Times’ Harvest, ISP 3360
Winter 2005, Section 001
Class #2: February 25, 2005
Bravely into the future… / From The New Yorker
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Agenda (hint: it’s too long)
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Names
Slow starts
Taking an online class
Review of Syllabus for 3360
Next meetings
Third books
Moodling
Using unchat
Futures Studies, The Third Wave (twice)
Review of Syllabus for 3340
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Names
• Me: David Bowen
• Check off your name on the sheet
• Pictures – not a requirement
o
o
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Angela Ireland
Jeanine Burrell
Kinshasa Hughes
Sandra Williams
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Slow Starts
• Many off to a slow start, at least on Moodle
o
(list in February 11 email)
• I have called all slow starters
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Enjoyed discussing course content
Good news: many are doing the reading if not
posting or Essay
Postings: class discussion (*), develop ideas for
Essay, part of grade
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Slow Starts
• I have called all slow starters
o
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Some are having problems – do not let this go,
GET HELP (e.g. call me)
Some seem to be “hiding” – please don’t!
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Next meetings
6 – 8 PM Friday evenings
• March 11 on unchat
• April 15 IN 122 Cohn, includes Student
Evaluation of Teaching
• April 29 in 122 Cohn, Final Exam for AGS
3340
Miss a meeting? Makeup is a one-page
summary of the notes
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Third Books
• Both are on the shelves at the Barnes and
Noble campus bookstore
• ISP 3360. Edward Cornish, Futuring: The
Exploration of the Future, 2004.
o
Essay questions will be posted.
• ISP 3340. Thomas Friedman, The Lexus
and the Olive Tree, 1999.
o
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Quiz/exam questions posted already
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Taking an online course
• A lot of working alone (most of course is in
writing) but understand when you need
help, and get it quickly
o
Methods for contacting Instructor
• Do at least something most weeks
• The online discussion will be the most
motivating feature – express yourself!
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Taking an online course (cont’d)
Every week:
• Check email, assignment schedule, forums
• Reading – active reading. What are you going to
post, applies to what essay topic?
• Posting (two posts does not mean two separate
times). This takes the place of class discussion,
helps in writing essays
• Thinking about an essay
• Passive doesn’t work, be more active…
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What counts?
• Essays
• Postings in Moodle forums (34 total)
o
o
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First four special-topic postings
Later postings in Main online discussion
All postings have been good so far
• Attendance at classes
o
Makeup is a one-page summary of notes, with
any changes from the actual class
• Weekly reports
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Useful Moodle Links
What have you turned in on Moodle so far?
Recent Activity
• All postings since your last
session
• Who is in the chat room
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Activity Report
• Under “Administration” on lower left
o
o
o
Outline: list of all things you have done
Complete: the things themselves (e.g. the
posting itself)
Logs: what you have done and looked at
• Today only
• All – since the beginning of the course
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Course stuff in Moodle (cont’d)
• “People” block
o
Participants: see list of participants
• Full profile link - this does nothing (privacy?)
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Edit profile
• “Administration” block
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o
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Activity report – everything you have done
Change your password
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Check the (Moodle) Chat
• Under “Recent Activity”
block at lower right
• Shows who is in the chat
room
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Forgot Your Moodle Password?
• No one can get it back for you
o
What to do – reset it to a new one
• Method 1:
o
o
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Send me an email with a new password that
you would like to use, and I can change it for
you.
Make sure your name is in the email too! The
course helps also
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Forgot Your Moodle Password?
• Method 2:
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o
o
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Go to the Moodle login, but enter only your
Username. Click on the Login button anyway.
On the page that appears, down near the bottom
left, click on “Send my details via email.”
Complete the next page and click OK.
Your password will be changed and the new
one will be emailed to you.
This is obviously faster
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unchat
• A “moderated chat”
o
o
Chat – online discussion, everyone present at
the same time (“synchronous”)
Moderated – One person (the moderator)
organizes discussion
• We will use unchat for the third Time’s
Harvest class, Friday March 11 6 – 8 PM
• Agenda on course web site beforehand
• {Works best if display set to at least 1024 x
768 (see slides 31- 33)}
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How to unchat
• Go to course web site at
http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/thw05
• Click on one of the two unchat links
• Click on 
(the unchat
folks do not like their links to look like buttons)
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How to unchat
• Fill in login
information
and click on “LOGIN >>>”
o
o
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unchat accounts are already set up
Username = first last e.g. david bowen
Password = AccessID e.g. aa2012
• You can change this (see next screen) – why?
Access ID is not private at WSU
o
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Password is case-sensitive but not Username
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How to unchat
• Under TOPIC LIST,
click on Time’s
Harvest link.
o
On this screen, you can change your password
or other information using
“EDIT MY PROFILE >>>”
• Under “CURRENT UNCHATS” click on
Time’s Harvest link again,
then on
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How to unchat
• Separate unchat window opens, with Rules
on top. Terms for Rules:
o
o
o
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Normally must post messages (“Speak”)
through Moderator (David Bowen). This makes
it orderly, and so useful for a class.
Set Moderator: Will not change. Deal with me.
Can “Shout” 1 message past Moderator.
Can “Whisper” privately to another participant.
• Read Rules, close window (see next slide)
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How to unchat
Rules window:
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How to unchat
[I have a question – Daryl Pace] BOUNCED BACK from moderator with
reason: Please be more specfic
[..] – private – only you see this
3. “Chat space” – messages
appear here
1. Type your
message here
2. Your message:
speak, shout, whisper
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How to unchat
• Shutting down:
o
o
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Click on chat window “close box” at top right
Logout on main unchat window and close
browser
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unchat Practice Sessions
• Your accounts are already set up
• Try an unchat login in ahead of time
• “Attend” one practice session (10 – 15
minutes should be enough)
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o
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Monday February 28, 6 – 7 PM
Friday March 4, 6 – 7 PM
Saturday March 5, 11 AM – Noon
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unchat For Real
• Third class, Friday March 11, 6 – 8 PM
• Download Agenda as Word document on
course web site
o
http://www.is.wayne.edu/drbowen/thw05
• Participate!
• System keeps timed attendance and a
transcript
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unchat Problems?
• Dialup connection quits?
o
Just redial your modem. Don’t do anything else.
• Unreliable connection from home?
o
Go somewhere else! (e.g. campus, WSU Center)
• If you attend a practice & have technical
problems on 3/11, you get credit for attending
• I expect to be connecting from home.
o
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248-549-8518 / aa2012@wayne.edu
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unchat: Screen Resolution #1
• You need to see the bottom of the unchat
chat window – the SPEAK, SHOUT and
WHISPER links.
o
o
This works best at a screen resolution of at least
1025 x 768 pixels.
At 800 x 600 pixels, you may have to move the
taskbar at the bottom, to the side of the screen,
or drag the chat window up on the screen.
• How to change screen resolution is next
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unchat: Screen Resolution #2
• To change screen resolution, go to “My
Computer” and start “Control Panel”
o
o
In Windows XP, My Computer is at the Start
button
In Windows 2000 and earlier, this is a desktop
icon
• In Control Panel,
double-click “Display”
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unchat: Screen Resolution #3
• Click on “Settings”
tab and drag slider
• Click OK (screen
goes dark for a
second)
• On Monitor Settings
popup, click “Yes” if
it looks OK.
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Content!
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Background
Facts (or at least I think they are facts)
Hypothesis
Quibbles (one way to escape the
Conclusions below)
• Application or Conclusions: the kicker
(Iraq)
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Background: Futures Studies
• Foundations:
o
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o
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“I will go to Traverse City” – statements about
the future may or may not come true. Their
present truth is unknowable, better seen as
statement of present intent
A fan of futures – Futures Studies
Forecasting, not prediction of a specific event
Possible, probably, preferable futures
Latin: facta are past events, Vs futura
From Bertrand de Jouvenal, The Art of
Forecasting (1967).
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Background: The $1 Economy
• Demonstration
• If economy produces what we want, we are
all better off
• Hesitation, doubt  economic pain
• Must have confidence in the market, may
require self-regulation or government
regulation
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Background:The Third Wave
• Compare stages of society
o
Look for trends
• Characteristics of hunter-gatherer society
are highly uncertain
• Compare Agricultural and Industrial society
• Futuring extends this to Third Wave
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Background: Toffler’s Spheres
Alvin Toffler, Previews and Premises (1984)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Techno-sphere (includes energy, production,
distribution)
Socio-sphere (includes family, social institutions)
Info-sphere (communication)
Bio-sphere
Power-sphere (government and authority)
Psycho-sphere (relationships, intimacy, inner life)
Rough picture, culture cuts across all
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Facts: Comparison #1
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Type of
government
What gives
government the
right to rule?
Foundation of
government
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Facts: Comparison #2
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Why get
married?
Children per
couple
Family structure
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Facts: Comparison #3
Aspect of
Society
How do things
work?
Agricultural
Industrial
Status of women,
minorities
Science /
Technology
Relationship
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Facts: Comparison #4
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Range of travel
Social mobility
Literacy
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Facts: Comparison #5
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Basis for wealth
Production is for
Use of money
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Facts: Comparison #6
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Workplace
Work output is
for
Distribution of
wealth
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Facts: Comparison #7
Aspect of
Society
Agricultural
Industrial
Typical life span
Type of Religion
Status of
judiciary
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Hypothesis: What is Going On?
• “Structuration Theory” by Anthony
Giddens, Sociology
• Society as individuals creates new
institutions
• New institutions constrain individuals
• Example: car
o
o
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Popular, led to roads, led to sprawl
Now we have to have cars
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Hypothesis: So what?
• Whole basis of society changed
o
Probably impossible to “put yourself in their
shoes”
• Trend is towards more individual autonomy
o
o
Increase in activity, production and prosperity
Because we can get what we want
• The Third Wave has lasted so long because
this is what Toffler concentrated on
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Hypothesis: So what?
• Whole basis of society changed
o
o
o
Probably impossible to “put yourself in their
shoes”
Impossible for earlier stages to imagine our
new choices that they don’t have
Impossible for us to forget that we have the
new choices
• Not an empty theory – implications for Iraq
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Quibbles
• Not a smooth ride like an elevator - conflict
o
o
Changing the rules of life
Direction and interaction of trends often not
clear
• Not lock step – sectors jostle around
o
Can we just change one sector - Iraq
• Backsliding, e.g. Russia
• Great variety in style – culture
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Quibbles
• Hunter-gatherer, agricultural and industrial
societies still exist. If fact, they account for
the large majority of earth’s population
o
Also within each stage, but transformed – handmade boots
• Many wrong guesses about the future
o
Early guesses about the role of computers
• Number
• Use
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Quibbles
• Plateaus or continuous change?
o
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Could be a combination
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Conclusions #1 (Iraq)
• One attitude is “cultural relativity” – all
cultures and stages are equally valid.
• My conclusion is that the later stages are
better ethically because people are treated
as individuals
o
o
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NOT that the people are fundamentally any
different- they are not
It’s “the system” – the social arrangements
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Conclusions #2 (Iraq)
• Good: the hypothesis says it is a worthy
goal to bring Iraq from an agricultural
society to an industrial society
• But: the hypothesis also says it is
impossible to change only one aspect
(strong-man to democracy)
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Conclusions #3 (Iraq)
• The hypothesis says:
o
o
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We might be able to change Iraq to a better
industrial society by changing their whole
society
If we try to change only one aspect (strong-man
to democracy), we will fail
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The Third Wave
• Each stage is different, but is the reality for
those living it, a complete change (more
later). Each wave grips those inside it.
• Toffler: transitions are not orderly but full of
conflict. The rules change (example)
• What did Toffler get right? DB: autonomy
or increased choice, and results individuation
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The Third Wave
• What did Toffler get wrong (at least so far)?
o
Some examples – Jennifer Levine has pointed
out that there is less of a generation gap now
than what Toffler wrote about
• “What is a family” is still a source of social conflict
o
Bigger is “small is beautiful” ideas applied to
businesses
• Where physical distribution or service is required,
consolidation continues
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Trends?
• Being (electronically) connected
• Technological convergence
• Biological intervention and engineering
o
o
Cosmetic surgery (genetic change?)
“Copy and paste” across species  all new
• Cognitive science
o
o
Understanding uniqueness
Controlling mental life
• More choices, more autonomy
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Trends?
• Family change
• Disintermediation
o
Intermediary – distributor
• Science driving technology – “knowledge
society”
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Issues
• Physical consumption – “the human
footprint”
• Individual responsibility Vs “safety net”
• “Race to the bottom” Vs “floating all boats”
• International governance
o
o
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Autonomy of national governments not
absolute
Coordination to solve problems
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Issues
• Privacy, identity, control over personal
information
o
DNA banks
• Will US pull back from innovation?
• Gender identity / roles
• Free innovation Vs social controls?
o
Would controls (e.g. making human cloning
illegal) work?
• Interplay of interdisciplinarity and
disciplinarity
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The End