Page 1 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Implementing Investment Decisions with Exchange Traded Products Netherlands CFA conference 21st November 2012 Table of Contents Introduction Why is exchange traded product implementation important? Main methods of implementation Case Studies Optimisation Techniques Page 3 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Introduction Introduction and overview Kris Walesby, Head of Capital Markets for ETF Securities □ Responsible for Sell-Side relationships Implementation, why it’s important and why it will grow in importance □ Why implementation is important □ Main methods for implementation □ Case Studies □ Optimisation Techniques □ Questions and Answers Page 5 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Why is ETP implementation so important? The Great African Migration Annual Event – Tanzania to Kenya 1,800 miles 1.5 m Wildebeest, 300k Zebra Grumeti river Not possible to avoid □ □ Page 7 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination To get to the fertile plains And to get back Investment Decision Lifecycle Asset allocation decision Product selection Implementation Initial Rebalance Total Cost Of Ownership Page 8 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Exit Don’t Just Look At The Headline Fee Investors naturally focus on headline fees - TERs However there are other considerations, including Rebalancing costs Swap fee Licensing fee Implementation costs Implementation costs are becoming increasingly recognised by European ETP investors as one of the most important aspects to focus on Page 9 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination The Importance of Time Horizons Implementation is always important However time horizons dictate the relative importance of implementation to the portfolio manager Time Horizon Strategy Relative importance of implementation Long Term Buy and Hold Low Medium Term Regular rebalancing Medium Short Term Tactical/Opportunistic High Page 10 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Example European ETPs – One Year Time Horizon Total Cost (Bid-Offer Spred + 1 Year Total Expense Ratio) 12 Provider 4 29 18 Provider 3 25 7 Provider 2 39 23 Provider 1 0 10 29 20 Bid-Offer Spread Page 11 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination 30 40 1 Yr TER 50 Example European ETPs – One Month Time Horizon Total Cost (Bid-Offer Spred + 1 Month Total Expense Ratio) 7 Provider 4 3 12 Provider 3 2 18 Provider 2 2 23 Provider 1 0 5 10 Bid-Offer Spread Page 12 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination 2 15 1mth TER 20 25 Main Implementation Methods Main Methods for Implementation On Exchange Risk Page 14 OTC Risk For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination @NAV ETPs are priced with reference to their underlying However there are other elements to consider too What does this mean in practice? Four main elements to an ETP price: Underlying spread Level of risk Creation/Redemption costs Existing Inventory – This acts as a price reducer Existing inventory Offer Price: - $25.50 Creation spread Risk spread Mid Price: - $25.00 Underlying spread Bid Price : - $24.50 Page 15 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Main Methods for Implementation: On Exchange On Exchange Risk OTC Risk Advantages Disadvantages Anonymous Orderbooks can be shallow Centrally cleared No direct recourse to market maker Usually cheap Usually multiple counterparties Page 16 @NAV For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Main Methods for Implementation: OTC @ Risk On Exchange Risk OTC Risk Advantages @NAV Disadvantages Large blocks at one price Counterparty risk Direct recourse to market maker Credit Lines need to be in place Not anonymous Page 17 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Main Methods for Implementation: OTC @ NAV On Exchange Risk OTC Risk Advantages No market risk Market Maker Client Page 18 @NAV Disadvantages No opportunity to price at risk Paid commissions for little work Achieve NAV Negative intraday price move Lower cost than a risk trade (usually) No possibility to “get inside spread of underlying” For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Optimising Portfolio Implemetation Suggestions for Optimising Portfolio Implementation Use limit orders where possible Don’t judge the potential liquidity by looking at historical volumes Check the trading times of the underlying Don’t compare closing price to NAV iNAVs are often useful but not always Capital Markets teams:- a critical aid to optimising implementation Page 20 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Case Studies: Trading On Exchange Trading ETPs on Exchange Example: State Street Euro Corporate Bond (SYBC GY Equity) Market makers compete with each other to provide the lowest price for an investor to buy at (Ask) and the highest price to sell at (Bid) Within these prices the market makers have already included: Page 22 The spread of the underlying Risk that they may be wrong Existing inventory Implied cost of creating and redeeming In this case the “top of the order book” is a spread of 15 basis points or 0.15% = (53.67 – 53.59)/53.59 * 10,000 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Case Studies: Trading @ NAV Client Disadvantages – Further explanation Negative intraday price move Page 24 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Page 25 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Appendix How does one assess the liquidity of an ETP? ETPs. They trade like stocks..... On exchange Europe:- approximately 7:50 am- 4:45 pm (UK Time:- includes auctions) Intraday pricing via bid and offer prices Order book size illustrates market makers buy/sell interest OTC Market Makers will offer two way prices Normally (but not necessarily) larger size order Normally (but not necessarily) higher commissions Page 28 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination ETF Securities Physical Gold (PHAU LN) and Barclays (BARC LN) have the same trading mechanics …but their liquidity has different drivers Traditional Securities Have a limited amount of free float shares available Liquidity is driven by demand/supply Historical volumes and trading patterns are used to predict future trading patterns Exchange Traded Products Price and liquidity are dictated by the underlying securities not the ETP Extremely limited “supply/demand” effect as the funds are open ended Historical volume is only useful to show popularity not tradability Techniques like VWAP are irrelevant Page 29 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Primary & Secondary Market - Interconnected 1 Investors trade via the exchanges (Secondary) or OTC directly with a market maker. 2 The market maker will execute the order using existing inventory, via the exchanges or by creating/ redeeming units on the primary market. 3 The decision on this will be based on the balance between what is cheapest and what bears least risk for the market maker. ETP Existing Inventory Primary Market Market Makers Secondary Market Investors Page 30 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Page 31 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Page 32 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Page 33 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Underlying Liquidity ETP Liquidity Look at the underlying ETFS Wheat Ticker:- WEAT LN Average Daily Volume:- $1.54m CBOT Future Ticker:- W A Comdty Average Daily Volume:- $1,126m ADV ($mn) Wheat Code W Exchange CBOT 1st Month Futures** Max DV Min DV Prev ADV Month Month Month 1,125.7 3,911.7 4.2 Explanation Page 35 ETFS Wheat trades $1.54m per day on average However, the relevant measure of how much trading can be done is the underlying contract This trades over $2b per day on average - Ratio:ETC/Future = 0.14% Many times over $1.7m ADV could be traded through the ETC with minimal impact Taking a conservative estimate of 10% of the average underlying trading, this means that $113m can be traded on the ETC without any significant price impact UBS and BAML have committed to $250m each of liquidity per day for the products they back For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination Arbitrageurs keep the price close to fair value Trader sees the ETP trading at $25.70 vs the underlying at $25.50. She: Buys underlying units at $25.50 Sells ETP units at $25.70 Creates ETP units in exchange for the underlyings i.e. at $25.50 Risk free profit $0.20 per unit Fund: ETF Securities Example ETP Underlying ETP Mid Price: $25.00 Page 36 Underlying Offer: $25.50 For Professional Investors Only, Not For Public Dissemination ETP Bid: $25.70 Important Information Important Information General This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the “qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. 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