On the links between unemployment,
partnership stability and the intention to
have a first child:
The case of Germany
Bernd Weiß
Ina Berninger
Michael Wagner
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
1
Problem
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The Problem:
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Background:
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Does unemployment affect the intention to have a first child?
Effects of greater job insecurity (fix-term contracts, part-time employment,
unemployment) on family formation
Understanding the causal mechanism that result in partnership instability
Previous research:
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Some studies report a positive effect of income on the intention of having a child (Balbo
2009; Eckhard/Klein 2006),
for women a negative effect seems to exist (Eckhard/Klein 2006),
another study found no significant association between unemployment and the
intention of having a child (Pailhé 2009).
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Two theoretical approaches
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The microeconomic approach:
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fertility intention is a result of a rational decision process about the costs and benefits
of a child [direct effect]
The microsociological approach:
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employment influences the intention to have child via the conflicts within and the
stability of a partnership [indirect effect]
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
The microeconomic approach
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Families produce „commodities“ (= goods that directly provide utility
and satisfaction and that cannot be purchased, e.g. children, health)
Commodities have a shadow price which is the price of necessary
goods and the lost wage of spending time outside the market
(opportunity costs)
Labour division within a household is efficient. Especially in Germany,
the male partner is still the main provider of family income.
Hypotheses:
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If a man is unemployed, the less likely is his intention to have a first child.
If a woman is unemployed, the more likely is her intention to have a first child.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
4
The microsociological approach I
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Social stress theory, family stress model (Conger/Rueter/Elder 1999)
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Spillover effect: Couples experiencing economic pressure or difficulties may become
frustrated, angry and emotionally troubled.
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Hypothesis:
Unemployment increases the level of conflict about financial issues in a partnership
and leads to more aggressive conflict behaviour.
As the male partner is often the main provider of family income we assume that his
unemployment has more serious consequences for the conflict level and conflict
behaviour than for the female partner.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
5
The microsociological approach II
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Exchange theory (Lewis and Spanier 1979) and the VulnerabilityStress-Adaptation Model of Marriage (Karney and Bradbury 1995)
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The higher the level of conflict about financial issues, the higher the subjective
instability of a partnership.
Aggressive conflict behaviour increases the level of conflict about financial issues in a
partnership.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
6
The microsociological approach III
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Partnership stability and childbearing intention
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Uncertainty reduction theory (Friedman, Hechter and Kanazawa 1994): Couples have
children because the birth of a child increases solidarity and reduces uncertainty in a
partnership.
Opposite hypothesis is more realistic: happily married couples are more likely to have a
child than unhappily married couples. One reason for that is that people want their
children to grow up in a favourable environment.
Hypothesis: Respondent’s partnership subjective instability affects the intention to have
a first child positively.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
7
Causal links between unemployment and
the intention to have a first child
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
8
Data and Methods
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German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), conducted in 2005
Target population: German-speaking respondents at the ages of 18 to 79
years who live in private households in Germany
The GGS: multi-stage sampling design.
Overall, 10.017 face-to-face interviews were implemented and the
response rate is about 55% (see Ruckdeschel 2006)
We selected a subgroup of respondents
– Respondents living in a heterosexual and cohabiting partnership
– Respondents without own children, stepchildren, adopted children or
children in care.
– Respondents in partnerships with a female partner who is not
pregnant or older than 45 years.
– Respondents are currently in the labour market or unemployed.
– Due to these restrictions the sample size decreased to 533 persons.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Measurements
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Intention having a child:
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Respondents were asked about their current intention to have a child. Possible
answering categories were „yes“ (1), „no“ (0), „do not know“ and „refused“.
„Refused“ (1%) and „do not know“ (7%) are considered to be missing values.
About 35% of all respondents (men: 30%; women 41%) intend to have a first child.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
10
Missing data
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Some variables suffer from missing data (e.g. partner’s employment
stats 14%, aggressive conflict behaviour 13%),
In our case the so-called multiple imputation (MI) approach to deal with
missing data problem is recommended
Path models are estimated with Mplus that uses the multiple imputation
method. However, in Mplus the full-information maximum likelihood
(FIML) is the default option.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
University of Cologne
11
Path model for intention to have a first child
(women, FIML)
Direct effect
Total indirect effect
***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Path model for intention to have a first child
(men, FIML)
Direct effect
Total indirect effect
***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Path model for intention to have a first child
(women, MI)
***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Path model for intention to have a first child
(men, MI)
***: p ≤ 0.01; **: p ≤ 0.05; *: p ≤ 0.10 (one-tailed)
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Results
1.
No support for the microeconomic theory: No direct
effect of being unemployed on the intention to have a
child.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner
Results
2.
Support for the microsociological approach
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At least for men there exists a significant negative indirect effect
Gender-specific associations between unemployment and
frequency of conflicts as well as aggressive behaviour
Male respondent’s aggressive conflict behaviour is determined by
their own unemployment.
Women’s perception of financial conflicts as well as their own
aggressive conflict behaviour is determined by their partner’s
unemployment.
Women’s unemployment does not have any consequences on
couple’s interactional behaviour, whereas men’s unemployment is
negatively related to their own as well as to their partner’s
behaviour.
The intention to have a first child is positively related to subjective
partnership stability.
Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
Research Institute for Sociology
Michael Wagner