ANC 2018
Evidence Base – Progress
Report
Independent Evaluators
• Winning bid from consortium:
– John Grieve
– Andrew Moxey
– Peter Cook
– Bill Slee
• Evidence papers and background data at
parish level are being prepared for
contractors who will synthesise and draw
conclusions
Projects - Overview
Project 1 – Land Abandonment
Information for Contractors:
• Summary Report on Land Abandonment
• JHI remote sensing report (investigates
changes in vegetation density index using
satellite data from 1975, 1980, 1992,
2000, 2005 and 2015)
• Parish level data on livestock, agricultural
labour and LFASS area claims
Key points from paper 010
• Working definition: actual abandonment is
farmland no longer used at all and semi/hidden
abandonment is land with minimal maintenance
• significant destocking across Scotland: more
prominent in LFA and most prominent on land
with a low LFASS payments
• Employment: large shift away from regular staff
to casual staff
• Since 2007 there has been a 20.5% reduction in
LFASS Grazing category A land claimed
Project 2 – LFASS Distribution
Information for Contractors:
• LFASS scheme data summarised by
parish.
• Summary paper including sectoral and
regional breakdowns and distribution and
change maps
Key points from paper 008
Analysis compares 2007 and 2013
• Funding increased by £6m (~10%)
• Claimed area fell by around 460k ha
• Upland areas have lowest per hectare
funding rates and saw bigger percentage
increases in funding between ‘07 and ‘13
• The regions which receive the most per
hectare are Orkney, Fife, Dumfries &
Galloway and NE Scotland.
Project 3 – Pillar 1 Payments
Information for contractors:
• Pillar 1 payments summarised by parish
• Pillar 1 summary paper including sectoral
and regional breakdowns and distribution
and change maps
• Combined P1 & LFASS subsidy analysis
using farm accounts survey
Project 4 – Sustainable Farming
Systems
Information for contractors:
• Summary paper
• Updated viability analysis commissioned
from SRUC
• Evidence highlighted by Env LINK on
environmental sustainability and on
management of common grazings
Key points from paper 009 (1)
Economic Sustainability:
• Big increase in net wealth across all farm types
• Income and wealth much lower for LFA farm
types, specialist sheep in particular.
• LFA farm types are almost exclusively
dependent on subsidy for income (those with
higher subsidies have higher incomes)
• Non-viability is driven by lower size, the farm
being a tenancy (rather than owned), upland
based operations, and having high nature value
farming status
Key points from paper 009 (2)
• Social Sustainability: LFASS was found to
safeguard jobs where it encouraged active land
management
• Environmental Sustainability:
• Evaluations of LFASS have identified both positive
and negative environmental impacts
• SNH report found the numbers and distribution of wild
deer influence the extent to which livestock changes
impact natural heritage. Anecdotal evidence and case
studies suggest declines in livestock negatively
impacted natural heritage.
Project 5 – Income Forgone and
Additional Costs
• Number of sources of data on margins
(e.g. FMH, QMS, FAS) but based on
averages or enterprise types. Link to land
quality/ constraint needs to be based on
assumption.
• Commissioned JHI and SRUC to link Farm
Accounts data to biophysical data in order
to undertake analysis to try and isolate the
effect of the constraint on cost and
income.
Additional Project & Next Steps
• Commissioned SAC consultants to gather
evidence on the costs of remoteness
• Requested business level data on options
for ANC zones so we can analyse
payment rates, degressivity and budget
distribution for stakeholder event next
year.