to invest in tourism enterprises have bright avenues. Dar es Salaam City is very active in terms of providing support services for circular migrants in view of the supportive migration environment the Tanzanian government has already initiated. Kilwa on the other hand has demonstrated a high potentiality for eco-tourism. The ruins, monuments, beaches and marine resources found in Kilwa which attract a significant number of tourists offer a number of potential tourism investments which circular migrants originating from this coastal area have begun to capitalize on. The Government therefore needs to improve tourist infrastructure such as airfield, roads, water supply and electricity which appear today as constraints to the development of the industry in Kilwa. The study has found that exposure; work experience abroad, remittance and regular visits are the most significant predictors of tourism entrepreneurial ventures among the circular migrants and the diaspora in Tanzania. The government should include these elements in migration cum tourism policy to augment entrepreneurial ventures. To boost circular migrants’ investments in the tourism industry, the study noted that there is a need to relax tariffs on their tools of trade they come with. 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