Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Pacific Northwest Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier •JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group •Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Recession of the Muir Glacier Aug, 13, 1941 Aug, 31, 2004 Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html 3.00 Canada PNW USA Linear Trend (Deg. C per century) CA CRB 2.50 Tmax 2.00 GBAS PNW 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep CA GB CRB Linear Trend (Deg. C per century) 4.00 CA 3.50 CRB Tmin 3.00 GBAS PNW 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997 Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49 As the West warms, spring flows rise and summer flows drop Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, 2005: Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America, J. Climate, 18 (8): 1136-1155 Projections for the Future Using Global Climate Models Natural AND human influences explain the observations of global warming best. Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences Observed 20th century variability °C +3.2°C +1.7°C +0.7°C 0.9-2.4°C 0.4-1.0°C Pacific Northwest 1.2-5.5°C Observed 20th century variability % +6% +1% +2% -1 to +3%-1 to +9% Pacific Northwest -2 to +21% Hydroclimatology of the Pacific Northwest Annual PNW Precipitation (mm) Winter climate in the mountains is the key driver of streamflow. Snowpack functions as a natural reservoir. Elevation (m) Hydrologic Characteristics of PNW Rivers Normalized Streamflow 3.0 2.5 Snow Dominated 2.0 Transient Snow 1.5 Rain Dominated 1.0 0.5 0.0 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 Month 5 6 7 8 9 Effects of the PDO and ENSO on Columbia River Summer Streamflows PDO 450000 Cool Cool Warm Warm 350000 300000 250000 200000 high high low low 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 150000 1900 Apr-Sept Flow (cfs) 400000 Warming Affects Streamflow Timing 900000 Black: Obs Red: 2.3° C warming 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 Water Year 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 0 1973 •Streamflow timing is altered • Annual volume may be somewhat lower due to increased ET 800000 Flow (cfs) Temperature warms, precipitation unaltered: Precipitation Affects Streamflow Volume 900000 Black -- Obs Blue -- 9% increase in precip. 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 Water Year 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 0 1973 •Streamflow timing stays about the same •Annual volume is altered 800000 Flow (cfs) Precipitation increases, temperature unaltered: Hydrologic Impacts for the PNW Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and Energy Balance Snow Model 6 km 6 km 1/16th Deg. PNW Snow Model The warmest locations that accumulate snowpack are most sensitive to warming +2.3C, +6.8% winter precip Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming 120 Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 100 •Increased winter flow •Earlier and reduced peak flows •Reduced summer flow volume •Reduced late summer low flow 80 1950 60 plus2c 40 20 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Rain Dominant 250 Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) Chehalis River 200 150 1950 plus2c 100 50 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Warm Transient Snow 500 Hoh River Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 450 400 350 300 1950 250 plus2c 200 150 100 50 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Cooler Transient Snow 200 Nooksack River Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 180 160 140 120 1950 100 plus2c 80 60 40 20 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Snowmelt Dominant 450 Skagit River Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 400 350 300 250 1950 plus2c 200 150 100 50 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Changes in Simulated April 1 Snowpack for the Canadian and U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin (% change relative to current climate) 20th Century Climate “2040s” (+1.7 C) -3.6% -21.4% April 1 SWE (mm) “2060s” (+ 2.25 C) -11.5% -34.8% Effects of Basin Winter Temperatures 120000 100000 80000 Base 60000 comp 2040 40000 20000 aug jun apr feb dec 0 oct Northern Location (colder winter temperatures) Average Flow (cfs) CORRA LINN 140000 120000 100000 80000 Base 60000 comp 2040 40000 20000 aug jun apr feb dec 0 oct Southern Location (warmer winter temperatures) Average Flow (cfs) ICE HARBOR Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change Will Global Warming be “Warm and Wet” or “Warm and Dry”? Answer: Probably BOTH! 450000 350000 300000 250000 200000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 150000 1900 Apr-Sept Flow (cfs) 400000 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 1944 1940 CRB 1936 CA 1932 1928 3 1924 1920 1916 Std Anomalies Relative to 1961-1990 Regionally Averaged Cool Season Precipitation Anomalies 4 PNW PRECIP GB 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Impacts to the Columbia River Hydro System Impacts on Columbia Basin hydropower supplies • Winter and Spring: increased generation • Summer: decreased generation • Annual: total production will depend primarily on annual precipitation (+2C, +6%) (+2.3C, +5%) (+2.9C, -4%) NWPCC (2005) Warming climate impacts on electricity demand • Reductions in winter heating demand • Small increases in summer air conditioning demand in the warmest parts of the region NWPCC 2005 Climate change adaptation may involve complex tradeoffs between competing system objectives Percent of Control Run Climate 2070-2098 140 PCM Control Climate and Current Operations 120 PCM Projected Climate and Current Operations 100 PCM Projected Climate with Adaptive Management 80 60 Firm Hydropower Annual Flow Deficit at McNary Source: Payne, J.T., A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004, Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climatic Change Vol. 62, Issue 1-3, 233-256 Instream Flow Augmentation and Water Quality Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming 120 Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm) 100 •Increased winter flow •Earlier and reduced peak flows •Reduced summer flow volume •Reduced late summer low flow 80 1950 60 plus2c 40 20 0 oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Temperature thresholds for coldwater fish in freshwater • Warming temperatures will increasingly stress coldwater fish in the warmest parts of our region – A monthly average air temperature of 68ºF (20ºC) has been used as an upper limit for resident cold water fish habitat, and is known to stress Pacific salmon during periods of freshwater migration, spawning, and rearing +1.7 °C +2.3 °C Overview of Some Water Resources Impact Pathways Water Supply and Demand •Changes in the seasonality water supply (e.g. reductions in summer) •Changes in water demand (e.g. increasing evaporation) •Changes in drought stress •Increasing conflicts between water supply and other uses and users of water Energy Supply and Demand •Changes in the seasonality and quantity of hydropower resources •Changes in energy demand •Increasing conflicts between hydro and other uses and users of water Instream Flow Augmentation •Changes in low flow risks •Changes in the need for releases from storage to reproduce existing streamflow regime. •Changes in water resources management related to water quality (e.g. to provide dilution flow or to control temperature) Flood Control and Land Use Planning •Changes in flood risks •Changes in flood control evacuation and timing •Dam safety Impacts in Estuaries •Impacts of sea level rise and changing flood risk on low lying areas (dikes and levies) •Impacts to ecosystem function •Changes in land use policy (coastal armoring, land ownership, FEMA maps) Long-Term Planning, Water Resources Agreements, Water Law and Policy •Water allocation agreements in a non-stationary climate (e.g. water permitting) •Appropriateness of the historic streamflow record as a legal definition of climate variability •Need for new planning frameworks in a non-stationary climate •Transboundary implications for the Columbia Basin Approaches to Adaptation and Planning •Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past. •Use scenario based planning to evaluate options rather than the historic record. •Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach. •Plan for the long haul. Where possible, make adaptive responses and agreements “self tending” to avoid repetitive costs of intervention as impacts increase over time. Overview of Some Existing Climate Change Water Planning Studies •Seattle Water Supply (Wiley 2004) •White River Basin (Ball 2004) •Snohomish Basin (Battin et al. 2007) •Columbia Hydro System (Hamlet et al. 1999; Payne et al. 2004, NWPCC 2005) Ball, J. A. 2004. Impacts of climate change on the proposed Lake Tapps-White River water supply, M.S.C.E. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle. Battin J., Wiley, M.W., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Palmer, R.N., Korb, E., Bartz, K.K., Imaki, H., 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104 (16): 6720-6725 Hamlet, A. F. and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999b. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(6):1597-1623. Payne, J. T., A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, R. N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change 62:233-256. NW Power and Conservation Council, 2007, Effects of Climate Change on the Hydroelectric System, Appendix N to the NWPCC Fifth Power Plan, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/plan/Default.htm Wiley, M. W. 2004. Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle's long range water supply planning. M.S.C.E. thesis, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.