Just Growth: Re g io n s a n d Cit ie s Inclusion and Prosperity in America’s Metropolitan Regions By Chris Benner, Associate Professor UC Davis July 26, 2012 Thanks to: Ford Foundation, Manuel Pastor and entire PERE/USC staff, Rosa Ramirez and Mateusz Filipski Outline Background: links between social equity and economic growth in regions Just Growth project: studying why and how equity is linked with growth at regional scale Conclusions: planning Implications for Equity and efficiency trade-offs? Conventional wisdom in economics Need for large-scale investment Shift from low to high productivity Incentives and motivation New equity and growth synergies? Keynesian economics Countries in the Global south Regions in the U.S. Equity Matters at Regional Scale City-Suburb income gaps associated with stagnation in regional income and jobs (Savitch et al. 1993) Per capita income growth faster where poverty gaps and segregation lower (Pastor et al. 2000) Racial inclusion and equality strongest predictor of four different measures of regional growth (Austrian et al. 2007) Relationship between equity and growth is stronger in ‘weak-market’ regions than fast growth regions (Pastor and Benner 2008) Income inequality associated with lower savings rates (linked with financial and social distress, including bankruptcies, high commute times, divorce) (Frank et al. 2010) Fund for our Economic Future 136 Metro areas, 4 growth measures, 9 broad indicators with 38 different variables Source: Fund for our Economic Future, North East Ohio http://www.futurefundneo.org/en/~/media/Files/Research/2007%20Dashboard%20of%20Economic%20Indicators.ashx Just Growth key questions Why is equity linked with growth? How are ‘just growth’ regions able to link growth with equity? Steps in the analysis Identify just growth regions Quantitative analysis of factors predicting just growth In-depth case studies Identifying just growth regions… Quadrant analysis: total of 72 national, and 72 in each of four census divisions, with little consistency Terciles of Growth index Index of growth and equity 1980-2000 total 64 64 64 192 best 13 18 33 64 middle 17 24 23 64 worst 34 22 8 64 worst middle best total Terciles of Equity index Index of growth and equity 1980-2000 Testing for characteristics associated with Just Growth Multiple variables: Employment/industrial composition (9) Geographic and distributional dimensions (8) Workforce demographics and housing (7) Interest in regional growth and/or justice (2) Multiple models Simple 26 32 23 9 Bottom Third Middle Third Top Third Justice Index ---> Non-Just Growth Growth Index ---> Just Growth Regions Top Third 22 29 16 19 29 Middle Third 16 19 Response Variable for the Just Growth Multinomial Logit 16 22 26 Bottom Third Top Third 16 Middle Third Response Variable for the Just Growth Logit Growth Index ---> correlations Multivariate regressions Logit models Bottom Third 32 23 9 Bottom Third Middle Third Top Third High Just Growth Regions Moderate Just Growth Regions Non-Just Growth Regions Justice Index ---> Just Growth Factors…1 Diversified economy State capital Nashville, Columbus, Denver, Sacramento Public sector employment Jacksonville, Sacramento Construction Denver—link with public investment Manufacturing negatively correlated Regional government/governance Jacksonville, Nashville City/County Mergers Kansas City MARC Ratio of Principal City Employment to Suburban Employment 1980, 1990, 2000 3.0 2.5 2.0 Cleveland 1.5 Top 192 Metro Average Nashville Jacksonville 1.0 0.5 0.0 1980 1990 2000 Just Growth Factors…2 Small portions of poorly educated population Better predictor of just growth than high portions of highly educated population Minority Middle Class Nashville Building diverse epistemic communities Like-minded networks of professionals whose authoritative claim to consensual knowledge provides them with unique source of power in decision-making processes. Processes of interaction (interpretation, knowledge generation, action) often institutionalized when there’s a need for repeated interactions over extended periods of time In short: What you know and who you know it with Exemplary diverse examples Jurisdictional ties Leadership Nashville Jacksonville Community Council Inc. Founded in 1976, mostly volunteer, 1 staff Annual cohort chosen from applicants and nominations to represent full diversity of the region Monthly day-long discussions focused on issues in Nashville $200 to participate, and scholarships available Government & Media Education Business & Labor Diversity Quality of Life Criminal Justice Arts & entertainment More than 200 alumni involved in hosting, planning, sponsoring, participating in events No positions! Safe, sustained, deliberative dialogue Founded in 1975 Multi-faceted community/participatory “thinktank” One of the earliest annual indicator projects Annual studies on particular topics Volunteer citizen task force, facilitated by staff Broad consultative process Consensus based recommendations for action Broadly shared priorities and sense of common destiny Conclusions Clear correlations between equity and growth within regions Steady, ‘unspectacular’, collaborative regions producing long-term success No silver bullet, but also diversity of opportunities—key is ties that help shape common destiny Thank you! ccbenner@ucdavis.edu http://Justgrowth.org