Chapter 18

• “Population density” is a measure of how compact or concentrated a population is.
• It includes land AND population
• For example: Canada as a whole has a much larger population than St. John‘s. However
Canada is spread out over a much larger area than is St. John's. Therefore, St. John's would have a higher population density than
Canada).

• “Population Density:” population per unit area
• The unit area is usually measured in Km 2 or miles 2

• “Sparsely populated” means there is a few or small number of people per unit area
• ( less than 100 people / Km 2 )

• “Densely populated” means there is a large or high number of people per unit area
• (higher than 100 people / Km 2 )

• It is important to note that these two classifications and the numeric cut off of 100 people / Km 2 are somewhat arbitrary.
• Some books use a middle category moderately populated @ 10-100 people / Km 2

• What is the disadvantage of population density?
1.It does not tell us how a population is distributed
2. Population density assumes the same distribution. It is an indication of the average.
3. We know populations of people are both concentrated and dispersed. Population density does not reflect this
• For example:
Canada’s population is concentrated on the border with the
USA, while the north is sparsely populated. See the map…

• North America:
– Sparsely populated in north,
– Densely populated along North eastern U.S. and south western U.S.
• South America:
– Sparsely populated in center,
– Densely populated along Western Coast But most dense south Eastern Brazil
• Europe:
– Sparsely populated in extreme north,
– Densely populated throughout remainder

• Asia:
– Sparsely populated in North & center,
– Densely populated in South East
• Africa:
– Sparsely populated in Sahara,
– Densely in North & Sub Sahara

• Climate:
– Warmer comfortable climates attract people.
Notice that most people live in a moderate climate region.

• Economics:
– Population distribution has changed over time. No longer are dense populations around primary resources. Urbanization and the move to the industrial and now the information ages have changed population distribution.

• Transportation:
– Coastal regions attracted business and people because of ocean transportation. It was true for initial settlement and is still true today.
– Most major cities are located on the coast.

Population Growth Rate
• There are two ways to measure population growth:
– 1. “Absolute Population Growth” refers the total amount of increase
(or decrease) regardless of time.
– i.e. Germany saw an increase of 1,000,000 people
– 2. “Annual Growth Rate” (AGR): The calculation used to provide a measure of population growth over one year.
– Expressed as a percent over one year
– i.e. There was an increase in Canada’s population in 2012 of 3%
– The formula is: 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒
𝐴𝐺𝑅 = 𝑥 100% ÷ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙

Sample calculation of AGR
1. Mexico
– Mexico’s population changed from 49 million to
72 million between the years 1971 & 1981
– 𝐴𝐺𝑅 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑥 100% ÷ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒
– 𝐴𝐺𝑅 =
72−49 𝑥 100% ÷ 10 (very high)
49

2. Sweden
– Sweden's population changed from 7.9 million to
8.3 million between the years 1971 & 1981
– 𝐴𝐺𝑅 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑝.𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑥 100% ÷ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒
– 𝐴𝐺𝑅 =
8.3−7.9
𝑥 100% ÷ 10 (very low)
7.9

• Most population statisticians recognize three categories of growth rates.
• They are:
– 1. Slow
– 2. Fast
– 3. Moderate
• Fast growing: AGR > 2%
– For example Mexico, between 1971 & 1981, had a fast growing population with an AGR of 4.7%
• Moderately growing: AGR approximately = 2%
• Slow growing: AGR < 2%
– For example Sweden, between 1971 & 1981, had a slow growing population with an AGR of 0.5%

• What is the Annual Growth Rate: Remember that:
– Fast: is greater than 2% per year
– Moderate: at 2% per year
– Slow: less than 2%
• 5%?
• Fast
• 4%
• Fast
• 2%
• Moderate
• 1%
• Slow

• Most countries population growth rates are declining. Especially developed nations.
• Generally speaking the more developed the nation the more stable the population.
• This trend towards lower growth rates should not be confused with decreasing populations.
• Remember: The worlds population is still growing at a phenomenal rate!!
• Look at figure 18.6 and you can see that we still increasing the world's population very fast.

Demographic Transitions Model
• A model that describes population change over time.
• The observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.
• It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren
Thompson

• STAGE ONE
– associated with pre Modern times
– characterized by a balance between birth rates and death rates
– situation was true of all human populations up until the late 18th century when the balance was broken in western
Europe
– we would expect that native/tribal populations that exist in isolated parts of the world might still exist in the stage where birth rates are high and death rates are high.

• STAGE TWO
– a rise in population
– caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly.
– lesser developed and developing nations where there is enough health care and nutrition to decrease death rates, but birth rates are still high.

• STAGE THREE
– moves the population towards stability
– through a decline in the birth rate
– this would be the case in developing countries and those that have recently become developed nations.

• STAGE FOUR
– is characterized by stability
– in this stage the population age structure has become older.
– for example Canada, Sweden and other developed nations would be in this stage of the model.

• Are you able to identify countries that are:
– 1. Stage 1:
– 2. Stage 2
– 3. Stage 3
– 4. Stage 4

• What Stage?
– Example 1:
• High birth rate
• High death rate
• Offset or balance each other
• Pre-modern societies (before 1800’s)
• Stable population growth
• Stage 1

• What Stage?
– Example 2
• Population stability
• Birth rates and growth rates are close together
• Characteristic of well developed countries
• Stage 4

• What Stage?
– Example 3
– High birth rate
• Declining death rate
• Increasing population
• Lesser developed and developing nations
• Some improvements in health care
• Stage 2

• What Stage?
– Example 4
• Moving toward stability
• Decreasing birth rate
• Characteristic of developed countries that used to be developing
• Stage 3

Population Growth and Socio-Economic Conditions:
• We know that improved socio-economic indicators (lower
IMR, increased life expectancy, higher GNP per capita) mean that a country is more developed
• We also know that improved socio-economics indicators allow developed nations to stabilize their populations!
• Let’s look at socio-economic indicators and their connection (or relationship) to population growth. Here are a number of indicators to consider:
1. Education rates:
– educated people are more aware of birth control.
Statistics show that increased education is correlated with decreased number of children.

2. Education of females:
– Statistics show that more educated women tend to have fewer children.
– education of women has resulted in them taking on a greater variety of societal roles in developed nations.

3. Ability to access birth control:
– in lesser developed nations the cost is prohibitive.
– in some developing countries there is no access.
– feeding the family takes precedent over birth control.
4. Service sector jobs. The move from agriculture to urbanization:
– people do not need large families to help on the farm if they work in the city where the jobs are predominantly in manufacturing and in the service sector.

5. Health care:
– prenatal and family planning services are expensive.
They are predominantly found in more developed nations
– we may not recognize the services we have available in developed nations because we are so accustomed to them.
– governments in developed nations collect millions of dollars in taxes that contribute to public health nurses, hospitals, family planning clinics, and family living courses in grade school.

• “Overpopulation” is when human population is greater than the earth’s carrying capacity
• Caused by:
– Lower mortality (death) rates worldwide
– Immigration to developed countries
– Higher survival rates (famine, drought) in developing countries
– Lack of family planning in developing counties
– Better health care
• Technology, medicines, research

– 1. Depletion of natural resources:
• Forests are being cleared
• Earth can produce only so much water and food
– 2. Degradation of the environment
• Overuse of fossil fuels have produced serious effects
• Global warming, rising sea levels
– 3. Conflicts and Wars
• More people means more demands on resources
• Impact: tensions between countries
– 4. Unemployment
• When countries are overpopulated, fewer jobs are available to support people
– 5. Higher Costs of Living
• As demand increases for commodities, food, shelter and healthcare, people have to pay more to feed their families

• “Population control” is the practice of altering the rate of growth of a human population
• In developed nations family planning, pension plans, easy access to birth control, education and a changing standard of living have all led to a controlled, stable population.
• In lesser developed nations, these services are all very difficult to obtain.

• What plan would you support to help developing nations control their population?
– 1. Legislation?
• Should government make it illegal to have more than a certain number of babies.
• Is that humane?
• What is done with children over the limit?

– 2. Natural means?
• Some people have proposed that war and famine be used natural means of birth control.
• If developed nations want to take the moral high ground, they cannot stand aside and let people in famine go unaided or reduce peacekeeping missions. Is this an option?
– 3. Education?
• Increasing education of the masses, especially females, is correlated with decreased births.
Could we help to provide education in developing nations?
– 4. Pension plans & RRSP's?
• Allow people to be secure into their old age. Seniors do not have to worry about having children to take care of them. Is this something we could promote in under-developed nations? How?

– 5. Birth Control?
• Birth control is the biggest factor limiting populations in developed nations. Could we provide less expensive birth control for developing nations?
– 6. Economic Development?
• Highly developed economies are associated with decreased birth rates. Should we support economic improvements as the ultimate route to controlling birth rates?

• “Natural change” in a population is defined as the difference in births and deaths.
• Natural change does not consider immigration and emigration.
– Natural Change = difference in births - deaths
• “Natural Increase” occurs when there are more births than deaths
• “Natural Decrease” occurs when there are more deaths than births

• Keep in mind, there are only two factors that can increase a population; births and immigration.
• There are only two factors that can decrease a population; deaths and emigration.
• Key Idea! Natural change in a population considers only the births and deaths as a means of decreasing the population.

Rate of Natural Change
• The Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) takes into account only birth rate and death rate.
• Birth Rate (BR) is measured as the number of births (in one year) per 1000 people.
– The Formula is; 𝑩𝑹 = 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎

• Death Rate (DR) is measured as the number of deaths (in one year) per 1000 people.
– The Formula is; 𝑫𝑹 = 𝒅𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒔
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
• Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is a measure of how fast the population is increasing due only to the births and deaths.
– The formula is: 𝑹𝑵𝑰 = 𝑩𝑹 − 𝑫𝑹 ÷ 10
• RNI of Algeria (1997) = BR (31) – DR (7) ÷ 10
• RNI Algeria = 24 ÷ 10
• RNI Algeria = 2.4

• Birth Rate Algeria (1997) p. 311
– Population: 29,800,00
– Number of Births: 923,800
– Number of Deaths: 208,600
• Remember: 𝑩𝑹 = 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
• BR = 923,800/29,800,000 X 1,000
• BR = 0.031 X 1,000
• BR Algeria = 31

• Death Rate Algeria (1997) p. 311
– Population: 29,800,00
– Number of Births: 923,800
– Number of Deaths: 208,600
• Remember: 𝑫𝑹 = 𝒅𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒑𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎
• DR = 208,600/29,800,000 X 1,000
• DR = 0.007 X 1,000
• DR Algeria (1997) = 7

Population Growth Rate & Standard of Living
• Stable populations are characteristic of a high standard of living! This is due to:
– low birth rate caused by good family planning, access to birth control, financial planning, education, etc.
– Low death rate caused by good medical care, nutrition, education
• An expanding population is characteristic of a lower standard of living! This is due to:
– high birth rate due to poor access to birth control, lack of education etc.;
– high death rate due to poor medical care & nutrition

• 1.Education and employment opportunities for women
• 2. Cost of raising and educating children
• 3. Infant Mortality Rate
• 4. Availability of pension systems
• 5. Availability and access to birth control

• 1. Increased food supplies
• 2. Better nutrition
• 3. Improvements in health technology
• 4. Safer water supplies
• 5. Improved sanitization systems

Chapter 19

• “Population pyramids” are graphs that show the age structure of a population by age & gender
– normally males are on the left and females are on the right
– age categories are in 5 year increasing intervals labelled up the center axis
– the horizontal axis is measured in millions

Classifying Population Pyramids
1. Expanding populations:
– Classic triangular/pyramid shape.
– The wide base indicates a high birth rate & the narrow top indicates a high death rate.
– An expanding population is characteristic of a lower standard of living!
• high birth rate due to poor access to birth control, lack of education etc.;
• high death rate due to poor medical care & nutrition.

2. Stationary or Stable:
• Population pyramids have a 1/2 ellipse (circle) shape.
• The base of this population pyramid is similar in width to the population of the reproductive ages.
Indicates a stable population.
• More people at older ages. People living longer.
• Stable populations are characteristic of a high standard of living due to:
• low birth rate due to good family planning, access to birth control, financial planning, education, etc.;
• low death rate due to good medical care, nutrition, education etc.

3. Contractive or Contracting:
– Narrower base than the reproductive age population.
– This indicates a decreasing population trend. The low birth rate is indicative of a well developed country.

1. Width of the base:
– birth rate determines the width of the base.
– a wide base indicates a high birth rate and a narrow base indicates a low birth rate.
2. Symmetry:
– pyramids should be relatively symmetrical. Right side
(female) should be similar in shape to the left (male)
– any asymmetry indicates a difference in the male and female population.
– this pyramid shows more females at the 85+ age. This indicates that more women are living to older ages than males.

3. Shape of sides:
– Concave sides indicate a high death rate -people are dying. Convex sides indicate a low death rate -people are living
4. Bumps in the sides:
– Irregularities in the sides indicate a demographic anomaly.
5. Classification:
– Population pyramids indicate a standard of living!
They tell us about social and economic factors

• “Dependency Ratio” is an age population ratio of a country.
• It shows the ratio of:
– Those typically not in the work force (dependent) and those in the work force (productive).
• Keep in mind the working age of people varies.
• Traditionally people worked until they were 65 years old. The common trend now is for people to retire closer to 55 years of age.

• For statistic purposes, we recognize people between 15 and 65 as the workers of a society.
• People under 15 and over 65 are considered dependent upon the working population.
• The dependency ratio (DR) of a population indicates how many people are dependent upon every 100 workers.
– The formula is; 𝒑𝒐𝒑. 𝟎 − 𝟏𝟒 + (𝒑𝒐𝒑. 𝟔𝟓+)
𝑫𝑹 =
(𝒑𝒐𝒑. 𝟏𝟓 − 𝟔𝟒)
× 𝟏𝟎𝟎

• 1. Improved health care
• Improved medicines, technology, research, nutrition
• 2. Increased focus on career and education
• Impact: they are having fewer children
• 3. Not marrying as young as they used to
• Fewer children

• 1. Strain on government funds. Increased demand on health system
• 2. Demand on pension plans
• 3. Increased demand for elderly care
• Upon families and government
• 4. More demands on a smaller working population to pay for services
• 5. Difficulty finding employees

Migration Terminology
1. Migration
– Refers to the movement of people from one region to another.
2. Immigration
– Refers to the migration of people into the country, province or region.
3. Emigration
– Refers to the migration of people out of the country, province or region.

4. Net Migration
– Refers to the difference between immigration and emigration.
5. Internal Migration
– Refers to the migration of people within a country province or region.

Actual Change
• “Actual change” recognizes ALL the factors that can change a population.
• Actual change deals with births, deaths, immigration and emigration.
• Natural change ONLY deals with births and deaths
• The formula for Actual Change is:
𝑨𝑪 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆
𝑬 𝒆𝒎𝒊𝒈𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
)
= 𝑩 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
+ 𝑰 𝒊𝒎𝒎𝒊𝒈𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
− (𝑫 𝒅𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒔
+
• Another way! 𝐴𝐶 = 𝐵 + 𝐼 − (𝐷 + 𝐸)

• A population can have a natural increase but an actual decrease!
• How?
– If the net migration is negative and greater than the natural increase (births) there will be an actual decrease in the population.
– In other words…net migration (people coming and going) is more than the number of babies being born and people dying
– If the relative size of the symbols in the formula can represent the concept:
– 𝐴𝐶 = 𝐵 + 𝐼 − (𝐷 + 𝐸 )

• A population can have a natural decrease but an actual increase! How?
– If the net migration is positive and larger than the natural decrease there will be an actual increase in the population.
– If the relative size of the symbols in the formula can represent the concept:
𝐴𝐶 = 𝐵 + 𝑰 − ( 𝑫 + 𝐸)

Why do People Migrate?
• We can classify all reasons for moving into one of two categories.
• People either want to get away from their place of origin or they want to go to a particular place.
• We use the terms "push factors" and "pull factors".

• “Push factors” are factors in the home country that make people want to leave. For example, civil war, unemployment, poverty, natural disasters
• “Pull factors” are factors in the drawing country that attract people. For example, safety, family unification, jobs, freedom

• There are forces that keep people in their home country.
• These factors are referred to as “Intervening
obstacles” because they are obstacles to migration.
They prevent or inhibit people from moving
• These factors include:
– culture
– lack of money
– emigration/immigration laws
– family connections
– the feeling of home

• “Repel factors” are negative things in a foreign country that stop people from moving there. For example, crime rates, civil war, high taxes, climate

The decision to move from one country to another is never an easy one. People must take many factors into consideration
Push Factors
• Lack of jobs
• Lack of services
• War
Pull Factors
• More jobs
• More services
• Peaceful country
Repel Factors
• Crime rate
• High cost of living
• War
• Climate
Intervening Obstacles
• Lack of money
• Immigration laws
• Don’t want to leave family
• Distance

• Which country should allow migrants into the country?
• Country 3!
• Why?

• Why should we allow more immigrants into
Canada? (Stable population)
– shortage of skilled workers
– increase working population
– more taxes for government
– they start businesses and provide employment
– decrease dependency load
– help others improve their lives

• Impacts of Immigration
• Disadvantages:
– 1. takes work from Canadians
– 2. adds to the poor population
• Advantages:
– 1. Boosts the economy. Immigrants are creative, skilled and hardworking
– 2. Newcomers promote growth and prosperity
– 3. Create demand for goods and services; they also create labor and businesses
– 3. Many immigrants arrive in the prime of their work lives
– 4. They pay taxes which support social programs for all Canadians

• Impacts of Emigration
• Disadvantages:
– 1. impact on the family due to separation
– 2. loss of human capital (loss of skills, expertise, the “brain drain”)
• Advantages:
– 1. reduces unemployment
– 2. increase incomes of people
– 3. money sent home

Assigned Readings
• "Immigration Policy in Canada" on pages 327-
330 of your text book.

• A “census” is an enumeration (counting) of all the people of a nation or a region.
• It is a systematic and complete count of all who are living in specified places, usually on a specific date.
• Usually gathered every 5 or 10 years
• Provides a statistical portrait of a country and its people.

• Aging (graying) population will mean:
1.More hospitals
2.More retirement homes
3.Smaller workforce
4.Different consumers
5.Higher dependency ratio (fewer taxpayers)
6.More pensioners

• A more younger population will probably mean:
1.More schools
2.More teachers
3.More daycares
4.Higher dependency ratio
5.Different consumers

Assigned Readings
• "Population Studies" on Page 336 of your text book.