Exploring the Internet
The Future of the Internet
91.113-021
Instructor: Michael Krolak
91.113-031
Instructor: Patrick Krolak
See also http://www.cs.uml.edu/~pkrolak/
Authors: P. D. & M. S. Krolak Copyright 2005
Tonight
• The Internet
and the Future
• A capstone for
the course
Before the Internet – http://xo.typepad.com_ blog_amusing_.htmB
Class Announcements
• .
The Future of the Internet
The Internet has gone through many changes in the last 30
years. We are now in the transformation from its primarily
as a communications network and webbed structure of
documents to a wireless applications driven age. The
applications are driven by computers controlling
networks of computers and smart devices to create:
1. intelligent cars and homes,
2. create and find information on the deep web,
3. provide greater homeland security and safety
4. allow people greater production and efficiency in order to
compete in the global economy.
Technologies driving the Age of
Connection
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Internet2 -- orders of magnitude
faster than 58Kb.
SAND storage technology fast
cheap storage in Terabytes.
Array computing – a super computer
in a box.
The merger of large flat screen TV,
computer displays, and 3D graphics
cards.
The merger of telephone and
computer devices.
The creation of micro-sensors,
wireless integration of phones and
smart sensors (blue-tooth),
computers networked for command
& control of machines.
Internet2
• A project launched in 1996 to
create and develop the
applications for a network
thousands of times faster than
the 58Kb modem.
• Allows 200 member
universities to share data and
facilities for research.
• The Internet2 Commons
allows high band width video
conferences to hold major
teaching and learning events,
research meetings at multiple
sites.
Internet2 (more)
Internet2
Internet2 is a collaboration among more than 200 U.S. universities to develop
networking and advanced applications for learning and research. Since much
teaching, learning, and collaborative research may require real-time multimedia
and high-bandwidth interconnection, a major aspect of Internet2 is adding
sufficient network infrastructure to support such applications. But Internet2 also
intends to investigate and develop new ways to use the Internet and the
Internet2 infrastructure for its educational purposes. Although Internet2 is not
envisioned as a future replacement for the Internet, its organizers hope to share
their developments with other networks, including the Internet. Internet2 will
include and further develop the National Science Foundation's very high-speed
Backbone Network Service (vBNS) that currently interconnects research
supercomputer centers in the U.S. The involved institutions plan to continue
using the existing Internet for "ordinary" services such as e-mail, personal Web
access, and newsgroups.
http://whatis.techtarget.com/definition/0,,sid9_gci214029,00.html
The Intelligent Home
The home of the future will have far
more computer appliances and use
a home network for security, energy
efficiency, etc.
The Intelligent Home
• The intelligent home is a
networked collection of
computers, sensors, and
smart appliances.
• The user can use the web
cams and security devices to
monitor the house and inspect
it via wireless devices, e.g.
PDAs. Check on latch key
children and sitters. Turn on
heat/AC from a cell phone
while driving home to save
energy turn on the lights and
set the mode to match the
guests, etc.
Intelligent Home – Smart Appliances
• Ovens that turn on from
your phone or Internet, it
holds the food at a cool
temperature until you call.
• Smart cribs you can
watch baby from other
rooms,
http://www.pcmag.com/slideshow_viewer/0,2393,l=&s=400&a=142290&po=10,00.asp
The Intelligent Car
• The modern car can have 20
computers. In the near future
cars will have LANs that will
do more than just monitor and
control basic functions such
as braking and exhaust
emissions.
• In the near future cars will
have wireless connections to
road side (Bluetooth), other
cars, and to the internet and
celluar systems that will allow
two way communications.
• OnStar is now a feature of GM
luxury vehicles.
Next Generation of Cruise Control
• A prototype “fusion processor” from
Fujitsu Ten Ltd. depends on optical
and radar sensors to move a car
automatically at the varying speeds
of traffic. A camera and radar report
on the width, distance , and speed of
objects ahead,
• and the processor combines the
data, feeding it to a unit that controls
the car.
• Millimeter-wave radar
• Image-processing unit and stereo
camera
Keeping Cars from Crashing
September 2001 article in IEEE Spectrum on adaptive cruise controls. Discussion focuses on radar and lidar sensors.
© IEEE (PDF, 432Kb).
Intelligent car (more)
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In Minnesota, state police cars,
ambulances, and government vehicles
will soon carry a small piece of extra
cargo—a sensing device that collects
data as it rolls down the state's
roadways. Ford Motor Company officials
call the program a prototype for a nextgeneration travel-advisory system.
During their daily rounds, stateowned vehicles will gather trafficrelated data like speed, location, and
direction of travel. The sensors will
also record weather information,
such as windshield-wiper and
headlight use, outside temperature,
and traction-control-system data.
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Ford Motor Company's Smart, Safe Research
Vehicle is an enhanced version of the
company's Explorer model. The concept
automobile includes such "intelligent" safety
features as a navigation system that uses
real-time traffic information to suggest
alternate routes around congested areas.
Photograph courtesy Ford Motor Company
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/05/0521_040521_smartcars.html
The Cyber Military and Home
Defense
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The military is changing its theory, order
of battle, and deployment strategies in
the post cold war world.
The Stryker Brigade which was deployed
in late 2004 in Iraq. It is an example of
how information over an enterprise
network allows units at the point of the
spear to adjust and take the imitative
without the usual hierarchical chain of
command.
The network allows satellite, robotic
vehicles, and other sensors are
integrated in intelligence network.
Vehicle locations and GIS data are also
known.
Striker vehicles have wheels rather than
treads and are designed to be air
mobile. This has required some
modification to deal with the Iraq urban
battlefield. the steel rails on the sides to
prevent exposure to RPGs).
The Future of the Internet
and media
One of the bigger arguments about the future is how the
media will adapt to the challenge of the Internet. In prior
material we discussed how blogs effected the political
news in the last two elections. Record and movie sales are
dramatically down this year despite a major legal attack on
peer to peer web sites. In the 90s the traditional brick &
mortar retailer ignored then modified their business model
to adjust to this new marketing and sales channel. Can the
media make similar adjustments to compete successfully
in the future.
The Media Epic 2014
• In this vision of the world -- Google and Amazon.com
merge to become the global retailer of information and
by 2014 drive the current news media (newspapers,
television, and news magazines) into bankruptcy.
• The deep web is mined for ideas, facts, and options that
are created into customized information products.
• Some dismiss this as the ravings of the artificial
intelligence geeks. Attempts to define a new search
process to replace the current based text ones has not
lead to any promising concrete methodology at this
moment.
The Factory of the Future
and the Post-industrial
Age
In the 80’s the Japanese factories were making better,
cheaper cars and appliances than the US. This caused the
US industries to change many of their manufacturing
practices. Fixed automation was replaced being replaced by
robotic assembly. Unionized workers were negotiating for
earlier retirements, higher heath care benefits, and more job
security. They were so successful that some have
commented that the Big 3 auto makers are pension funds
that happen to make cars.
Free trade and Globalization have seen manufacturing move
rapidly off shore supported in large part by the Internet.
Union membership has dropped from 1 in 3 Americans to 1
in 7 and the new members largely come from service
industry. Pensions are in doubt and health care benefits are
becoming less common.
The Global Economy will increase
the reliance on the Internet
• Concepts like “Just-in-Time” (JIT), Six Sigma, etc. pioneered by
the Japanese were adopted by other industrialized nations in the
80s & 90s.
• The rise of China and India with a large skilled educated workforce
will soon advance from outsourcers to major competitors.
• The need for increased productivity, demands for greater port
security, and higher fuel costs will drive the industrialized nations
to place greater demands on their supply chains.
• The consumer will demand greater freedom in selection and more
individuality for their life styles.
• The Factory of the Future will be driven by customers designing
their purchases online and a highly automated robotic factory
making it, with shipping and order processing being done by
computerized systems, e.g. today’s state of the art newspaper
production is a leading example.
Internet and the Future
Society
Without doubt the Internet will play the role
as a major change agent in society. The
findings in the material that follows were
taken from Pew Internet & American Life
Project, 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700,
Washington, DC 20036 202-419-4500
http://www.pewinternet.org
Summary of PEW Experts’ Forecasts
􀂄 56% of them agreed that as telecommuting and home-schooling expand,
the boundary between work and leisure will diminish and family dynamics
will change because of that.
􀂄 50% of them believe that anonymous, free, music file-sharing on peer-topeer networks will still be easy to perform a decade from now.
􀂄 Just 32% of these experts agreed that people would use the internet to
support their political biases and filter out information that disagrees with
their views. Half the respondents disagreed with or disputed that
prediction.
􀂄 Only 32% agreed with a prediction that online voting would be secure and
widespread by 2014. Half of the respondents disagreed or disputed that
idea.
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In the emerging era of the blog, experts believe the internet will bring yet
more dramatic change to the news and publishing worlds. They predict
the least amount of change to religion.
Summary (more)
􀂄“Connections across media, entertainment, advertising, and commerce will become
stronger with future margins going to a new breed of ‘digital media titans’ … Wellbranded innovators such as Google and Starbucks have a chance to build all-new
new distribution models tied to ad revenue and retail sales.”
􀂄 “Health care is approximately 10 years behind other endeavors in being
transformed, and will experience its boom in the next 10 years.”
􀂄 “Government will be forced to become increasingly transparent, accessible over the
Net, and almost impenetrable if you're not on the Net.”
􀂄 “Digitization and the Internet make for a potent brew ... TiVo kills the commercial
television format. Napster, Kazaa, and iPod kill the ‘album’ format. In the future,
everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes in their own reality show.”
􀂄 “Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy. The Net will wear away institutions that have
forgotten how to sound human and how to engage in conversation”
􀂄 “The ‘always-on’ internet, combined with computers talking to computers, will be a
more profound transformation of society than what we've seen so far.”
􀂄 “The next decade should see the development of a more thoughtful internet. We've
had the blood rush to the head, we've had the hangover from that blood rush; this
next decade is the rethink.”
􀂄 “The dissemination of information will increasingly become the dissemination of
drivel. As more and more ‘data’ is posted on the internet, there will be increasingly
less ‘information.’”
Forecast of Internet on Society
Civic engagement
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Prediction: Civic involvement will increase substantially in the next 10
years, thanks to ever-growing use of the internet. That would include
membership in groups of all kinds, including professional, social, sports,
political and religious organizations – and perhaps even bowling leagues.
Experts’ reactions
– Agree
42%
– Disagree 29
– Challenge 13
– Did not respond
17
Since results are based on a non-random sample a margin of error cannot be
computed.
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Note: An extended rundown of the written answers to this question can be
found at: http://www.elon.edu/predictions/q11.aspx
Future of the Internet - 20 - Pew Internet & American Life Project Part 6. Civic engagement
Civic Involvement
• Rose Vines, a technology journalist, wrote, “Involvement
won't necessarily increase in numbers, but it will in depth
and richness of experience. As more groups discover
ways to use the internet to connect, disseminate and
influence, a new element will be added to group
interaction. We'll also see those traditionally excluded
from participation, including the physically disabled and
elderly, being brought on board.” Tobey Dichter, founder
of Generations on Line, went even further, writing, “This
is one of the most effective uses of the internet – building
community. Exciting global connections will do more for
international understanding and intergenerational
respect than any tool since the printing press.”
Future of the Internet - 20 - Pew Internet & American Life Project Part 6. Civic engagement
Security and the Internet Society
Prediction: As computing devices become embedded in
everything from clothes to appliances to cars to phones,
these networked devices will allow greater surveillance by
governments and businesses. By 2014, there will be
increasing numbers of arrests based on this kind of
surveillance by democratic governments as well as by
authoritarian regimes.
Experts’ reactions
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Agree
59%
Disagree 15
Challenge
Did not respond
8
17
Since results are based on a non-random sample a margin of error
cannot be computed.
Source: Future of the Internet - p22Pew Internet & American Life Project Part 7. Embedded Networks
Education and the Internet Society
Prediction: Enabled by information technologies, the pace of learning
in the next decade will increasingly be set by student choices. In ten
years, most students will spend at least part of their “school days” in
virtual classes, grouped online with others who share their interests,
mastery, and skills.
Experts’ reactions
•Agree
57%
•Disagree
18
•Challenge 9
•Did not respond
17
Since results are based on a non-random sample a margin of error cannot
be computed.
Future of the Internet – p35- Pew Internet & American Life Project Part 8. Formal Education
Health Care & Internet
Health system change
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Prediction: In 10 years, the increasing use of online medical resources will yield
substantial improvement in many of the pervasive problems now facing health
care—including rising health care costs, poor customer service, the high
prevalence of medical mistakes, malpractice concerns, and lack of access to
medical care for many Americans.
Experts’ reactions
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Agree
39%
Disagree
30
Challenge 11
Did not respond
19
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Since results are based on a non-random sample a margin of error cannot be computed.
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A December 2002 Pew Internet & American Life Project survey showed that 80% of
internet users, or about 102 million Americans, have searched online for at least one of
16 major health topics. An educated consumer stands a better chance of getting good
treatment and the internet can be a significant resource for that health education
process. An increase in the use of internet health resources is not a cure-all, however.
See “Internet Health Resources” (Pew Internet & American Life Project, July 16, 2004).
Available at: http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/95/report_display.asp
Politics and 2014
Prediction: By 2014, most people will use the internet
in a way that filters out information that challenges
their viewpoints on political and social issues. This
will further polarize political discourse and make it
difficult or impossible to develop meaningful
consensus on public problems.
• Experts’ reactions
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Agree 32%
Disagree
37
Challenge
13
Did not respond
18
Since results are based on a non-random sample a margin
of error cannot be computed.
Future of the Internet - Pew Internet & American Life Project p 33