Just Growth:
Re g io n s a n d Cit ie s
Inclusion and Prosperity in
America’s Metropolitan Regions
By Chris Benner, Associate Professor
UC Davis
July 26, 2012
Thanks to: Ford Foundation, Manuel Pastor and entire PERE/USC staff, Rosa Ramirez and Mateusz Filipski
Outline
 Background:
links between social equity
and economic growth in regions

Just Growth project: studying why
and how equity is linked with
growth at regional scale
 Conclusions:
planning
Implications for
Equity and efficiency trade-offs?

Conventional wisdom in economics
 Need
for large-scale investment
 Shift from low to high productivity
 Incentives and motivation

New equity and growth synergies?
 Keynesian
economics
 Countries in the Global south
 Regions in the U.S.
Equity Matters at Regional Scale

City-Suburb income gaps associated with stagnation in regional
income and jobs (Savitch et al. 1993)

Per capita income growth faster where poverty gaps and
segregation lower (Pastor et al. 2000)

Racial inclusion and equality strongest predictor of
four different measures of regional growth (Austrian et
al. 2007)

Relationship between equity and growth is
stronger in ‘weak-market’ regions than fast growth
regions (Pastor and Benner 2008)
 Income inequality associated with lower
savings rates (linked with financial and social
distress, including bankruptcies, high
commute times, divorce) (Frank et al. 2010)
Fund for our Economic Future
136 Metro areas, 4 growth measures, 9 broad indicators with 38 different variables
Source: Fund for our Economic Future, North East Ohio
http://www.futurefundneo.org/en/~/media/Files/Research/2007%20Dashboard%20of%20Economic%20Indicators.ashx
Just Growth key questions
Why is equity linked with growth?
 How are ‘just growth’ regions able to link
growth with equity?
 Steps in the analysis

 Identify
just growth regions
 Quantitative analysis of factors predicting just
growth
 In-depth case studies
Identifying just growth regions…
Quadrant analysis: total of 72 national, and 72 in each
of four census divisions, with little consistency
Terciles of Growth index
Index of growth and equity 1980-2000
total
64
64
64
192
best
13
18
33
64
middle
17
24
23
64
worst
34
22
8
64
worst
middle
best
total
Terciles of Equity index
Index of growth and equity 1980-2000
Testing for characteristics
associated with Just Growth

Multiple variables:
 Employment/industrial
composition (9)
 Geographic and distributional dimensions (8)
 Workforce demographics and housing (7)
 Interest in regional growth and/or justice (2)
Multiple models
 Simple
26
32
23
9
Bottom
Third
Middle
Third
Top
Third
Justice Index
--->
Non-Just
Growth
Growth Index
--->
Just Growth
Regions
Top
Third
22
29
16
19
29
Middle
Third
16
19
Response Variable for the
Just Growth Multinomial Logit
16
22
26
Bottom
Third
Top
Third
16
Middle
Third
Response Variable for the
Just Growth Logit
Growth Index
--->
correlations
 Multivariate regressions
 Logit models
Bottom
Third

32
23
9
Bottom
Third
Middle
Third
Top
Third
High
Just Growth Regions
Moderate
Just Growth Regions
Non-Just Growth
Regions
Justice Index
--->
Just Growth Factors…1

Diversified economy
 State capital
 Nashville, Columbus, Denver, Sacramento
 Public sector employment
 Jacksonville, Sacramento
 Construction
 Denver—link with public investment
 Manufacturing

negatively correlated
Regional government/governance
 Jacksonville,
Nashville City/County Mergers
 Kansas City MARC
Ratio of Principal City Employment to Suburban Employment
1980, 1990, 2000
3.0
2.5
2.0
Cleveland
1.5
Top 192 Metro Average
Nashville
Jacksonville
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980
1990
2000
Just Growth Factors…2

Small portions of poorly educated population
 Better
predictor of just growth than high portions of
highly educated population

Minority Middle Class
 Nashville
Building diverse epistemic communities



Like-minded networks of professionals whose
authoritative claim to consensual knowledge provides
them with unique source of power in decision-making
processes. Processes of interaction (interpretation,
knowledge generation, action) often institutionalized
when there’s a need for repeated interactions over
extended periods of time
In short: What you know and who you know it with
Exemplary diverse examples



Jurisdictional ties
Leadership Nashville
Jacksonville Community Council Inc.


Founded in 1976, mostly volunteer, 1 staff
Annual cohort chosen from applicants and nominations to
represent full diversity of the region


Monthly day-long discussions focused on issues in Nashville






$200 to participate, and scholarships available
Government & Media
Education
Business & Labor
Diversity



Quality of Life
Criminal Justice
Arts & entertainment
More than 200 alumni involved in hosting, planning,
sponsoring, participating in events
No positions! Safe, sustained, deliberative dialogue


Founded in 1975
Multi-faceted community/participatory “thinktank”
 One

of the earliest annual indicator projects
Annual studies on particular topics
 Volunteer citizen task force, facilitated by staff
 Broad consultative process
 Consensus based recommendations for action

Broadly shared priorities and sense of common
destiny
Conclusions

Clear correlations between equity and
growth within regions

Steady, ‘unspectacular’, collaborative
regions producing long-term success

No silver bullet, but also diversity
of opportunities—key is ties that
help shape common destiny
Thank you!
ccbenner@ucdavis.edu
http://Justgrowth.org