Crime
Prevention and
Soft
Technology
Various forms of soft, informationbased technology have been
applied to the prevention of a
diverse number of crimes,
including terrorism, school
violence, workplace violence
and sex crimes.
Preventing Terrorism
Using Soft Technology
 Identifying
Risky People: identifying
potential Terrorists using information
technology
 interrogating / foreigners, apprehending
illegal aliens, wiretaps, monitoring phone
conversations, monitoring financial
transactions, tracking hate-related groups
 Identifying Risky Places: Airports, Public
Transportation, Nuclear Plants, Federal
Office Buildings
The Exceptional Case Study
Project
 In
the mid-1990s, the United States
Secret Service commissioned a study
of 83 individuals known to have
attacked or approached with the
intent of attacking, a prominent public
official or public figure.
 . Researchers concluded that
attempts to develop a useful profile
of potential assassins were essentially
futile. Nonetheless, they identified a
key characteristic shared by all of its
subjects, namely, patterns of behaviors
in the period leading up to the
assassination or assassination attempt
Core Principles of Threat
Assessment
 First,
, the study found that any attempts
to develop a profile of targeted-violence
perpetrators would be neither specific
enough to have any real discriminatory
value nor sensitive enough to effectively
identify potential attackers who might fall
outside of the “typical profile”
Core Principle 2
 Second,
threat assessment draws a
critical distinction between making a
threat and posing a threat. The working
premise is that the majority of individuals
who make specific threats of violence
never carry them out, and that many
cases of specific violence involve no
explicit threats before any action is taken.
 Although 77% of the ECSP sample had
communicated their threat to someone
before the incident, threat assessment
views articulated threats as neither
necessary nor sufficient for the presence
of an actual threat.
Core Principle 3
 Third,
acts of targeted violence are not
spontaneous events but are planned
activities that typically permeate the
thoughts of potential perpetrators in
the period leading up to the violence.
 Threat assessment views virtually all
acts of targeted violence as preceded
by a chain of behaviors, and,
 There are a series of behavioral
warning signs that are amenable to
identification and interdiction.
Core Principle 4
 Fourth,
threat assessment takes a
dynamic view of the etiology of targeted
violence, holding that the trajectory from
idea to execution is highly influenced by
interactions between would-be attackers,
their views of and perceived relations with
the target, and a range of situational
variables.
 Effective prevention and interdiction
involves evaluating interactions among
potential perpetrators, situational and
opportunistic contexts, and potential
targets.
Can We Accurately Profile
Likely Terrorists?
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Borum (2004) refutes the notion that there is a
“terrorist personality” or any valid
psychological, demographic, or behavioral
profile of a terrorist (see also Horgan, 2003).
The problem with this approach is its lack of
both specificity (the ability to exclude “false
positives”) and sensitivity (the ability to avoid
“false negatives”).
The identification and assessment of terrorism
risk becomes far more dependent on
sophisticated systems of intelligence than
assessment of most other forms of targeted
violence.
Threat Assessment Process
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QUESTIONS TO ASK IN A THREAT ASSESSMENT
(Adapted from Borum et al., 1999)
What motivated the subject to make the statement or take the action that caused him or
her to come to attention?
What has the subject communicated to someone else (target, law enforcement, family,
friends, colleagues, associates) or written concerning his or her intentions?
Has the subject shown an interest in assassination, weapons, militant of radical ideas/groups,
murderers and/or mass murderers, and workplace violence and stalking incidents?
Is there evidence that the subject has engaged in menacing, harassing, and/or stalkingtype behaviors? Has the subject engaged in attack-related behaviors such as:
Developing an attack idea or plan.
Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target.
Approaching, visiting, and/or following the target with a weapon.
Attempting to circumvent security.
Assaulting or attempting to assault a target.
Does the subject have a history of mental illness involving command hallucinations,
delusional ideas, feelings of persecution, etc., with indications that the subject has acted on
those beliefs?
How organized is the subject? Does the subject have the ability to plan and execute a
violent action against a target?
Is there evidence that the subject is experiencing desperation and/or despair? Has the
subject experienced a recent personal loss and/or loss of status? Is the subject now, or has
the subject ever been, suicidal?
Is the subject's "story" consistent with his or her actions?
Are those who know the subject concerned that he or she might take action based on
inappropriate ideas?
What factors in the subject's life and/or environment might increase or decrease the
likelihood that the subject will attempt to attack a target (or targets)?
Threat Assessment Instruments
 Design
Issues: We are in the very early
stages of development
 Linking Assessment to Crime Prevention:
the use of alert codes, resource allocation
 Role of the Private Sector
Preventing Homicide
 Do
we need a Department of Pre
Crime, as depicted in Minority Report?
 Can potential Homicide Offenders
and Victims be identified?
 In London, the police have created a
list of 100 likely homicide offenders,
based on extensive research on
offender characteristics
 In Philadelphia, U-Penn researchers
found that 70% of all homicide
offenders AND victims were on
probation or parole at the time of the
homicide
Can School Violence be
Prevented?
 Bullying
identification protocol
 The use of mental health data by school
officials; and linking mental health,
criminal record, and gun purchase data
bases; lessons learned from Virginia Tech
tragedy
 The application of other forms of soft
technology to crime prevention (e.g.
information sharing, improved nationwide
data collection protocol for criminal
histories, etc.)
Myths and Facts about Sex
Offenders
 Myth:
"Most sexual assaults are committed
by strangers."
 Fact: Most sexual assaults are committed
by someone known to the victim or the
victim's family, regardless of whether the
victim is a child or an adult.
Myth 2
 Myth:
"The majority of sexual offenders are
caught, convicted, and in prison."
 Fact: only a fraction of those who commit
sexual assault are apprehended and
convicted for their crimes. Most
 convicted sex offenders eventually are
released to the community under
probation or parole supervision.
Myth 3
 Myth
: "Most sex offenders re-offend. "
 Fact: Reconviction data suggest that this
is not the case. Further. Re-offense rates
vary among different types of sex
offenders and are related to specific
characteristics of the offender and the
offense.
Myth 4
 Myth:
"Sexual offense rates are higher
than ever and continue to climb."
 Fact: Despite the increase in publicity
about sexual crimes, the actual rate of
reported sexual assault has decreased in
recent years, following the significant
downward trend in all forms of violence
over the past twenty years
Myth 5
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Myth: "Children who are sexually assaulted will
sexually assault others when they grow up.“
Fact: Most sex offenders were not sexually assaulted as
children and most children who are sexually
assaulted do not sexually assault others
 Among adult sex offenders, approximately 30% have
been sexually abused.
 Some types of offenders, such as those who sexually
offend against young boys, have still higher rates of
child sexual abuse in their histories.
 While past sexual victimization can increase the
likelihood of sexually aggressive behavior, most
children who were sexually victimized never
perpetrate against others
Other Myths About Sex
Offenders
 Myth:
 Myth:
"All sex offenders are male.“
"Sex offenders commit sexual
crimes because they are under the
influence of alcohol.“
 Myth: "Youths do not commit sex
offenses.“
 Myth: "Juvenile sex offenders typically
are victims of child sexual abuse and
grow up to be adult sex offenders.“
 Myth: "Treatment for sex offenders is
ineffective."
Can Sexual Assault be
Prevented using Soft
Technology? Examples
 Sex
offender registration of all known
sex offenders
 Sex Offender registration does not
prevent recidivism( re-offense rates are
very low( 5% for new sex crimes)
 but it does make it more difficult for
offenders to hide from authorities
 Estimates of the number of sex
offenders who fail to register vary from
25,000 to 50,000
 Identity Theft and Identity
Manipulation by Sex Offenders who fail
to register or abscond
Soft Technology Applications
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Lifetime monitoring of known sex offenders is
now allowed by statute in over 30 states.
Electronic monitoring can be used to locate
and track sex offenders.
Sex Offenders can be restricted from certain
locations ( living, working, visiting) using new
GPS-based location/mapping systems
Private Sector operation of electronic
monitoring raises cost and privatization
concerns
Soft Technology Applications
 Community
Notification of High Risk
Offenders
 Issue: How do we define different levels of
sex offender risk?
 In Massachusetts, this decision is made by
the Sex Offender Registry Board
 Level 1, 2 , and 3 Sex offenders are
identified by the board
Soft Technology Applications
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Early identification of Adult Sex Offenders( as
Juveniles) using various assessment tools
Approximately 40% of all known sex offenders are
juveniles
Currently, it is estimated that adolescents (ages 13
to 17) account for up to one-fifth of all rapes and
one half of all cases of child molestation
committed each year.
The majority of juvenile sex offenders desist; a
subgroup continue to commit sex crimes as adults
Policy Problem: heterogeneity of sex offenders-We
need to distinguish different types of sex offenders
when developing new strategies.
Soft Technology Applications
 The
use of “profiling” to prevent sex crime
 Can
we accurately predict who will
become sex offenders?
 Is
there a link between early victimization
and later offending in terms of sex crime?
 Sex
Offender prediction and the false
positives problem
Soft Technology Applications
 Geographic Residency Restrictions
 Map location of schools, parks, libraries
 Use Mapping technology to create
restriction zones
 Use EM technology to monitor sex
offender movements and identify any
violations
 Real time response to violations via police,
probation, parole, and/or private sector
 Problem: Sex offending rarely occurs in
public places
Soft Technology Application
 Background
Checks on all volunteers in
schools, youth sports, and all jobs involving
minors.
 Blanket restrictions on all convicted sex
offenders
 Issues to Consider:
 Role of private sector in data
management, cost of system integration
Risk Assessment Tools
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RRASOR. The Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual
Offense Recidivism (RRASOR) is brief and
simple to use; it consists of only four variables,
all of which can be easily retrieved from
official records (Hanson, 1997). These four
factors – previous sexual offenses, extrafamilial victims, offender age under 25, and
male child victims – were based on research
that demonstrated a strong correlation
between these factors and the risk of reoffending.
Risk Instruments
 Static-99
considers a range of additional
factors, including sexual deviance, types
of available victims, persistence, and
pattern of antisocial behaviors (Hanson &
Thornton, 1999; Hanson & Thornton, 2000).
 In a comparative review, the Static-99
added to the predictive accuracy of the
RRASOR in the measurement of long-term
risk potential (Hanson & Thornton, 2000).
Crime Prevention
 Six
Social-Engineering Strategies
 Target Removal
 Target Devaluation
 Target Insulation
 Offender Incapacitation
 Offender Exclusion
 Offense, Offender, and Target
Identification
Target Removal
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The logic of prevention is clearest and most
effective when a target is removed.
Something that is not there cannot be taken.
Some Examples:
The move toward a cashless society is one
example of target removal.
Furniture built in to the wall cannot be stolen,
and that bolted or welded to the floor is
unlikely to be.
A number of urban schools have created
dress codes banning signs of gang affiliation
and expensive clothes and jewelry
Target Devaluation
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The goal of target devaluation is to reduce or
eliminate the value of a potential target to anyone
but authorized users.
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Examples of devalued targets include products that
self-destruct (some car radios when tampered with)
or that leave dear proof of theft (exploding red dye
packs that stain money taken in bank robberies).
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There is a device that, via cellular phone, can
remotely cut off the engine of a stolen car. Another
system, called Auto Avenger, is triggered if the door
is opened while the engine is running. If not
disengaged by a hidden switch, the engine will shut
down after a few minutes and the system tells the
thief he has fifteen seconds to get out or face a
50,000-volt shock.
Target Insulation
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Target insulation is probably among the oldest
of techniques for preventing violations
We can separate perimeter-maintaining
strategies such as fences, walls, moats,
guards, and guard dogs from more specific
protections such as safes, chastity belts, and
placing goods in locked cases, chaining them
to immovable objects, and hiding them.
"Skywalks" linking downtown buildings shield
their occupants from life on the street.
Offender Incapacitation
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Offender incapacitation renders the
potential offender harmless.
There are a variety of "immobilizers,"
"restrainers," and "containers" that seek to
prevent violations by weakening the potential
offender's will or ability to commit the offense.
psychosurgery for the violent, literal or
chemical castration for sex offenders, and the
practice in some Middle Eastern countries of
cutting off the hands of pickpockets.
Excessively aggressive behavior may be
treated with tranquilizers. Drugs such as DepoProvera may be used to reduce the sex drive.
Offender Exclusion
 offender
exclusion is the opposite of
target insulation. The offender, rather
than the potential target, is restricted.
 In short, the goal of offender exclusion
is to keep potential offenders away
from persons or environments that may
tempt them to commit violations.
 Capital
punishment is the most
extreme form of this strategy.
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Examples of Offender
Exclusion
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Other examples are exile, prison, curfews, and
mobility restrictions (such as house arrests or
restraining orders).
At the group level, the creation of red light and
drug districts away from residential areas (as in
Amsterdam and Zurich) is also based on the idea
of exclusion.
Electronic location devices have recently made
individual exclusion easier.
the ultimate exclusion may be genetic screening:
persons believed to have a biological
predisposition to undesirable behavior simply
never appear-they aren't born. This screening
could be voluntary or mandatory.
Offense, Offender, and Target
Identification
 The
goal of identification is to document
the occurrence of the violation and
identify or even trap the violator.
 Various sensors and alarms fit here.
 Another expanding area involves
immobilization or seizure strategies.
 One system involves a super-glue that
spreads onto the floor after an explosion.
Persons may be able to get into a
building, but the human flypaper makes it
impossible for them to get out.
Other Examples of
Identification Strategies
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A more general form of identification is the stigmatic
mark of the "scarlet letter," which gives evidence of
past violations.
In some jurisdictions convicted drunk drivers must
have special identifying license plates or signs on
their cars. The requirement that individuals carry their
records, or that these be checked, is equivalent.
In some jurisdictions sex offenders are required to
take out newspaper ads accompanied by
photographs with warnings that they have been
convicted of particular crimes; or their pictures may
be prominently displayed around playgrounds.
There is a proposal to electrically shock those under
house arrest if they attempt to leave and, if they
succeed in leaving, to increase the voltage the
farther they stray